Trigger Happy Round 9 – It’s Culling season

TriggerHappyYep it’s time to cull them cows. Bye bye little portlets. Bye bye Mayes, Viney and Whitfield. Bye bye Hamish Hartlett.  Excluding Hartlett, all these players have made us significant cash and won (or lost) us a game or two along the way. Now it’s time to reflect on their inconsistent performances, green and red vests and book in a date for four years time……see ya later!

Having said that, we don’t have 7 trades this week, so can’t get rid of them all at once, below is the ranking I would get rid of the cows with 1 being at the top of the list to cull.

1.Pittard – injured until round 12-13 has to go NOW. They can’t make money if they’re not playing.
2.Viney – as above
3.Neade – ‘rested’ and high b/e for when he does return
4.Crouch – good work if you have held him this long, but you have missed other players with your stellar patience
5.Stevenson – JS isn’t great, and not playing this week
6.Heath – Playing, but a high b/e
7.Mayes – Playing,  high b/e and a vest candidate
8.Kommer – Good JS and good for a 60
9.Whitfield – Good JS, but peaked in price.  

10Wines – Good JS and the best ceiling of the lot. Due for a rest soon you would imagine.

 

Now I have based the above list on the simple philosophies of playing is better than not playing**, then job security, then consistency of scoring. It’s a simple enough train of though,  but may help if you are not sure which  rookie to trade first.

** quick edit – playing is meaning that you may need them on the field or as an emergency for their points.

Defenders

Well in my head its a hard decision, but apparently not. The age-old question of ‘Thurlow vs Webster’ seems to be a landslide in regards to incoming trades this round, however I think it’s closer than it appears.

  Jackson Thurlow Jimmy Webster
Price $116,200 $108,500
Bye round 12 12
Red/green vest? 0 1
Good mobster name? No Yes
2 Surnames? Yes No
Average 65.6 48.5
Job security 6/10 6.5/10

I personally think it’s flip of a coin. Both are pretty highly rated at their clubs, and both will be given games to prove themselves. Thurlow has shown better scoring potential but I always worry about rookies in a top 4 team and why I will be going Webster this week over Thurlow, as I think Webster will get an extended run in a developing Saints team. Having said that, Geelong have a good track record of playing rookies for long periods of time so I wouldn’t hesitate picking him either. I also don’t think it would be the silliest idea to get both of them in this week.  Stockpiling some money in the war chest before the bye rounds when the rookie barrel is bare could be a master stroke.

While there is a general consensus that downgrading is the go this week, there are still some good value sideways trades. Tiger cub Nick Vlastuin ($282,300 b/e -56)  still has plenty of room to grow, but he did play Melbourne so don’t expect it every week. Brandon Ellis ($382,700, b/e  -44) is more of an upgrade target than a sideways trade these days thanks to a three round average of  122! While I recommended you jump on after round 6, I didn’t think he would be this good! The sneaky Russian Corey ‘Boris’ Enright ($458,100, b/e 86) is back to his premium best with a five-round average of 96 and a handy Round 12 bye.

 

 Midfielders

While it’s downgrade time in the defenders, it’s upgrade time in the mids, and it feels so good!

Jobe Watson ($481,40, b/e 70) This is probably the cheapest you will see Jobe all season.  Now the 54 points against the giants is out of his average, he is  back to the consistent 105 – 115 every week that we know and love from him. Just beware  of his Round 13 bye that he seems to share with all the mid premiums. Check Tbetta’s Bullets for more information on managing premiums over the byes.

Gary Ablett ($585,900, b/e 97) Pretty happy to finally write about the little master – looks to have taken the mantle of #1 player this year and is scoring more in an improving Suns team.  Averaging 125 in his last five games, just find a way to get him into your team.  Makes his debut in my team this week and also gets the captains armband.

Keiren Jack ($512,800, b/e 76) . I thought I would include him as he has a round 12 bye and he is gunning it. Hitting the ton mark  7/8 times this year, he has been super consistent. Good point of difference and did I mention he has the seventh most points of anyone this season?

 

Rucks

 

Zac Clarke $360,300  – Was never on the radar as he was the fourth-string ruck at the Dockers, even Jack Hannath looked to be ahead of him in the pecking order! But with the mystical bird Griffin going down in Round 7  he’s shot up to number one. Tonned up in his first game (against the Swans at the SCG too, thank you very much). A pretty mobile player, pick him if you would have picked Griffin last year.

