Tbetta’s Bullets: Round 11

tbetta_bullets

  • MBRs: Must-Buy Rookies

Finally, the first of the dreaded Bye are upon us! Like removing sports strapping around a particularly hairy ankle, or breaking the unpleasant news of a nasty STD to those lucky ladies/fellas – it’s best to get it over with as soon as possible. We can see the light at the end of the tunnel, and I can’t wait to get there – imagine a time where the majority of your players take to the field, a time where you never have to worry about “which Bye round…” when upgrading, a time where you don’t have to rely on bloody Will Sierakowski to field a full side!

The way the cookie crumbled, your fortunes in Round 11 were largely influenced by your trading strategy last week. Par was around 1850, all things considered – Let’s see how your side fared in the first of the Bye weeks:

The HibernatorThe Hibernator

This is the coach who banked the 18 or 19 players they had named to play in Round 11, and started preparing for Rounds 12 and 13 ahead of schedule. The idea here was that you might sacrifice a few points (by not being able to drop off your worst score or two) to prevent a donut in the future, which would theoretically save you more points. If you read last week’s Bullets, you’d have guessed that I was a fan of this tactic, and I actually planned to apply it in the form of Lonergan –> Hrovat myself.

Verdict: Fail. Getting Hrovat (or jumping on Barlow/S.Mitchell/Cotchin etc. early) would have likely meant ignoring Tom Mitchell initially, coasting you a truckload of points. Even worse, it probably resulted in playing just 16 or 17 this week, as popular squad members Daw and JJK were late withdrawals. Not a bad strategy, just pure rotten luck. The positive news here is that this coach likely has plenty of cash and flexibility to make up for it over the next two bye weeks.

The OvertakerThe Overtaker

This is the coach that chose to upgrade in Round 11 to get a leg-up on the majority his fellow competitors, possibly looking to make full use of an already-burgeoning bankroll. Stanton (52) was a very popular inclusion based on blistering recent form and attractive BE.

Verdict: Fail. Well, bringing in someone other than Stanton (Ablett, Swan, Jack, Enright, Kreuzer, etc.) probably scrapes you a pass mark, but it also meant missing out on at least two of Martin (83), Nicholls (113) and T. Mitchell (144) and their massive Round 11 totals for a fraction of the price.

The DowngraderThe Downgrader

This is the coach with tighter cheeks than a drug-smuggler at airport screening, the cash-saving team manager who brought in two rookies this week with a view to go bang-bang over the next fortnight. For most, this meant snapping up a pair of Martin, Nicholls, T. Mitchell or Daniher for non-playing cash cows like Rowe, Lonergan, Blicavs or Mayes, leaving more than $300k in the coffers in many cases.

Verdict: A+. Congratulations, you chose Door 3! This is where the real prizes were, the $100k-or-so wunderkinds who topped up your weekly score as well as your bank account. On top of your swift rise up the rankings, you now have the capital that grants maximum flexibility with your Round 12 trades. Kudos!

 

  • Polling and Trolling

Polling R11

3. Titch and Tickles

As I mentioned earlier, the ‘downgrades of doom’ were the surprise heroes this week; not only freeing up wads of cash for future expenditure, but getting the job done in the meantime. Let’s get this straight – the 144 points from Tom Mitchell and 113 points from Tom Nicholls were not only the best rookies scores this week, but features in the highest totals we’ve seen from our basement-priced gems all year – and they did it in their second games of the year, in the midst of the MBRs. Words can’t adequately describe the impeccable timing of this pair, so consider Titch and Tickles the Vin Diesel and Michelle Rodriguez of the Fast and Furious 6 trailer –  I mean, honestly, I don’t know which is less believable – being flung from speeding tank then being sensationally caught in mid-air by a human tank, or two rookies combining for 259 points the week you bring them in.

2. Gibbs (123)

Over 51% of sides boasted Carlton star Bryce Gibbs at the beginning of the season, and in my opinion, he was a must-have at his price and positional eligibility. However, a massive chunk of those coaches gave up on him through his hamstring troubles, dropping his ownership to just 29% competition-wide coming into Round 11. I’m not sure who wins the ‘Hold vs Fold’ argument in a big-picture sense here, but I can certainly confirm that as a humble Gibbs owner, I’m ecstatic with his 100 ppg average since his return from injury; topped off by the 26-touch, 9-tackle showing he gave on Friday night, which culminated in a timely 123-point score. Getting Gibbs back in has to be a priority for coaches post-bye, especially with other ‘Premium’ options like Birchall, Hartlett and Scotland not living up to their billing thus far.

