Luke Ball – Deck of Dream Team 2013

jan10_ballName: Luke Ball
Club: Collingwood
Position: Midfield
Assistant Coach 2013 Price: $343,100
Bye Round: 13
2012 Average: 74
2012 Games Played: 3
Predicted Average: 90 – 95

 

Why should I pick him?

I think at some stage everyone has considered Ball, purely because of his discounted price.

Let’s have a look in some detail.

Firstly, Luke Ball is an absolutely competitive beast. He is an enormously proud footballer and will be very keen to start season 2013 with a bang after his shocking injury in round 3 last year.

Since moving to Collingwood in 2010, he has averaged 91.6 in 2010, 97.0 in 2011 and his first 2 games last year were 110 and 86.

He is priced at an average of 66 ppg. Across 2010 and 2011, he has only been under that on 3 occassions.

Last year he started off the season at $476,500… and after 2 games was averaging 98…meaning he was still underpriced by about 14k.

Just a reminder he is priced at $343k….he will comfortably average 90…meaning he is underpriced by around $150k. He will score at least 90 per week AND will make you money fast.

Need further convincing? His performance in 2011 is better than that of a few high profile player in 2012.

The % of times he scored 100’s was more than Toby Greene, Josh Kennedy, David Mundy, Brad Ebert, Kieren Jack and Andrew Swallow.

The % of time he scored over 110 (True Premo Status) was more than Dangerfield, J Selwood, Greene, Ebert, Jack, Swallow, Kennedy, Mundy

In 2011 he had a 4 game streak averaging 113 and a 3 game streak averaging 112.

He has a decent record against the teams he comes up against early, with my predicted average for him pre bye sitting at 97.

Remember with all of this he is priced @ 66!

Another important thing to note is how he gets his points. 30% of all his points come from tackles. That is more than renown tacklers Swallow and Redden. He has scored more than 7 tackles per game 11 times in 2011 and averages 6.5. He will get you 30 ppg in tackles alone. He also average a touch over 20 possessions a game and I cant see this changing.

The other stat that jumps out for me is his Standard Deviation (Consistency) he is behind only Watson, Redden and Ebert of the top 20 midfielders last year. This includes Swan, Ablett, Pendles, Cotchin, Beams, Boyd etc.

 

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

It really depends on your strategy. Some are running with uber premo midfields or purely guns and rookies. Given those structures he obviously misses out.

He is another Collingwood midfielder. Swan, Pendles and Beams are in a lot of teams and do you have one of those miss for his inclusion?

He is coming off a significant injury and may start the season slow.

Lastly there seem to be a few tasty mid price options this year in Lower, Moloney, Embley, Swallow, Rischitelli… is he worth the punt at his age?

 

Deck of DT Rating.

QUEEN– I believe that Luke Ball is pretty much the bargain of the year. He has numbers better than a lot of players that are being considered for M4 or M5.

Lets be clear here, his number for 2011 when we look at consistency and purple patch are better than Dangerfield, Swallow, Kennedy, Mundy, Joel Selwood and Greene…AND HE IS $160k CHEAPER!

There are more than enough points in the magpie’s midfield to go around. (Swan, Pendles, Beams and Sidebottom contributed 30% of the Pies DT score last year, and they were the 3rd highest DT scoring team) I believe that he will average 90 comfortably and will either make you some good money fast to turn into a Premo before the round 13 Bye or will be a wonderful bench cover for the remainder of the year. I really think that he provides enormous upside and has to be considered for your starting team.

 

 

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40 Comments

  • Spot on Rainman. An absolute champion well worth a midfield starting position. Moloney out – Ball in.

  • For me, because of my current structure, I can’t fit him in. I also think that he won’t average much more than Embley and Embley’s around 80k cheaper. If he stayed at his old price, I most likely would have him in my team.

    • You know, sometimes I dislike DoDT. I dislike it because you’ve got a team which your happy with, then you read the next player in the deck, and automatically considering him. That’s the case with Ball, I was set on my midfield, but now I’m considering getting Ball in. Great writeup though Rainman.

