Tbetta’s Bullets: Round 5

tbetta_bullets

  • Round 5 Clichés

“When it rains, it pours” – We’ve been blessed with a reasonably clear run injury and suspension-wise in the first month of fantasy AFL, and I’m surely not the only one who felt like it was merely the calm before the storm. While Round 5 unleashed a cyclone on our Dream Teams, it was the pinpoint nature of this barrage of bad luck aimed towards our backlines that will have us at panic stations with our trades this week.

“You’ve got to risk it to get the biscuit”Swanny’s 120 was looped by many coaches, and most took the ‘safe’ option of points in the bank. Yes, those who chose to take a punt on Ablett (131), Rockliff (125) and Stevie J (141) were rewarded with a small boost in points; but it was more the bold decision not to loop Swan that benefited a lot of coaches. With Pittard a late withdrawal, anyone who had Hanley or Stevenson as a Loophole Captain risked it and only got a soggy biscuit in return.

She says they miss the old Drake, girl don’t tempt me” – Replace the ‘she’ with ‘DT coaches’ and ‘Drake’ with ‘Justin Westhoff’ and the lyrics of Headlines kind of applies to the bearded Port forward. Once an inconsistent underachiever, the Hoff teased us with a 128-point average over the first four weeks of the season but drifted back into his old ways in Round 5.

“You get what you pay for” – This was particularly true with both upgrades this week. For those tossing up between Murphy and Ablett in the midfield this week, Smurph would have earned you 115 points, and finding the extra coin for Ablett was rewarded with the extra points with his 131 against the Giants. Likewise, those who were too cheap to snap up Mayes (111) and went with Evans (67) instead still get a great cash cow, but miss out on a short-term forward line starter and the additional 20-30 points that will deliver each week.

 

  • Polling and Trolling

Polling R5

3. Fresh Rooks

Sam Mayes (111) and Michael Evans (67) were the big bubble rookies leading into Round 5, and both fulfilled their duties admirably at the weekend. At base draftee price, Evans shot up a huge $72k in his first price rise and looks like being a fast-maturing cash cow who’ll sit there fattening on the bench until you need to cull him for a quick cash influx. Mayes was a bit harder on the hip-pocket, but rewarded suitors with a straight-up $80k price-hike; with scores of 95, 75 and 111 in his first three games, Sam May is a must-start rookie in the forward line at this point.

2. Nick Riewoldt (153)

I’m not ashamed to admit that I was one of the many Riewoldt doubters prior to season 2013, with age and relevancy (due to St. Kilda’s seemingly inevitable demise) two massive hurdles that needed overcoming to be a legitimate DT option this year. His workman-like performance in Wellington totally contradicted that theory, boosting his seasonal average to 107, with a low of just 82. I’m not 100% convinced on him just yet (this may be due to my wariness of key forwards in general), but with very few Premium forward options to choose from these days, he should at least be firmly on your radar.

1. Scott Selwood (136)

Those who follow me on Twitter or tracked the Deck of DT this preseason know that I was all over Scooter to break-out this year after showing some encouraging signs in 2012. After the first two rounds (71 and 87) I was eerily quiet on the subject, wondering where it had all gone wrong. Since then, he’s posted scores of 142, 127 and 136 to be the highest-averaging players in the last three weeks. The secret to his success? At least 26 touches and 8 tackles a game in that time.

Honourable Mentions: Stevie J (141), Zorko (120), Dixon (119), Hartlett (116), O’Meara (115), S. Byrnes (110), D. Martin (99), Josh J Kennedy (98), M. Hibberd (97), Stevenson (82), Priddis (4).

 

Trolling R5

3. Jasper Pittard (LW)

In a normal week, who cares if Pittard misses? Historically, we’ve been able to throw a blanket over Pittard/Stevenson/Heath, and with most coaches having bench cover, it wouldn’t have been a big deal at all. Enter ANZAC Day and the opportunity for a little Loophole action, and suddenly Pittard’s tiny bit of soreness becomes a huge issue for fantasy coaches. Personally, I had Hanley © with Heath as an emergency, leaving me weeping over a donut for Pittard and still 82 points behind the rest of the competition, thanks to Stevenson notching 82 unused points on my bench.

