Dream Team Stock Market – 3.0

dt_stockmarket

 

With an abundance of material on the inter-webs these days and a plethora of opinions on every topic ever discussed in the history of man going around on every social media site ever made, there is one thing that will always stand strong. Cash rules the world.

Welcome to 2013′s first edition of the Dream Team Stock Market.

Whilst the value of players is a very elaborate formula, managing your team does not need to be as complex.

This year we are granted 44 trades. Which is 2 per week – use them or lose them. We can do whatever we like with them. Already I have seen some of the worst sideways trades and some of the most clever sideways trades already struck, in the first week alone. This is something we would never dream about in years gone by. The game is evolving.

With this evolution, comes a small shift in how we look at making money, especially when putting a team together in order to achieve our ultimate team, as early as possible. However your structure is, the same principal applies. You want maximum performance out of every person on your list, every single week after round 2 . Regardless if he on your field.

For me there are 5 types of players in Dream Team. 

Guns – The best of the best and one’s that are just purely untradeable cause they will turn around and rip you a new one the very next week. Stick with them. Only trade if they are injured, suspended or you are giving them a break over the bye.

Premiums - They use to be untouchable as well, and whether you value them as a gun or not, is up to you. Generally I say back them in, unless they have changed roles or lost a leg. Give them a chance. Early on you will tell if you made the right call and before you lose money on them, a sideways trade is an option then.

Bastards - This group are generally valued in the awkward $300 – $400k range. They might score you a nice 120 one week, but the next 6 they score 150 combined. You do not want your team to have such topsy turvey players or you are running a DT gauntlet  These are players that just aren’t DT relevant.

Mid-Pricers - Most frustrating group of the lot. But every now and then a shining light comes through. These can be valued between $200k – $400k, simply based on the year prior. If someone is coming back from injury, generally they will be priced in this bracket and there stock value could increase (with scoring output) to a level at which they should be. Or the player is ready to go from a 4-5 gamer, to certain first team selection and lift himself to premium status. If these players fail, sometimes a downgrade is the only option.

Rookies - The guys that will make you the team to beat. They are cheap, they have huge scope for improvement and could very well at times, stay in your team, all year. We need a lot of luck when it comes to these guys and new rookies being brought into AFL sides every 6-8 weeks is ideal. Trade them out when they peak, trade them in when they are on the bubble. Simple.

Anyways, let’s get to it…

 

Cash Me Up Junior:

The backbone to every Fantasy side in the country. If you want to have a side worthy of winning the cash, that amazing eliminator game, a friends league or even just an epic R6 battle against your girlfriends team you created as a bit of joke but it’s currently sitting 5000 positions higher than you on the ladder and you feel much less of a man because you’ve told your girlfriend about this and now she struts around the house acting like she is the DT mastermind and she doesn’t even know what a kick is worth let alone who she has as captain!!! – then these are some of the players that must be in your side at this stage of the year.

1.) Brett Goodes (DEF/MID) $121,300 B/E: -102 AVG: 86.5 Last 2: 91, 82

Whilst not a junior by age, he is the first on my list. Simply put, he should be in every single Dream Team defense. He didn’t join the bulldogs to #@*^ spiders. The 29 year old rookie and brother of some bloke named Adam, Brett has been fantastic down back for the Bulldogs. Poised, polished and reassuring, he is exactly what we all need as a rookie in our own back-lines. Is a NAB Rising Star nomination a possibility?

Projected Cash Increase: +$75-$85k 

Next 3 Opponents: Richmond (Etihad Stadium), Adelaide (AAMI Stadium), Geelong (Etihad Stadium).

2.) Jaeger O’Meara (MID) $108,500 B/E: -114 AVG: 88 Last 2: 73, 104

After a slow start in Round 1, O’Meara has been fantastic.  Has shown his ability to get involved in the contests, especially with his tackling. Looks set to continue building confidence and adapt to the speed of the AFL. This kid is going to be unreal. Should see a very nice cash grab of $80,000 if he maintains his average of 88 this week against Brisbane at Metricon.

