The Friday Scramble: Round 11 (MBR 1)

FridayScrambleWhilst we could all be confused for thinking that all we have had this year have been multi bye rounds, however, this is the first official one.  So the first order of business is to start working BLUE!  No, don’t take a leaf out of Rodney Rude’s book, but start to look at the Blue Dots on your DT Team.  The guys at Virtual Sports have kindly identified all of the guys that are having the bye this week with a nice blue dot.  Clearly the first thing to do is make sure that unless you already have two blue dots on your bench you shouldn’t have any blue dots on your field!

Clearly we all know now that Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Brisbane, Western Bulldogs and Richmond are all on a bye week and hence none of them are going to score you any points.  So what can you do about it??

Bye Plans!

Wow if I have heard one bye plan this week I have heard a heap of them!  The fact that we only have to have 18 scoring players and we have had two trades a week all year means that this should be a breeze shouldn’t it!  Where are all those guys that said this game was too easy now?  Not in the top 100 I bet!

The structure that everyone would have been working towards if they could would have been to have 10 10 and 10 out each week which would give them 20 players playing every week.  However, we all know that this isn’t going to happen.  As we have all been diligently upgrading and downgrading I am sure that our plans have gone out the window!

The policy that a lot of people may go with would be the Meatloaf Theory that @FootyRhino mentioned in his podcast this week (that I was a guest on this week).  His theory is that if you can win two of your league games through this period then you are doing well.  I tend to agree with this.  Particularly with the carnage of the R13 bye with Essendon, Gold Coast and Collingwood providing some of the bigger guns in our teams with Ablett, Swan, Pendles, Watson, Goddard, Stanton, Heater, Heppell and Jaeger!  So I know a lot of coaches may go into that week a bit short on key midfield depth.

TBetta had some great advice earlier in the week in Tbetta’s Bullets.  I won’t go through it all again here, but have a look at it and see what category you fall into and how you can approach it!

Monday Madness!

Yet again this week we will head into lockout without knowing the final teams for the Monday game.  I am sure a few more people would have brought Hutchings in lastw week if they had the knowledge that he is firmly cemented in the West Coast team for that game.  So this week we will be waiting to see if Collingwood give one of their stars an extra week rest (such as happened with Swanny last year) and to see which Dee’s survive the knife (once Neeldy gets it out of his back!).   Add to that the fact that we are in a Bye week and we may be sweating on guys to make sure that we actually have 18 players on the ground and this makes this a very bloody inconvenient week to have a Monday game!!!

Do I like Monday Night Football (yes I know this week is an avo game)?  Well I can’t say it is my favourite timeslot and it also makes it a heap harder to get my son to go to bed as he wants to sit up and watch the game (thankfully Monday wasn’t close so it was easier to shuffle him to his room!).  So for those that have to get up early the next day and actually want to go and watch their team it would be rather difficult!

#AskDunny 

Once again this week I hope to help you out with your problems and will respond to a few of the tweets that I get when I put the call out on a Wednesday / Thursday.

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This is an interesting one and to be honest it really comes down to what the rest of your team looks like.  I would say that this week if you have 18 decent players, then I would be looking at that double downgrade so that next week when we get the round 11 guys back you can use that cash to do a double upgrade to two guys that have already had their byes.  So you might pick up Sam Mitchell and Trent Cotchin.  So if you need to get rid of an underperforming R11 premo to get your numbers up then that is the way you should go, but if you have enough guys go the double downgrade.  Sadly I won’t be able to do that!

Scramble7JuneTweet2

To be honest I don’t think that it is.  Are you sure that you aren’t able to structure other trades over the next two weeks to eliminate a potential donut in R13?  All in all though, it comes down to what your overall strategy is.  If you are going for the cash then obviously you can’t afford to go for the donut.  But if you are going for the league win you might be able to get away with it because everyone else’s teams will be crippled with injury too.  So my gut feel says donuts aren’t acceptable but if you want to roll the dice go for it because the points you may get from Stanton over the next two weeks might be enough to get you wins in both of those matches.

 

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Mitchell is a gun… let’s not forget this.  Barring injury this week he will be in every team in the next week or two.  So bringing him in this week wouldn’t be the end of the world.  To be honest he is a massive chance to come into my rubbish laden team this week!  To be honest if Tom Mitchell fits into your bye strategy then I would be saying it isn’t a problem bringing him in early! Then yes, you can pick up the other rookies in the next few weeks.

