Jeppa’s Juniors – Round 5

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It was always going to be a matter of time until our depth was going to be tested. Gibbs and Goodes are confirmed outs this week and Pittard and Heath are in a race against time to be fit for the weekend. Aside from the backline, Dwyer had a disappointing ANZAC day game and could be dropped, Kommer is no guarantee to come straight back into a hot Essendon team after serving his suspension and Crouch will have at least one more week on the sidelines. It gets worse, there aint a lot to get excited about from the boys on the bubble this week and coaches will need to decide whether or not to trade in ‘juniors’ that haven’t been entirely convincing to date.

Three-Or-More Gamers

Sam Mayes (FWD/MID, 111, $231,800 & BE -44) and Jaeger O’Meara (MID, 115, $273,600 & BE -19) were exceptional on the weekend. Mayes ran hard from start to finish and had 19 kicks, 9 handballs, 9 marks and 2 tackles in the game. Jaeger was brilliant all over the ground and is this week’s NAB Rising Star. Sleep easy and continue to start these two on the field.

Dreamteam coaches that currently own Matt Jones (MID, 66, $264,700 & BE 4), Dean Terlich (DEF, 85, $212,100 & BE -18) and/or Michael Evans (MID, 67, $180,400 & BE -67) should be very happy after their efforts against the Lions. Jones and Evans were on fire in first quarter but unfortunately couldn’t maintain their dominance for the whole game and Terlich was named in the bests for the Dees after finishing with 14 kicks, 10 handballs, 6 marks and 2 tackles. Keep these three for a while yet.

The Port brigade of Ollie Wines (MID, 72, $360,300 & BE 48), Lewis Stevenson (DEF, 82, $224,400 & BE -12), Campbell Heath (DEF, 69, $235,100 & BE -5), Cameron O’Shea (DEF, 88, $268,000 & BE 7) and Jake Neade (FWD/MID, 68, $226,800 & BE 18) broke my heart after they dominated play in the last quarter and erased a 41 point deficit to pinch victory from the Eagles. I’d start thinking about trading out Neade in a week or two as he looks like topping out at $270,000. Stevenson scored well on the weekend but turned the ball over too many times for my liking and I suspect that he’ll be dropped for Pittard if he overcomes his hip flexor injury, so be prepared.

Lachie Whitfield (MID, 68, $270,300 & BE 12) was pretty good against the Suns and finished with 7 kicks, 10 handballs, 5 marks and 3 tackles. Whitfield has a couple of decent prices risers left in him so don’t trade him out just yet but I’d start him on the bench this week since he comes up against a hard and fast Essendon midfield. Brett Goodes’ (DEF/MID, 61, $274,100 & BE -8) two week suspension really hurts but I advise not to trade him out. Goodes’ breakeven is still negative and if he continues to score his average of 79 then he should reach a price of $350,000 before the Bulldogs bye in Round 11.

Brent Macaffer (FWD, 60, $210,300 & BE 5), Lachie Plowman (DEF, 51, $171,500 & BE 30), Nathan Wright (DEF, 50, $134,100 & BE 14) and Dane Rampe (MID, 54, $119,100 & BE -20) were ok from a football perspective but they’ll need to improve their dreamteam scoring quickly if their owners are going to stick by them. It should be noted that Macaffer’s job security looks more secure after Buckley suggested that he is likely to play the Toovey role in defence for the Pies (source).

Underrated players George Horlin-Smith (MID, 81, $197,600 & BE -29), Jackson Merrett (MID, 65, $204,800 & BE 14) and Callum Sinclair (FWD/RUC, 67, $189,000 & BE -2) continue to surprise me. If Nic Nat returns this week then Sinclair owners will have to settle for a total price increase of $83,700.

Whether it was because of injury or poor form, Sam Rowe (FWD/RUC, 31, $187,500 & BE 22), Sam Dwyer (FWD/MID, 47, $217,900 & BE 13), Luke Brown (DEF, 20, $179,700 & BE 28) and Mark Blicavs (RUC/MID, 22, $161,100 & BE 44) all performed poorly on the weekend. If you own Blicavs and/or Brown then trade them out as soon as you can.

I thought goal kicking midfielders were ideal sub candidates not half back defenders like Jack Hutchins (DEF, 31, $190,700 & BE 20)? Unfortunately, for his owners, Hutchins copped the green vest but on the plus side he managed to score 31 dreamteam points in a quarter and a bit.