1. S. Selwood (123)

I’m sure I’m not the only coach who seems to fixate on the lesser scores from his players, and lets it blur the overall picture. The truth is, as a Scooter owner, I’ve been as critical of his few failings to the point that I’ve weirdly overlooked what can only be described as a break-out year. Yes, the four scores below 90 (71, 87 ,71 and 81) were difficult to stomach at the time, but they were offset by his six scores of 119 or more – that’s more than Swan (5 times), and second only to Ablett (7 times). The catalyst for his success this season (ranked 5th by average so far) should come as no surprise – he’s a hugger, this kid. In the six games this season where he’s notched at least 8 tackles, he’s topped the ton; but on the five occasions where he didn’t, four were sub-90 totals. Keep tacklin’ son!

Honourable Mentions: O’Keefe (145), J. Selwood (132), K. Jack (130), Douglas (123), Montagna (113), J. Thomas (111), Macaffer (102), Kreuzer (101), Ball (100), Naitanui (98),  O’Meara (89), K. Martin (83), Thurlow (81).

 

Trolling R11

3. JJK (feat. Daw)

Many coaches would have been pretty chuffed waltzing into the first Bye round with 19 players, and rightly so – fielding a team each week of the MBR’s will be an effort for most. Unfortunately, this contention may have contributed to a smattering of forced donuts this week, as both Josh J. Kennedy (calf) and Majak Daw (phobia of rain) were withdrawn post-lockout. For many coaches, a donut in this fashion would have immediately put their side 52 (Stanton) to 76 (Matt Jones) points behind their H2H League opponents as well as the rest of the competition, and that head-start is very difficult to erase once it’s conceded.

2. Stanton (52)

There was a fair bit of conjecture during the week that Stanton should earn ‘Pig’ status, based on his exuberant playing-style and recent back-to-back scores of 144 and 149. Sure, he has certain pig-like qualities – the incessant desire for the low-intensity footy, the gorging of points in red-time, the excessive point totals. But let’s not forget the crucial quality that separates Swan from wannabes like Stanton – he never puts in a bad score. Ever.

It’s been a massive 88 games since Swanny posted a score below 80 (79 in Round 7, 2009); Stanton has already dropped below that figure 3 times from 10 games this season! Oh, and the last time Swan scored as little as 52 points, as Stants did with a hard tag this weekend? A massive 123 games ago, in Round 16 of 2007.

Introducing Brent Stanton – not a pig. Just a very taggable prick of a player to own.

1. Robinson (40)

Just when you thought that Robinson had turned a corner – he was averaging 91.6 in the five games leading into Round 11 after a very slow start to 2013 – he dishes up another dirty total. 40 points is all the Kamikaze Kid managed in 3Q playing predominantly as a forward, which was enough for Malthouse to red vest him. With a season average of just 75.2 DT, there’s no way we can continue to class Robbo as a ‘Premium’ forward going forward.

Dishonourable Mentions: Whitfield (16), Webster (34), Dixon (37), A.Goodes (46), Kerridge (47), Kommer (49), Hibberd (55), J. Watson (77).

 

  • Trade Station

Normally I like to take a step back and take a meta approach to DT at some point in this article, but who am I kidding – It’s hard to look weeks into the future when we have a bounty of immediate concerns that need addressing! And right now, that’s how best to use our 2 trades this week.

With most DTer’s piggy banks overflowing, the Round 11 ‘Premium’ class will be a massive focus area, and rightly so. Trading out a R12-bye cash-cow (such as M. Jones, Evans, Terlich, Daw, Blicavs, Rampe) for a R11 Premium is about as close and you can to the perfect strategic trade; so what’s on offer? I’ll give you my Top 3, looking at it from a variety of perspectives – don’t forget to let us know who you’ve got on the watchlist in the comments below!

TS BirchallBest for: Value

1. Birchall ($382,700 DEF, 89.3avg)

At under $400k, Birchall is an absolute steal –you only have to look at what he produced in the first four rounds (119 average) to see what he can do when the planets align. Unfortunately, he copped the dreaded forward tag after that as a result, which is about as attractive as thrush to a rebounding defender. Despite this, I’m still optimistic that Birch can elevate himself back up to the 85-95 average range post-bye. A little rest, a game-plan tinkering by the Hawks’ coaching staff, and boom – instant Premo, for the price of one Terlich plus change.

2. Franklin ($383,300 FWD, 79.5avg)

Each week I saw Franklin sitting there all cheap, batting those eyelids and flaunting those long legs, and finally he dipped low enough to become irresistible – that figure was around $380k for me. I don’t have to remind you that he’s averaged at least 99 for the past three seasons running for you to recognise a bargain, so if you’re up for the Buddywood rollercoaster, now’s the time to buy a ticket.

3. Maric ($363,200, RUC, 75.4 avg)

With Maric, it could well be a case of “he’s cheap for a reason”, in the same way that Charlie Sheen always portrays sex-addicted alcoholics named Charlie. But then again, maybe he’s been struggling with that ankle niggle for the past few weeks, and the week of rest will do him a world of good? If you still have Leuenberger and don’t have the cash for someone like Minson or Roughead, it could be worth taking a punt on the Mullet – the well-groomed man-mountain who averaged 98.1 DT points per game in 2012.

