Versus – Round 4: Redden v Selwood

Versus

A head2head analysis of Dream Teams Elite

Each year we are faced with selection decisions that turn into headaches that effectively shape our seasons as Dream Team Coaches. It is imperative to look at all of the issues; all of the positives (and negatives); and get an accurate, well informed opinion before you make that call. This preseason, McRath (with the help of Rob Rusan) will again look at a series of players who, for whatever reason may find themselves in one of these 50-50 calls. This analysis will help you to make an informed decision and let us handle the headaches.

Coming off down years in terms of DT output in 2012 these two players in focus are underpriced and should be pushing heavily for selection in your 2013 squads. Both have the obvious potential to go up past the debatable ‘uber premium’ barrier of 110+, especially Selwood who has threatened for years, and 2013 may very well be their year. At an almost identical price who are you going to pick? Selwood? Redden? Both? or neither? Hopefully I, Rob Rusan (Robdog) have assisted in making your decision easier at the conclusion of this round of Versus.

Jack ReddenRedden Profile

Price: $531 100
Position: Mid
Age: 22
Bye round: 11
Average Last 3 Years: 103.09, 109.18, 79.36

2012 Details
Average: 103.09
Games played: 22
High score: 127
Low score: 66
No. Of 100+ scores: 13
No. Of sub 80 scores: 3

 

Joel Selwood

Selwood Profile

Price: $530 900
Position: Mid
Age: 24
Bye round: 12
Average Last 3 Years: 103.05, 109.29, 106.86

2012 Details
Average: 103.05
Games played: 20
High score: 136
Low score: 62
No. Of 100+ scores: 14
No. Of sub 80 scores: 3

 

Fixture Analysis

Based on 2011 & 2012 Stats (Unless specified otherwise, Injured ga mes are excluded)

Jack Redden

Teams Played in the first 5 rounds: Bulldogs (103.67 avg/3 games), Adelaide (109/3), Suns (92/4), North (121.33/3), Melbourne (103.67/3)

Total average against teams played in the first 5 rounds: 105.934

Teams Played Twice: Bulldogs (103.67/3), Suns (92/4), North (121.33/3), Melbourne (103.67/3), Geelong (88.5/2)

Total average against teams played twice: 101.834

Jack starts off the year with a decent record against the teams he plays in the first 5 weeks. He has the potential to bust out some big scores up against the dogs, suns and dees with very good scores against the crows and roos in previous years holding him in good stead for a big start to the year. His previous average against the teams he plays twice throughout the year is nothing special but is still solid and nothing to count against him given that it is brought down by a lowly record against the Selwood led cats.

 

Joel Selwood

Teams Played in the first 5 rounds: Hawthorn (118.25/4), North (115/2), Blues (120/2), Swans (98.25/4), Bulldogs (96/2)

Total average against teams played in the first 5 rounds: 109.5

Teams Played Twice: Hawthorn (118.25/4), North (115/2), Swans (98.25/4), Power (124/2), Lions (69.5/2)

Total average against teams played twice: 105

Looks set to start off the year with a big bang against the hawks, roos and blues with the hawks and blues being two of his favourite teams to score against over his career and a handy record over the past 2 seasons against the roos. The match against the swans looms as a tough match for him however he should knock out a decent score against he dogs, who he posted scores of 110, 136 & 139 on in the 2009-2010 seasons. Also posts a handy, yet un-inspiring, average of 105 against the teams he plays twice throughout season 2013 due to a very poor previous record when he comes up against the lions (or Andrew Raines). However remove the lions from the mix and he averages a touch over 113 against the other 4 sides he comes up against twice.

Verdict: Selwoods numbers just overshadow Reddens in this section, ensuring him first points in this round of versus (Redden 0 – Selwood 1).

 

Scoring Potential/Ceiling & Consistency

Versus Graph 1

Selwood has the higher ceiling of the two with two scores in the 130-139 scoring bracket, he also boasts 11 scores between 100-119 compared to Reddens 6 which holds him in a good line with the consistency stakes when coupled with the fact he had 3 less games under 100 than Redden also. The big positive for redden is that he scored from 120-129 on an incredible 7 occasions compared to Selwoods 1.

Verdict: Scoring 1 more 100+ score from 2 less games and scoring under 100 3 times less than his opponent Joely Selwood just gets the nod here (Redden 0 – Selwood 2).

Durability

Redden has not missed a game since his debut match (Round 15 2009), showing supreme durability to date which leaves him in very good stead in this category with, to my knowledge (i could be mistaken), no previous concerns in terms of Jack missing games. Selwood has missed just 9 games since debut year, seeing him play 123/132 possible games in this time (excluding finals). However in possibly worrying sign 7 of these have came within the past 2 seasons but 5 can be attributed to suspension and 1 to resting. With 4 of the games he missed from suspension coming from a speculative off the ball incident in 2011 it shows that Selwood missing games is not a major worry and the main concern would be him knocking himself out in games and spending lengthy periods on the bench which can prove to be quite frustrating.

