Marc Murphy – Deck of Dream Team 2013

dec21_murphyName: Marc Murphy
Club: Carlton
Position: MID
Assistant Coach 2013 Price: $522,000
Bye Round: 13
2012 Average: 100.8
2012 Games Played: 16
Predicted Average: 115

 

Why should I pick him?

Let’s make no bones about it – almost everyone reading this will agree that Marc Murphy is a gun. He is the lynch pin in a hi-po Carlton midfield. He has been skirting the periphery of the elite fantasy MID club since his stellar 2011 season when he averaged 111.4 ppg.

A breakdown of his 2011 season shows:

  • He dropped below the ton just six times in 22 games.
  • In 16 games where he bettered the ton, he posted 11 scores in excess of 110 ppg.

Following on from that, Murphy’s 2012 season got off to a flyer – he stepped out with 116, 115, 139, 114 and 117 in his first five games. Of course, we all know his shoulder was broken in Round 8 and he consequently missed seven weeks of football. He came back ahead of schedule and posted a very respectable average of 102.8 for the remaining eight games.

The point of all that number crunching is to highlight Murphy’s elite potential when he resumes in 2013 at full strength. Opening at $522k, he is slightly underpriced for a midfielder who is more than capable of returning consistent 110+ scores. His price point makes him a straightforward selection to slot in at M3, behind one or two top-dollar elites like Swan ($668k) and GAJ ($642k). Regular weekly returns of 120-130 can be expected from him. That’s the real beauty of this premo – while his ceiling may not be as high as Swan or Ablett, Murphy rarely hits deep troughs. Coaches can confidently pick him in their MIDs, sit back and collect.

His durability is also a strong point. While he came off the worse when he clashed with Dangerfield, it was more accidental than clumsy and prior to that he missed just one game in five years. He is a beefy unit and has the size to take the beatings and the tank to run for four quarters in every week of next season’s 23 rounds. While we obviously can’t predict the course of his health for the 2013 season, it is comforting to know that, at this point, he is one that you don’t have to have a contingency plan for with the exception for his R13 bye.

 

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Murphy copped the opposition’s best tagger in quite a few games last season and it is reasonable to expect that this will be a regular occurrence in 2013. Bearing this in mind, there is a valid query around his inability to break the hard tag. Let’s have a look at a small sample from 2012…

Round Opposition (Tagger) Score
6 GWS (McDonald) 94
7 STK (Jones) 68
17 WB (Picken) 85
20 BL (Raines) 99
22 GCS (Stanley) 92
23 STK (Montagna) 76

While not a major negative, his output can be slowed somewhat by effective taggers. It’s hard to argue this case too heavily against him though, as most premium MIDs are susceptible to the occasional quiet game when marked closely.

While it’s doubtful that new coach Mick Malthouse will make any significant changes to Murphy’s role, it is cause for just a minor niggle. This will hopefully reveal itself in the pre-season. Of slightly more concern is how Bryce Gibbs may impact Murphy’s scores. Gibbsy was largely wasted last year, playing in numerous shutdown or tagging roles. He could, nay, should be fully utilised in the Carlton midfield and this might reduce the workload of Messers Murphy and Judd, possibly relieving them of a few disposals per game. Again, we’ll have some idea of Malthouse’s structure when the pre-season proper kicks off.

The possibility of taking on the captaincy adds an immeasurable unknown to Murphy. Some thrive on it while others sink under the weight of responsibility. Regardless of this factor, my expectation is for Murphy to step it up a notch and leading Carlton will add to his drive for success. At the least, his fantasy scoring should not regress in 2013.

 

Deck of DT Rating.

ACE – Although he is almost an elite MID, he has yet to establish himself in the upper echelons of fake footy superstardom. However, as a premium in his own right, it is realistic to expect that as he continues to improve his game, his fantasy scoring will do likewise and he will smash the glass ceiling to vault into the elite category. Whether he fits into your starting lineup depends on your mix of eight in the middle, but he is certainly worth consideration as a set-and-forget selection.

 

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35 Comments

  • Great work TeeTee! But he is not for me, i doubt i could even find room for him with the other great MID options out there.

  • Firstly can I just say how great it is to wake up today and still be alive!!!
    In saying that you now present me with the dilemma of whether to take on Murph!
    I have to admit I’d pretty much ruled him out but there’s certainly some great potential there.
    Great article Tee Tee.

  • I would get him in but there is queries on how malthouse will set up as you said and that is making me not want to get him. I prefer Cotchin, Ablett, Swan, Rock/Redden, Watson midfield

  • Nice work Tee Tee, locked and loaded in at M5 for me!

  • After reading this, out Pendlebury, in Murphy

    • I’m not sure about that Aidan. Murphy is a great option, as highlighted here, but in my opinion Pendles is better, I’m sure there’ll be a Deck of DT article that makes you go, Out Murphy, in Pendlebury. If you have Beams, I’d be ditching him for Murphy instead.