Projected Cash Increase: +$80-$90k 

Next 3 Opponents: Brisbane (Metricon Stadium), Port Adelaide (Metricon Stadium), GWS Giants (Manuka Oval).

3.) Jack Viney (MID) $102,700 B/E: -85 AVG: 72.5 Last 2: 86, 59

Jack wouldn’t have enjoyed his first 2 appearances in the AFL but can hold his head high, especially after his debut vs the Power. Was best on in Round 1 and if it wasn’t for his good mate Wines (and the result) he could have possibly snuck in a nomination for the NAB Rising Star. The cheaper of my 3 preferred mid rookies and with his job security surely locked in for a side struggling for leadership, get Jack in your side too.

Projected Cash Increase: +$60-$70k 

Next 3 Opponents: West Coast (MCG), GWS Giants (MCG), Brisbane (GABBA).

4.) Oliver Wines (MID) $156,700 B/E: -88 AVG: 90 Last 2: 99, 81

Wines got off to a flyer in Round 1, picking up 24 touches, 1 goal, 3 tackles and the NAB Rising Star for an excellent display against the Demons. Had 19 touches against the Giants on the weekend to go with 5 tackles, just goes to show that some of these more mature bodied rookies coming through are worth there weight in gold if they can pressure the ball defensively. Wines is $50k more or so than some rookies I mention, so possibly less to be made from him, but still a must in your side.

Projected Cash Increase: +$70-$80k

Next 3 Opponents: Adelaide (AAMI Stadium), Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium), West Coast (AAMI Stadium).

5.) Sam Dwyer (FWD/MID) $89,300 B/E: -72 AVG: 62 Last 2: 34, 90

A sub affected 34 (not bad for just over 1 quarter of footy) in Round 1 was put to rest after a near best on ground performance (90) against Carlton on the weekend. Was great in close quarters and even provided some spark from stoppages that the Pies were desperate to find late in the game. Also with a bargain price of under $90k and the chance to really boost his stock in the next few weeks, i am sure many people, if not already, have him already on field over Macaffer. I know I have. Bucks – please do not give this give a vest again.

Projected Cash Increase: +$50-$60k

Next 3 Opponents: Hawthorn (MCG), Richmond (MCG), Essendon (MCG).

6.) Lewis Stevenson (DEF) $108,500 B/E: -82 AVG: 72.5 Last 2: 74, 71

The 2nd of my Port brigade. Get’s the nod over Pittard and Heath for my preferred Port rookie defender. Seems to be a consistent performer and reliable one at the during the whole game. If form continues, more money to be made out of Stevenson than the higher priced Pittard and the lower scoring (not by much) Heath.

Projected Cash Increase: +$60-$70k

Next 3 Opponents: Adelaide (AAMI Stadium), Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium), West Coast (AAMI Stadium).

7.) Campbell Heath (DEF) $108,500 B/E: -69 AVG: 66 Last 2: 58, 74

The bloke with two first names – as above, most people will have 2 or 3 of the Port rookie defenders. Personally, I’ve got all 3. There is money to be made and whilst they are averaging up near the 70′s, that’s good enough for me.

Projected Cash Increase: +$50-$60k

Next 3 Opponents: Adelaide (AAMI Stadium), Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium), West Coast (AAMI Stadium).

8.) Jasper Pittard (DEF) $132,600 B/E: -63 AVG: 70 Last 2: 62, 78

Also as above, Pittard/Stevenson is the dilemma with who I pick on field. Pittard did have 27 touches on the weekend but 14 prior to that. Where as Stevenson has had 19 and 22. Really, flip a coin if you have to decide from the two. Or just go all out and give Heath a gig.

Projected Cash Increase: +$35-$45k

Next 3 Opponents: Adelaide (AAMI Stadium), Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium), West Coast (AAMI Stadium).

9.) Jake Neade (FWD/MID) $108,500 B/E: -65 AVG: 64 Last 2: 5375

Sneaks into my top 10 after a solid 75 on the weekend with a couple of goals to boot. Really though, we don’t have much variety or choice in the forward line department for rookies this season, so any money made is good money.

