NixTrader for R7 – Which teams concede most 100s?

nixtrader

Well what a round.  Last Thursday seems a long time ago.  Coaches have lived a month’s worth of stress in the mean time.

My own personal tragedy was that I lost a league game to Dr.DreamTeam.  My team is cr*p, and I had 2 donuts to his full team, but I still got within 10 points … if Josh Kennedy had just kicked that last goal … sigh.  Grrr.

Anyway time to focus on next week and how to use our 2 trades wisely.  Good to see some premos drifting into the target range, particularly from WCE as I need to shift some byes into round 12.  Also good that more people are starting to see positive benefits of 2 trades locked in – like going to a club knowing you’re going to pull a threesome, you only have to work out who you want in it.

Scoring by Teams

Before we get onto the spreadsheet I have a table showing which teams are scoring the most DT points, and 100s, on average over the first 6 rounds.  More importantly which teams are conceding the most points and 100s on average.

Avg Team Pts to R6small

This data is used in the spreadsheet to show whether each player is likely to score more, or less, than usual over the next few weeks depending on their draw.

Magic Number  (N rated content)

Warning …. nerdy stuff ahead!   Non-nerds might want to put their Snuggies over their eyes for next few paragraphs.

@TSWalesy at TooSerious (mainly a Supercoach website) belled the cat last week and showed how Supercoach Gold was underestimating BEs and overestimating future prices.

I am a happy Assistant Coach subscriber and user, so I am not suggesting people shouldn’t get AC.  However, users should be aware that AC does the same thing –  by default it uses MN from the current round going forward.  This assumption is OK for later in the year when MN levels out and starts to bounce around.  [See MN graph in NixTrader spreadsheet].  However it is overly optimistic for the first part of the year when MN is falling.

MN behaviour was going to be a bit of an unknown this year with no new expansion team – we have less rookies and their scoring is more vest effected in traditional teams.  So the MN fall was always going to be less than pre Gold Coast era, but it is still there.

If you are getting BEs or price projections from any site or source you should try to understand how that source is doing their calculations and what bias they might have.  AC users should be aware that long term price projections for players are a bit on the high side.  Although now the issue has been called, I suspect AC might try to improve their calculations if they can do so easily.

OK  … so back to G rated content

NixTrader spreadsheet

Changes this week:

  • Structure:  Spreadsheet has been reorganised.  The contents tabs was removed since the links didn’t travel well, and remainder is now split into 2 tabs.
  • Players & Trades tab: this tab includes My Team, Trade Options and I’m Stalking all of which have the same layout.
    • The historical data such as each round score has been moved to the right hand side as this is going to keep getting bigger with each new round
    • There is more statistical information – each player is ranked by average and total points scored.  How many DT teams they are in is also shown.
    • The Trade Options ranking part, has a second box to show if it is better or worse to wait a week for each trade option (although there is a bit more work to be done on part of this).
  • Structure & Byes tab: this tab includes the Team Structure, The Bye Rounds and and new chart showing Magic Number over time (now that’s something you don’t see often).

 

Here is link to download spreadsheet (excel2007) – NixTRader2013 R7 pub

If you used the spreadsheet from previous rounds, you can just select your blocks of players’ names from there and copy + paste them into this round’s spreadsheet.

Any comments, questions or suggestions please post below or tweet to @NixTrader

 

————————– notes below are mostly the same each week ——————————————-

Brief instructions:

