Calvin’s Captains – Rd. 11

pirate bird

This round is an easy one (kind of) where we have 4 guys who could all get 150 if things go to plan, but I am already looking forward to the challenge of Rd. 13 when we will be missing Swanny, Stanton, Gazza and many other stars.

Last week, Stevie Johnson was my #1 option and for many many great reasons. He should have killed the Suns but it’s hard to predict role changes and the weather, even for a pirate. Either way, he still scored 94 and should be brilliant this week at Skoda against the Giants who he had 150pts on last year. This was his 2nd highest DT score EVER and he did it with 25d and 5 goals. Despite the 94, Stevie has been in good form let’s not forget. He had 144, 105, 136 and 141 leading into that and should be awesome again this week.

Mind Your DT Manners!

OINK OINK OINK – he’s back alright after a solid 130 (36d, 2g) last week and this week Dane Swan gets a crack at Melbourne! OINK OINK!! He will have a field day don’t you worry about that. He did last year when he had a huge 142 (43d) on them. He never played them in 2011, but carries scores of 150, 84, 133 and 130 before that dating back to 2009. Yes, he’s back… but let’s not completely forget about the time he can sit forward and not on the ball and the time he had 85 and 90 just recently. Forward, back or even on the pine it won’t matter, the pig will be right at home at the MCG and will pump out something special for us on Monday afternoon. Scott Pendlebury will be there as well. He had 95 last week with scores of 104, 136, 116 and 147 on Melbourne in his last few games against after not playing them at all in 2012. He’ll be a smokey captain this week with the majority of DT coaches rolling with my top 4 I’d assume.

So Swanny… screw your DT manners, it’s time to pig out!

dt pig

 “Am I a Pig Yet?” …. I tell you what though Brent Stanton… you’re getting close and possibly at the top of the DT Piggery list to be inducted. Yes, I loved the fact that you had 149 and 144 over the last 2 weeks and I am excited as you play the Blues this week at the MCG where you have averaged 133 this year (3 games). You can grab big scores and I love the way to chase loose kicks and marks that no one else wants. Especially in the last quarter when your team is up by 50 or when you float in the defensive half when your DT score is low. It’s brilliant! I have also noted that last year against them you had 72 (not pig like) and a huge 175 which happened to be your 2nd biggest DT score in your career. I am expecting big things this week. But I have given you a list of things to work on if you ever wanted to be inducted into this elite status.

  1. Consistent piggery over a period of time. As the scroll stats… “consistent piggery level for a substantial period of time.” This is where you let yourself down, like Stevie J.
  2. Lose the <90 scores. You’ve had 10 of these in the last 2 years, Swanny has 1.
  3. Average over 120 for a period of time. You have never had a season averaging 120+ and if you compare that to the king pig, he would have done it for the last 5 years… if he can improve his current 112 he sits at right now. Which he will.

You’re doing well Stants. But to be a DT gun is one thing but to be a PIG is another!

A Quick Tagger Alert

Although I don’t beleive that this is overly important I just want you to be aware that there will be some strong ‘attempts’ to tag. Yes, attempts… cause I don’t think it will make much of a difference. GWS use many taggers and either Scully, Townsend, Palmer, Treloar or Shiel might get a job on any given day. Shiel held Marc Murphy last week to just 70, in a game you would have thought he’d dominate. Stevie J will get someone for sure. In the Pies/Melbourne game, watch for Dunn and McKenzie to get busy… or try to. McKenzie went to Burgoyne last week and did a pretty good job holding him to 72. Just passing on the info, but don’t lose sleep over it.

Gary the Great

Gary Ablett is my savour… my avenger this week. He is the inform player right now after having 140, 139, 135 and 134 in the last 4 weeks. The man is killing it. This week he plays the Roos at Metricon, a ground where he can have huge score and where he has averaged 119 this year from 5 games. Last year against the Kangaroos he had 148pts with 42d and did it with a tag from Greenwood. The year before that he had 146pts which makes them one of his favourite teams to score DT points on since joining the Suns.  He has form, history and Metricon on his side and he is the safest bet this week and might even get you a nice 150+!