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Firstly, love the stubby holder there mate!!  But on to your question.  This is a tough one!  Cox has been our man through thick and thin over the past few years but Big Will has really shone through this year and is really this years Ivan Maric.  If the AA team is picked now then he would certainly be in first ruck.  But for the AA DT for the year lets have a look at a couple  of numbers….

Dean Cox is averaging 92.1 with 3 scores over 100, max of 132 and two scores in the 70’s, a low of 73.  For his remaining games has Adelaide and Essendon twice.  Gold Coast, St Kilda and the Bulldogs once each.  But also faces Collingwood, Geelong, Essendon, Sydney Fremantle.
Will Minson is averaging 91.2 with 3 scores over 100 with a max of 122 and three scores under 80 with a low of 66. For his remaining games he plays Melbourne twice, GWS and Brisbane. Also has Collingwood, Richmond, Hawthorn, Essendon and Sydney to come still.  8 of his last 12 are at Etihad.

So the scores are pretty close but I think that Will probably has a slightly easier run than what Coxy does.  He also has age on his side.  The one thing that Coxy does that Will doesn’t is kick goals.  If I had to pick right at the moment I would probably say Will would probably score more for the rest of the year.  Tough call though if you ask me… which you did!

Things To Remember!

  • Umm… in case you weren’t reading or were under a rock it is a bye round.
  • Monday teams won’t be finalised until Saturday afternoon.
  • Everyone else is in the same boat as you.
  • Beware the vested rookie – We are madly bringing in all these rookies, just beware the green vest on all this fresh meat.
  • If I ever meet the guys on selection committees at clubs they will get a serious pasting from me!  Damn you Geelong with no Blicavs!

How did my team go last week?  2121 and I broke back into the top 5000. Things are looking up now!  I was burnt by Stevie as the captain, however, that was my choice, not Calvin’s fault!  I also struggled with having Hanley’s rubbish score.  I still managed 4 wins (one against @WarnieDT) and my only loss was against @FlossyDT.

So good luck over the next 3 weeks.  It is going to suck seeing rubbish scores each week, but unfortunately there isn’t much we can do about it!  So just take it and make the most of it!  Keep an eye on Twitter tomorrow and watch out for the late news on any changes to the teams.  Give me a follow on twitter @pkd73 and I will try and keep you all up to date with what I find out.

I am sure you will all have plenty of issues this week.  So jump in the comments and help each other out and try and get the best score that we all can this week!

77 Comments

  • I have 20/20/20 vision, if you know what I mean.

    WINK

  • good read Dunny. In the perfect world, given my team atm, I am hoping for a 18/21/19. I am cashing up this week as I am playing as my opponent this week is down the ladder and in r13 I play top of the ladder. Lonergan to Mitchell – locked in. Which other upgrade out of these would you support?

    1. Leuy to Vardy?
    2. Daw to Nicholls?
    3. Leuy to NIcholls?
    4. Crouch to Hrovat? – I am tending not to do this trade as Crouch is playing (at last) and I will trade in R13 which means I miss Hrovat.

    Cheers

    • Who are your other rucks apart from Leuey and Daw? Without seeing your rucks I would go for Daw to Nicholls, but that’s only because Daw is going to leak cash this week and Leuey won’t.

      • What you want to do is have 1 available ruck from each bye round e.g Roughead (11), Cox (12) and Nicholls (13). So depending on which round your other available rucks have byes, you want to go for rucks with byes in other weeks. If you hold on to Leuey, he will be perma-bench until at least round 15, which isn’t as bad as it sounds, but if you do stick with him, make sure it isn’t compromising the amount of players you are able to field each bye round.

    • leuey to nicholls

  • Thanks Dwyer for screwing me over after I sang your praises, real top work mate. Apart from that though I think I’m fine. I might struggle a little bit this week because I’m relying on Kommer and Thurlow as part of my best 18, but I think round 12 and especially round 13 I will storm up the rankings.

    If it wasn’t for it messing with DT selections, I’d be fine with Monday night games. They give you something to look forward to during your Monday. I know for a fact that I hate most Mondays, and so do over half of the other people on this site, so having a game of footy to watch on a Monday night is very pleasing.

    • Monday Night Football became popular in the US because it gave people a chance to get back (some of) what they lost over the weekend or to double what they had won. I’m a bit confused by this “looking forward” theory that is “pleasing”.