2. Bryce Gibbs (54)

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Gibbs substitution was just a sly player management manoeuvre by Malthouse. We know players battle soreness and niggles all season, and I’m willing to bet my left jubbly that Gibbs would have pushed through a little bit of tightness if the game was against a Collingwood or a Geelong, and not against an out-of-sorts Adelaide – even if they were 30 points up at the time. With Melbourne coming up in Round 6, there’s no denying the incentive for Carlton to gift one of their stars an easy fortnight under the guise of ‘hamstring strain’. Luckily, we were all burned by his 54 points because every Barry Norman has him, but he does put us in a bit of hot water with other issues pressing issues in defence this weekend.

1. Justin Westhoff (45)

Aside from a sanity-restoring 45 points (I was starting to doubt whether I had any grasp of the game of AFL; Westhoff leading the competition in DT points was utterly bizarre), Westhoff has put the heat on his owners this week. Do we hold him, writing off this game as a one-off given his blistering early form? Or do we trade him, as his BE has climbed to 150 this week, and capitalise on the $121k he’s already made us? Interestingly, we might ultimately be saved/prevented from making a difficult call where he’s concerned thanks to incessant backline drama.

Dishonourable Mentions: Priddis (4), L. Brown (20), Docherty (21), Blicavs (22), Lee (30), Kerridge(30), Hutchins (31), Rowe(31), T. Walker  (35), Hodge (61), Franklin (62), Dangerfield (71).

 

  • Trade Ramblings

BACKLINE DRAMA

Okay, no more mucking around, let’s get all serious up in here. We all have backline issues, so that’ll be a big focus area for the masses. So let’s recap the carnage, in Bullet form:

  • Gibbs. Hamstring, 1-2 weeks
  • Hanley. Back from suspension, Test on knee though.
  • Goodes. Offered 2 weeks for errant elbow.
  • Pittard. Test on his boo-boo.
  • Heath. Test on sore leg.
  • Stevenson. JS issues – was initially dropped last week.

Then, to add insult to injury, we have very few promising rookie options that could possibly come in for a Goodes/Pittard if you needed to avoid a donut:

  • Laird. 81 last week, but still vest/JS issues. Best option at this stage.
  • Docherty. Sub last week (21), huge JS issues with Hanley possibly returning.
  • Vlastuin. Only played the one game (51), Premium priced ($148k) and JS issues with Morris/Conca returning on the horizon.
  • Saunders/Clark. Only played the one game, big scoring and JS concerns.
  • Frost. Will he come in for his third game given Toovey’s knee injury? Obvious scoring deficiencies though.

IT’S ALL ABOUT SECURITY

There’s a huge element of risk with all those guys. My thinking is that with our downgrades over the next month or so, our primary concern should be Job Security. This is because 1. They’ll likely be our later upgrades (after the rookies that have already fattened for us, ideally), so they need to be around for longer to make as much cash as possible. 2. We’ll need every troop we can get over the MBR’s. Yes, the Byes still exist, and we’re getting to the point where the players we’ll be bringing in now will very likely be around for them.

If that’s the case… we’re in a tight spot. I’ve had JS concerns for Docherty ever since he missed out on Round 1 selection, and while Vlastuin looks like he can mix it with the big boys, I’m not exactly thrilled about the prospect of parting with $150k-odd for someone who may not even get a third game. Laird might have to be a reluctant inclusion this week, taking the gamble on his long-term job security for some short-term relief. We have no excuse for donuts now with two trades per week.

TBB ScotlandPREMIUM SWAP

For this reason, we may need to consider trading Gibbs to cover a donut instead of searching for other rookies that just aren’t there. Like last week, Birchall ($527k, 111.8avg) and Hartlett ($458k, 96.2 avg) are still excellent options, while also consider Gibbs’ teammate in Scotland who has a BE of 116 – that’s a little high,  but remember that the Blues are running into Melb, St. K, Port, Lions and GWS in their next five, and you’d think Scotland ($473k) would slut it up against that lot.