Two Gamers

Max Gawn (RUC, 58, $108,500 & BE -73) is arguably the most promising of the two gamers this week. He had 5 kicks, 7 handballs, 2 marks, 11 hitouts and 2 goals and played the forward/ruck role perfectly. Big Gawny has the best job security of the two gamers so if you want a steady earner then trade him in. The affectionate Setanta O’hAilpin (FWD/RUC, 61, $157,700 & BE -39) used his might and man love to good effect against the Suns on the weekend. Other than kissing Stephen Coniglio on the forehead, Setanta collected 9 kicks, 4 handballs, 2 marks, 1 hitout and 3 goals playing predominantly at full forward. O’hAilpin’s DPP eligibility and job security justifies the extra spend but if you just want a ruck back up then trade in Gawn.

Marco Paparone (FWD/MID, 45, $107,200 & BE -50) was up and down against a loose checking Melbourne side. His quarter-by-quarter scores were 0, 37, 0 and 8, therefore when he finds a bit of consistency there’s no doubt that he’ll be a handy acquisition. Paparone’s skill and hard running puts him in the best 25 at Brisbane but if you’re planning on trading him in, make sure it’s as a back up only as I suspect he’ll cop the odd vest or two. Sam Kerridge (FWD/MID, 30, $108,500 & BE -43) is playing as a tagger and sacrificing his game to limit the influence of his direct opponent. After successfully stopping Ryan Griffen, Kerridge was given the job on Gibbs and then ran with Judd in the second half after Gibbs got injured. His score of 30 is a concern especially when that includes 7 tackles but if he can win more footy then expect 70+ scores. It’s a tough call between Kerridge and Paparone so if you need to decide between the two then lean towards Paparone because he has a great goal sense and in my opinion a higher ceiling.

Jake Stringer (FWD, 58, $165,700 & BE 20) will be a regular in the Bulldogs forward line for the rest of the year, mark my words. He’s got great hands and is an imposing figure for a teenager. Stringer had 10 touches and kicked three goals. He’ll get better in the short term but his dreamteam scoring output isn’t appealing for a player priced at $165,700. If you are worried about Paparone and Kerridge’s job security then pick up Stringer, but if you are all about making money quickly then stay away. Sebastian Ross (MID, 41, $144,300 & BE 26) is another expensive rookie that isn’t scoring well. He had 17 possessions but 10 were handballs and as an inside midfielder had no tackles. It’s a big no for Ross.

Majak Daw (RUC, 39, $108,500 & BE 4) and Tom Lee (FWD, 30, $108,500 & BE -9) struggled in their respective games and were subsequently red vested. Daw failed to capitalise on two very easy set shots in a close match so expect him to be on the outer. Lee unfortunately is a while away from being competitive at AFL level so stay away.

Jackson Macrae (MID, 25, $161,200 & BE 10), Sam Docherty (DEF, 21, $108,500 & BE -13) and Rory Laird (DEF, 81, $108,500 & BE -54) were green vested and only Laird played more than a quarter and a half. Macrae is a rookie that is far too pricey and Docherty is a risky prospect since Voss loves dressing him in green so that leaves only Laird. When he came on for Tex Walker, Laird played in the back pocket on Carlton’s dangerous small forwards. He had a purple patch in the third quarter scoring 42 dreamteam points after trying to generate some attack from defence. If you’re desperate for a cheap defender then trade in Laird but don’t expect huge scores even after his 81 from three quarters this week.

One Gamers

Nick Vlastuin (DEF/MID, 51, $147,700 & BE -12) went out all guns blazing and had an impressive 49 dreamteam points to half time but couldn’t continue it in the second half. Vlastuin showed fight playing off a half back flank and proved that he can match it at AFL level, he just needs to contribute consistently over four quarters. With much of the backline carnage already confirmed for this week, I suspect more pain may come Thursday night when Vlastuin is dropped for Morris who comes back after serving his one week suspension.

Josh Saunders (DEF/MID, 38, $102,700 & BE -13) was the only first gamer to receive the green vest this week. He came on half way through the third quarter and added some ‘life’ to the Saints midfield with his pace and tackling pressure.  Saunders will get another go this week and a full game at that so watch him closely. Teammate Brodie Murdoch (FWD, 34, $102,700 & BE -5) had a tougher time finding the footy. He played predominantly at half forward and at times pushed up on a wing but struggled to have an impact. Murdoch ‘s quiet game will likely see him dropped for Milne this week (source).