Projected Cash Increase: +$50-$60k

Next 3 Opponents: Adelaide (AAMI Stadium), Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium), West Coast (AAMI Stadium).

10.) Lachie Whitfield (MID) $183,700 B/E: -42 AVG: 74 Last 2: 47, 102

Only sneaks into my top 10 after busting out a ton on the weekend. He did look a lot more comfortable out on a wing than he did out anywhere in round 1. In an ideal world, he will bust out a similar score as last weekend and his R1 47 will be a long distant memory and will be removed from his rolling average come R4. Fingers crossed, you pricey bastard!

Projected Cash Increase: +$40-$50k

Next 3 Opponents: St Kilda (Manuka Oval), Melbourne (MCG), Gold Coast (Manuka Oval).

 

Stocks Rising (lead balloons):

Matt Jones $102,700 BE: -57 AVG: 58.5 Proj Cash: +$40-$50k

Nick Kommer $102,700 BE: -25 AVG: 42.5 Proj Cash: +$25-$35k

Mark Blicavs $108,500 BE: -26 AVG: 44.5 Proj Cash: +$25-$25k

Jackson Merrett $127,800 BE: -61 AVG: 68 Proj Cash: +$40-$50k

Brent Macaffer: $132,600 BE: -39 AVG: 58 Proj Cash: +$35-$45k

Jed Anderson: $108,500 BE: -19 AVG: 41 Proj Cash: +$20-$30k

 

Hot Property

They might not be the one’s you expect and generally these players aren’t at premium prices. This group will not only earn you some coin in the near future, but will give you a considerable scoring output to go with (which believe or not, goes hand in hand). Are they worth keeping? You be the judge.

1.) Justin Westoff (FWD) $394,800 BE: -23 AVG: 127 Last 2: 100, 154

Westoff has pumped out 2 great scores in back to back games, but it was against Melbourne and then the GWS Giants. High five! Beware, he is yet to average over 80 for an entire season. He is on a hot streak and expected to cash up about $50k this week. He plays the Crows this week where he averages 72.5 in 10 contests. Not the worst output I must admit.

Projected Cash Increase: +$45-$55k

Next 3 Opponents: Adelaide (AAMI Stadium), Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium), West Coast (AAMI Stadium).

westoff - franklin

 

Final Buzz: Great question Tim, one many have asked. The Westoff to Franklin trade is a possibility as many are aware. Westoff in 2 weeks could get him up to around $470k and Franklin with a couple of projected 90′s, could sit around $480. Another further week could see them about par, depending on scoring. So Pre-Round 6 could well be on the cards MJ!

 

2.) Josh J Kennedy (FWD) $272,300 BE: -37 AVG: 98 Last 2: 99, 97

This bloke has no doubt stutter-stepped his way into many teams this week due to the Karnezis situation. Many coaches out there have a mancrush/bromance on this bloke and so they should! Need I mention the Eagles play Melbourne this week. Enough said.

Projected Cash Increase: +$40-$50k

Next 3 Opponents: Melbourne (MCG), Carlton (Patersons Stadium), Port Adelaide (AAMI Stadium).

 

3.) Brent Moloney (MID) $309,800 BE: -16 AVG: 98 Last 2: 96, 101

Last year was a howler for Moloney, but the 4 years prior to that he averaged 81+. Looks very comfortable up there in Brisbane and the younger guys will be thriving off Moloney’s contest at the footy. If you have a slot in your side for him, he could make you around $80k or sit in your side as the M8 averaging 85+ all year.

Projected Cash Increase: +$40-$50k

Next 3 Opponents: Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium), North Melbourne (Etihad Stadium), Melbourne (GABBA).

moloney

 

Final Buzz: Thanks for the tweet James! This is a brilliant point regarding Moloney. I honestly don’t think it will affect his scoring much at all. Moloney’s natural game won’t change and I don’t see Black being as in and under as he used to be. By the time Black does return, Moloney might have peaked scoring wise and you might have already moved him on.

 

4.) Charlie Dixon (DEF) $304,800 BE: -30 AVG: 104 Last 2: 98, 110

Dixon is becoming a monster. Can you show the balls to get him in your back-line though? If you are looking for a unique mid-pricer down back, then Dixon could be your man. None the less if you have him in your side at the moment he is going to make you some cash. I don’t think he will stick that close to what he is currently averaging.