RIPE FOR THE PICKING

Even outside of the backline, our Bubble Boys are thinning out fast. Max Gawn ($108,500, -73BE) could be a great “downgrade” option for Blicavs, who’s maxed out at $161k with a BE of 44 this week. He’s clearly having trouble reaching that figure, let alone exceeding it. MID/FWD hybrids Paparone ($107,200, -50 BE) and Kerridge ($108,500 -43 BE) were two rookies that I was optimistic about last week, but both were lukewarm at best in Round 5. Lee and O’hAilpin are both on the bubble as well, but I’d probably rather watch that Sydney vs St. Kilda game on loop for a week than trade those spuds into my side.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED

In a perfect world, I’d be engineering luxury trades like replacing Dangerfield or cashing in on Westhoff, but with all this backline Hollywood crap it’s looking increasingly unlikely. This doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be looking to improve out teams – in dark DT times in the past, I’ve always looked to galvanise my side, trying to turn a negative into a positive. Here are a couple of scenarios I’m contemplating in the next Bullet:

  • Galvanise

1. Pittard/Goodes OUT Laird/Premium IN (+ cash)

The classic downgrade/upgrade move will be a very popular one for coaches, particularly those lucky souls who have kept some change in the bank for a rainy day just like today. The downgrade will basically leave you with $370k plus whatever you have to find a replacement to your liking.

2. Two of Pittard/Heath/Goodes OUT Laird and Docherty/Vlastuin IN

The double downgrade will be a strong consideration for those with nothing in the bank and a desire to avoid trading out copping donuts while keeping Gibbs. Thursday Teams will help you make the choice between Docherty and Vlastuin, with Doch the preferred option on a pure capitalist basis.

3. Two of Pittard/Heath/Goodes OUT Laird and Ellis IN

This particular scenario is a little out of left-field, but there’s no doubting the value that Brandon Ellis can present if he can just avoid the sub vest long-term. The first month average of just 24 was the expected product of being subbed in each game, but he was unleashed in Round 5 and look what he produced – 86 points. At $217k, is it worth thinking of him as an expensive rookie and getting on board?

4. Underperforming MID/Pittard OUT Laird/Premium DEF IN

This is my favourite trade proposition because it embraces the magic of DPP and allows you to make your team better while avoiding donuts. I’m seriously considering trading out my underperforming Dangerfield for a Premium Defender (Birchall, Hartlett, Waters, etc.), via the Dual Position of Gibbs. If Pittard is out, he makes way for Laird ahead of Goodes, meaning I’m able to keep both Gibbs and Goodes, who I regard as long-term team members at this stage, on the books while dodging zeros. Later on, I’ll trade out Stevenson/Heath for a midfielder of some sort, DPP switching Gibbs back into defence where he belongs.

 

  • The Future

I mentioned earlier the need to sit back and take a look at the big picture, so let’s refresh ourselves on a few things to keep in mind for our squad from a long-term perspective:

TBB SawByes Approaching

It’s very easy to forget about the Byes this year with the new ‘Best 18’ rule, but it’s important to remember that the new system is simply a bandaid and not a cure. It will still require forethought, skill, luck and often sacrifice to manoeuvre through these without copping a donut, and now’s the time to start thinking ahead before you’re forced into a course of action you’d rather not take, sort of like the Saw movies.

A quick glance tells me that my side is structured 11-8-11, which from last year we would know it a bit too front-ended. Hence, I’ll be looking to offload a few Round 11 rookies in the future – it’s nice to see that Port and WBD will take that week off, putting Goodes and the Portlets (not a band, as far as I know) towards the front of the fantasy abattoir line.

Busy Bees at the MRP

Don’t forget that the Match Review Panel has already unleashed its fury, condemning fantasy relevant stars Brett Goodes (2 weeks) and Nat Fyfe (1 week) to the sidelines, while Matty Boyd received a reprimand.