    • have exactly the same worry playing Kommer and Thurlow. Kommer would have been gone this week but had to trade Dwyer instead to avoid a donut

  • In my ruck I have 3 having the bye in round 12:Daw, Currie, Goldstein. And 1 in round 13:Kreuzer. Now, I want to trade currie out for a bye 11 player so I have some more cover. Any opinions on a 300,000-100,000 player who will cover for a week and give me a handy score?

    • The cheapest guy I can think of that would be worth getting is Jarrad Redden from Port. But for only $120k more you can get Minson, who I believe will be in the top 2 ruckmen by the end of the year. Don’t worry about trading out Currie, get rid of Daw instead, his price has peaked for the foreseeable future, and if you’re going to trade in Wilbur, you won’t need him from now on anyway. That’s just my 2 cents worth. The other interesting option would be Roughead, but you’d only consider him because of his mid/fwd DPP status. If you traded him in you could just swap him in to your forward line whenever you please, which would give you an added flexibility you would struggle to find otherwise seeing as you have Goldy instead of Cox.

      I doubt you’ll find a cheap ruck that is going to be able to get you decent points I’m afraid, so trade out Daw instead and look for a more expensive alternative. At least if you trade out Daw instead of Currie you will have about $140k more to work with when making your trades.

      Hope this helps both you and toasted. He is most likely in a very similar situation to you.

      • Cheers Jarrad. After the byes if I go with this method, I will not want 3 prems in my rucks with will, kruzer and goldstein. I also have cox in fwd. After the byes who should I trade out, from those 3??

        • What about zac clarke? A cheaper option and after byes downgrade to daw?

          • I’d probably trade out Kreuzer, but it really depends which one of the three has the worst form over the next few weeks. Zac Clarke is cheaper than Minson, but only by about $50k ($430k compared to $380k). Also, Sandilands is due to come back in a couple of weeks anyway, and that will greatly decrease Clarke’s scoring. As for trading back down to Daw after the byes, it isn’t the worst idea, but only do it if you really need the cash. I know that I would much prefer to have a really good ruck on my bench that I can rely on if one of my 2 starting rucks gets injured/withdrawn instead of $200k extra cash and 1 less trade.

        • go Daw – Roughead, after a slow start he is a premium scoring forward who you can sit on your ruck bench for this weekend. Most of us have a bunch of Rd11 fwds or Rd12 fwds or both.

          it will also mean Cox can sit on your ruck bench for R12 if you have the luxury to dump Currie next week for Nicholls. So roughy is either a scoring fwd next week or R13 Roughy can go forward.

      • The other option is to go Currie to Nicholls, which should enable you to play two rucks every week.

  • Nice work again Dunny. Careful planning for the byes was never going to work with players now being “managed” instead of “rested”.

    • Player management is a big argument for two trades a week. they are a variable no stat or amount of planning can deliver an advantage for, unless you plan for the Hawks to rest a few late season, probably a few other clubs this year too.

  • Nick – if grimley is picked next week for hawks may be an option for you?

    • He won’t be. If he is I will eat my hat. (I’ve threatened to do this before but I have yet to taste a single hat.)

      • i wouldnt be so confident jazza! i rekon the kid might get a game…get some sauce for that hat mate! would love to see it :P

  • A similar problem to many I assume… blicavs to nicholls (surely he’s just being rested in classic Geelong form), which will give me one more player on the field (by swapping cox with roughie via dpp) or daw to nicholls to lose less cash/hold blicavs if he is indeed just getting a rest. Option 2 has 18 on the field, both give me 2 rucks for rd 12/13 though (assuming nicholls keeps his spot)

    • Get rid of Daw. Please read my above comments as to the reason :)

      • I agree daw has to go.

        • I was typing my comment intermittently while my boss wasn’t looking so your comments weren’t yet loaded on my screen :P
          Cheers guys, exactly what I want to hear!
          Also thanks Dunny, great Friday morning distraction from work as always!

  • Wonderful read as always Dunny! Great way to start a friday and to set up this scary bye round :D

  • Dunny, running with 6 mid premos out in R 13.

    Should I sideways trade 2 and then have just 4 mids out?

    • yes, unless there are serious other deficiencies on your team or you are in it for the league win and can afford the drop. expect to score 300 less than everyone else

  • sam rowe > ben kennedy and hodge > kyle martin

  • This is going to sound a bit out there…. However Melbourne don’t have the worst run to the end of the season and with Chris Dawes maybe starting to settle in, would he be a reliable* (plays most weeks) primary target up forward for 300 k?

    • Am I crazy thinking about a Melbourne forward?!?!