Jack Hannath (RUC, 23, $102,700 & BE -17) played a forward, ruck role but had little impact until taking a big mark on the Richmond half forward line when the game was in the balance. With Kepler Bradley gone for the year, Hannath is likely to play a fair chunk of senior footy for Freo so watch him closely this weekend against the Gold Coast. Zach Williams (MID, 46, $89,300 & BE -37) was rewarded with a senior berth after some good NEAFL form but failed to impress in my opinion. We all love a rookie priced player but he’ll need to play out of his skin this week before he is considered.

I have little faith in Bradley Helbig (DEF, 20, $153,500 & BE 54) and Justin Clarke (DEF, 36, $108,500 & BE -6). Helbig did little on the field for Richmond and was subsequently subbed out in the third quarter and Clarke had very few possessions against an unaccountable Melbourne team.

Keep Your Eye On

Jesse Lonergan – was BOG for the Suns reserves in his first game back from a fractured wrist and I am expecting him to make his debut this weekend. You’ll need to trade in Lonergan at some point over the next three rounds!

Kyle Martin – may be upgraded off the rookie list with Toovey gone for the season. He’s an inside midfielder who can be a handful up forward. In his four VFL games this year, Martin has averaged 24 disposals and 3 goals a game. Buckley loves rewarding good form so watch this space!

 

Got a question? Ask me on Twitter @JeppaDT.

147 Comments

  • great article jeppaa but i really need some help

    Def- Gibbs, Goodes, heppel, golby, pittard, waters (stevenson, heath)
    Mid- swan, ablett, swallow, thompson, moloney, wines, whitfield, omeara (vines, evans)
    Ruc- leuy, daw (rowe, currie)
    Fwd- hoff, kennedy, martin, lewis, breust, mayes (neade, macaffer)
    500k in bank

    i really need to fix up my second ruck. so thinking of going hoff to cox and then swap cox for rowe and bench daw. then maybe moloney for stevie J. and then move stevie J into fwds using neade as DPP. that is if my 3 port rookies play otherwise instead of the moloney trade i will trade either gibbs or goodes for someone.

    thoughts please???????????

  • TROUBLE WITH PORT PLAYERS:

    Option 1: Monfries > Leuenberger (Move Cox in FWD) and Gibbs > Gibson/Masten

    Option 2: Monfries > Gawn/Laird (Moving players trough DPP trade) and Gibbs > S.Gibson/C.Masten

    Option 3: Monfries > Gibson/Masten and Gibbs > S. Mitchell (Move Goodes in DEF)

    With all options currently plan on selling Gibbs and Monfries since they both have high BE’s and Gibbs in ‘injured’. Am keeping Goodes and Pittard since they have achievable BE’s and are more of a chance to come in B4 Gibbs.

    I would love to take the risk of one of Gibson and Masten since their fixtures are really good the next 2-4 weeks. And for the past few years they have smashed it against the bum teams. Prefering Masten although higher BE of 94 (compared to Gibson’s 79) Masten has a higher average, bit more consistent and has 4 easy teams coming up (compared to Gibson’s 2) These thoughts came to mind when re-reading Warnie’s Preseason post: http://dreamteamtalk.com/2013/04/02/do-guns-score-more-against-weaker-opposition/ about who scores high against weak opposition.

    With a low ranking-than hoped for (compared to last year)-and having $250,000 in the bank for this weeks trades. Tossing up between getting high scores or downgrade options and cash. (Downgrade options are low next 2 weeks)

    Although Leuenberger has already jumped in priced he still has a single digit BE (7) and will average 80-95 this year (Definite keeper). So i try to put aside that i got him late but i put ahead that he’s gonna get points and cash.

    All 3 options leave me with at least $50,000-$150,000 in the bank for next week so some upgrading could be good.

    SORRY ABOUT IT BEING SO LONG BUT IF YOU MANAGED TO FIND THE TIME TO READ PLEASE LEAVE SOME FEEDBACK. also recommend you going back to Warnies post:
    http://dreamteamtalk.com/2013/04/02/do-guns-score-more-against-weaker-opposition/ (GREAT INFO)

    CHEERS!!!

  • Fantastic as always Jeppa.
    What are the chances of Viney returning for the Dees because I face a doughnut (not including trades) if he is out?

  • should i play rowe or gawn?