TS BarlowBest for: Reliability

1. Barlow ($535,300 MID, 108.1avg)

Barlow is the most expensive Round 11 gun on offer – and for good reason, seeing as he averages the 7th most DT per game this season. What I love most about Mick is not just his impressive ceiling (4 scores of 120+ this year), but his excellent basement scoring – 81 is his lowest from 11 games this year, and he has just two scores under 90. Like Ablett’s bi-weekly dome wax, Barlow pumps out DT points like clockwork. My all-time favourite Barlow stat – he has the 2nd-highest Dream Team average of any player ever (since stats were consistently recorded in 1974, minimum 50 games), a massive 100.3 points per game over his career!

2. Sam Mitchell ($472,300 MID, 100.0avg)

In my eyes, everyone deserves one game off, and that’s what Mitchell’s 66 against the Demons in Round 10 must have been. Remove that, and old Chicken Schnitzel has been going at a very under-the-radar 103.8 ppg in 2013. The most pleasing aspect is that he had a basement score of just 88 up until that point – incredible consistency from one of the stalwarts of the fantasy world. I don’t think he has the same ceiling as he used to, and just the one total exceeding 111 this season probably attests to that; however, if you’re after a reliable 95 week-in week-out, Mitchell’s your man.

3. Dustin Martin ($473,300 MID/FWD, 98.1avg)

Besides some alarming neck tattoos and that piranha haircut, Dusty’s crux has always been his consistency, in particular his ability to stay influential for the whole 80 minutes. As far as I’m concerned, after a shaky start to the year, he’s addressed that issue this season. His last six games coming into the bye garnered a mean score of 101.3 points, which makes him my first-choice forward upgrade this week.

TS CotchinBest for: Risk vs Reward

1. Cotchin ($442,700 MID, 94.33avg)

Cotchin almost makes the ‘Value’ section just on principal, because we saw last season what he’s capable of – his average of 122.5 in the last 8 games of 2012 was incredible. A $442,700 price-tag has me reaching for the trade icon, but a glance at his recent totals (84, 62, 92, 99 and 70) is a bigger turn-off than Malthouse’s WIggle skivvy. It’s worth noting that Cotch was definitely dealing with knee soreness pre-bye, so it’s not outrageous to feel optimistic of a resurgence from Round 12 onwards – he’s a bargain at sub-$450k if that eventuates, but I think I need to see a few tons before I consider walking the plank.

2. Jack Redden ($480,800 MID, 95.8 avg)

Redden wouldn’t be on too many trade-ars at the moment, so it’s a great opportunity to pick up a point of difference in your midfield. Like Adam Goodes, Redden is a massive Back 9 specialist; In 2011, he averaged 103 in the first seven games, then 112 in the remaining fifteen. Same trend in 2012; 85 average in first five, 108 average over the next seventeen games. So what about 2013? He averaged 90.4 over the first seven games, and 108.3 over the next three – he’s just getting started, ladies and gentleman!

3. Griffen ($488,100 MID, 105.5 avg)

I picked Griffen in my Draft side last season, and despite his eyes being creepily close together, I was very happy to have him there. The big knock on Griffen has always been the wide range of scores he can produce, evident already this season with a low of 74 and a ceiling of 166 – the latter coming in his most recent outing. The problem is that he always attracts the first tag, so his output will likely remain sinusoidal for the foreseeable future. He is an excellent point of difference however, and as he’s been on the brink of the elite for a while now – is 2013 where it finally comes together, much like his eyes seem to want to?

TS BoydBest for: Avoiding

1. Boyd ($481,100 MID, 97.0 avg)

As much as I love Boyd, I can’t touch him again anytime soon. I have this new rule at Tbetta Than You called the ‘Waters Clause’, which basically states that if you bring in a player coming off a calf injury, you may as well take a steaming iron to the groin. It’s a typical old man injury, so while it’s possible that he can come back and average 105+ for the rest of the year… why take the chance? Definitely more reliable options out there… It’s also probably worth mentioning the Youth Policy is well and truly in affect at the Kennel, and one wonders whether Boyd has already been the victim if the strategy?

2. Kane Cornes ($494,700 MID, 111.7 avg)

“Ooooh, look at that sexy average”, I hear you say. “111.7 per game, how foxy…” escapes your lips as you hover over his square jaw in the Trade Wizard. Abort, and reconsider! Do you really see Cornes being a top 8 midfielder for the rest of the season?! Really?! I don’t. I could be wrong, but the numbers don’t often whisper sweet-nothings to us for no reason. Here’s my favourite Kornes stat: Average when Port Adelaide wins: 123.8 DT. Average when Port Adelaide loses: 99.6. I don’t see the Power winning too many games from here on, do you?