ACLs

What’s going on with the AFL and crucial knee ligaments these days?! We had another wave of ACL injuries this week, with Bradley, Toovey and Taylor Walker all rupturing their knees just this weekend. Add in existing ACLs to players like Suckling, Menzel, Morabito and even that poor goal umpire (I honestly felt so bad for laughing at the time, that I donated to charity), and it’s shaping up to become an epidemic that rivals AIDS in the 80’s. Probably. For both our fantasy and AFL teams, let’s all cross our fingers and toes that no-one else is consigned to what is normally a full season out of the sport we all love; but mostly Dream Team.

TBB PriddisPriddis and Daisy Watch

Priddis’ hair has proven to provide minimal upside in the safety department, knocked out in the very early stages of a game for the second successive season. At this rate, he’ll dip to around $360k in just a fortnight! I’m a big fan of acquiring the ‘big dogs’ of DT as soon as possible, but every now and then a bargain like this comes along that I just can’t refuse – I didn’t last year when I brought him in, and I never regretted it! The frizzy-haired workhorse has averaged 93 or more for the past 4 seasons, if you need any extra convincing to get on board.

Meanwhile, Dale Thomas is still working into his best form (65 in Round 5), sustaining his price drop. Round 8 for under $380k is looking tasty, keep up the fantasy-considerate form Daisy!

 

  • Footnotes

It’s time I gave a massive shout out to my boys in the DT TALK WA league, who’s currently the Number 1 league in the universe! That’s a huge effort to everyone involved, and a tough gig for the other competitors in the DT Talk State League Challenge to try and chase us down.

TBB Top League

That’s all from me this week folks, and I might I just add, how awesome is 44 Trades turning out to be?! We’re constantly considering trades every week, we’re using guilt-free trades to avoid donuts, we’re not getting stuck with the fantasy skidmarks we were fooled into picking in our starting squads – it’s a wide-smile thumbs up from me so far!

What trades are you looking at doing this week? Which Fallen Premiums are on your radar in the future? As usually, let me know in the comments! Remember to keep them relevant though – head to the weekly ‘My Team’ post here for help on your individual side.

281 Comments

  • rioli to zaharakis (have back up for rioli already)

    or

    hoff to Stevie J

    Both will go up pretty high after this round so not sure who to get?

    • who’s the back up for rioli

    • Definitely Hoff to Stevie J.

      Rioli’s price isn’t going anywhere, Hoff is on the way back down & probably won’t be in your top 6 at years end. Better to jump off now if you can. You have plenty of time to offload Rioli. No rush.

    • mmm, douglas at like 450k’s be is like 60, averaging 100 this year.. will go up in price after this week, then see how his be will be the week after and then make another decision after that?

  • Gibbs > Dixon and Fyfe > Stanton/Selwood/Watson/Swallow
    or
    Gibbs > Burgoyne and Fyfe > J.Selwood??

    • fyfes out for 2 weeks, if your meaning to trade him in

      • trading him out

        • oh i just realised what you were saying,

          Fyfe out, get in watson

          • Fyfe to Watson seems to be a good long and short term gain.

            Trying to work out whether I can justify bringing in Scotland this week

            Chose evens over mayes but still tempted to bring in for at prob atleast 3 weeks of good cash to be made

    • I’d go Watson or Swallow out of the midfield guys.

      I wouldn’t get Dixson or Burgoyne…

  • bartel to stevieJ?

  • Priddis in 3 weeks at 360K, lock and load!!!!!!!!. straight swap for 1 of your mid rookies, eg Jaeger, or make some coin on Ollie (although that trade would hurt me a bit).

    • looking forward to it as he did me a lot of good in 2012. this year i can get him in and still upgrade him later in the season. two trades per round is really gonna be enjoyable in the late rounds – i hope more enjoyable than stressful anyway

  • If pittard is named should i trade out goodes to laird and then in two weeks bring goodes back in off stevenson?

    • hard to recommend trades in the future when every week there are better trades to make than the one you thought two weeks ago you’d be doing this round…

      you’ll probably have a better option than bringing in Goodes again so if you make the jump make it knowing Goodes will likely not play for you again

      • yes but goodes still has a negative BE and pittard does not. but if pittard is named he will make me money for two weeks and then i may upgrade him as i have 280k spare. Allthough keeping goodes may mean that trade going through later maybe in 4 weeks

    • Treat as any midpricer. If negative BE for a midpricer is your thing, you should get Byrnes in this week just sayin.