Projected Cash Increase: +$40-$50k

Next 3 Opponents: Brisbane (Metricon Stadium), Port Adelaide (Metricon Stadium), GWS Giants (Manuka Oval).

 

5.) Tom Liberatore (MID) $401,300 BE: -5 AVG: 120 Last 2: 120, 120

After a disappointing and early end to 2012, Libba has come out all guns blazing in 2013 pumping out back to back 120′s like it’s no big deal. With Boyd out, this tackling machine has taken upon himself to get the contested ball. Will Boyd’s eventual return affect Libba’s output? I don’t think so, but it will affect Daniel Cross. If looking for a unique, this guy is a genuine find.

Projected Cash Increase: +$35-$45k

Next 3 Opponents: Richmond (Etihad), Adelaide (AAMI), Geelong (Etihad)

 

Special Mention:

mullett

Aaron Mullett (MID) $252,700 BE: -43 AVG: 95 Last 2: 89, 102

As requested Andrew, thanks! The Mullett is heading south to Tassie this weekend to play Sydney at the countries sh*ttest named ground. At around $250k, Aaron is also a unique hard to say no to. Has potential to make you around 100 if he averages 70 over his next 5 games. So in reality, it could be even more than that. Definitely a better buy than Lucas at similar price!

Projected Cash Increase: +$40-$50k

Next 3 Opponents: Sydney (Blundstone Arena), Brisbane (Etihad Stadium), Hawthorn (MCG).

 

Lemon Party.

First things first, take a good long hard look at the picture below.

kitten-playing

Did any player spring to mind? That kitten itself has shown more ability with that ball, than any of these players have in our Dream Team sides. Seriously, look at that ball of fluff. “Oh, this ball is blue and yellow and it rolls around when I move my paw.”  Well good for you kitten. no-one bloody asked you for your advice. Go and choke on something. Ok harsh, but fair. My point is. We sometimes get a bit too “cute” with our selections. This game isn’t rocket science, well, you’d think it was if you spent a day on twitter (brilliant app might I add). Case in point. My rookie selections and premium gun selections have been sound thus far, in all forms of the game. It’s just everything in the middle of my AFL Dream Team, is pure horse sh*t. I mean, come on. I’ll recover from this start, but seriously. Can Lucas actually throw the ball on his foot? Could ZSmith stop rolling around on the ground making 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and even 6th efforts, to score my zero for it? Moving on.

1.) Zachary Smith – $300,700 B/E: 95 AVG: 40.5 Last 2: 47, 34

Leuenberger is out, hmmm, who do I give the 2nd ruck to in his absence? Yeah we’ll give Smith a crack. Ba Bow! In a few years time he might be in our top 2 rucks, just not yet. If you have him, time to say goodbye for now.

Projected Price Fall: -$15-$25k

If Crazy: Hold onto him and hope for the best and watch your sanity disappear!

 

2.) Kane Lucas (MID) – $251,200 B/E: 26 AVG: 61 Last 2: 47, 76

Look, he isn’t the worst picked player ever, thanks to his low price. But do you really risk so much keeping him? If you trade down to a rookie who is about to cash up, you are already pocketing the $140k difference, plus the potential cash making ability off the rookie. Too handball happy and unsure for me. Will go up in price, but slowly.

Projected Cash Increase: +$10k

If Crazy: Give him another chance and see if he plays the Dale Thomas role that so many predicted.

 

3.) Dayne Zorko (MID/FWD) $487,800 BE: 158 AVG: 63.5 Last 2: 52, 75

No-one wants to be that guy that says, I told you so. In all honesty, this was hard to see coming. I think he will come good. The dilemma is if you hold onto him, you are about to get burnt $30k. If that happens, you must hold onto him hoping he comes good. Or trade him now, wait till he flattens out and finds some form, then get him back in, without losing a cent.

