Chris Dawes – Deck of Dream Team 2013

jan04_dawesName: Chris Dawes
Club: Melbourne
Position: Forward
Assistant Coach 2013 Price: $337,700
Bye Round: 12
2012 Average: 65.5
2012 Games Played: 20
Predicted Average: 75

Why Should I Pick Him?

Ok, so this isn’t going to be easy to convince you.  The guy is coming off of his worst season since he became a regular.  However, the one key thing that he has going for him is that he has changed clubs.  We all know that this can change the fortunes of some players and if this doesn’t change the fortunes of Chris Dawes it won’t just be his DT Career that will be over.

With both Jamar and Mitch Clark in the team, Dawes will be spending a lot less time as a backup ruckman and much more time as a permanent forward.  Whilst at Collingwood he was the second option up forward, which may not change as much at Melbourne with Clark in the forward line, however at Collingwood there were a lot of other options that were kicking goals like Swanny, Pendles and Daisy just to name a few.  Over the past 3 years he has been averaging over 1.5 goals a game, however, last year that dropped right down to 0.7 per game.  So if he can lift that back to where it was that will find some of those missing points.  I am convinced that it was the amount of ruck work that he did that did affect his scoring.  The other change is that over those years when he was scoring 1.5 goals a game he was also averaging less than a hit out per game and last year was nearly 4 hitouts a game.

DawesGoalsvHitouts

 

His previous years his scores were 66, 67 and 72.  So he isn’t going to be a superstar, but he is a solid consistent scorer.  I think that a move away from the ruck will mean that his marking will be closer to goals.  His marking stats have remained stable over the last 3 years, it is where abouts on the ground that he was getting them that was the issue.

Why Shouldn’t I Pick Him?

At Collingwood there were plenty of options up forward.  At Melbourne, there won’t be that many other options and hence he will attract one of the better defenders.  This is going to make it much harder for him to get the ball, and to be honest, he had a fair bit of trouble finding the footy last year.  For that reason alone you shouldn’t pick the guy.  It seemed like every time the ball came towards him it turned into a piece of soap and it just slipped through his fingers all the time!

Once again he will be the second string forward whilst Mitch is up in the forward line, so he won’t be the first targetted when the ball comes out of hte midfield…. oh, there is another issue.  He was on a top side in Collingwood where there was plenty of ball coming into the foward line and high quality players delivering it lace out.  Now he is at Melbourne, a side that is far from the top and they don’t have the same level of quality players delivering the footy.  So the supply will certainly be restricted, this won’t help his scoring potential.

Deck of DT Rating: Jack.  There is a hell of a lot of risk with Dawes.  At the price of $337k you can pick up a guy like Alan Didak.  I think that he has more upside than Dawes.  Having said that, if you are looking at Midprice Mayhem then you could consider Dawes.  If he can stay put up forward and get plenty of looks at the ball then he could just pay off.  A big risk though!  Certainly keep a close eye on his role during the NAB Cup and then make an assessment of what you think he is capable of.

Follow Me On Twitter: @pkd73 and let me know what you think of Chris Dawes.  Make sure you use #DeckofDT in your tweets about the Deck.

 

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64 Comments

  • Its a definite no for me. Far to many better mid-priced Fwds out there.

  • When you consider that Dids is the same price, LeCras only 20k more and then Knights, JJK, Licha, Varcoe, Byrnes etc for much less it’s difficult to justify having him at the top of your list.

  • I know picking 52 players that aren’t all obvious is hard but I doubt anyone would hitch their wagon to this dud. When paying over 300K for a player that you would be happy with a 70 out of I think you are wasting your dough. Hopefully tomorrows feature on Jesse White will be more relevant.

  • hate to be critical, but c’mon.
    you would of been far better off doing a write up of taylor walker. he’ll be a massive POD.
    even shaun mckernan is looking good to me as a smokey.

    • The aim I think was for each of the guys to have a club that they do writeups for. 3 players for each team makes 54 players, which is close enough to a deck.
      When it comes to the Demons, I can see why Dunny did Dawes. I can see less experienced DTers thinking that he’d be a great pickup (which he’s not).
      BTW, Dunny, I hope you don’t do Viney. Ideally the other two would be Pederson and Sylvia.
      Oh, wait, you did Watts, didn’t you…
      Oh, wait, that was TeeTee…
      Disregard the above. Great article Dunny!

    • Taylor Walker would be an interesting POD. McKernan I can’t see, but I’m definitely keeping an eye on Josh Jenkins’ pre-season..