3. Deledio ($474,200 MID, 95.6 avg)

One word: Front-runner. Does that count, or is that two words? A compound word? Anyway, the point is that Deledio plain stinks against quality sides, and particularly with the tag. Exhibition A: Deledio’s opponents from his three biggest scores this year:  Bulldogs (135), Port (134) and Melbourne (124). Exhibition B: Scores against Top 7 sides: Carlton (78), Collingwood (80), Fremantle (83), Geelong (63) and Essendon (53). Yuck.

 

  • Tbetta’s Tweets

T11 Zorko

Mate, you couldn’t pay me to bring in Zorko this week… Firstly, he has a BE of 114, but mostly, he’s way too inconsistent. If you look at his totals this year, he’s only scored within 20 points of his previous score once!

In saying that, Zorko is the kind of fallen Premium I’ll be looking at once my team is chuck full of Premiums. It looks like many teams will be ‘complete’ by about Round 15 or 16, leaving 6 or so weeks of luxury trades. The first thing I’ll be doing is looking for fallen Premium Mid/Fwd cover, so if I get ravaged by injury/suspension/resting in any one line on any one week (ie. where two trades wonit suffice – think Backpocalypse earlier in the season), I’ll still be able to field a strong outfit.

T11 Duffield

Definitely not – If I had Terlich and already owned Birchall (quite a few are in this position, I believe), then Duffield would be towards the top of my list. I’m a proud Duffy owner in my Draft league this season, so I’ve obviously kept a close eye on him. He’s actually a Top 6 defender over the past 8 rounds, and producing those sorts of numbers over that large a sample size indicates that he’s the real deal.

As for Fremantle’s fixture, I covered their amazing 2nd half draw in my Fixture Study article – you’ll notice that Freo are one of the top three sides to upgrade to in terms of fixture strength, plus they have a cakewalk during the Finals. Like Barlow, jumping on Duffield would be a great tactical trade.

T11 Nicholls

Very tough query! This is more of a philosophical question – do we miss a cash cow over the MBR’s to save a donut? Or to boil it down to its core theme, Cash vs Points?

That’s a question that doesn’t have a clear answer, and I leave it to personal preference. I can only tell you what I would do here, and that would be to do whatever it takes to avoid a donut over the MBRs, short of trading out a Premium.

T11 Hrovat-Martin

I had multiple tweets asking this, in essence – who to grab out of Martin and Hrovat? To me, this has a clear answer – Hrovat, assuming that’s he’s named on Thursday, as he should be.

While he hasn’t scored as prolifically as K-Mart thus far, I feel Hrovat has stronger job security within the Bulldogs succession plan. Martin, however, is another of those small midfielder clones at Collingwood, very similar to Dwyer/J.Thomas/Kennedy/Elliot/Williams in both stature and role, and as a result, is never truly safe in that side.

Of course, the mitigating factor for me in the end is that we get Hrovat after his bye, while grabbing Martin on the bubble will mean going another player short in the midfield in Round 13 – something that most sides won’t be able to weather without negative consequences. For that reason, I’m more than happy (and extremely likely) to miss the K-Mart cash-cow boat – this isn’t Pokemon, you simply can’t catch them all.

T11 Mitchell Jeager

Okay firstly, Tom Mitchell at M8? Yes… For the meantime. We’ve all heard the Beau Muston cautionary tales, so to back him in as a starter for the rest of the year is probably a bit much – let’s not forget that he hasn’t even played two full games of AFL yet! I’d still be looking to bring in an 8th Premium Midfielder, even if that pushes Titch to M9. Can never have too much cover!

For this reason, I think we have to cash in on O’Meara next week. I had the same thought – the jet hasn’t scored less than 82 in seven weeks, for an average of 93.9 in that time! That is simply insane for an 18 year old. But if we’re all going to get on Titch (you’d be going full retard if you didn’t, let’s be honest) then there’s no point having one of those young guns on the bench – much better to take full advantage of Jaeger’s ~$300k profit and bringing in a Super Premium over the next fortnight.

 

  • Tbetta Than You

Over these MBR weeks there will be a quick note about my squad, hopefully to give an example of the types of trades you should be making, or at least considering, during the Byes. I posted my pre-trades R11 side last week, so you’ll notice that the trades I made last round were:

TTY R11 post trades

I was able to trade Lonergan to Daniher (R13 bye) via Mayes DPP, and I did this for a couple of reasons. Firstly, it ridded me of a tri-bye player in Lonergan (ruled out of the MBRs) for someone who would at least play two of the three. Secondly, it exported an R13 Mid, which I was extremely heavy on; and lastly, even though Daniher has the R13 bye, the only other R13 Forward I had was Macaffer, so in theory I may have had to bench a starting player in my forward line that week. Overall, very happy with this swap – earnt myself some pocket money and Daniher ultimately boosted my score by 60 points, with the JJK late withdrawal meaning I just fielded the bare 18.

