Trigger Happy: Round 4 (The Port Adelaide edition)

Just when you thought 2013 was going to be better than 2012 – think again.

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The Carnage begins……..

Last week, we could afford rather luxurious trades like ditching a rookie because another one was projected to make $2000 more, or that under-performing gun who hadn’t yet delivered back to back 100′s. Oh how long a week in football is. Round 3 brought us injuries to popular players like Kreuzer, Patton, Varcoe and er, Dixon, while our rookies rewarded us by getting suspended (Kommer) or relegated back to the  rookie list (Mitchell). It’s not the most ridiculous thing to think someone out there could of had all 6 players. What’s that? Whispers of Pendlebury and Cox not training? How many trades to we have again? Lets try and dissect this mess and see if we can come out the other side in tact.

 

Defenders:

All is quiet down back. Our guns are performing in general, our rookie backs are playing AND not getting injured. A score over 50 this week would be nice, but hey we have more ( and bigger) fish to fry. If you are like me, you would have that many bigger fish to fry, you could open up your own fish n chip shop. If you have the luxury of looking to get in a value back, you may want to consider -

Grant Birchall $480,700 b/e 57:  Looks like Bert can live without Ernie.  Birchall is currently the highest point scoring and averaging back. In the pre-season, coaches were worried that Birch would get even more attention with Suckling out and articles like this  floating around didn’t help.  So far we haven’t seen anything but his silky left foot disposal and a few goals on his way to a 109.6 average  Historically a consistent scorer, make sure you get him in sooner rather than later as he is a guaranteed top 6 defender.

Danyle Pearce $396,800 b/e 64* Looks like a change is as good as a holiday. Pearce has promised so much but has never quite delivered on his talent, but now could be his time. Looks to have some freedom on a back flank on Paterson’s playground, Pearce has already eclipsed his highest season average (in 2007)  by 10 points per game. Yes it’s early days, but I don’t think it would be your worse trade this year.* Don’t forget –  still coached by Ross Lyon

Hamish Hartlett $420,600, b/e 106 Is a likely top 10 back if his body holds up. A bit yo-yo like so far with 2 100s with a 30 in between but should be ok in the long run. In 4 years has only played a maximum of 16 games in a season so strap yourself in for a ride.

Want to know about good back rookies on the bubble? check out Jeppa’s juniors

 

Midfielders

While some of the midfield guns like Dangerfield and Redden haven’t hit the lofty heights expected of their coaches just yet, it is our cash cows giving us the unwanted headaches. Nick Kommer ($140,900, b/e -7) got a couple of weeks for trying to take Kepler ‘Lurch’ Bradley’s head off  (making him prettier?) and Kane Mitchell (123,900, b/e 16) has been the sub 3 weeks running and gets relegated to the rookie list for his efforts. Maybe Hinkley asked him to get a haircut and he refused, so Hinkley ‘cut’ him in a different way? Aki and Jeppa advise us that Brad Crouch ($108,500 b/e 61) is the logical replacement for one of these two but if you have a bit of cash lying around, there are options.

Travis Boak $463,500 b/e 46.   This could be the year that Boak actually delivers on his potential. Now in his 7th year of AFL, Boak has teased us previously with an average of 95 in 2010 but never took that next step. Has started 2013 with 3 tons and is currently the 9th highest scorer in AFL. In a whole 2.1% of teams he will be a point of difference. I’m hoping the AFL (and DT) gods smile on him for showing some loyalty to his club and not chasing the dollars.

Jack Redden $508,600, b/e 119.  This could be a week early, but my crystal ball says he is going to smash it this week. Last year Jack took a few games to get going, but after round 5, he smacked out  11 tons and went under 90 twice ( one of them 89). Plays North this week where he has 126, 119 and 119 in his last 3 against them. It’s almost criminal that he is only in 2% of teams. Sneaky captain choice?

Kane Cornes $508,800 b/e 57. Is Cornes returning to his heydays of 2006/7?  For the past 5 years he has been super consistent and averaged between 90 and 100 (bar 2011, where he will blame the coach) but has started this season averaging 121 – and he is a tagger! Is in a total of 1659 teams (0.77%!) and has scored more points than Pendlebury, Swan, Cotchin and Ablett. Might keep up this uber premium score but still has the responsibility of the opposition’s best  midfielder. If you had someone like Dangerfield this could be a genuine sideways trade.

Chad Wingard is also a genuine pick that could advance your team and that opinion can be found here from Aki.

