NixTrader for R12 – Byes II

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Byes II – that’s roman numerals, so you know it’s a big deal.   One bye round down, 2 to go.  Updated spreadsheet, updated data – let’s get into it.

Byes I review

Most readers of this site seem pretty happy with their results from last week.  I’ve seen a few comments suggesting byes have become too easy.  However, remember you are the top end of DT.  The Bye rules this year allow good planners to do  well, without traumatising novice players.

I only scored 1,638 – a bad score when I had 19 starters, down to 18 after JJK withdrawal.  I was outscored by lots of coaches with 2 donuts.  My plans were fine, I just had a big block of players who got nowhere near their averages.  I was surprised by the disappearance of both my J*Kennedys, but this was explained on Monday evening by a 4 Corners program covering a push for reducing gun control in Australia.

But enough about me.  The reason I am telling you this is because I still got a top 18% weekly score.  This means the majority of coaches scored a lot lower than my crap score; so let’s be a bit cautious about suggesting DT is too easy.  The rules aren’t made only for readers of this site.

A few more facts:

  • average player score was 71.3 – second highest for the year,
  • teams scored 43 points more than average,
  • this pushed out the highest rate of 100s for the year 4.2 per team (1 whole 100 more than the average of 3.1).
  • and finally the high scoring over last 3 rounds caused magic number to rise slightly (resulting in larger than expected price movements).

So if they planned well for R11, most coaches also benefited from unusually high scoring and price movements.

What happens next?

The majority of coaches reading this will be pretty confident this round.  The right column in the table below shows the proportion of overall player selections in DT teams, for each AFL team.   The group of teams with R12 byes are only 29.9% of all selections – so most coaches will have plenty of players available this round.  Although we should not expect last week’s record player scores to be repeated.

R12 Lead up Games

Provided match committees don’t go rogue and throw up a lot of team carnage, most coaches will be able to make 2 trades of their choice this week.  If you are shopping for players with particular byes, the above table might help by showing which teams have better runs in short term.  In a 44 trade environment, I don’t see much benefit in looking beyond the next 5 rounds when trading in premiums.

Strategy for Round 12

The preceding table also confirms what most of us know already, that many coaches will find R13 difficult (37.3% of all selections have R13 bye).  So trades this week should also have R13 in mind.

I’ve seen a few comments this week questioning whether cash or points or non-donuts are more important.  The trade evaluation part of the NixTrader spreadsheet automatically correlates cash and points and makes sure your trades are generating enough cash or enough points to be the best trade pair.

My strategy for R12 will be:

  • After team announcements – if any of the players I was relying on for R12 are not picked, replace them (with hopefully better players) while maintaining bye structure.
  • If I have more than 20 available for R12, prioritise trades for R13.
  • Upgade Evans to best available R11 bye mid – I’ve had Barlow since R2, so maybe Cornes, Griffin or SMitchell.
  • Continue with my 3 point plan for picking the best rookies – read @JeppaDT’s article Jeppa’s Juniors Wednesday, then read it again Thursday, and finally read it again on Friday.
    • I got Martin for R11, at this stage I plan to pick up Nicholls (for R12), Mitchell (for R13) and Daniher (for R14).

NixTrader Spreadsheet

Only 1 minor change this week.

  • My Team in the Bye Rounds.  The font colour of each player’s name now changes depending on their bye – green for bye in R11, blue for R12 bye, and magenta for R13 bye.

 

Here is link to download spreadsheet (Excel2007) – NixTrader2013 R12 pub

 

Reminders from previous weeks:

  • The team of the current overall leader is in NixTrader spreadsheet when you download it.  You can look at this team to see if you can learn anything from it, before replacing it with your own team.
  • If you used the spreadsheet from previous rounds, you can just select your blocks of players’ names from there and copy and paste them into this round’s spreadsheet.
  • Yellow shaded cells.  You will notice some yellow shaded cells in the columns where you enter scores for R12 and R13.  These indicate that player has a bye in that round.  The obvious thing for you to do is put an ‘n’ to stop his price and averages changing.  However, if you want you can leave it to approximate his next round outcome.
  • My Team in the Bye Rounds:  The table picks up the players from MyTeam in the first tab.  So if you want to make any player changes you have to do it on the first tab, and this will change all 3 bye teams.
    • There is a green section at the bottom where you can write in your own plans for each bye round, and add or subtract players etc.  You can then copy this whole section to next week’s spreadsheet and keep updating your plans.
    • There is a green column in each of the bye rounds to give you more control of your team total and onfield player count.
    • Select “LTI/Low JS” if you think one of your players is likely to be out for that round.
    • Select “Can DPP” if you can bring a benched player onto the field using DPP.  This will make their score count (only works if player is already listed as “emg”).
  • I’m stalking the watchlist allows you to add players in groups according to their bye round.
  • After lockout, you can also use NixTrader to start planning for next week.  Just enter your players’ actual scores in the column for the current round to update your watchlist or trades.
  • Younglings:  if you don’t have Excel2007 software on your device you can still download the file, put it on a usb stick and ask around to find someone with Excel2007 software and ask to borrow their computer for an hour or so.
  • Mac users have reported Brandon Ellis (Richmond) is placed as an Adelaide player in bye and draw tables.  This doesn’t occur in Windows Excel.  Mac users should be aware of this if you add Brandon Ellis to your spreadsheet.