Rowe to Nicholls also worked perfectly, because it allowed me to bench Daw (who was dropped anyway), and play a full ruck line each week of the MBRs – I didn’t expect his 113 points though, but I’ll take it! That gave me 1929 in total for the round.

TTY R12 pre-trades

Trading this week: Looking at Matt Jones –> Hrovat… Then I have a few options for the 2nd trade, which will be dependent on unforeseen ‘Thursday Teams’ carnage! However, Mayes –> Barlow is a distinct possibility, as is Mayes –> Dustin Martin if I decide a forward is more advantageous in the long run, possibly allowing me to start Titch from Round 13 onwards.

What trades would you make with that side? Let us know in the comments! Cheers for reading my Round 11 thesis – good luck for the 2nd MBR!

78 Comments

  • Awesome work as usual Tbetta. Is this an extract from your PhD, and when will you join Albert Lord in completing your Doctorate?

    Thanks especially for the trade station chapter – very useful.

    It required an enormous degree of self-discipline to be The Downgrader (oh how I wanted to upgrade) this week, only to have JJK ruin my good work on Sunday, leaving me (like a lot of coaches) high and dry on 17 scoring players.

    If you’re still up, can you please give me your learned opinion on Living The Dream and my (Pigs in Space) tweet? At the half way mark, how far back is too far to win the $$$?

    • Cheers mate.

      “Pigs in Space ranked 70th overall; 330pts off the pace. Too far back?”

      Absolutely not! 330 pts is nothing over the course of half a season – just look at Roy’s meteoric rise over the past month! Great ranking, stick with it mate.

  • Thanks mate. Great article as awlays. I would get Barlow in this week over Dusty, think Dusty has a BE of 132 which should see him drop 10k next week.

    I definitely had a FMDT week last week with JPK/Daw late outs and Stanton in, though at least i got Gibbs in which worked well. Still ranking dropped from 6k to 9k which sucks….Going Daw to Nichols and Terlich to Barlow this week, Titchell in next week and hopefully Omeara to a Jack or similar

    • I feel you on Dusty’s BE, but it’s at that point where I don’t mind paying a little extra to get in the best players – this is one reason why I didn’t mention any breakevens in the Trade Station section. It’s all about current price and projected season average for me right now – can’t be too picky about timing with the byes!

      In saying that, Barlow is firming as my preferred choice anyway.

    • I agree that Barlow is generally preferable to Martin, but unfortunatley it just doesn’t work for me. Before trades I’ve got a Rd 12 bye player on the ground in backs, fwds, and ruck, so want to structure my trades to get one of them onto the bench. That means either JJK->Daniher and Moloney->Barlow or M Jones->Hrovat and Moloney->D Martin (DPP with Bartel or Johnson). I prefer Hrovat to Daniher and offloading JJK messes up my fwd structure for future rounds. So D Martin wins for my particular predicament.

  • Great article as always Tbetta. I was a bit in the Overtaker/Downgrader category by bringing in Ball and Nicholls – both worked out well. A bit in each of the Polling/Trolling with Nicholls/Gibbs and then JJK.

    The only point of conflict I have is recommending the Birchall>Terlich trade this week. Birchall has a very high BE and Terlich is out – wait one more week and their price will be almost equal – unless of course you have no other trades to do and you want that extra body on the field.

    • I agree with you that people should wait a week for Birchall and the Terlich swap. Personally I do not have Hanley so I am waiting for the right time to pounce and pick up a very cheap Hanley.

    • Terlich out is one trade I would DEFINITELY be pulling this week, especially if you are as light on with R12 rookies like myself – M. Jones, Thurlow (not matured yet) and Daw.vWhether that’s for Birchall, or someone like Duffield is up to you.

      The only situation in which I’d hold Terlich is if you’ll still field 6 defenders without him, and you have other R12 rookies or tri-bye players to move on ahead of him.

      • I’m light on R12 rooks and will only be fielding 5 down back, but am not offloading Terlich this week. While it was my first thought, I’m actually reasonably happy with my back 6 at them moment (Goddard, Heppell, Hanley, Malceski, Ellis, Vlastuin) and my first choice for an extra body would be Gibbs, which is not a great trade this week. So I looked for better options for an upgrade. I’ve worked out a DPP trade to offload Jones->D Martin instead. So, unless you can find fault with my strategy, I’d say the definitely is a bit strong.

        • Great article by the way. There’s a lot of great info there. Not to mention a heap of work. Cheers!

  • Great article tBetta.
    Unfortunately I took it in the tailpipe last week with a couple of donuts (thanks Sam Dwyer) – speaking of which does anyone know what’s going on with him?
    Pleased to hear the comments on the Duffman as I got him in yesterday and I will probably be second guessing myself all week.
    Just out of interest at what point should we be putting the cue in the rack regarding overall? I dropped 1500 places to 3,395 last week and I think it’s time to concentrate on cash leagues :(

    • Never give up Ian. The bye rounds are going to see people bouncing all over the place in rankings.