Projected Price Fall: -$25k – $35k

zorko

Final Buzz: Well Tom, thanks for the info! It’s impossible to say that first word without saying .com afterwards. #truth

 

4.) Patrick Karnezis (FWD) $238,500 BE: 64 AVG: 37.5 Last 2: 66, 9

I feel a bit for this bloke. Dropped after being allowed to play for 36.5 seconds is pretty harsh. But Vossy obviously forgot he had Karnezis in his own Dream Team. I was going to suggest holding onto him, but as he has been omitted, go for the cash grabs of Dwyer or Neade. You can hold him in your F8 position if you need to move others around, at least you know he won’t be scoring so you don’t play him whilst you do the finishing touches to your side and then next week you can either play him if he is named, or maybe downgrade him to Mayes or upgrade him if you have the cash.

Projected Price Fall: (if he played) -$10k

 

5.) Brock McLean (MID) $516,200 BE: 210 AVG: 46 Last 2: 63, 29

The problem is not that Brock has had a sub affected week, nor is it his ability to get the footy. It’s more so you are spending over $500k that you should be investing in something else. Well, if you keep him, his value is set to plummet!

Projected Price Fall: -$50-$60k

If Crazy: Pick him up in Round 10 for around $400k when he takes on the Giants.

 

Special Mention:

Jack Watts (DEF/FWD) $360,600 BE: 153 AVG: 29 Last 2: 20, 38

Shave the beard, get a real haircut and stop with those cheesy half witted grins. Oh and go get a kick! Melbourne needs you to at least have a crack, get in a pack and throw your weight around. You have ability. Rant over. On a Dream Team front, just don’t even consider it if you were silly enough to in the first place.

Projected Price Fall: (if he played) -$40k-$45k

If Crazy: Put him as Captain this week, go on a bender and watch re-runs of the 2008 draft. At least you know this week he won’t be letting you down.

 

I’ll also be covering some cheap premiums in the future once this week concludes. Be sure to check your team and make sure you are getting as much bang for your buck from each position now on in!

 

If you are bored and want to read some dribble, follow me on twitter! @Aki_DT

 

Join Sportingbet

229 Comments

  • would it be better to trade grimes to heppel or redden to liberatore?

  • I am going to risk it for the cash. Traded in Westhoff for Karneizis and Dixon for Hartlett.

    Both have a pretty easy draw. Next week have enough cash for Buddy and can maybe swap out Dixon next week for a under-performing premo

  • would anyone consider rowe over neade on the field if so why and if not why

    • I would personally have Neade. He’s a handy player for port so I dont see him getting the vest and by the looks of his game he should be good for 50+ a game.

      • i have gone the same but thought i should jus put it out there and see what people thought

  • Caff being out changing what any of you are doing? He is my F8 so not a concern with the other 7 playing.

    Trades so far are k Mitchell to howlett and karnezis to Dwyer. Stick with caff for now?

  • From two seasons of dt, this has been the hardest trade ever. Been a roller coaster ride today for me. First trade karne -> dwyer obvious. 2nd trade is just plain annoying. Want to cull zorko, but seems a waste of a trade, as could go bang. Was thinking kommer -> whitfield, but their earning potential much of a muchness (especially since kommer is almost certainly avoiding green vest, and will find out for sure anyway). Was also looking at kommer moloney, but again seems a $$$ earner waste. Was thinking terlich to heath for a quick price ride and trade back, but heath is a very big chance for vest. Was thinking Danger to another premo (cotchin, watson, or even libba) but he has good record against port adelaide. After hearing caff out, looked at trading him, but there isnt any options I really like (monfries? Big risk. Petterd? Only playeNow I am so no $$$ incentive, already got all fwd rookies worthwhile and JJK] looking at currie -> rowe just to give me more ruck prospects and cover zeroes· even then, dont like his js. Grrrrrrrrrrr. Rant over.

    • Lol, I loved reading this. DT is such an emotional rollercoaster! Just make sure you get Dwyer in.

      • Thanks mate. Dwyer, no brainer. Other trade, no friggin idea. Went with the old fashioned get non playing rookies out. I dont like chasing rainbows, maybe Im old fashioned. I really really dont like these new trade rules, it seems rafferty rules to me. Those who gamble on mid pricers and win may come out winners in the end, most of them will prolly get egg on their face. One of them will win the car.