Nic Naitanui $417,700 b/e 103 Not only is this bloke a game winner in AFL (Being at the ground last Friday was AWESOME!), I think he can be one in DT. Averaging 85 last year, I think he can take the step to an elite ruckman which is a 90+ average. He attends enough centre bounces (as a ruckman OR rover) and is almost another inside midfielder around the ground. Cheap as chips now, I get worried about Cox’s output now he is back.

 

Forwards

Mitch Robinson ($419,500, b/e 82) The Taswegian has fallen out of favour with DTer’s this season, having been given more accountable roles from Mick and has dropped right off the radar. Has had better recent form, averaging 93 in his past three and is pretty cheap. Has a Round 13 bye which is good for the forward line (They all seem to be Round 12).

Brent Staker ($132,600) – Could be mentioned in the defenders but think he is going to be more popular in the forwards given the lack of downgrade options down here. A first up 61 was useful and should get better and average in the 70s, but more importantly, play through the bye rounds. You could give him another week though as he’s only played one game.

Jarryd Roughead ($453,800 b/e 38)  The beautiful Hawk has hit form and is averaging 100 in his last five games with a more than useful 118 last week against the Giants. Calvin’s smokey captain choice this week, he could go big. I’m not totally sold as statistics say that Roughy has to kick at least four goals to get a ton, so you might as well treat him like a KPP. More useful as a ruck, where he is the fourth-highest averaging ruckman.

Stubby’s Holders and Folders

FOLD THEM ALL! I can’t find any reasons to hold any of the players in the top 10 traded out this week. The only reason you would hold a player is if you had bigger problems ie LTIs or the perennial headaches that are Heath Shaw or Beau Waters.

Something I should mention was my call to hold Daisy Thomas last week. I still stand by that call. As last year taught us with Swan and Ablett, prognoses can change from week one to week two and sometimes for the better. I still like the idea of holding an injured player for one week to make sure the full story is out. There will always be players who miss for more (read Pendles and Buddy last year and Gibbs this year) but I still like to make sure if there is a chance for them to return early. Despite there being 44 trades this year – they’re still gold.

 The Ty Vickery Award

The contenders..

Majak Daw – pretty rough to include a five-game player in here, but he does teach us a lesson: rookies cannot be trusted form week to week. People who traded him in and put him on the field last week will understand. Let him sot on your bench and make money!

Garrick Ibbotson – Got a bit more attention from the Swans and rewarded his coaches with a frustrating 65. A backman coached by Ross Lyon people!

but the winner is – and this one hurts
Birch

Boy was I up and about at the start of the season when I lauded Birchall as my ‘pick of the season’. Birchall has averaged 55 in his last three and got that extra attention we all feared in the pre-season. Has lost just under $100k in the last two weeks, coaches are going to ride this one out and prey he can get back to his consistent best.

 

 

 

 

 

Running Review

Probably paid the price for doing a double downgrade last week and scored a below par 2050. The Pig hurt a little as captain, but not as much as Birchall or Danger. Back to 1300th in ranking, but the one step back should hopefully mean two steps forward. Webster and Gazza come in this week for Mayes and Wines. Only have two people not playing in my whole squad and looking to get back into the top 1000 this week. Also looking to get some redemption for  a GF loss this week! Bring it!

 

How you looking this week?

 

Discuss it all below!

As always give me a follow on Twitter @jimbobholder

146 Comments

  • HI all how can i join the national school competetion please help

  • Seriously looking at Stevenson & Pittard to Thurlow & Webster as I have a crap opponent this week. Really hope Mayes doesn’t get vested as I have no bench cover. Next Week it will be Neade & Mayes to Staker & Rd. 13 premo (probably Robbo)

  • How do i join the national school competetion on dream team pls help?

  • Shroder been announced in sidefor Geelong this weekend,
    Stevenson > Thurlow
    Pittard > Webster
    or
    Viney > Shroder?
    Which 2?!?!?!?

  • I know you said just flip a coin on thrulow or webster but im really not sure who has the better js or higher point scoring???

    • that’s the point mate, there’s not really much between them so take a punt and grab whichever.