A Good Centrebet – The line of Jobe Watson will interest me this week. He has a highest score of 116 on Carlton from 14 games over his career with that score occurring in 2006. Another to keep an eye on is Drew Petrie who had 136 last week. Last year he had 110 and 126 on the Suns and might be worth a sneaky bet if he’s offered at a line or even in a head to head. Need an account? CLICK HERE but please… #gambleresponsibly

CC11ART

Good luck and follow me for more captain info and for if I ever change my top 5 and for my Tuesday night teasers – @CalvinDT

Who will you have as your captain for Round 11?

  • Gary Ablett (63%, 1,769 Votes)
  • Dane Swan (26%, 728 Votes)
  • Brent Stanton (3%, 80 Votes)
  • Steve Johnson (5%, 135 Votes)
  • Scott Pendlebury (2%, 50 Votes)
  • Someone Else (1%, 37 Votes)

Total Voters: 2,799

Loading ... Loading ...

600x300_CB_Origin_MB_2013

74 Comments

  • #INTHEPIRATEWETRUST

  • Another Incredible Article!

    Every single week your selections have been ideal for me!
    Starting off with the first 7ish rounds where I kept calm and locked swan as per your advice for an average of nearly 120. Then I switched to gaz for the next few for an average of 137, then last week where I had it on stevie J all week until a last minute reverse trades which brought it back to gaz, for another 140! And thanks to your great article everyone else had it on StevieJ!. This has by far been the best year ever for captain picks for me, thanks pirate!

    • At first I thought your comment was sarcastic… ha ha – Thanks mate

  • It’s really a flip on the coin on the top 4. Who to choose ;/

  • Top stuff Kelvin! Kerry Ablett for me this week :D

  • any thoughts on steele sidebum as a smokey scored 150 on the dees last year with 36 disposals 7 marks and 7 tackles and seems to be going well at the moment thoughts???

  • Travis cloke for a bag of goals and 130+

  • Swanny against the Dees, reminded me of this clip.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVRXtalL5MI #bigpig

    Could pump out the first 170 of the season and he will be my captain this week

  • Im tipping 10 scores of 110+ for the pies

    • I reckon 7 110+ scores at the most. The 7 most likely Collingwood players to get them being Swan, Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Ball, Cloke, Seedsman and Harry O’Brien in my opinion.

  • pardon my ignorance… but didn’t Swanny go for “scans” this week.

    Sounds like a 2 week Arizona trip for mine… Might have to go the nude nut.

  • Round 13 Calvin Captains will look like he’s gone mad if somebody didn’t know the byes were on then. 4 of the top 5 this week would be out.

    • Barlow or stevie j looking most likely top 3 that week

      • It’ll be nice to see Barlow make a top 5, he truly does deserve it. That’s assuming he makes the cut ;)

  • LOTS of tantalising tempters this week but seriously how is it possible to go past Gaz in career best form given his record at metricon and vs nth. The only question is just how big will he go??? To be overlooking swan vs the dees and SJ vs GWS shows just what sort of white hot form the freak is in!

  • Ba ba baahh, ba baahh, there is no one like him, like him. Ma ma ma manners, take a second look and you’ll see, there is no one like him, there is no one like him, like him. Sw Sw Sw Swanny, there is no one like him, like him…

    Geddit?

  • Calvin, I have a bit of a theory and that is whenever Stevie J is 4/5/or not listed he will pump out a 140, Looking to see if it’s true

  • Not an easy choice this week, I’m just happy to have 4 of the top 5.

  • Beware North Melbourne. They are the hardest team to score DT points on by a whopping 60pts/week on average, having not once given up 1500pts this year (the average is 1525!), with the next best having given up >1500pts on 3 occasions.

    Remember also that a goal here and there and they’d be 8-2 and sitting in 3rd on the ladder. I’ll be steering clear of Ablett this week…

    • The rules and averages don’t apply to Ablett.

      • He is truly a bald magician.