    • Why not have both, value for $

  • Well balanced article TeeTee! I’m glad you mentioned he started to get tagged a lot last year – that’s why I won’t pick him this year, his DT scores couldn’t handle the tag. Also, he very rarely gets past 120, so you can’t captain him for one, and also any low score due to tagging has no monster score to balance it. Boyd may get 70 but also 160. Same with Stevie J. And Ablett. Murphy doesn’t, so I’d be surprised if he avg’d 110 again this yr.

    • +1 Exactly why I’m not picking him! I think O’Keefe has taken the spot he would have to go in my team at M5 and O’Keefe has the high ceiling that makes up for his slightly lower scores where Murphy doesn’t!

    • @3rdMonkey

      I captained Murphy this year when he scored 163 points. :-)

    • Defo only expect 1-2 big games from him, so low ceiling. But his fairly regular 110-120s are enticing!

  • Top notch write up Kev. Being a blue boy, I love Murph… But will look to him as an upgrade based on seeing how his role plays out under Mick.

    Well done

    • Looking forward to your words of wisdom and crystal-balling on your Blues boys with MM running the show mate – share, share, share!!

  • He slips in ahead of Redden at this stage due to the fact he started the season better and would take a long time to be an affordable upgrade target.

  • He’s practically set for me as my 5 but if I change that structure then he’ll prolly be the one to go….

  • Grrrr not happy TeeTee!!! I have been saying from day dot that murphy is one of the easiest no brainer locks and will easily bust out 110+ and copped a lot of flack about my views. I have rejoiced that so many are unwilling to start with him and then you go and write this and give him an ace rating!!! Going from the comments so far though it still seems many don’t want to start with him :) but PLEASE can you delete this article now or something before more people read it?? Seriously though mate, awesome article, great use of stats, well done!!

    • Hahaha – sorry Dools! I’ve started him for the last 2 seasons and he’s a lock so far.

      Don’t stress too much though mate, with the expanded midfield and a very deep pool of fantasy MID talent, I reckon Murphy will still be a bit of a unique.

      • yep its sure looking that way which has got me deadset stunned! Do people seriously think a player of murphys talent isn’t gonna significantly improve on a 101 average ffs??? was stunned last year every one was shunning hmac, even after his nab cup form! The lack of interest for murphs among the doozy of bafflers to my logic anyway of 2013 (but more than fine by me)

        • Very good write up tee tee! I have had murphy nocked in since rd 23 finished! but always need to consider how is going towards the end of pre-season and NAB cup plays a part on our final decisions , but at the moment 100% lock! At full fitness is ultra consistent as you highlighted by his first 5 rounds.
          Agree 100% Dools, has to be a lock atm just not sure where yet. Either mid 4 or 5! and don’t understand all the hate on muph (or maybe everyone is just playing down the hype!)!

  • Reckon Murph would have averaged 110+ this year had he not got injured, which would have put him in the top 6 mids for the season. Buying him @ a 100ppg price is paying unders

  • One of my first picked. I have extreme faith in him.

  • Yeah I’m not sure about Marc. He’s a strong candidate for the captaincy and with that added pressure his scores may drop a little. I see more upside picking Chris Judd, priced at $465k and without the captaincy may get back to his brilliant best.

    • Astute thinking on Judd, will be very interesting to see how he goes in 2013 without the captaincy and also with Murphy wearing the #1 tagger.

      • I reckon judd will still get the tagger most weeks.. I see murphy as the accumulator like swan where Judd is the dangerous midfielder who rips oppositions to shreds

  • Don’t forget the man has had pre-season surgery (knee?) and isn’t near full rat power yet like a judd or gibbs. Still chipping away in the rehab group. May be fine but does that sway any 50/50’s away from him?

  • I think my structure won’t allow me to afford him in my starting side. If he was a bit cheaper he’d make it in on price, but i think my top dollar mids are locked in and i need to go a lot cheaper for the other spots unless i decide to skimp in other areas.

    I do reckon he’ll be pretty unique though, and i expect him to go up another level, so if i can find room he’s one of the ones i’d be looking to squeeze in rather than say Redden, Mitchell or Thompson.

    Definitely a top priority upgrade target though.

  • Great read TeeTee…….LOCK! LOCK! LOCK!

  • Give Murph the captaincy and watch his scores grow. You name me a player that doesnt improve under Mick Malthouse…. Gentlemen Carlton will now finally play team orientated football rather than individualised scrabble. You’d be fools not to lock him in…. He is a LOCK for the BLADES!

  • LOCK, LOCK AND LOCK. As simple as that. His scores will go up up up up. Watching his NAB Cup form.

  • Yeah one of my first picked for this season. Under valued 110+ player

  • Lovely article TeeTee as always!

    This article has me considering him but he hurt me this year getting injured, so unfortunately, he is a pass for me.

  • Insta pick for me after that 22? from his shoulder early/mid season. Can’t imagine his numbers dropping under Malthouse. Offers good value and a uber premium scorer. Can’t really go wrong.

  • Take it from a Carlton fan; Murphy will smash it this year. He’s already bulked up big time during the off season training in Arizona and means business.