    • played most weeks up forward for the Pies and didn’t he score well there, with the second or third best def on him? (No in case you aren’t sure of the answer – I’d take the last three years of evidence over last week’s).

      • Agreed. Until he can prove himself. And lets face, for the next couple of years Melbourne forwards will be extremely deprived of opportunities to score.

  • Reading this article, I can be convinved that Minson is a good trade option for Leuey. Before I was thinking either Jolly or Kreuz. Who would be the best (2nd half of the season) ruck of out the 3 for Leuey?

    • Kruezer could be anything (average over 100, or under 70), Minson will plug away and average 90 and Jolly looks like he’s thisclose to either injury or suspension every time he plays.

      I’d go 1) Krooz (particularly given his current price tag), 2) Big Will and 3) Jolly.

  • this week trading franklin to field 18. should i get stokes or nreiwoldt?

    • 1 – Minson
      2 – Krooooz
      Dont go for Jolly, he is shit and old and injury prone.

      • sorry that comment was for twobeemee.

        Risky trading Franklin, it could burn you bad. I think Stokes will be more consistant, but Nroo has a higher ceiling. Both killing it and cant go wrong with either.

  • thanks DUnny. What do you think about doing Lueberger to GOldstein. Surely he is abetter option that big WIll Minson!!

    • is this post visable to anyone??

      • What post?

        • haha.

          Hotties – why is Goldstein better than Minson in your opinion? Do as you please but stats dont lie.

          • I had Goldstein towards the end of last season after H-Mac got injured… and will never, NEVER forgive him for the rubbish he dished up.

          • the Goldlock has a rd 12 bye which is helpful to my strucutre. Does this big man tireout towards season end?

  • complete backflip on all my trade plans. I wanted Stanton, but I would have had a wasted man on the pine round 12. I am going for Titchell and Stevie J

  • evans – t.mitchell
    burger – nicholls

    next week:
    blicavs – minson
    moloney – barlow

  • Forgive me if I’m covering old ground here. But is the captains loop hole a possibility this week?

    • no because all players are locked in at the start of lockout tonight. It can only work if there is a partial lockout, which there isn’t

  • Walker may be injured for blues, down for a fitness test. If he doesn’t make it, hopefully Rowe gets a game *licks lips*

  • Cheers Dunny

    Looking to get another player on field, thinking Rocky > Rd13 fwd.
    Currently have Macaffer & Dwyer, so Dwyer could go too…
    Cloke v Melb? Maybe Waite or Robbo?

    Any thoughts appreciated

    • Rocky is a consistent player and be good in the long run. Cloke can dish out huge scores but he always has quiet games. Why not Nick Riewoldt is in great form.

  • peoples thought on trading daw > jolly?

    noone mentioning him but his numbers are appealing to me!

    • I think you may be onto something! Numbers are great, Pies coming up with an easy draw and a great POD! Take the punt.

  • Best downgrade for the poor ol’ LeCras? Cheers

    • Maybe Ben Kennedy?

      Bit expensive, great JS at the minute.

    • I would say you are holding him or upgrading him…downgrading just looks yuck to me.

    • Yeah – I’d like to keep him – really rate him as player… but need to cover a doughnut, unfortunately.
      2 weeks out is too long over MBRs. Currently have gone sideways to Christensen to improve DPPs, but still not feeling good about it…

  • for pocket change you could go to the Hoff!!!!…..

  • I know Rockliff will have the bye and be back next week, but im bringing in the big guns in Stevie J. although ill miss him next week, nothing you can do about that. in the long run ill get big scores.

    • why not as long as you’ll have balance during the MBRs.. StevieJ for C in Rnd 13 also when all the gun mids are out.

  • Daisy > Kieran jack or Scott selwood
    Mayes> riewoldt or bartel

  • Oh lord please let the rumours of a possible Rowe call up for an injured walker be true! Any word?!

    • The only word is Walker may not play, so one of the emergencies, one being rowe, may play.

  • Any reason why I shouldnt trade Mayes > Ben Kennedy.

    Makes plenty of cash, is playing this with a low BE. Can pick up Hrovat and Mitchell in the coming weeks.

    Makes sense right ?

  • Chris Judd in doubt for tonights nigh game also

  • Do i get rid of Michael Evans Or Sam Dwyer?! I’ve got 20 players playing with Evans in, but he is probably going to go down in price and Dwyer might come back next week and go up in price?!

    Please Help!

  • Sounds like Evans is the smarter choice. If you have 19 after trading out evens I would say that’s fair considering the $. Will go down this week. Probably not a heap though