      • thanks Zaydb… the Deck is frustrating.. i have changed my side a few times too based on some of these articles!

  • Cant decide on this bloke, Could very easily dominate and could also very easily start the year in cotton wool and be shit, really want to pick Duncan so its between those 2 for a spot round 1.

  • Pretty good for the money and a balance of good scoring and potential cash rise. I am only concerned with him being eased in at the start of the year and managed close to the bye

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  • Another good article, thanks Rainman.

    I would expect him to be on the park against quality opposition, but given the depth of the Pies mids and the severity of his injury, you’d have to be somewhat concerned about him being “managed” through at least part the year. Still, hard to go past a quality bloke who is so clearly underpriced… the rewards will be there if he can play through the season.

  • Love the write up mate. Very compelling stats there.

    I will be starting with 2 mid-pricers in the midfield in 2013 and Ball is in contention for one of those spots. It will depend on how he looks in the NAB. Coming back from a knee isn’t easy at the best of times.

    I also keep hearing people ask “How will the inclusion of Ball affect Swan, Pendles, Beams, Sidey, Daisy, etc”. Have the same people thought that Ball might actually be eased back into the season. It has to be a possible scenario. At the moment I have Moloney ahead of Ball due to price and the fact that he wont be a chance of any vests. Just a little food for thought ;-)

    Love ya work Rob! You are the master of the Deck. I feel honoured doing DT preseason with such DT royalty!!! I am sure we will have many more discussions about these mid pricers over the next few weeks haha.

    • It’s a definite chance Rids (easing Ball back in). NAB should tell us a bit. As for his output affecting the other gun mids at the Pies, I think that will be minimal when it comes to Swan, Pendles and Beams, but may have an effect on Daisy or Sides.

      We’ll see :)

      • Rumour has it he won’t play any NAB cup so the chances of seeing him before round one isn’t good. I can’t pick a bloke coming off a knee reco with out seeing any pre season form.

        • If Ball doesn’t play any NAB games then he is taken out of the equation for me.

          Will be interesting to see what develops.

          • The vest is a concern, but I’ll have him in my side to start 2013. Too cheap and a big upside. If it doesn’t work out, a cheapy always presents early in the year. I’m also not too fussed about having Beams , Pendles, Swan and Ball in the same side, the team evolves a little by the break rounds anyway. I always have trades left at finals time…. hahaha a couple anyway.

    • Thanks Rids.

      Yeah there is def some risk in Ball, but the reward outweighs it in my eyes. Obviously how he looks in NAB will be a big factor.

      I reckon he is the best of the mid pricers, and i know we differ on that…lots more late night convo’s to follow!

  • Great article, as per usual! Currently have a midfield of Swan, Gaz, Cotch, K Jack, Rocky and Embley. This article has me rethinking that lineup though for the first time in a fortnight.

    Worth trying to squeeze Ball in?

  • Great article rainman!! I have Embley instead atm and don’t really want another midpricer in my mids but you can’t argue with the value he represents. He’ll definately make you money but locking him in for a 95 average is far too optimistic for me. Like others have commented theres a lot of factors that could go against him. The dreaded rest or far worse, the dreaded vest could come into play. How will he return a year out of the game? playing for a new team? with an already elite midfield? what will his role be? will he get injured again? Am still considering him and if he was priced closer to Embley he’d be in for sure but that extra 80k can go a long way and I have embley penciled in for a 90 ave.

    • Love the rest & vest poetry. Also agree that with all these factors, he will hit the 90 average but won’t go a great deal further. With Embley tipped for a 85-90 average and priced over 15ppg less, he’s the more valuable option to me. What does sound tempting about Ball which Rainman mentioned is that he would make a perfect M9.

  • Great stuff as per usually Rob!! This is the one I’ve been waiting for!!! Have had him in since the start but have been thinking about full on guns and rookies. Looking at those numbers he is a lock!!! Thank you ill go and spend 150k elsewhere!!!
    Can’t wait for your next one!!!!