  • hoff>gawn & gibbs>laird, $850k left. if i had played this team with the best scoring players on the field last week, it would have scored 2172. viable option?

  • great article tbetta but i really need some help

    Def- Gibbs, Goodes, heppel, golby, pittard, waters (stevenson, heath)
    Mid- swan, ablett, swallow, thompson, moloney, wines, whitfield, omeara (vines, evans)
    Ruc- leuy, daw (rowe, currie)
    Fwd- hoff, kennedy, martin, lewis, breust, mayes (neade, macaffer)
    500k in bank

    i really need to fix up my second ruck. so thinking of going hoff to cox and then swap cox for rowe and bench daw. then maybe moloney for stevie J. and then move stevie J into fwds using neade as DPP. that is if my 3 port rookies play otherwise instead of the moloney trade i will trade either gibbs or goodes for someone.

    thoughts please???????????

  • Hoff or Dangerfield out?

    • walker is out, they are expecting dangerfield to step up.. hopefully he plays like half forward flank, gets a lot of disposals with a few goals to add onto it

  • Why is there a bye in my eliminator game?y

    • Top 40k automatically move to the next round and get a week off due to not enough numbers or something like that.

      • thats not factually right, because im ranked 23647 and im versing someone ranked like 133k

  • still stuck.. pittard, stevenson or heath for laird? -.-

  • Def-Birchall,Heppell,Gibbs,Goodes,Terlich,Pittard,(Stevenson,Heath)
    Mid-Ablett,Pendlebury,Murphy,Cotchin,Fyfe,Wines,O’Meara,Dangerfield,(Viney,Mitchell)
    Ruc-Leuenberger,Rowe,(Blicavs,Currie)
    Fwd-Westhoff,Rockliff,Kennedy,Walters,Darling,Hawkins,(Byrnes,Macaffer)

    Thoughts??

    Gibbs/Goods B (out) > Burgoyne/Laird (in)
    & Fyfe (out) > S.Mitchel/Sidebottom (in)

    • My thoughts are stick this post in the other damn thread that was created for this team posting crap.

  • Fyf is out for 2 weeks? Oh this shit just gets better and better.e

  • Gunna hide under the covers and hope for the best this week.

  • Now Fyfe is out for 2, what are coaches thoughts on possible replacements
    Zaharakis $431,100 (be 45) or McLean $475,100 (be 68) ? Or any others..?
    I have $486,400 to spend…

    • I love the idea of McLean as a POD with Cartlon’s run coming up. Zaharakis might do well against GWS but then they have Geelong who he has struggled against in the past. Just YOLO it and choose McLean, you know you want to ;) haha

      • Ha ha, hey cheers WCW,, McLeans next few opponents are just right for him to ton it up a few times., and yeah he was my first thought… Thanks again!

    • Barlow as a like for like. Similar scoring midfielder with the exact same schedule as Fyfe.

  • If you could get one premium mid in this week, who would you get?
    Ablett? Selwood? Watson? Someone else?

    • Watson, because that’s who I brought in :D

      • He does have GWS next week… so a good buy. I’m stuck between him, Ablett and Jelwood right now. They have all probably reached their minimums….

  • One trade option I’m playing with at the moment is the following scenario:

    Westhoff out (DPP Cox), Leuenberger In, adds $204,800 to my $560,800 purse for a total of $765,600.
    Then I sub Rowe and Cox returning Cox to the ruck and Rowe to the bench (FWD). I’m satisfied with playing both Macaffer and Dwyer on the field this week given their opponent and really, I’m trying not to panic about league wins at this moment so if I lose again this round so be it.

    This leaves me with the remaining trade to do something in defence. I’m also planning on keeping Gibbs and Goodes so if a Port rookie is sidelined this week I’ll just cull them for either Scotland (High) or Yarran (Low). Leaning towards Scotland as he could just get comfortable with keeper status.

    All a shame really – this injury and suspension shambles (Fyfe benched as well) because I had my heart set on bringing in Barlow this round. As it stands now it’ll have to wait till after the Sydney mach in 3 weeks’ time.