  • Not really sure where to ask this, i dont know of a ‘Which Rookie to Start’ article, (i think there was one last year)

    Anyway, Whitfield or Jones, i just cant get this right

  • These are the weeks that can make or break you! Knee-jerk trades can derail so best to assess your actual chance of winning this week along with trades to be made. Taking a hit may allow you to position better for the upcoming weeks. Trading out a high BE like Hodge or suspended Fyfe, sub Goodes/ Gibbs to mid and bring in Laird. You’ve pocketed near 300-350k, rookie rises 80k in 2 weeks, donut avoided, Waters or Birch drops 40k, you’re better placed. You’ve got 2 trades so if no “pick me” rooks then get creative. So many options and strategies to review. I love DT!!!

  • I have multiple trade options which I am tossing up. Walker OUT, Stevie J IN and Westhoff/Karny OUT, Murphy/Winderlich IN.
    Thoughts on Winderlich would be appreciated. Can he be a consistent scorer?
    With walker – Stevie J trade nearly settled on I could also do something like Gawn IN, Blicavs OUT OR Laird IN, Pittard OUT for my second trade.

    • Do you have the 3 defenders of death (Gibbs, Goodes, Pittard)?

      • No I have Goodes and Pittard, but Stevenson is my 6th defender this week along with the normal 5 I have

  • WHAT HAS HAPPEN TO VINEY??? HE’S NOT ON THE INJURY LIST AND HASN’T PLAYED VFL??? HE HAS FLOWN OFF THE RADAR

  • What would you do?

    Team
    Birchall, heppel, hartlett, gibbs, goodes, terlich, (pittard, stevenson)
    Swan, GAJ, Pendles, Wines, JK, Fyfe, Omeara, whitfield ( viney, crouch)
    Cox berger (that doesn’t sound like a good combo… Rowe, Blicavs)
    Rock, Kennedy,Martin, Bartel, Dwyer, Mayes (Caff, Neade)

    $105,000 in the Barry Bank!

    Dilemma is to choose between these two options:

    Gibbs to burgoyne/goddard and fyfe to Watson

    or

    Blicavs to Gawn and fyfe to watson

    Option 1 means no donuts but I miss out on any cash generation by Gawn as Blicavs has run his race and is has as much hope of cracking the 50 as Jason Akermanis has of winning a game of sleeping lions.

    • Blicavs is a wasted trade.

      • I disagree, jump on Gawn now! Blicavs hasnt been setting the world on fire, and is more than likely to start dropping value this week

      • I seeing this “blicavs is a wasted trade” I don’t quite understand?
        If Gawn can play the next 4-5 games with an average of 50-60 he will be around 220-250? + the 50k u make from blicavs? The long term differential in cash compared to some other sideways trades is uncomparable

        • Blicavs has risen what $50K? It’s just not worth it. You might make $50K out of the trade and $150K over the next few weeks, but for a player you won’t even use, it’s a lot. Blicavs will probably drop in value, but you’re essentially wasting a trade to prevent what a $5K drop. I’m with Shags on this one. Bad move.

          • It’s more then a 5k drop, If you do not trade him now then I dont think you will trade him all year and then it truly would be a wasted trade. You wont trade him after a price drop to a player like hannath who has just as bad scores and less JS. Each to their own the way i see it if you can afford to trade him, then now is the time. It is only round 6 unless you are facing donuts cash is priority IMO

  • I’d be happy keeping him all year. Hey, you make your Blicavs > Gawn trade, I’m grabbing an underpriced Selwood and an in-form Swallow this week.

  • Good arguments for and against. Reality is, I didn’t want to miss out on some rookie cash but if I decide to to do that, it means my team isn’t as strong (and I’ll have to wait 4-5 weeks to see the benefit from Gawn) and I’ll be sacrificing points and overall leaderboard drop. There will be other opportunities like currie or someone similar come along where I can offload in a few weeks anyway, I guess Blicavs price probably wont change over that period so no harm done! Think the lack of quality from the the players on the bubble and how crap Blicavs is got me worried…. thanks for the feedback!

  • end of the day its watson & goddard versus watson and gawn, i’ll take the points now thanks and wait for a better rookie to come along to make some cash (hopefully don’t have to wait too long!)

    • Yeah it all depends on the trades you can make now. I never said that i was going to make the blic -> gawn trade, I just keep seeing people throw people down when they mention it. It needs to be thought about carefully and look beyond this weeks score everyone’s team will have better/worse trades to make and everyone has their own opinion.

    • My formula. Short-term pain for long term gain. Gawn has good Job security. Likely to play every week. Will go up in value 50k roughly,and over the next 4-5 rounds a increase of 100k. Blicav is stagnant, atm there arent that many other rookie options, other than currie, but who knows when he will play. Im jumping on the Gawn Express!

  • you should i trade in Nick Vlastuin or Josh Saunders