  • With Daisy still in a moonboot at the moment (http://m.couriermail.com.au/sport/afl/collingwood-star-dale-thomas-sports-moonboot-as-the-magpies-hit-the-training-track-today/story-e6frepgo-1226550388550) is it a decent move to remove him from the forwards, move Rocky there, and slot in Ball into the mids?

    • Or perhaps leaving Rocky where he is, and replacing Daisy with De Boer. Hmm.

    • I’d say it is. You’re effectively swapping Daisy for someone who will average just as much according to the article (or 5 less if you ask me) and saving about 130k. Keep an eye on guys like Bartlett, Growden and maybe Kennedy to see if you can have a M/F after all.

      • Yeah the Rocky/Ball move removes the M/F linkup which isn’t ideal at all. Will consider some more.

        • i also have daisy in my fwds, and rocky in my mids
          what do reckon of swapping daisy with robbo?
          or i might put roughead in for a R/F link

  • Ball was locked into my 2013 DT in round 4 last year.
    Move on…. Nothing to see here.

  • Yep he’s been locked in my side since the beginning, I’m carrying both him and Embley. It gives me two guys who will pretty much average 90 for the price of a premium, seems worth it to me! Not to mention the cash they will generate, much safer than some rookies.

    Midfield: Swan, Gaz, Stanton/Pendlebury, Fyfe, Ball, Embley,

    • Running with Ball and Embley at the moment but not running with Swablett. Hoping to see both drop in price early with a chance of upgrading to one of them early.

  • Love your work Rainman!
    I’ll go back to the drawing board and play around with the numbers!!!

  • Good write up Rainman and interesting food for thought.

    Bally doesn’t fit my structure at the moment but would be a good stepping stone to a fallen premo after the bye rounds. Will def consider downgrading Mundy to Ball to free up some cash to strengthen other lines in the meantime.

    Cheers

  • I think the R13 bye for Ball is really good if you were keen to trade him out at some stage. You’ll have two weeks to trade Ball to somebody who has already had their bye- think Boyd, Lids, Redden, Jelwood Cothcin and also guys in other positions thanks to DPP in Buddy, Zork, Birchall, Waters, Bartel, Chappy, Grimes, Pav and the list just goes on.

  • Awesome write up Rob!!

    Since Ball’s price took a massive rise, he was put straight out contention… but this article has got me considering again haha. He does represent great value, especially since his stats are pretty similar to some of the other premos.

    Thing is though… I’ve already locked in Swan and Pendles, and am highly considering Beams. I don’t like the look of 4 Pies mids standing next to eachother in my midfield, so unless I drop one of them, I cant see him starting for me.

  • It bothers me that he’s Collingwood. I’ve locked in Swan, am strongly considering Pendles too. I’ve kinda written off Beams, i don’t know why. For some reason i’m just not confident he’ll produce it again this year. If i pick a bloke who kills it one year, i don’t want to pick them the following year. It’s like i need to be convinced he’s a premium before i pick him as a premium, if that makes sense.

    I reckon Ball has money and points in him, so it’s likely he’ll be in my side at the expense of an established mid gun. I expect he’ll get upgraded when the timing is right. It’s not like we’ll be short on trades this year. Could be a good bye round upgrade if i need to do that to avoid a donut. Haven’t really looked into the byes this year after the top 18 thing was announced.

  • Not really discounted as much, and he will only average 95-not enough to be a M8 at the end of the year.

  • ‘ will be a wonderful bench cover for the remainder of the year’??? why with 8 midfield spots would you want a 400K+ player warming the bench, WOWEE rainman!!!

    • What’s wrong with that? I’m sure most good coaches will be aiming to finish the year with 8 premos going at 105+ in their midfield, particularly with the extra 6 trades. And since there’s 8 of them, there’s a legitimate chance that there could be one missing in any given round and Ball is an ideal sort of guy to bring in.

  • Ball position is now in Beams/Sidebottom hands. Collingwood will be looking to the future now and Ball is 29 now.
    Beams and Pendles for me.