    • Can’t you just DPP link Rowe into your FWDS straight away? I don’t see the reason for the double DPP swap…not that it really matters, it’s just I feel as if I’m missing something here.

      As far as defenders go, get in Scotland, he should be a keeper, so it negates the need to make an extra trade later to get in a keeper, which may sound unimportant, but if you are struggling this week with having heaps of trades you would like to make, how can you guaruntee it won’t be the same for any other given round from here on in. Also,it looks as if he is set to absolutely decimate the minnows that Carlton come up against in the next few weeks if his current form trend is anything to go by.

      I hope this helps :)

  • Thanks for the article TBetta, great work definitely one of the best on here thanks for your time and effort.

  • Just found the following comments on the player discussion page for Taylor Duryea (Hawthorn midfielder, $108500, BE -63 for those interested) on the fanfooty website…needless to say I laughed so hard that I was in tears after reading some of the following comments. Enjoy!

    PLAYER DISCUSSION
    • When you’re sick of all this shower, and your ar$ehole starts to power, DURYEA! – flukeyluke – 3 days ago
    • I’m sick of this Duryea shower !! – CamT – 3 days ago
    • When you’re squirming and you squish, then you fill a “Petrie” dish, DURYEA! – jake01 – 4 days ago
    • When you tackle at the hips, and he spays on your lips, Duryea! – lovesbud – 5 days ago
    • When you’re kicking a drop punt, but you’ve got sh*t in your c*nt, Duryea! – Fury – 5 days ago
    • *as$hole not alpshole – masterhc2 – 6 days ago
    • When the crowd is yelling “Ball!” but your alpshole starts to pour, Duryea! – masterhc2 – 6 days ago
    • When you’re going for the pill, but you sense something spill, Duryea! – masterhc2 – 6 days ago
    • When your light is about to fade, what the hell has he just sprayed? DURYEA! – fivestarmd – 7 days ago
    • When you’re sliding into first and you feel something burst, Duryea!!! – MudDawg – 7 days ago
    • When your Club Doctor injects Peptides into your backside, one side effect is . DURYEA!! – DazGranzza – 8 days ago
    • When your PM is a mole and she has a dirty hole GONRYEA – painkilla – 8 days ago
    • For fear of getting kissed, you may release that brown mist, DURYEA! – fivestarmd – 8 days ago
    • When I feel something warm on my nuts, when your sister lets me take her up the butt, duryea :) – armyofspud – 9 days ago
    • When you’re playing for the hawks, but you’ve eaten grotty pork, Duryea! – Escapist – 9 days ago
    • When you’re leaking from your hole and you can’t stray from the bowl, Duryea! – snapper – 9 days ago
    • When you’re running for the door and you could poo right through a straw, DURYEA! – fivestarmd – 9 days ago
    • When you eat something fishy and your jocks go really squishy, Duryea! – shrtlg – 10 days ago
    • When Franklins giving you assists, but your Duryea still persists, DURYEA! – S_Coach99 – 12 days ago
    • When food goes in your gut then it sprays right out your butt, Duryea! – Fury – 12 days ago

  • Oh and by the way, awesome article Tbetta, possibly the best article I’ve seen so far this year on DT Talk.

  • My Team:

    DEF: Gibbs, Heppell, Goddard, B.Goodes, L.Stevenson, J.Pittard SUBS: C.Heath, N. Vlastuin

    MIDS: D.Swan, G.Ablett, T.Cotchin, O.Wines, N.Fyfe, P.Dangerfield, J.O’Meara, M.Evans SUBS: N.Kommer, B.Crouch

    RUCKS: D.Cox, M.Leuenberger SUBS: M.Blicavs, D.Currie

    FWDS: J.Westhoff, J.Kennedy, T.Rockliff, J.Bartel, L.Franklin, J.Neade, S.Mayes SUBS: S.Rowe, B.Macaffer

    $225,900 in salary

    scored 2,037 on the weekend. Quite a disappointing weekend ranking wise went from 8,337 last week to this week 11,082. league wise i won all 3 league games which was pleasing.