      • I still expect him to get 120-130, and in any other week would give him the C, but with Swan v Melb and Stevie v GWS, it’s got to be a pass.

    • I love your effort, but this only makes me more inclined to go Ablett. Everyone knows he’s a freak, but he is actually also a hipster; he enjoys going against what most would consider the norm.

      He scores roughly 30 points per game more against the best 4 teams in comparison to the worst 4 (this is a stat using 2012 scores). North Melbourne don’t have a tagger capable of holding him, and, historically they are one of his favourite teams to play. He’s also at Metricon where he has not gone under the ton ever in his career (correct me if I’m wrong with that one).

      Also, over this season so far he has been the most reliable option, and scored the most points of any player. I can’t go past him this week, and I think he is streets ahead for the spot of captaincy in my team, even in comparison to Swan and Johnson.

      • You are wrong. He had 3 sub-100 scores at Metricon in each of 2011 and 2012 although one was injury affected in 2011 and one was a 99 in 2012.

        Also, that stat isn’t true so far this year. 126.3 against bottom 4 – from 4 games – and 121 against top 4 – from 3 games – although the worse average in 121 is due to the 84 against Sydney.

        I definitely get your point though. How can you go past someone cranking out 130+ 4 weeks including against the top 2 and with a great record against the team he’s playing? It all depends on whether you think NM being a tough team to play against this year will affect him.

        • Chill!

          • Haha. Yeah, seems a bit harsh at re-read. Not how I meant it to come across! Sorry Jarrad

        • Yeah, I thought that Metricon stat might be wrong, but I think a 99 and a sub affected score shouldn’t really be considered. As for the averages against top/bottom 4 opponents, that was a stat I got off this very site earlier in the season. I believe it may have been slightly more complex than best/worst 4 but the point is still valid, he doesn’t care who he’s playing against, he can still absolutely dominate. With a history of good scores against North, I’d assume that that will only continue. Like I said, he easily has it for me over Swan and Stevie this week.

          • Fair enough. I remember the article actually, now that you mention it. And I’ll probably regret my decision come Monday evening (or Saturday night), but I’m going to stick with Swan for now.

    • This has continued to bug me so I’ve done a bit more research. While North weren’t as good at restricting teams last year as they have been this year, they did restrict GC to 1369 in the game that Gaz didn’t play and 1432 in the game he got 148. So there’s no reason to suppose that Gaz can’t go really big in a relatively restricted GC team.

  • A little somehthing I whipped up early…

    Over the last 6 week, other superstar on-ballers have met the Kangaroos and found the going reasonably easy.

    Round 10 – Leigh Montagna 89pts
    Round 9 – Patrick Dangerfield 121pts
    Round 8 – Matthew Priddis 108pts*
    Round 7 – Ryan Griffen 129pts*
    Round 6 – Kane Cornes 106pts*
    Round 5 – Sam Mitchell 111pts*

    * Top scored for their team

    Pretty good really for these guns

    • Confirms what I have said above. Despite the Roos being a DT restrictive side overall, they still leak points in the most crucial area. GAJ will be massive.

    • Great article Calvin. But I’m glad to create a bit of controversy. Aren’t you being a bit selective there? What about:

      Rd 8 – S Selwood 71
      Rd 7 – Cooney 47, Cross 54, Liberatore 54, Boyd 65
      Rd 5 – Hodge 61?

      Also note that Montagna was well down on his average as was Cornes at the time. And only 4x 115+ scores from Rd 5 onwards with 3 of them in the Adelaide game and 0x 130+ games for the whole year.

      If GC can get a win no doubt Ablett will have a 130-140, but otherwise I reckon a 120-130 seems more likely. Will Swan or Johnson beat that? I think so.

      Not saying you’re wrong Calvin, maybe I’m reading way too much into this and I’ll be proved wrong on the weekend. Also, think there’s a really good case for putting Gaz at 1, he’s just not there for me. And your top 4 are spot on by the way! Cheers!

