52 Pickup – The Spades

52pickupsapdesEvery year, there is the bolter. The Ivan Maric, Patty Dangerfield, Dayne Beams, Steele Sidebottom et al from 2012. The Jed Adcock from 2011. The players, that for whatever reason, come from nowhere and become DT relevant. However in 2013, with two trades per week, every week, we can pick these players in our initial starting squad, knowing that if it doesn’t work out – the chopping block is waiting.

It might be due to a change of club, change of role, the ‘3rd year breakout’ or the return from injury. These are also the premium players that are generally overlooked by a majority of DT coaches, for no particular reason.

In 2013, who will it be? Crutton Hutton takes a look at some of the options, the players that might have a breakout season, or just another season at the top of the perch and is overlooked, that will make you wish you passed up on Swan, and selected that player instead (unlikely, but you get my point).

Introducing 52 Pick Up – the players that weren’t looked at in the #DeckofDT, but who are well worth considering for a spot in your starting squad!

Up first – the Spades. These are the players that have potential, and might bolt from nowhere. These players are the really risky picks, which can make or break your season. Can you justify picking these players based on what they can produce, or do you steer clear, given the risk might not match the reward?

Spades

Ben Cunnington (NM) – $387,500

Averaged 54.5 and 52.6 in his first two seasons season, before increasing that to 75.2 in 19 games in his third. Coming in to his fourth year, this hard-bodied inside midfielder at North Melbourne looks to solidify his standing as one of the better young inside midfielders in the game. What makes me think he has turned the corner? His last three games in 2012 he had scores of 110, 95 and 100. Scored under 60 6 times in 2012, however the last one he was subbed off for 29 against the crows in Round 13 – and missed a few weeks with injury. Selected with Pick 5 in the 2009 AFL Draft, he gave recruiters the impression that he was a young Jimmy Bartel… will 2013 be the year he proves it?

Dylan Shiel (GWS) – $378,200

This kid just might fly under the radar this year. Looked extremely promising, after a big build up to his first season, ending with an average of 73.4, before injury prematurely interrupted his first season. Now, why will he fly under the radar? Ward, Scully, Greene, Treloar, Whitfield, Palmer, Coniglio, Tyson… the list goes on. If the GWS youngsters can generally improve on their inaugural season in the AFL, which I think they can, Dylan Shiel will be a big reason why. He looks like Daniel Kerr, and plays like… Daniel Kerr. This kid is an absolute gun, and will be a 100+ average player in no time – in 2013? Probably not. However with the two trades per week – he might just be worth the risk.

Danyle Pearce (FREO) – $376,900

A real smoky that has been banded out by quite a few “tweeps”. No doubting his potential. He can be a highly effective run and carry player, in the similar mould of Aaron Davey. However when he cops a tag, like Aaron Davey, it seems he just goes into his shell and probably lacks a bit of commitment. Will be very interesting to see how he goes under Ross Lyon, who dare I say, doesn’t tolerate sh*t. It might be one of the great pickups if he plays to his potential each week. It might be a waste of time. Predicted average – somewhere between 50 and 90. I can’t work him out.

Aaron Siposs (St K) – $325,000

Word out of St Kilda is that he is training the house down (yeah I know, who isn’t this time of year), and he is being groomed to slip into the Brendan Goddard role. In and out of the side last year, he played 11 games, with his 5 game stretch between rounds 11 and 22 (missed a few weeks there, and not including his sub affected 25 against the Swans) he averaged a very healthy 89.6, including two tons! Looks a very likely type, and after increasing his average from 35.8 in 2011 to 62.9 in 2012 – can his third season in 2013 be his breakout year? One to watch very closely in the NAB cup.

Zac Smith (GC) – $300,700

Now here is a real smoky. One of the most selected players in 2011, he delivered, providing a great R2/R3 option for much of the season (especially the first half of the season), until he fattened up enough to turn into a premo. So what happened last year? Let’s face it; nearly the entire Gold Coast team looked tired last year. The team had a case of the 2nd year blues (pun intended – best match of 2012!). Only averaged 58.4, a significant drop from his very handy 71 in 2011. I expect big Zac to blossom this year, and make the number 1 ruck mantle at the Suns his own. Will get solid competition from Daniel Gorringe, however Zac has the bigger body and frame, and I think he might just shine. Predicted average – 80+.

Cam Pederson (MEL) – $292,000

This guy has been around the traps for a long time now. Played some very consistent footy at Box Hill in the VFL, before finally being thrown a lifeline by North Melbourne. However at North, with the emergence of Scott Thompson, Grima, Delaney etc, was starved of opportunities in his second season, playing only two games. Maintained a healthy-ish average of 71.3 in 2011, and with the scenery change with a move to the demons, might see him get back into the 70 average. I like his job security, I think he plays 22 games this year, given the state of Melbourne’s backline (after losing Jared Rivers) and their rucks – I mean, is Jamar still playing?!? Pretty valuable role player, is a great contested mark, and his bigger body at the dees will really come in handy. Real dark horse – but don’t underestimate him – he is a pretty good footy player.