      For me, Thurlow wins by a nose but honestly I don’t think there is any difference between them. I’m picking Thurlow because he’s the first name I thought of

  • Anyone else have 4 rucks? I have Maric and Burger in my ruck and Cox and Roughie in the Forward line!

    Not too worried, I am bound to drop Burger once I have my other team issues fixed up, so he can become a FWD premo via DPP (maybe Buddy?) and not sure what will happen to Maric. He hasn’t impressed me this year so he might get the sideways drop to a FWD premo as well. Reckon a ruck combo of Cox/Roughie is one I’d be happy to take into my league finals (and I’m WAY too far gone to worry about overall ranking). Plus even if I didn’t trade Maric, I wouldn’t mind having Cox/Roughie floating between the rucks and fwds…

  • Hey guys, I’m thinking about upgrading Viney to either Watson (Safe bet and lowest price he will be) or N. Reiwoldt. Every week he keeps scoring consistantly well and has a great run coming up (dogs, nm, west coast, bye, melbourne etc). Each week I say “if he scores well ill think about brining him in” and he hasnt seemed to slow down yet! ideas?

    • I think I would bring Watson in.

      Watson is very consistent, and will be for the whole season. I can’t help but think N.ROO is BOUND to drop off at some stage. Plus he is a real chance to be rested as the season progresses. Bring in Watson for his consistency in my opinion

      • Thanks for your help fellas. Just needed to be swayed one way or the other. Roo is just so tempting for a punt hah

    • Jet Jobe N roo is overpriced atm

  • Need some help this week have locked in Stevenson to Thurlow this wk but for my second trade should i go sub mayes into middle and bring in Jobe leaving me no cover for Stevie J or just go mayes to roughead leaving me with caff emergency, thanks :)

    • Whatever you do leave cover somehow. I get too stressed out otherwise hah

  • wright out has completely changed my plans! i initially had stevenson and hartlett out for ellis and thurlow. this means i have to play dwyer and macaffer.
    instead im looking at wright> franklin and stevenson> thurlow. just a couple of tips would be great, i really didnt want to miss ellis and hartlett gives me the shits. should i just take dwyer and caff?

  • Another great article JimBob!
    My team had another good week, scoring a solid 2197 and I rose to 205 in the rankings. I would have cracked 2200 this week if I put Ablett as captain instead of Martin.

    Trades this week are Stevenson and Mayes to Thurlow and Natanui. If Jacobs doesn’t score 80+ this week he will be traded out for premo forward next week.

  • Ok I’m going Watson regardless of bye situation. worse comes to worse I will sideways trade.

    My concern is Wright has been named on extended bench. Sub risk?

  • Im stuck on this decision, Trade Mayes to Staker and gain cash for upgrades or not because mayes was starting for me and staker would replace him??

    • rumours say theres a chance of staker not playing, if youve got dpp connections, get thurlow or webster. otherwise an upgrade to a cheap premo or even spangher would be good

  • Jones or Wines on the field?

  • I would take caff and dwyers score both are in good form, and Ellis will be worth more than hartlett next week.

  • Jones will struggle to score against freo but wines has a tough match against Geelong, and he doesn’t score well in losses. It’s a flip of the coin but I’d pick Wines.

  • decided on stevo and hartlett to ellis and thurlow. just means im playing caff and dwyer both. next week bringing in buddy for wright and staker for mayes.the likeliness of no carnage happening to my team though is unlikely so quite pointless planning that far ahead haha. though do i start goodes or suban this weekend?

    • suban is chopping at the moment & plays melbourne, though he is named on the bench so could is a sub risk

  • Start goodes or terlich?

  • who would u trade out of mayes, hartlett, neade, rowe or goodes

    • well i traded hartlett last week, neade and mayes (or rowe if mayes plays well and avoids the vest) are next week for me then I’ll consider goodes but I have more problems. You really should have pissed hartlett off last week, now you need to decide if you think he will come good or keep spudding it up because that’s a lot of cash lost if you trade him now.

  • goodes or suban to start?

  • Have locked in Stevenson>Thurlow for my first trade
    Then should I go…
    Hartlett>Hanley
    OR
    Wines>Priddis

  • should i get thurlow or webster this week?

    • im getting both for stevenson/pittard but i would probably go thurlow if i could choose one