    • 3,395 is a good ranking so don’t be worried about that but I’d advise the Duffman he is looking so good in that freo side racking up easy possessions.

    • Dwyer is still out with a groin issue apparently. Think he is unlikely to be played this week as well too/

      • with Collingwood bye next weekend I reckon they will be very cautious with him and give him the extra 2 weeks to recover… especially considering the guys filling his spot (Martin, Thomas, Kennedy, etc) are holding their own

  • Thank you Tbetta sunning article and not for the first time ;)

  • I know these trades should have been done last week, but I need to know if they are still good for this week?
    Evans-Mitchell
    Currie-Nicholls
    Cheers fellas.

    • Currie to Nicholls is solid – rids you of a Tri-bye player, plus it nets you a very encouraging cash cow for a future cash influx.

      Evans to Titch, not so much. Much better off getting Hrovat or upgrading to a R11 Premo from Evans, as Mitchell has the bye this week. Don’t forget you can always grab him next week – I will be.

      • Cheers tbetta

      • Is cash likely to be relevant with Nicholls? He’ll probably hang about as R3 for me for the rest of the year. Kind of academic since having a replacement for late withdrawals/1 wk injuries who can score 100s is well worth it regardless.

  • Great read Tbetta, thanks for answering my tweet!
    A quick question, who do you think will average more for the rest of the year, Keiran Jack or Scott Selwood?
    Cheers

    • im facing that same question…

    • Ripping question and very tough to call. I think it will be close but at the end of the year I think Jack will come out the winner. West coast are going to struggle the second half of the year (they wont make finals, mark my words) and Sydney seem to be going from strength to strength.

      • Great read TBetta.

        D Day – Eagles havnt exactly been flying so far in 2013 so I am not sure why you think it will affect scooters scoring? I will be choosing next week between (front runner) K Cornes or Scooter to finish my mids and am leaning towards Scooter as he has shown he can score well even when the Eagles struggle?

  • Great article as always.

    Looks like you’re going to have to trade O’meara, M.Jones, Mayes & Crouch this week and next. You pick the order on cash vs. body on the field. probably jones and mayes this week and crouch and omeara next week. Still think you should have downgraded Daw instead of Rowe last week :)

    Last weeks double upgrade trades were Mayes to Cloke which was good but I regret my trade of to Wines to Hibberd! should have gone Gibbs. This week i’m planning on going M.Jones to Barlow & Gawn to Nicholls (not worrying about Rowe). Next week I’m planning on Scotland to T.Mitchell (moving B.Goodes back into defence) & O’meara to K.Jack or similar.

  • I only had 18 players before my trades last week and decided to go Birchall to Gibbs and Dwyer to Cloke. Both new recruits scored a 100+, but i sacrificed getting mitchell in last week as i already had 10 players missing in round 12. Those trades gave me 20 players which meant i fielded 19 after JJK went soft and visited the general.
    Evans-Hrovat and Naismith to Nicholls planned trades this week, the latter trade only because i want to field 20 players in round 13 fingers crossed, rather than doing blicavs to Nicholls.

  • No mention of Ellis? BE -38. Was thinking of trading him for Scotland. Worth it?

    • I’m desperate to do this exact trade also… but Ellis has been out for 4 weeks! Very high vest risk, especially given his vestiness earlier this season.. unless someone can convince me otherwise…

      • I don’t think the vests earlier in the year are relevant, given his subsequent form, but a vest to return from injury surely a possibility. One mitigating factor is that if he would’ve played as a vest last week then the extra week might mean he avoids the vest upon returning this week.

        Kind of glad to already have him and 20 players starting, it means if he gets the vest, his score won’t count, and if he doesn’t brilliant! Much harder to justify bringing in though since he’ll be bought in preference to someone else…

  • Great article as always!

    Last week I traded Moloney – Mitchell & Stevenson-Gibbs which both worked well.
    I originally had this weeks trades as
    Blicavs-Nichols but the other trade I had lots of options.
    I could go Either Lucas or Neade to either Barlow or Hrovat. I originally choose Lucas to Barlow, but have changed that to Hrovat and banked $640,000 planning a big upgrade next week.
    I did this mainly as I think he will struggle against the hawks and has round 13 bye, while Neade should play during byes or I can upgrade him & Rowe and complete all but my midfield next round.

    Either way 1955 last week was best all season in placing so I’m fairly happy

  • Is anyone else considering trading Omeara out this week? I would rather wait until next week but I currently have 14 players with the bye next week.

    Goddard, Heppell, Gibbs, Laird, Swan, Ablett, Pendles, Watson, Omeara, Crouch, Nicholls, Kreuzer, McAffer, Rowe.