        • Good move. No point chasing points this week, unless you’re ranked in the top 100 or so IMO. It should all be about cash generation for us plebs at this point.

  • DEF: B.Goddard, B.Gibbs, D.Heppell, J.Pittard, B.Goodes, L.Stevenson. (C.Heath, D.Terlich.)

    MID: D.Swan, G.Ablett, S.Pendlebury, A.Swallow, P.Dangerfield, K.Stevens, O.Wines, J.O’Meara. (B.Crouch, J.Viney.)

    RUC: D.Cox, M.Leuenberger. (M.Blicavs, S.Rowe.)

    FOR: J.Bartel, T.Rockliff, M.Wright, D.Martin, J.Kennedy, S.Dwyer. (B.Macaffer, J.Neade.)

    $101,600 Remaining.

    Done both my trades of:
    Deledio > Swallow.
    Karnezis > Kennedy.

    • Not sure why you are hanging onto koby Stevens? I’d do that before getting rid of lids.

  • Never like to see one of my players get dropped but Caffa out has made my trading decisions so easy this week – Karny > Leuey, Caffa > Dwyer. Bang.

  • Ok guys, need your help and opinions here.

    I need to squeeze J.J.Kennedy into my side, but don’t have enough cash to do a straight swap with Karnezis. Here is my forward line :

    Bartel, Rockliff, Martin, Wright, Macaffer, Karnezis, (Patton, Neade).

    Wright is due to go down by 11K. So I’m thinking about downgrading Wright to JJK and Karnezis to Dwyer. Chucking Macaffer on the bench next to Patton and giving Dwyer and Neade a start.

    What does everyone think of these trades? It leaves me with a massive $336,800 in the bank.

    Also, is it a good choice with choosing Neade on the ground over Patton?

    • $ wise it works. Dwyer and neade are going ok. Caff has to be benched. Patton is going better than I thought he was but not convinced with his consistency.

    • Patton and Neade are adequate bench cover. I’d look to bring in Dwyer for Macaffer and JJK for Karnezis. Wright on the field is at least points in the bank – tough game like the Showdown should suit him.

  • Karny to Kennedy for the cash generation or Zorko to Stevie J to avoid the price drop? The downside to the latter being I have to play both Dwyer and Neade.

    • I’ve said this before. I’ve kept zorko worried he is going to smash it soon.

      • I agree. Zorko should be kept. You guys bought him because he is a gun.

  • I watched “The Hangar” the other night on Fox Footy. Bomber Thompson was talking about Kommer and how he was vested in Rd 2 just for a bit of a rest after smashing it in Rd 1, he said he is back in his home state tonight and that they will give him a real good chance to go out there and smash it again. I’m thinking of putting him on the field over Viney. Anyone think this is a smart move? Any opinions are welcome.

    • Thinking the same thing. Could be a good POD if your opponent isnt doing that, especially since one of the other rookies could get the vest.

    • What chance is Ollie wines for the vest?

    • Saw the same segment and my interest definitely peaked…although not sure how well a small (rookie) forward is going to score against Freo in Perth. Locked in as my emergency at this stage.

    • Kommer should get a nice rest from the tribunal.

  • Seems we don’t give kommer credit coz he is a scrapper and viney is more and out and out midfield. It’s a toss of a coin. I’d go viney though.

  • Certainly lots of money to be made in the next week or two Aki.
    Originally was going Kerridge to Neade and Rampe to Dwyer simply for the cash collection it would provide but with Karnezis being axed brought a change of plan.
    Karnezis traded out for Dwyer and Rampe traded out for L Parker. Although he won’t make as much immediate cash as bringing in a rookie I’m hoping he will score me an extra 40 odd points than the likes of Viney who has now gone to the bench. This will hopefully be enough to get me a win against a tough round 3 league opponent.
    Your thoughts??

  • Might sound stupid BUT
    Looking for a scoring defender, have $427 700 to spend,
    Hartlett could be a option,
    please help me out with some options lads!

    ps – first year of DT