Any comments, questions or suggestions please post below or tweet to @NixTrader. Post below how your bye preparations are going and your average score forecast, this might be useful for other coaches. Also post if you think an otherwise good trade is being assessed badly by the formulas.

————————– notes below are mostly the same each week ——————————————-

Brief instructions:

  • You only have to enter information into the green cells, the other cells are protected to prevent any errors.
  • Confirm or change Magic Number estimate for the end of next two rounds.  I have put in values for MN, but if you think you know enough about MN to prefer other numbers you can change them.
  • Enter your players using the drop down menu.  In the menu only the players who fit that position are named in full, other players are reduced to 3 letters.  If you used the spreadsheet from previous rounds you should be able to select and copy groups of players from there into this spreadsheet.
  • For each player in your team data is pulled up automatically.
  • A projection for that player headed “Points Proj.”.  This is used as default in the calculations.  If a player has played more than 3 games this is their current average; if less than 3 games the projection is calculated from their starting price.
  • There are 2 green cells to enter the actual scores (or your estimates) for your players for the next 2 rounds.  Based on these scores the last other columns calculate the averages, BEs, price change and new prices after the rounds.
  • If you leave any cell blank, the calculation assumes the player gets their 2013 base score for that round – i.e. the score in column headed “Points Proj.” is used as default in the calculations.
  • The player has to play 3 games for their price to change, so if the players miss games their price change won’t happen until after they play 3 games.
  • If one of your players misses a round, put an “n” in the green cell for that round.  The calculations for the next round will then update to take account of this.
  • There is a section to show the next 5 teams that player will face.  At the right of these 5 teams there are 4 percentages.  These show the variation in points and 100 scores that are predicted to come from playing that string of teams, over the next 3 and 5 weeks.  Percentages are based on the number of points and 100s each team has conceded so far this season.  Positive percentage says this run of teams is expected to concede more points and hundreds than average; negative percentage says these teams are likely to concede less points and hundreds than average.

FAQ:

  • Why are these calculations different to other published BEs and valuations?
    • Everyone’s calculations depend on their assumptions about Magic Number, projections of future scores and how they round averages and values.  This spreadsheet should replicate any other published calculations if you make the same projections, including changing the magic number.  However, this spreadsheet is unique in that it allows you to change the estimates to do your own analysis.
  • Tech talk:
    • You need a device and software that supports microsoft excel 2007 spreadsheets to be able to open and use the spreadsheet.  It won’t open on mobiles or tablets unless you have software or apps that support excel files.
    • Even if you have other software that claims to support Excel files, the file still might not work properly, as every excel formula might not be supported.  This current file uses array formulas, I expect many non-excel spreadsheets won’t support array formulas, despite supporting other excel like functions.
    • The file will not operate fully in either Google docs or Skydrive Excel web app.
    • Mac users report that some of the team / bye data for Brandon Ellis is wrong.  This didn’t occur on Windows / PC and was only reported on a Mac.  Be aware of this if you are on a Mac and looking at Brandon Ellis in the spreadsheet.

7 Comments

  • Cheers for the great work on this again. First time i actually noticed though that when you first open up the spreadsheet that the players already there was the overalls leaders team! Learn something new everyday I guess:) Saying that though, quite surprised that there team has pretty much 7 premium forwards? Guess that’s always a good back up if one of their other forwards is a late withdrawl:)

  • That shows my team halfway through my bye plan so it looks a little odd.

    Im bringing in a premo Def this week, premo ruc next week and a premo mid in rnd 14 giving me a complete team with JJK F7, Terlich D7, Mitchell M9 and Nicholls R3 with gives me pretty solid cover for any lines I think.

    Im bringing in the premo mid last so that I can pick a player from any round plus I think the thommy gun can fill in at m8 for a week.

  • Thanks again Nix, awesome work!

    One question:

    You said when bringing premiums in you don’t look further than 5 weeks. If I’m focused solely on winning my leagues so I can be an arse & brag to my mates, would you still only focus on upcoming weeks? I’m confident I’ll win enough games to keep me in the top 4, so I’ve been choosing my premiums based on their DT finals run… so I want Fremantle boys!

    My thinking is we’re still gonna get injuries & rested players, so I want to keep my trades for those. Stupid?

    • Thanks Nick,

      I think it’s just a matter of emphasis. I wouldn’t be keen to bring in any premiums who weren’t at least a possibility for my finals team. But after round 13 (end Byes), we will still have 12 trades left to start of finals and then 2 trades a week in the byes. So there will still be opportunity to change more than half our teams.

      • Crap, that’s a lot of trades – I hadn’t thought too much about that.

        I’m torn: I love having the 2 trades per week, but it feels like it takes a bit of the strategy out of the game when everyone bar ghost ships will have teams full of premiums by the finals…

        Cannot state enough how much I love your Trader…

        • Looking forward it always seems like we have a lot of trades. But every week we always find 3 or more trades we want to do.

          I think we got a bit lucky with a new batch of rookies that will give most people a bit more cash.

          I think the leagues are going to be a lot more interesting this year with closer teams. It’s going to take strategy to win finals matches.