      • it’s going to be a real scrap between jenkins and Mckernan. Although matt rendell thought jenkins would make a great Full back to replace rutten. I think Mckernan has a great upside, he can play. well they both can. interesting to see what happens in NAB cup. Crouch for Rising star!

        • I don’t know much about the Crows, but what about Angus Graham? Where would he rank in relation to Jenkins & McKernan.

          • I think the problem for angus is his ruck work is ahead of josh, but josh forward work and presence is ahead of angus. and jacobs being 1st ruck with jenkins recruited in the first place to cover for the expexted tippet move, i think angus will struggle for regular time. Unless of course he can become a lot more of a presence. he is an accurate kick for goal though. is jacobs gets injured he’d be a lock.

        • I mainly meant from a DT perspective, Jenkins has shown a bit more promise than McKernan. There is still a long way to go before round 1, but from my point of view I’d say Jenkins deserves first crack at Tippett’s spot.

    • Worth mentioning that the Authors do not pick the players, they are drawn at random from a pool decided by Warnie and the boys. Instead of thinking, wow, I’m not doing that, the writers put in significant time to look at each player, agreed with or not. Simply saying “not for me because…” is far more constructive than criticizing the deck’s players selection.

  • interesting pick Dunny , nice work

  • Nice write up Dunny. But no for me. With only 6 forwards he is too big a risk.

  • No and no.
    Besides I reckon Jamar is gonna be a dud under the new ruck rules and Dawes will end up being called upon to do ruck duties anyway.

  • Interesting write up. Kudos for not just picking a mainstream player.

  • Dream team poison surely? Not in a million years.

  • Thanks for the comments guys. Yes he isn’t going to be a first picked for anyone, but he may become relevant in the Demons forward line. I would have a look at him over the NAB and see what happens and how he is used. If he is the number one go to forward he may be a little better than you think.

    It would be easy to pick the 52 best DT players and do them, but wouldn’t that get a bit boring? We have lots of obvious guys in the deck, but it is good to have some variety also. Of the 4 guys that I am profiling, three of them are obvious and this is the one that is a bit out there.

    Cheers all and hope you enjoy the Deck!

    • Well said Dunny.

      To everyone complaining – I would have thought the whole idea of the deck was to throw up a few players from left field that you hadn’t thought about, in amongst the obvious ones. Much more useful than just addressing all the guys we are all going to consider anyway – particularly just focussing on guns, which is useless. A mixture of guns, popular underpriced players, and a few from left field is surely the way to go.

      Good write up mate.

      • agreed. +

      • How is it use less when you have 52 ‘guns’ with 8 in your midfield. You could do a deck of 20
        Of the top midfielders and still create a point of difference. The problem is people are to scared to voice their opinion on here because people like you want to wrap their lips around the dicks of the authors. Instead of shooting down anyone that has an opinion other than the people that run the site use your comment to contribute something constructive

  • Played out of position last year he could only manage five 80+ points games (two 100+ games) for the full season, but in 2011 in the 12 games he played prior to injuring his hand in round 15 he had six 80+ games with three of those 100+ for an average of 83.

    He is going to be a target.
    If he (and a big IF) can fix his marking issues because he dropped too many last year, he could prove to be a diamond in the rough.
    All of a sudden extra points for marks, which may also turn into extra points for goals, will see his average improve on his early 2011 83 point average.

    He definitely has JS unlike Didak who may be vested more often than not.

    If his NAB form holds up I think he is worth considering.

  • Mr Bugger, you’d be well served to stay well clear of Shaun McKernan. Offers much but delivers very little. He doesnt stay in games for long enough ‘patchy player’, has been in the system for a long time 5th year on list and yet with all this ability gets regular games with South Adelaide…. and doesnt dominate. It should be a firm no from you.

  • I love the work that you guys do, but Chris Dawes? I mean if you’re planning on picking him and hoping for a ten point increase from the 330kish player then something is amiss. I know that you need to keep the deck fresh but this is just trash. With 6 spots for Fwds you have to get the very best in and dawesy ain’t going to cut it, especially when you get a similar output froma rookie. Should be listed as a joker but then again so should Zac Dawson

    • I think my 10pt increase is realistic, but yes, I would like more of an increase before I picked him. He could be a joker, but he does seem to be fairly consistent around that 60-70 point range. Not a gun, but he could improve. I will certainly watch his progress throughout the year as I want to see what happens if he does start to hold those marks.

  • Although good use of stats dunny

  • Right guys, just because a player is in the deck doesn’t mean that he is someone that should be in your team. These articles are designed to provide facts and opinions on potential choices so you can use that brain of yours to make the decision for yourself. I would hate to see all these articles show only premo players.