  • You only have to enter information into the green cells, the other cells are protected to prevent any errors.
  • Confirm or change Magic Number estimate for the end of next two rounds.  I have put in values for MN, but if you think you know enough about MN to prefer other numbers you can change them.
  • Enter your players using the drop down menu.  In the menu only the players who fit that position are named in full, other players are reduced to 3 letters.  If you used the spreadsheet from previous rounds you should be able to select and copy groups of players from there into this spreadsheet.
  • For each player in your team data is pulled up automatically.
  • A projection for that player headed “Points Proj.”.  This is used as default in the calculations.  If a player has played more than 3 games this is their current average; if less than 3 games the projection is calculated from their starting price.
  • There are 2 green cells to enter the actual scores (or your estimates) for your players for the next 2 rounds.  Based on these scores the last other columns calculate the averages, BEs, price change and new prices after the rounds.
  • If you leave any cell blank, the calculation assumes the player gets their 2013 base score for that round – i.e. the score in column headed “Points Proj.” is used as default in the calculations.
  • The player has to play 3 games for their price to change, so if the players miss games their price change won’t happen until after they play 3 games.
  • If one of your players misses a round, put an “n” in the green cell for that round.  The calculations for the next round will then update to take account of this.
  • There is a section to show the next 5 teams that player will face.  At the right of these 5 teams there are 4 percentages.  These show the variation in points and 100 scores that are predicted to come from playing that string of teams, over the next 3 and 5 weeks.  Percentages are based on the number of points and 100s each team has conceded so far this season.  Positive percentage says this run of teams is expected to concede more points and hundreds than average; negative percentage says these teams are likely to concede less points and hundreds than average.

 

FAQ:

  • Why are these calculations different to other published BEs and valuations?
    • Everyone’s calculations depend on their assumptions about Magic Number, projections of future scores and how they round averages and values.  This spreadsheet should replicate any other published calculations if you make the same projections, including changing the magic number.  However, this spreadsheet is unique in that it allows you to change the estimates to do your own analysis.
  • Tech talk:
    • You need a device and software that supports microsoft excel 2007 spreadsheets to be able to open and use the spreadsheet.  It won’t open on mobiles or tablets unless you have software or apps that support excel files.
    • Even if you have other software that claims to support Excel files, the file still might not work properly, as every excel formula might not be supported.  This current file uses array formulas, I expect many non-excel spreadsheets won’t support array formulas, despite supporting other excel like functions.

47 Comments

  • Thats it, I think its time to bring in Gaz, but I will still be keeping Swan. I don’t think the Swan man is good enough 4 Captain anymore. If Dane doesn’t get over 120 this week then I’ll be tossing up between S Selwood or Stevie J.

    • finally someone speaking some sense.. rather than just oinking non stop and saying “lock swan”. ablett will score more than swan this week.. without a doubt.

      • Swan is the pig for a reason, no other player in the history of DT has started the season with a 117.5 average and it has been considered poor. there isnt even the price argument because you pay for two swans

      • this week gaz plays melb and swan plays freo. they’re as contrasting as schedules get and i’m going with ablett. but all things equal swan is the better dter

        • Swan’s last game v’s Freo = 172 DT pts…….not bad hey. Oink oink!!! ;-)

    • the guy has barely got out of 2nd gear.

      he is just warming up…

    • The bloke who’s scored the 2nd most points for the season, isn’t good enough for the C anymore…..

      Makes sense…..

      • nope. last week murphy was a better option. this week ablett is. it is quite simple really.

        • with every other player including gaz you have the possibility of a sub-100 score, swan on the other hand is guaranteed a 105+ score barring injury

        • It’s not about trying to pick a different captain every week, if you try that you will ultimately fail because of the potential in inconsistencies that most players have i.e this week you could go Danger based on this for example. Sure Danger could come pout and get 150 but he could also play in a forward pocket and get 70… It’ more about picking the guy who is un-tagable who can play in rain or dry and who is a big time player every week… That guy for the last two seasons has been Mr Consistent Dane the Pig Swan. enough said… Oink, oink.

        • everybody’s and expert in hindsight. were watson and stanton better options against GWS too?

        • I was glad i went with swan last week, especially after the bloke i would have replaced him with (stanton) got injured.

        • Ok, you go chase the handful of random players who score higher than Swan each week, I guarantee you will lose out poits in the long run.

          Is this your first year playing DT?