    I also have Currie which effectively gives me 15 not playing next week. Rowe is the obvious one to trade out but I wont make that much cash from that, plus I like having the flexibility to swing Cox forward.

    Laird has a BE of 15 so keen to hold until next week at least.

    I just think out of those with the byes next week Omeara is probably the best one for me to either downgrade/upgrade to Hrovat/Barlow.

    Anyone else thinking the same?

    • I’m pretty much in your boat.

      Evans + Kerridge were my planned trades, but can’t afford Barlow with that. So JOM + Kerridge = Barlow + Hrovat. Barlow > JOM, Hrovat >= Kerridge. So still an upgrade for me.

      If you’re set on Barlow, then pull the trigger on JOM. Keep Laird and McCafe, Crouch has at least 2 more price rises left too.

    • You don’t need to worry about Rowe since you’ll only have two on fwd bench in Rd 13 anyway. I’d say you want to get rid of Laird, O’Meara and Crouch this week and next, which probably means offloading O’Meara this week.

      That should give you 18 for the round, and if you want any more I think you’ll have to offload a premium.

  • nice article Tbetta..

    i was one of those assy coaches that did the double downgrade and got mitchell and nicholls… very happy with that… and a nice $480k in bank.

    this lets me double upgrade this week.
    moloney – barlow
    blicavs – minson

    and then i still have enough to upgrade o’meara next week to a premo mid

  • Great article as always mate.
    I nearly laughed at the “Majak Daw (phobia of rain)” line, then I cried a little bit, because his and JJK’s outs meant I only had 17 afield last week, which cost me a league win :(

  • Great article Tbetta, especially the best to avoid bit, very sound logic.

  • Awesome read, Tbetta! I was planning to trade in Cornes for Moloney this week. Or are there better R11 options for Moloney? My mids are full of R12 and R13 players. Moloney is not named in the injury list so I am assuming he’ll be named? If he is, leave him on and don’t pursue this trade?

    • moloney has maxed out… he will start losing you money now unless he pumps out another 100+ score.

      you should look at getting:
      barlow, s.mitchell, griffen, fyfe.

      • If Moloney is named.. I’ll need his points during the MBRs as I will also need to look to trade out my R12/R13 mids like O’Meara, Whitfield, Evans so that I can field as many players.
        Don’t you think points would be worth more during MBRs than losing $20k in value??

        • Moloney is a luxury trade at this stage and if he maintains his numbers through the year will see out the season as M9 the way he’s going, depending on how quickly Titch maxes out or if he holds his numbers

  • Evans > Hrovat and Rowe > Nicholls. 22 on the field. Trade Scotland next week.

    Or scotland > Hrovat, not losing scotlands price fall, 21 on field, and keeping evans to trade next week, or keep if the shit hits the fan.

    • How many other rnd 13 players do you have? will you be able to field 18/19 players before trades next week if you keep Scotland?

      • +1. With 21 or 22 on field this week either you had a terrible week last week or will only have max 17-19 next week. Aim to equalise these numbers when tossing up between options.

      • Yes, I have to trade Scotland and JOM next week to have 19. If there are lti or omissions, could be in trouble. Looks like bye bye Scotland.

  • Would it be stupid to trade out Scotland to pretty much any premo player mid or defender, to be honest I’m over his shit scores !!! Any ideas ??

    • Trade him man he is old and isn’t going to get much mid time anymore, Trade him to maybe Hanley? Already had his bye and also can go pretty big.

    • i’ll be looking to trade him next week

    • most of us have too many rd 13 premos, including JOM. If you have to trade one, Scotland is first choice. Hes also going to lose some cash this week.

  • Thanks for the awesome read mate, much appreciated
    One concerne however. I don’t agree with you on putting Boyd in the “Best for: Avoiding category. I am picking him up as well as Barlow to complete my midfielders with premiums plus T Mitchell. I believe he can still go on to average well over 100 for the rest of the year, but not to last years standards quite

    • If you only want a 100avg there are cheaper and less risky options.
      However if you think he can get back to avg 115 go for it.

      I have my doubts though.

  • Nice read Tbetta, t, Nicholls has played 3 games round 8 2011 against Adelaide was his 1st game.

  • Im going for another mid premo but i dont really want to get barlow like everyone else, i was thinking redden,boyd,cornes but i will take barlow if those other options dont come close to barlow. Thoughts on who to pick or other suggestions?

  • Which Defender should i get if i already have birch,hepp,godd, hartlett and hibberd.

    Initially thinking Ellis (VERY low BE), but now leaning towards Duffield (Better scorer?)

    thoughts ?

  • It’s pretty obvious how I went when I mention that I had all four players mentioned in the trolling category! Really wasn’t expecting to cop a donut with 19 players named.