    Great work Dunny. As a Melbourne man, even I can’t select Dawes for his price or potential output but I’m happy to have at the Dees for what he can do forvour team.

    • They should at least be fantasy relevant. You wouldn’t pick this bloke in a million years. The Deck of Dream team is fantastic and the guys do a brilliant job writing it however a bit of feedback on the selctions shouldn’t go astray.

      • Not every person who comes to this site has been playing DT for years and these articles can be gold for those new players, stopping them from selecting players like Dawes and making sure they enjoy their whole season.

        I actually see less value in articles on Swan, Ablett etc..

  • Thats a big NO from me

  • I’m not sure why you can’t do the best 52 players. You can only pick 30 and there’s no way you would fit them all in your squad. This is by no means criticism just a thought that the deck could be used to differentiate between the premiums and let people find there own diamonds in the rough.

    • I agree.
      This is not a criticism just a comment (DT Talk after all)
      Premos or undervalued players provide something to really think about.
      Every time we get a new card for a ‘must have’ player we have a new headache on how to fit them in our team and we see our teams evolve every week.

      Chris Dawes will change nobody’s team today.

  • Great work Dunny!

    All you guys criticizing the choice of players put in the deck pull your f+#king heads out your arse. The DT Talk lads are doing this in their own free time (free of charge) and doing a great job! If any of you guys think you can do a better job, stop whinging and bloody well do it! Personally I’d much rather see players in the deck that you probably wouldn’t of had a second thought about, sure beats reading about everyone’s massive lock players in Swan, Ablett, Goddard, Franklin. Keep the POD players coming!!!

      • If everybody agrees that everything is great we can’t see the errors of our ways. DT Talk is one of the best sites on the web but if they don’t know what the public wants they have less chance to improve. Why shouldn’t DT Talk strive for even higher levels of excellence? Positive feedback is essential in many walks of life. Surely DT Talk should be no different. We, the readers, are their constituency so why shouldn’t we make our voices heard? In Germany no-one could criticise Hitler and look at how that turned out. Different views and opinions and the freedom to express them is what makes our society so great.The DT Talk community should strive to emulate this, not prey on those who’s perspective is at odds with those of the website administrators. I say long live DT Talk and long live us, the DT Talk community.

        • I completely agree… however, the community is very mixed. You will NEVER please everyone – in the 7 years that DT Talk has been in existance, I have learnt this massively! Some have whinged about people being too much of a lock and some have said they shouldn’t even be considered. Anyway, there are another 26 players (I think) to come… and there is a big mix, so hopefully people come back and check them out. Tomorrow is a ripper… but I bet some will think it’s shit. That’s the nature of the beast… or as some call it, the community! ;)

        • As you said “positive feedback is essential in many walks of life”, I couldn’t agree more! No one said people couldn’t voice their opinion, but people referring to an article as trash or a joke and a waste of a deck i don’t call that positive feedback! If a reader doesn’t want to pick a player in the deck but wants to comment on an article that’s fine! Simply saying “no, not for me” instead of demeaning the writer for his efforts would be a good start for these people.

        • Mate I don’t think you know what “positive” means.

        • I can’t believe you brought Hitler into this

    • Remove your lips from their arse Daniel. No one was criticising the boys it’s called constructive criticism. Something 14 year old boys like your self wouldn’t understand. All I said nicely was id be just as happy to see the best 52 players in the deck instead of the roughies that people could find themselves. I’ve been reading the my ten posts and someone like yourself would love articles like this because your not capable of finding a decent POD

      • I just want to set this straight! Your comment wasn’t the one I was referring to, I’m sorry my intentions weren’t to upset you. I’ll take your, “constructive criticism” on board and try my best to find that decent POD that no one else will have. The 14 year old boy comment gave me a chuckle, I’m actually 28 so your halfway there mate! No hard feelings keep up the good work.

  • Nice write-up Dunny.. Dawes is a KPP and not a very good one at that .. he was crap at Collingwood and i cant see much changing now he plays for the Dees.

    @ GrandoldFlag .. Swan and ablett less relevant to the deck than Dawes ? cmon their the best players and the most expensive players you want to know about their draws pre-season and any niggling injuries they might have . If you thought about not starting a Swan or Ablett and then saw the deck you might start thinking twice after seeing their seasons in stats and data.

  • Ahh… blame Calvin on this one! Haha. I am going to make him select him in his initial team for getting him onto the Deck list.