    was planning to trade out hoff for stevie j but that doesnt look like its happening this week thanks to injuries/suspensions that we all get hit by.

    thoughts on trades i can do? theres soo many but main focus is the backline this week like most. i was planning to trade out Danger sometime and bring in watson or pendles. also i want to bring in hartlett or birchell not sure who though i could probably do that trade this week by bringing in laird aswell. dont really want to get rid of gibbs and Goodes but might end up that i do take out goodes and bring in like a hartlett or a birchell.

    thoughts on my team general? trade thoughts?

    sorry its abit long :/ haha

    cheers

    • That’s what she said

      • I had to read Chris’ comment for a while, but I see what you did there ;)

    • In answer to your question/s Chris, it may look bleak right now as far as injuries/suspensions go, but as long as you aren’t copping donuts, I wouldn’t consider any trade a ‘forced’ trade.

      With that in mind, I would suggest that you do make the Hoff -> Stevie J trade as your first trade. If you make that trade this week you’ll probably save yourself $30k-$50k and earn an extra 20-60 points based on individual performances in this week alone. But if it looks as if you’re going to get 2 donuts when team sheets come out, then this trade will have to wait (unless you’re willing to cop a donut…there are worse things in DT, you could lose as little as 20 (injured/sub affected score) compared to if you tried to escape the donut, then substitute the extra 20-60 that you’re going to get from SJ and the cash rise and it still seems a good trade to make). Food for thought.

      As for your second trade, that will really depend on the team sheets that come out on Thursday, but I get the feeling that the most likely trades that will apply then will probably be Goodes -> Hartlett/Scotland just because the chances are that Gibbs will be back before Goodes (he may not even miss a game, but it’s more likely that he will miss this week because Carlton are playing Melbourne).

      Also, if you were to make the first trade and attempt to get Birchall from the second, I don’t think you’d have the cash for it (by my quick calculations), not to mention Birchall’s inevitable price crash over the next 2 weeks due to that 80 and the 151 moving out of his rolling average. For these reasons I think Hartlett and Scotland are your 2 best options at the moment, and to be honest, it’s very hard to split them right now, but if I had to choose one right now it would be Scotland. I just have a gut feeling he can slut it up against the easy beats that Carlton have in the next 5 weeks (another reason to hold Gibbs).

      Of course, if there is donut pending in the midfield with Fyfe suspended and Crouch and Kommer far from certain from playing this week, then your second trade can be used in the midfield (unless you want to DPP, which would be a great alternative). Because you already own Mayes and Evans, the market for a cash grab is limited at best, so you may have to look for an upgrade here too. Your choice is simple if you look for a midfield replacement, trade Fyfe for a super premo (Watson/Stanton/Pendles) or trade Crouch/Kommer for the player that’s priced up to roughly $400k that has the best upside/growth/scoring combination (this is my least favourite option).

      This one I like to call ‘Feasting on the Prime Beef Shank(Quadricep)” and if you hadn’t already realised, it involves my main man Ollie Wines. The only stopping this from being your second trade is underperformers/possibility of donuts. If it wasn’t for that, this would be a terrific trade to make right now. To be honest I don’t expect you to make this trade, especially if you make the Hoff trade, which you should at least consider, especially if you aren’t going to cop donuts. I put it on here mainly because it is a good trade for others to have a look at, and the name of the trade needed to be spread. If you were to trade Ollie out now at his current price of $360k and BE of roughly 48, you could acquire any player you want except for Beams and Boyd seeing as you already own Swan and Ablett. Personally I’d go for Watson or Stanton, or, for a slight POD you could try Murphy because of Carlton’s friendly fixtures over the next five weeks. But my first choice there would be Watson.

      Hopefully if you attempted to read all of this you managed to get to this part…I hope my advice helps :) and I hope I didn’t put anyone to sleep, unless that’s what they were trying to achieve by reading it ;)

  • i traded:
    blicavs – gawn (needed too for money)

    should my next trade be:
    gibbs – hibberd (or someone else)
    bartel – johnston or n.volt
    ?

    if pittard plays i have cover for gibbs.