Traded Players: Output v Expectations

Ever felt that every trade you make fails?  That gun player you bring in or that over, even averagely, performing rookie fails the week he comes on board? Well, rest easy, you are not alone.  After coming to similar conclusions myself, I decided to look at the statistics.  Below is what I came up with.  I have grabbed the top 10 most traded players from Round 2 through to Round 9, mapped their first output the week they were traded in, and compared that against their average at the time of trading. What came out was quite astounding (number in brackets represents the number of coaches that traded that player in that week).

trade1 trade2 trade3 trade4 trade5 trade6 trade7 trade8 trade9

Now, not all of your trades will be in the above, but I bet if you read this site a fair few of them will be. But what does this mean? Basically two things, a lot of the time we are in the same boat, and there is a fair bit of fools gold out there, Lester and Dixon to name a few. Like I said, a fair few of my trades are in the above, not to mention already having a few of the players that duded up the week others brought them in (looking at you Hamish) and as of Round 9 my team is ranked 488th so it is not the end of the world, looks like we are all in it together.

What we are looking for in the above is not necessarily for the stats to come out green (greater than zero), but for them to be somewhere close to zero (i.e. output against expectation to be similar, or at least in the same ball park!). What is promising is that in the last 3 Rounds, this seems to be happening. The fist 5 rounds, however, are playing MLB at Etihad and lining up a drop punt at the Green Monster at Fenway Park. Rounds 2 to 6 on average were about 19 points less than the expected output. No wonder we felt short changed. The last 3 rounds on average were only 2 points less than the expected output. Bang on zero if you exclude Brandon Ellis’s late withdrawal which skews the figures somewhat.   Note of interest: Beau Waters and Steve Johnson, who were both late withdrawals, were respectively the 47th (Round 6) and 13th (Round 8) most traded in players in the round.

Now in a way, the above stats are inherently due to fail, as we only really trade in players that are performing well. The average of the players above was 90 when traded, which is quite high considering the number of rookies involved. In fact, there was only one player traded in with an average less than 50 that is in the stats above, and that was Ben Kennedy in Round 8 (average due to vestage). Surely then he beat his lowly average of 40, ummm nope, he got 19 (green vest).  Conversely, there were 4 players with an average of +130 were traded in, the top two being Gary Ablett (average at time 135) and Bryce Gibbs (average at time 133). Surely they at least produced +100 scores the week they came in…. nope, 84 and 83 respectively.

As McRath always says, numbers are what DT is all about, and there are a few of them above that have been the source of many hard luck stories and ultimately have produced some sort of FMDT related statement. But as you can see, things seem to be on the up, let’s see how long it lasts.

Mark Mellow – Surly Duffs

19 Comments

  • great article, would you trade out brett goodes or vlastuin for luke ball this week?

  • Shows the psyche of the DTer a little bit too… trying to chase the big scores, but the reality is they don’t last.

  • Nice article – let’s not mention Beau Waters name again shall we!

  • Interesting. I think I’ve got an explanation about the dramatic change after the first few rounds. In the first few rounds we chase players that are outperforming their price. So, players like Westhoff and Vickery get picked up yet their starting price is usually a best guess of their actual value and most fall back to their former…ah… form, at which point no one buys them any more. Similarly, the best performing rooks get traded in while low scoring rooks don’t. While some of that is due to skill/player type etc, some is due to random good and bad games and the randomness usually results in a drop in scores from high scoring rooks and a rise for low scoring rooks.

    Once we get through the initial phase of the year, we, by and large, get whatever rooks we can (i.e the selection bias is reduced) and we get under-performing premiums who have bottomed out and showed some form and are, as such, highly likely to beat their average. Due to the latter consideration, I would expect the average points difference to move into positive territory for the remainder of the year on average (barring late withdrawals).

  • Interesting article Warnie. I’ve learned a lot about DT this year, particularly from this site. Although the season is long from over (hovering just outside the top 2k overall and ranked inside the top 500 in Eliminator) there are definitely things I’ll do differently next year. Namely, only paying premo prices for proven leet DTers, and never paying top dollar for a second year player or for one that has just come off a breakout year (at least until they’ve had a handful of regular season games to show they’ll back it up). Paying little attention to NAB form (although it did net me Hibberd – but for every Hibberd there’s a K Harper or P Karnesiz) and none to unexpected players pumping big scores in crap team against even crapper opposition (yes I do mean you Port!!!!). Buying Assistant Coach again (gold – I wonder if there are any people that score well and don’t have it – could happen but I definitely wouldn’t be among them) and of course the DT Cheat Sheet (you lads deserve my 2 bucks for all the work on the site – clearly I’m generous to a fault). And making sure I always have bench cover (thanks for nothing Ellis!).

  • Pretty pointless to compare one game to averages in the early rounds,
    when those being traded in will have an inflated average due to a couple of good games.
    Evens out later with less rooks, keepers being traded in after a couple of poor games and more accurate averages.

  • I have an overall ranking of 205 and I don’t have assistant coach!

  • 903 and no assistant coach.

  • Well done everyone for jumping in to profess your cheapness.

    Now for the article. Well written, but I agree with Mumbles above, I’d expect similar results to occur every season. People are always going to try and jump off under-performing players early and onto the Maric type bolter with an inflated projected score. At this point of the season we start to get under-priced premiums, like Boyd this week, to pick up which will sway the statistics back towards the positive.