 

 Rucks

 Matty Kreuzer continued his bad luck of injuries with a broken thumb and will be out for 4-6 weeks, which means  37,000 coaches  are looking for a trade. The Vanilla trade is getting Leuenberger in before he starts to rise in price, but there are other options.

Toddy Goldstein $432,700, b/e 89. Goldstein is loving the solo ruck life at North. One of only 2 rucks to be averaging over 100 (and 90 for that matter) he is a set and forget for the rest of the season. Will continue to do well even if a certain Majak Daw  plays in the team for a while.

Ben McEvoy $454,700 b/e 65.  This bloke has one of the biggest mortgages of a number 1 ruck role in the AFL and this is why he  is undervalued. Whose gonna steal the ruck time off him? Kosi? Ha! Started quietly with 57, but has had 107 and 97 in his last 2 which I think will be his closer to his output this season. Will be top 3 in the rucks by the end of the season, get him now while he is cheap.

 

Forwards

Now we get to the root of most of our problems for the week. The forward line.  Varcoe, Patton, Zorko and Pavlich currently occupy 4 out of the top 5 spots of the most traded out players this week.

The Hoff $463,600 b/e -20. Looks like we have found the next big thing since sliced bread. I don’t care, I’m not buying it. It was round 2  in 2010 and I was a little more naive about DT. The Hoff smacked out 121 points against the eagles playing a free role and I thought ‘wow look at this role change he’s gonna be a gun!’ After swiftly trading him, Westhoff delivered spud scores 61,69 73 and 48. To this day I have held a grudge and my pride will not let me get him in. It was even more disappointing that I had him at $1.10 favourite for the ‘Ty Vickery award’ last week and he gets 140. The only thing I hate more than Westhoff is the owners of him in draft leagues that gloat about their ‘masterstroke’ of a late pick!

Angus Monfries $382,600 b/e 40  It’s like a Danoz Direct ad ‘but wait there’s still more!’ (Port Adelaide players). Is another player who has flourished with a change of scenery and is currently 14 points higher than his highest ever average DT output in 8 years. Definitely undervalued at the 11th ranked forward for average.

Steven Motlop $332,000 b/e 28 Haven’t seen this bloke mentioned anywhere just yet. Has been totally under the radar but screams breakout. Motlop has now played 29 games, entrenched himself in the best 21 at Geelong, and is currently 25 points up on last years average. An ideal replacement for Varcoe (whose admission actually may help him more)  and an easy step up to a premium in a few weeks if he doesn’t become a F6/7

 

Stubby’s Holders and Folders

As the trades have been dominated this week by injuries, it’s pretty easy to justify whether to hold or fold a player. Out of the top 10 players being traded out, only Zorko and Karnezis is being traded for lack of performance.

Karnezis - Has snuck back in to the top 10 of the most traded out ( he was still in teams?) despite getting picked. Is only in a Sunday squad and named 4th on the bench. Big chance for the vest and wont make his b/e – FOLD 

Nick Kommer - Now sitting on the sidelines for 2 weeks and puts a stop to his cash making ability. Some see this as a problem yet I like to see this as an opportunity. Trade him out this week to Crouch, wait for someone else to make some cash for 2 weeks (Viney seems a good candidate) and then bring him back in to continue to make more cash! FOLD

Beau Waters - He’s picked as a keeper and listed as 1-2 weeks away with his calf injury. I would back Beau to get back sooner rather than later and with plenty of bench cover down back I would wait this one out - HOLD

 

The Ty Vickery Award

 

The contenders:

Dyson Heppell: At 3/4 time against Freo, that 147 against Melbourne felt like it was a year ago. Covered well by Mzungu all night, HeppD put the cape on in the last quarter for a respectable 81 and a play a big part in the Dons win.

Shaun Higgins:  Came out with a bang and scored 115 points in round 1. Could of been a genuine option with all these trades, but did us a favour and got injured early so we didn’t get sucked in. Reminded lots of people why he was on so many ‘never again lists’

 

and the winner is…

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Tom Liberatore!

Libba came out with a point to prove and keep the third year breakout theory in tact, averaging 120 in his first 2 and looked everybit the heir apparent to Matty Boyd. Then he gave any new coaches a 46. Has only played 36 games and probably still has a few shockers left in him, at least he made you $21k! expect him to bounce back this week where he had a 95 on Adelaide last year.