Shane Savage (HAW) – $285,700

I like Savage. I think he is a mainstay in the Hawthorn midfield/small forward rotations for the next 3-5 years. But Clarko thinks he also looks good in green. With a highly experienced team put out on the park most weeks, guys like Savage are very prone to resemble Kermit. Averaged 55.4 in 2012, after averaging 77.2 in 2011, which included scores of 128, 144 and 164! Massive ceiling for him, all he needs to do is shake the green (and red) vest, and we could see a real smoky here. Can he break out this year? I think he can… but it is more likely it is just a year or two early.

Nathan Bock (GC) – $282,800

Will be a popular pick in 2013. Will be used as a switch man, probably alternating between a key forward and key back post, depending on where he is required/how much the suns are getting smashed by. Missed the first 2 games of 2012 after having a punt at the end of 2011, he broke his leg in the Round 6 game against Fremantle, and missed the remainder of the year. We all know what he is capable of, and has the ability to average a very handy 80-85 as a defender. Turns 30 in March, and coming off an injury like that has to put doubts in your mind. Can he reproduce is 2008-2011 form where he averaged 82.6, or will he struggle to recapture that form after snapping his leg and fade away, like so many others have before him. He reminds me a little of the 2012 Brian Lake, where he might give you some decent scores, but his crappers might make you curse at the TV and then kick the dog.

Jared Polec (BL) – $278,600

Third year rule? Jared Polec is a number 5 draft pick from a the 2010 draft, however as Dyson Heppell, David Swallow, Harley Bennell and other young guns of the 2010 draft get all of the attention – can he go under the radar? Really smoky, will be given every opportunity to cement a spot, and with the Brisbane Lions seemingly on the improve, he could enjoy a break out year. Potential average – 85. Realistic average – 65. Prove me wrong Bean Polec, prove me wrong.

Jordan Russell (COLL) – $264,300

As much as I hate to admit it, Collingwood has a knack for this. Bring over a good, yet under-performing footballer, and set him free. Ask Roy about him – he is a better footballer than people give him credit for. Finished runner-up in Carlton’s B & F in 2010, then, for whatever reason, played musical chairs for the next two years at the blues, playing in only 23 games. Averaged 80.3 in 2010, I think he can reproduce that form – provided he can cement a spot in a very strong Collingwood team. If he does, well at $264K, he is a bargain.

Andrew Krakouer (COLL) – $243,200

As a cash cow two years ago, he divided the DT community. Pre-season and Round 1 was outstanding – then mediocrity set in. Let’s face it, he might pump out the odd 90, but a more realistic average is around 70. But at just a touch above $243K, he might be worth a punt.

Lachie Neale (FREO) – $216,900

He spewed at Pre-season training! Clearly working very hard this off-season, and it’s no secret that Ross Lyon loves him – however, coming into his second year, in an all-of-a-sudden Fremantle side with some quality depth, can he hold down a spot that will be benefit your DT? Capable of an 80+ average sooner rather than later, once he gets his fitness up and cements a spot in the midfield, however probably not this year.

Campbell Heath (PA) – $108,500

Old Campbell Heath managed to find a spot on my bench in 2010 when he was at the swans. He managed two games, with a 71 followed up by a 48… then that was it. Hadn’t played a game for two years, and then got picked up by the Power this off-season, he comes at a basement price. I don’t understand why the Power would bring him in, if they didn’t see a spot for him. In the mix for early games, make sure you keep an eye on him over the NAB cup!

Follow me on twitter @cruttonhutton, and use the hashtag #DTsmokies for anything and everything DT smoky related! (not to mention the #DTshiva… picking up steam!)

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47 Comments

  • whats the deal with nick lower? 3 games last year with an average of 97

    • He had repeated concussion issues and couldn’t make his way back in the team i believe.

    • Lower definitely needs to be on the watch list, should get oppurtunity a plenty with Western Bulldogs

  • Good write up.
    I’d also include guys like Geary, Atley and Nicholson as other risky spades.

  • Top work, also considering C.Howard for a breakout season, thoughts?

  • I’m gonna drop Lewis Jetta in this group as well. Nothing to go on here except guts. 2012 was an exceptional breakout year as everyone knows, which brought his DT scoring up around 30 points to mid 70’s. Now that Jets has shown he can kick goals, handle some open space and has refined his decision making, I think the Swans will be working on getting him that ball more. Expect his DT scoring to rise around another 10 points this season. An incredibly exciting player to watch, a smoky DT choice.