  • Over the next 2 weeks I will be looking at getting out 4 of my Rd 13 bye rooks.

    Dwyer
    O’Meara
    Crouch
    Laird

    To maximize cash generation I think I will be trading out Dwyer and O’Meara this week and Crouch and Laird next week.

    I currently have 410K in my bank which will allow for 1 downgrade and 3 upgrades. I am not sure weather to do the downgrade next week (Blayne Wilson in for Laird) or this week (Hrovat in for Dwyer)

    Currently I am counting on getting Wilson in next week and my trades look like this:

    This week:
    O’meara->Barlow
    Dwyer->Cotchin/S.Mitchell

    Next week:
    Laird->Wilson
    Crouch->S.Selwood/J.Selwood/JPK/anyone playing in Rd 13.

    Which will leave me with a pretty much complete team come the end of the byes.

    Not sure whether to get hrovat (Should be good for a 65+ average) this week or Blayne Wilson (Could be good for an 80 average or might injure his wrist/have a shocker and never play again after his 2nd game, in which case I wont want to pick him up and therefore I wont have a downgrade option….

  • My plans over the next few weeks include

    Blitz/Rampe – Nicholls/Hrovat. leaves me with $592,800

    Next week, Neade to Stevie J, O’meara to Enright (Goodes DPP)should leave me with roughly $200,000 in the bank.

    The week after Goodes to a mid premium (Already have Barlow) bit stuck on who, but a mid premium no doubt. Which will also leave me with Tom Mitchell as my only on field rookie in the midfield..thoughts?

  • $470k to spend on a bye 11 mid/fwd (my structure needs him in mids this week and fwds next week). Jordan Lewis looks a good pickup any buyer beware signals I have missed? Seems a reliable type at F4 for rest of year? Fwd line would be Nick Roo, Stevie J, Cloke, Rockliff, Lewis, Zorko with Staker and Rowe on bench(Cox dpp in rucks with Kreuz/Nicholls/Blicavs)

  • would it be bad if i traded outroberton for bret goodes and mcveigh out forsammy mitchell?

    • why would you bring in a rookie that has pretty much maxed out? can’t you upgrade or downgrade roberton?

      • ok thanks for your suggestion sturart but which backmen would you go for around the 250-320k mark?

  • who is the best premium to bring in this week

  • Jaeger or Priddis > Barlow or K.Martin

    My other trade is Rowe > Nichols

    PS: Redden this week really? Wont he get smashed by the dockers?

  • Great read as always mate!

    I am seriously considering Ibbotson over Duffield – any reason not to?

    I will be bringing both Gibbs and Kreuzer in after the Rnd13 bye. Bringing both in now just doesn’t work with the structure.

    Thoughts on Ibbotson would be appreciated, current defence:
    Goddard, Heppell, Hibberd, Suban, Vlaustin, Goodes, Thurlow, Terlich.

    Vlaustin will be moved to the midfield providing DPP cover and making space for Ibbotson.

  • I need a midfielder 460000 or less. Who is the best option? I am thinking of going along the ride with Cotchin?

  • Just a small thing- Griffen plays Melbourne final round. No/bad tag. Shit midfield. Stat whore. Perfect.

  • Agreat read Tbetta, I love your stuff!
    The Leuey crisis… Cox,Nicholls, Blicavs, Leuey.
    In which direction do I go?
    I’m interested in O’Meara to Barlow also this week.
    Other dilemmas but I will stick with this for now!

  • Thoughts on bringing Boyd in this week (if he is named)? Everyone else seems to be going with Barlow but Boyd’s price and DT pedigree is sorely tempting.

    Current midfield: Swan, Ablett, Watson, Priddis, Deledio, Fyfe, O’Meara, M Evans, Blicavs, Rampe.

    Evans on his way out this week.

    • I’ll boil it down for you…..I am one of those suckers who has had Waters sitting on the pine for the last 4 or 5 weeks, calf, quad, calf, quad it never ends with this guy. I have the option to bring either Boyd or Barlow in this week with still enough cash on lay-away to bring in Scooter next week to complete my midfield. Barlow is the boy i’m bringing in. Why, not because Boydy is crap but:
      a) Barlow has some juicy teams to play against
      b) he’s not 32
      c) he is not coming of an injury
      d) Ross Lyon will never late withdrawal someone, if they aint playin they aint playin

  • Thoughts on a double downgrade this week? Like jumping on Nicholls and Hrovat?

  • …..didak, Sinclair, krak, Fasolo. Gosch they have a lot of half forwards in their paddock

    Excellent article Tbetta, always number 1 in my eyes. I’d love to know who is the highest averaging DTer ever who pips Mickey B-rown-low

    Cornes averaging 100 when they lose. That sounds pretty solid. Coming pretty cheap at the moment. But Freo’s draw and affection for Barlow tilts me that way. Duffield also tempting

  • roberton to ryan lester anyone?