 

Running Review

Another solid week for The Running Man, scoring an unspectacular 2046 but kept above par and enough to sneak into the top 1000. Bringing in Wines was the vanilla trade but turned out pretty good. This week i have the problems of Kommer and Mitchell so am looking at bringing in my 6th ruck (Sinclair – I like his JS) for Karnezis and unsure if I will turn Mitchell into Mullet or Motlop.

I sincerely apologise for all the Port Adelaide players featured in the article, but they are all very fantasy relevant. They have started with a bang and thus the scores have been above par. It will be interesting to see if Port can maintain the momentum or not.

As always give me a follow on Twitter @jimbobholder

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78 Comments

  • “It’s not the most ridiculous thing to think someone out there could of had all 6 players.”
    Try 5 of the 6. I don’t have Dixon but do have Waters & Maccaf. I have elected to trade out Mitchell so I can cash in on Crouch and have brought in Walters for Patton. Next week hopefully Mayes in for Macca and Minson or Leuey for Kreuzer. Then we’ll see. Taking the long term rather than the short term “trade out Kreuzer & Waters to maximise this week’s score” view.

  • i have karnezis and kommer, as well as varcoe. would it then make sense to hold on karnezis seeing as he is the only one playing out of those three?

    • i might just do what you have suggested and get in motlop for varcoe, makes sense really….and that way i can do kommer>crouch. leaves me with $76,300 but still kommer languishing on the bench. ohh well, don’t have three trades now do i?

  • Great article JimmyBob!

    Im struggling to decide who to upgrade Macaffer to out of Westhoff or Monfries, any thoughts?

    • the hoff, he will continue his streak and i dont care what anyone else thinks.

    • the hoff has a lower breakeven which is why i’ve gone with him
      besides… he’s the hoff

  • K.Mitchell > Hodge leaving $4,600 left or K.Mitchell > Wines leaving $155,200 left? cheers

  • Why apologise for the port players?

    • They are the most DT relevent team in the comp.

      • So you shouldn’t be apologising, instead thanking the recruiting staff for the amount of rookie priced players haha

  • I just realised I can afford to do an interesting trade. Zorko -> Monfries & Kommer -> Hodge. I miss out on Crouch, and my fwd line is vunerable with Patton & caff on the bench.

  • Dodged all of the bullets last week so I basically had the luxury of both trades. Wright>Hoff and Danger>Hodge. Leaves me with $163,600. Thoughts?

    • good if you dont have anything else to fix up, like me.

    • They are both luxury sideway trades indeed! I dont think Danger & Wright are cooked by any means. I predict Danger will explode soon. I am actually mighty tempted to put C on him this week. He simply needs to play 4 full quarters.

      • Got rid of Wright because Van Berlo was the tagger and now he is out that job falls to Wright. Looking to get danger back in soon after Hodge makes me a bit of cash.

        • Jealous, I have wright, zorko, patton, caff, danger, kommer. Danger & wright least of my worries.

  • wasnt happy with my 1934 last week, but got most of the good rooks, so decided on the following
    plowman – Birchall
    Zorko – Hoff

    hoping these help with the score and a little bit of cash as well

  • should I trade libba to prem or waters to birch this week?

    • i’m tempted to say waters to birch as he is still underpriced
      lidda, i think, still has a low breakeven

  • Thinking of POD move and putting boodes on bench as port play gc. Have to choose between him, pittard or heath. Am I as stupid as I think I sound?

    • It’s not stupid to think rookies are going to get a better score against easier opposition, but you just have to consider the quality of these players and you should be able to tell that Heath is the bench fodder out of all of them. Heath could score more than Goodes this week, but the chances are he won’t.

  • Need some help with my trades this week. i have an easy opponent next 3 games so not worried about my score. Have locked in Kitchell to Crouch but need to trade Zorko to either Hoff or Rowe, thinking Rowe as hell make more money and when i have a tough game next i can upgrade then, but dont wanna miss out on the Hoff if he continues his current form.

    • The Hoff should rise about the same amount as Rowe this week before the 154 leaves his rolling average. When it does his breakeven will skyrocket from -20 to anywhere between 30 and 80 depending on how well he plays this week. This means that this could be the last good week of cash generation from the Hoff. He’s gonna outscore Rowe and you can always get Rowe in next week for not too much more (40k) than you’d pay for him this week. Hoff imo. YOLO!

      • Hoff can only arise same amount as rowe, provided he scores 100+. It’s not a dead set certainty Jarrad. But yeah he’s playing great. It’s definitely last week for cash generation for hoff. Cant see him as a keeper.

  • Stuff it. Yolo Port Adelaide trade. Zorko -> Hoff Patton -> Monfries. Crazy or what!