    In all seriousness though, he has upside… he’s pretty young and KPPs obviously take a long time to develop. I can see him being better, but obviously he’s not going anywhere near my team… on the other hand, maybe he could be a great smokie for the new draft game?! Covering all bases here at DT Talk.

    Great work, Dunny!

    • Damn the 6 months wait for dream team to start. the Wolves are getting hungier by the day.
      Fuck it, if noone else will then i will….

      LOCK. i wont win the car anyway.

    • That’s fair enough warnie. I have no problems reading about a few smokies. I’d just love to see the top 52 players covered….. Which by the way would be pretty impressive still to try and fit them into your squad. I couldn’t care less who you guys covered all tho to hear you guys talking up some one I’ve already picked in my squad to help reassure me I’ve done the right thing haha

  • OFF TOPIC. I have a cash league (based on national ranking) im running $50 entry, prizes 1st – $450 2nd – $270 3rd – $180. Asking early to ensure league filled well in advance. Email me Damien for detailed info at wish2dreamcorp@gmail.com with heading Cash league Dream Team 2013

    Ran it last year and it went well :)

    Cheers
    Damien

    • Can anyone confirm this is real and not a nigerian hottie “Looking for love”. if so i might be interested.

      • I just threw a lazy $50 in there, so far the response seems “real”. However, I wouldnt mind knowing if someone has actually ran with him from last season.

      • Located in Launceston mate, chuck me an email if you’re keen to win some cash :D

  • The ‘not-so-relevant’ players seem to be getting the most comments and discussion, of which, a f**k-ton of it is some twat whinging. The poms already have The Ashes, don’t let them take DT Talk too.

    Unless you have a crystal ball then no player is irrelevant (except Zac Dawson). Every year there are always a few bolters who come from nowhere. What’s to say Dawes won’t be the bolter this year? Or Menzel? Brock McLean started last year as a ‘not-so-relevant’ player coming off 60s, 70s and 80s at his best, then finished the year averaging over 100.

    I’d rather read an article on why I should consider Dawes or Menzel than why I should pick up Ablett or Swan.

    I hope for shits and giggles that the next 3 Decks are on Dawson, Glass and a retrospective look at Prestigiacomo – just in case he makes an unexpected return from retirement.

    • Whats giving me the shits is everyone commenting/whinging about what other people think .. just reply about the deck and move on ;)

      • Irony at its best – complaining that other people are talking about other people. I think my head might explode.

        • Perhaps your misread, I don’t recall complaining, merely observing and giving my opinion on Dawes, etc..

          • I think cranker was referring to AFFEL’s comment.

          • Hilarious yes i think it was directed at me hehehe .. i agree with Cranker im gonna take some of my own advice and just comment on the Deck rather than WHINGING about other peoples comments.

  • Perhaps a solution to the deck for next year is to have a voting system whereby the most popular players get articles written about them – that way the public only has themselves to blame if an article is done on a crab player.

  • Nice write up Dunny but no thanks.

  • Cheers Dunny! Great job mate. Very easy job writing something about Swan or Ablett but guys like Dawes take some effort!

    I wont be selecting Dawes but who knows. He does have some upside believe it or not. Might actually kill it at a new home.

    Stranger things have happened lol

  • Everyone has gotta take positive feedback, you don’t need to come to their defence everytime. If you think this is a good choice your living on another planet. POD’s are great for the deck, but there are 20 POD’s I’d prefer to see in here over Dawes, he is a NO go zone. Don’t even try and tempt people. Also you need to see all the premos as you can only fit say 13 or 14 in your team anyway, do I want Stanton or Murphy in midfield? How are they both traveling etc. You get my point, best DT site out there but everyone makes mistakes. Don’t try back this choice up, I’m sure tomorrows will be brilliant :D Just feedback, not criticism.

  • sounds like dawes will be a unique component of my side

    • Best comment so far!

      He won’t be in my side, but I’ve got to confess he was in 2011. He started the year with sticky hands and was kicking for goal as well as Cloke (who also was in form at the time!) while drawing the 2nd best defender. He looked like he could have the kind of ‘breakout’ season that the Tomahawk had in 2012.

      Alas, it was a false dawn, indeed, he’s gone backwards since for reasons Dunny has outlined above.

      Still, my mistake shows the reason even Chris Dawes can be a useful write-up for the Deck. Don’t worry, there’s only been one other ‘Joker’ so far, and probably only one more to come.

      I’m still not an expert at DT, but I’m a lot better than I was thanks to DTT.

      Cheers all, and bring on the season!!

  • Funny how such a maligned article has actually generated the most discussion of any DeckofDT so far :)