Verdict: Despite Selwoods more than handy record, Reddens remains just about impeccable which sees him get the points here (Redden 1 – Selwood 2).

Current Health and Fitness Reports and NAB Performance to Date

Redden scored a 6 disposal, 20 point game against the hawks from 77% game time and a 10d, 26pt game from 71% gt against the suns for a combined round up of 16 disposals, 48 points from an average of 74% game time.

Selwood knocked out a 7 disposal, 1 goal, 23 point game in 85% game time against the Eagles and a 7d, 2g, 48pt game in 81% of game time up against freo for a combined total of 14d, 3g, 71pts from an average of 83% gt in the two shortened games.

No news on the injury front for either of these players which is promising and also leads to the assumption of a successful pre season for both blokes.

Verdict: Despite Selwoods better performance in round 1 of the NAB Cup it really isn’t much to go off leaving them at relative evens for this category (Redden 1.5 – Selwood 2.5).

 

Bye Week Relevance

Once again, with the ‘best 18’ rule introduced for the byes this year the bye week the players have isn’t as much of a factor as the previous 2 years, however you don’t want to be selecting too many players with the same bye round in the same position. In saying that, Redden shares his rd 11 bye with other premium midfield options of Boyd, Cotchin, Deledio, Tuck and Sammy Mitchell. While Selwood shares his rd 12 bye with low scale midfield premo options such as J.J.Kennedy, A.Swallow, Keiran Jack and brother Scotty Selwood.

Verdict: Selwood does share his bye with uniquer and less legitimate premo mid options than Redden, however we will call it equal here as there is no major push for either based on their bye round (Redden 2 – Selwood 3).

 

Value

After both averaged up around 109 in 2011 they both dropped down to an average of about 103 in 2012 which, you guessed it, has them priced at about 103 for the start of the 2013 season. So based on 2011 statistics both of these blokes are about 6 points underpriced. When you look in to it deeper however you will see that despite the fact Redden scored over 110 15 times out of 16 100+’s in 2011, compared to 9 times in 2012, Selwood holds a fair advantage in this category, based on the following facts from previous years performances (in particular 2011): 1) In 2012 Selwood averaged 103.05, this is his lowest average since 2008, his second AFL season. 2) In 2011 he scored 120+ 7 times out of just 16 full games, compared to his 4/20 in 2012. This included scores of 134, 135 and… wait for it… 178!!  3) Removing his injured 27 from his 2011 season average and it rockets up to an impressive, ‘uber like’ 114.44

Verdict: Selwood just gets the nod here due to the facts he is priced 11 points less than his injury-exempted 2011 average and that his 2012 average was his lowest average since 2008 (Redden 2 – Selwood 4).

Numbers to Consider

Based on statistics from 2012

Jack Redden

Average of tons: 116.08

Average of Sub 100 Scores: 84.33

Average Pre Bye: 101.5

Average Post Bye: 104.42

Average excluding Rd’s 1-5: 108.59

Average in winning teams: 107.5

Average in losing teams: 99.42

Average against eventual top 8 teams: 102.89

Average against eventual bottom 10 teams: 103.23

 

Joel Selwood

Average of tons: 113.07

Average of Sub 100 Scores: 79.67

Average Pre Bye: 104.7

Average Post Bye: 101.4

Average in winning teams: 100.77

Average in losing teams: 107.29

Average against eventual top 8 teams: 108.73

Average against eventual bottom 10 teams: 96.11

 

Final Verdict: Securing the advantage in the main categories of Fixture Analysis, Scoring Potential & Consistency, and Value while dropping only the Durability round, Selwood (currently in 4.9% of teams) gets the final nod here, despite this i also believe that Redden (3.2%) in no way will be a bad pick for your 2013 team and that both of these young guns should be in the top 6-12 mids come the end of the season.

Robdog’s 2013 Predicted Averages: Redden – 108, Selwood 113

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9 Comments

  • Have a feeling looking at Selwoods extended numbers that he is destined to average max 105 for his career.. just consistently 102-106 per year without really pumping out to the big 110+

    Will be ever dependable, but if you want that explosive premo to super premo break out i dont think itll be him.

  • Thanks heaps for the analysis but neither for me.

    A factor which may be missing from these studies is the number of players from the same teams that folk already have in their squad. E.g. with Rockliff, Leuenberger and Moloney already in shitloads of squads, with Hanley featuring in many, how many Lions do you want?

  • Good work Rob. Hard to split them – but I am preferring Selwood due to his round 12 bye.

  • Yea, neither for me.
    Rather pay the extra cash and go an uber premo.

  • Selwood was always under consideration, but after seeing him in the 1st round NAB game and the silky skills, it was enough for me. Not a lock, but pretty close

  • Whilst there is some good analysis here, I don’t think that fixture analysis, scoring ability, durability and other factors should be weighted equally.

  • Good stuff Rob. It’s hard to go past gut feel and mine is Redden.

  • Can’t fit either in my starting lineup while I have GAJ, Swan, Cotch + Pendles but want to bring Redden in at some stage