          • no, it isn’t. so far this year choosing a captain other than swan has gotten me more points and more league victories. i have swan in my team.

            is this your first year being a dumbass?

      • toally agree! Don’t see how Swanny can’t be a reliable option averaging 117. Thtas 234 a week and yiu guys aren’t happy. Sure you can occasioanly get better scores (Stevie J, Ablett, Watson) but at the end of the day the pig is gonna have the most points.

        • in round 1, and round 5 Ablett was a better performer than Swan as so far this year he has not totally excelled as although he may be a lock for 110+ there are always people who will score more and you have to be willing to take the risk as it could get you over the line

    • you’re insane, i’d put C on swanny for every round except the freo ones at patersons.

    • I know of someone who thought Watson a better captain choice than Swan last week…
      Look how that turned out.

    • what’s all this crazy-talk… I hate C/wood with passion but you must lock-C on the pig. The numbers scream for themselves. Currently no. 2 in the comp overall and with PAFC looking like they’ve hit the wall it will only be a few weeks before K Cornes drops way off the pace… only other contender for mine is S.Selwood due to WCE easy run – but I don’t really chase conceded scores, been burnt many times in the past. Keep calm, lock Swan. nuf said

  • Oink, oink, oink.

  • Keep Calm.

  • Will Whitfield play this week???

  • Thanks for all the effort put in again Nix.
    DT points conceded one of the best stats to use IMO.
    Interesting to see Collingwood so far down on that list. Pretty sure last season they were up with GWS! Still early rounds I suppose…

  • Is the download link not working for anyone else?.. Or is it just me?

    • Check which version of Excel you are running.

      I don’t think it will open on a version less than Excel 2007.

    • Works when I tested it, and haven’t had any reports of it not working …

      Left click on link … opens up “save as” file dialogue box.

      What happens to you?

      • Sorry I meant the speadsheet isn’t opening once downloaded, keeps coming up with “File corrupt” must be a problem on my end

    • works fine

  • Can someone tell me why everyone wants to trade in Dale Thomas on the back of one very decent score? After he had a very average 2012..

    • Exactly. And a run of Freo, Syd, Hawks does not inspire confidence.

      Get Wellingham or LeCras from the Eagles. They have:

      Bris
      NM
      GWS
      Melb
      Saints

      In next 5. You could nary ask for a better run than that.

      • Agreed – gr8 run 4 WCE over the next 5, maybe they myt actually start winning a few games – all currently lower then them on the ladder and that’s saying something :P

    • because steve j is too exepnsive and franklin is leaking money

    • Easy Ben, he had a very average 2012 and still averaged 92….imagine if he has a half decent 2013. Averaged 104 in 2011 and 98.5 in 2010. Those are pretty good stats for a DT fwd…….especially at his price.

  • And I am a Collingwood supporter..

  • Trade or Keep Josh Kennedy from West Coast (Iwas thinking him for Johnson or someone else.

  • Hey guys, if pittard doesn’t get up need to bring someone in was thinking either shaw or enright, opinions would be appreciated would leave waters an Gibbs on the bench

  • Brilliant as always. I love the changes, makes it much easier on my little netbook!

  • Thanks for the article.
    This week I’m thinking of getting rid of Heath (close to topping out) and zorko (stupid stupid mistake as he’s not a premium).
    That leaves me enough for a rookie like Laird and Stevie J. Or should I go to Daisy and use the extra $130k next week to get a premium elsewhere?

  • Good stuff Nix and very much appreciated! Please keep it coming. It is cool to see the evidence behind the intuition that the fixture list should be a variable considered in trading and the selection of c.

    Walesy’s stuff on B/E’s was interesting and a good read. Kinda makes the point that in fantasy life and real life if you just accept the numbers people (some of whom have an agenda) give you then you should not be surprised if you get “beaten up” know and then.

    A loss to Dr DT – lmfao, it puts you in a very small minority amigo. That said I had better check when I am playing him.