  • JOM or Viney on field. I just got a feeling Viney & Jones will kill it against GWS.

    • I have the same problem. I need to pick either whitfield, viney, jom or jones to fill two spots. Jom might score ok against port but viney and jones together is mighty tempting.

    • I reckon Viney, he just has more potential and will kill GWS!

  • Im thinking of trading out Ablett for Cornes/Boak/Hodge? Keep one of them for a few weeks and then trade back. Or maybe Jacobs for Goldstein?

  • GWS are actually fairly good competitors in contested possession and midfield clearances. This may mean that Viney will still struggle because he is an in and under type player. I’d be going JOM.

  • Anyone know when the Sunday benches are updated?

  • Is trading danger to hodge a good move or a bad move thoughts

  • If you have the luxury then go ahead. Just don’t get mad if Danger smashes out a 140.

  • Is wright to Mayes a good or bad call thoughts

    • Good call, premature call, hold off for another week call

  • Is there any point bringing in the Hoff if your fwd line looks like this:
    JJK
    N.Roo
    Rockliff
    Bartel
    Wright
    Rowe?
    If so who would I sideways trade with $72k in the bank?

  • Should I downgrade wright to Mayes or lecras or stokes wat trade is the best

  • Is wright —-> Mayes a good or bad call or tell me wat better options there is for downgrading wright

  • what are peoples thoughts on Jarryd Roughhead, should I keep or will he come good?

  • Already definitely locked in the K.Mitchell to Crouch trade, and still unsure on the second trade. One option is to go Kreuzer to Leunberger, which would leave me with $362K in the bank to potentially pull two upgrades next week. The second one is to go Naismith (Just R4 bench fodder to afford who I wanted Pre-Rd 1) to Rowe, that means I’d keep Kreuzer on the bench until next week and be forced to play Rowe on the ground, potential matchup with Darren Glass at full forward with Warnock coming back into the Blues lineup.

    Opinions would be greatly appreciated.

    Cheers, best of luck to all this week!

    • I would go Kruezer to Leunberger, as Daw is playing this round and you can potentially trade Naismith to him in a couple of weeks and do an upgrade next week with the cash you get from Leuy.

  • Should I trade Dangerfield or Jack? I was only going to keep Jack for the early rounds but Dangerfield is spudding it up at the moment. Or should I trade Dangerfield – Hodge and Jack to Cotchin/Swallow/Watson/Stanton.

    Thoughts would be appreciated as I am stuck on what to do.

    • Danger isn’t exactly spuddimg it….just hold him. Hold Jack as well…no need to trade then yet.

    • I’m not a big fan of offlading premiums, although if there is a good cash cow to be had (ie Hodge), then I’d go for it. Personally I think the Dangerfield to Hodge trade is a good one this week, Danger doesn’t score well against the dogs, and will get tagged by Lower… Pull that trade and then wait till Patty D starts shredding it, by the time he’s bottomes out then bring him back in.

  • Thanks for the read, the thought of Cox not playing this round really just adds to my shocker of a start to the season…

    Here’s a painful list of players who I started off with this year for your amusement:
    - Kreuzer
    - Varcoe
    - Karnezis
    - Zorko
    - Pavlich
    - Kommer
    - Mitchell
    - Macaffer
    - Dangerfield
    - Swan (not firing as much as I had hoped so deserves a mention)

    And to top if off, I didn’t have Wines!

  • Lucky enough to not have Kreuzer, Varcoe, Patton, Pavlich or Kommer, (I know my time will come) and already traded out Mitchell,and Dangerfield, holding on to McCaffer.

    Am going Ablett to Crouch and Zorko to Westhoff. $501,000 in the bank. Ablett back next week or the week after. Resisted Smith to Luenberger, figured more cash to be made from Crouch.

  • Nice stuff, i reckon Golstein’s BE is a bit high though at 89. FF has it at 57 and Dreamstats at 51……these seem more accurate for those looking at getting him in.

  • 3 options this week for my trades

    1. Waters to Birchall/pearce

    2. Kommer to Crouch

    3. Libber to premo

    Which is best option and why in your opinion?

  • Wright to Mayes good call or bad call

    • It’s fine, Mayes is going to be a gun. I would recommend someone like Jonathon Brown though. Of Matthew Stokes.

    • In the future…instead of just continually annoying everyone, how about trying to be constructive and explain your thoughts before asking for everyone else’s opinion. It’s your team, you make a choice.

  • Kreuzer out for goldstein or mcevoy?