    • Remember that we have struggled to play the full four quarters. I’ve seen all of these DT points accumulate minute after minute, and the trend is similar. These guys are disappointing for one half, then my boys forget that an AFL game has four quarters. We choke our lead and these guns get all these last quarter points.

      However, we managed to hold our lead against St. Kilda, explaining Montagna’s score. I firmly believe we can get this choking business under control, and when we do, it means no more last quarter shenanigans from the opposition superstars.

      Make of it what you will.

  • Keep excited, lock GAJ.

  • I’m going 2 downgrades to make money far I can upgrade big the next few rounds.

    In saying that and knowing pies have Melbourne at MCG and swans have Adelaide at Adelaide would you:

    A: bring in Kyle Martin
    Or
    B: bring in Tom Mitchell?

    • Shit! Sorry all thought I was in another thread. My bad!

      • No worries. I’ll reply because you’ve apologised :)

        I’d think about your bye structure first. I’d probably rather get those two over the next couple of weeks but will have to go Mitchell and Hrovat due an excess of Rd 13 bye mids.

        If that’s not an issue just get Mitchell. Maybe Martin has a huge one against Melbourne, but Mitchell might get a 100 on an ordinary day given his form of the last 3 weeks!

        • yea, good call. My current plan is for Mitchell and Hrovat but only picking up hrovat because he’ll be my downgrade for Melbournes Evans, which obviously suits the bye structure. Think I’ll stick with that for now. Thanks champion

  • I know that whoever I pick out of Swan and Ablett to carry the big C will score less. In fact if there’s a head to head market for these two, I’ll put my house on the VC to win!

    • Don’t do that. Just close your eyes and lock away the Bald Magician in the knife closet, if you know what I mean ;)

    • haha i had this problem all of last year, so badly that i raged and set a non playing player as captain and put the vice on ablett who pumped out a massive score that week…. don’t ask me why but i have been good at getting the C right since haha

  • For some reason, usually I love having my captain play on a Sunday, but thinking maybe a Monday TW. Probably because I don’t want to stuff my captain choice up and then be venting for the entire weekend. Leaning towards Swanny ATM.

  • Any thoughts on swallow as the big C ?

  • Tough week to pick a captain! Do you lock in the pig? The magician? or go for a bit of a POD captain. hmmm

  • just wondering is it worth chasing stanton this week??

    • Probably not due to an R13 bye. Unless you somehow dont have a plethora of R13 mids already missing.

  • Personally Calvin I think you’ve made a mistake this week with going GAJ your #1. We all know his a champ and can pump out massive scores, but heres the thing, did u see how he was grabbing at his hammy late last week? Not a big issue but a slight concern.. another one is that goldcoast arent looking to go to him as much as last year (so its hard to agree with ur past scores at times when he got handed the ball a lot last yr compared to this yr, they still go to him a hell of a lot but no where near as much as last year so if he does have a little niggle in the hammy I think he will be playing abit of the game up forward, besides the pig boy swanny is playing Melbourne! Melbourne ffs lol I could score 100+ on them so imagine what he could do?

  • Ablett is probably the safest option and so is Swany but i’m going with Stevie J this week. Yes he did get only 94 DT points last weekend but that’s only cause he was trying to tag Ablett. This week SJ plays GWS, there is no doubt he will get 30+ possessions and hopefully a couple of goals. Also Jimmy Bartell will score big.

  • Going Stevie J this week, but in my elite team I have bigger problems. Choices are out of Cloke, H Shaw, B Harvey, Goddard, Hep D or J Stevens. Tossing up between Shaw, Cloke and Harvey at the moment. (Harvey had 127 and 138 vs GC at Metricon) Ideas?

  • Thoughts on swan perhaps getting less game time if pies get right on top???

  • I’m predicting bombers to win, so I’m going Stant’s without a worry, no tag issues and plenty of uncontested junk. 140+ in his last two, can’t go wrong.

  • Some great discussion and points here. I’m really undecided still. The only thing that is leaning me towards swan is the comments made by Scott early in the week that they will do everything possible to stop GAJ, as he is the best player of the current era.
    I don’t think it will matter but it is just enough to lean me towards Swan.