    Disclaimer: Hardcore Swans fan here :)

    • Oh and thanks for the article! Knew I forgot to type something!

      • No problems mate!

        Interesting on the Lewis Jetta – to be honest i haven’t even considered him. My guess at this stage is that he will be just to up and down for my liking!

        • Yeah it is very likely he will be up and down, unfortunately. As he has become the better player he is attracting more opposition interest, which in ’12 showed to be a bit of a problem for him. Will be watching closely :)

  • Hey mate, excellent write up! LOVE this site, can’t believe I have never heard of it before. What are your thoughts on Byrnes and Knights?

  • Krakour is an interesting prospect in DT err Fantasy this year. If he has a run injury free then his skills are too good to be left out and will average 80+. But if he has a couple injuries then I think Collingwood may overlook him in favour of bringing in youth.

    I’m also really looking forward to his next child which should be called Jack for entertainment reasons.

  • I must admit Warnie has just about talked me into Byrnes – for a $229K player that will probably average around the 80 mark, in a forward line (apparently) devoid of rookies… Must be considered.

    Chris Knights is interesting – no doubt he is a highly skilled player, but for the extra 30K or 40K more, i’m not sure he has it in im to average greater than 70 playing that half forward role, or whether he might even cement a spot in the Richmond team. But still – one to watch!

    • The worst thing about Byrnes is Melb may even ease him through the Melb cup as they know exactly what he’s capable of, meaning he might be even more of a unique come Round 1. Also reshuffling my team… out J Kennedy, in Byrnes maybe

    • Had Byrnes for a month now, and I am sold on him. Locked. Think I am keeping away from Siposs until he proves something to me in NAB or first 2 rounds.

      Personally, forward line is almost set. Defence is another story. Wouldn’t mind a good mid-pricer in there.

  • still seriously looking at Myers and Strauss, just waiting on nab form

  • Tough decisions with all the mid pricers this year. Do we bank the money or stack a Premo midfield?

  • Arryn Siposs…

    Played 11 games, 3 green vests, 1 red vest
    Average when playing a full game: 80.14
    TOG% when playing a full game is 84%
    Average if TOG was 84% in all games: 87.23

    Has a high kick to handball ratio. Siposs is 2.15:1. Average is 1.36:1
    Has a high Mark to disposal ratio. Siposs has 1 Mark every 2.5 disposals. Average is 1 in every 4 disposals.

    Saints play Suns in Rd 1 (108 in 2012) and GWS in rd 3 (100 in 2012), so could make some cash early.

  • An article devoted to the least pickable players? Bit of a waste of time.

  • hey, im wondering about tom young. your thoughts?

    • I dont know enough about him to be honest! Crossed over from the pies last year, but i just can’t see him worth a spot in your starting squad due to elevated price (around 216K) and questionable job security and scoring potential… Big no from me!

  • Article a legit waste of time.

    • Well I guess it is fortunate that you have it to spare.

      • I’m just so thankful you had nothing better to do with your time. Thanks for wasting your time on it mate.

        When you win the car at the end of the year (considering your extreme awesomeness), don’t forget to not mention me for wasting your time.

  • Definetly looking at big Zaccy Smith. Do you think that it would be too risky if I did a Zac Smith, Matthew Leuenberger combo?

    • With Campbell Brown coming out and saying he expects a big year from Daniel Gorringe (former first round pick), there is an element of risk picking big Zac… but to me he looked pretty good in 2011, he had a bad year last year, but it’s not unreasonable to expect him to bounce back this year! I think Zac can probably play a very good utility type role as ruck, while also pinch hitting up forward!

      The other one around that price range to consider is Pederson!

      Watch them both closely in the NAB!

    • What i will be doing,

      Zac / Berger Starting

      O’halpin as R3 have COX in FWD line.

      Will use Zac and O’halpin(457k + Profit)to upgrade to premo FWD and move Cox to ruck :)

    • Mate with the 1 million trades we have this year is there even such a thing as risk in DT anymore?

  • Great work Crutt. Sippos is very much on my watch list

  • Cheers for putting Siposs on everyone’s radar Crutt ;) awesome stuff!
    I can’t get over the kick he has, incredible talent!

  • Hoping Pederson goes alright nab cup, good cheap option in defense. Can’t wait for some games! :)

  • Hey Warnie, what about Robbie Gray? Worth a spot in my team this year?

  • You have put doubt in my mind now regarding Pederson .. should get back to a 70 average mmmmmm is that all ? not really much upside in him then is there at 296k ? what you guys think

  • Just realised you have Pederson price wrong its 296,200 .. but who cares were only taliking 4k

  • Cam Pedersen is a forward but he’s available as a defender so he won’t fill the gap that was left by rivers depart he has only played back and ruck a few times.