Brian Lake – Deck of Dream Team 2013

dec16_lakeName: Brian Lake
Club: Hawthorn
Position: Defender
Assistant Coach 2013 Price: $392,800
Bye Round: 11
2012 Average: 76
2012 Games Played: 20
Predicted Average:  90

Why should I pick him?

At first, I couldn’t really understand why the hell Brian Lake was even in the deck? Who would want a washed up 31yo in their dream fantasy team ?

Obviously ol’ Brian must be some chop as he averaged a Bradmanesque 99.77 back in 2010, including huge a ceiling of 192 which was a record score at the time. Back then the Western Bulldogs were a top 4 team and he was running around with his mate Hargrave playing chippety chip and throwing himself forward whenever he wanted.

With a bit of research into the correlation of Lake’s DT scores and his team success, I found that we are dealing with one of the biggest downhill skiers in DT!

Year Games won DT Average winning DT average losing
2010 14 110 81.5
2012 5 105 69

*didn’t include 2011 as only 5 games were played

So with Lake’s off season move to Glenferrie, we are now putting one of the sluttiest defenders in DT  in one of the sluttiest defences of the AFL. Lake is gonna rack up those +6 with his new BFFs Birchall, Suckling and Guerra. Even last season when the bulldogs finally realised that their premiership window had slammed shut, Lake tonned up in 4/5 wins and the other score was a super respectable 94.

Lake is priced at an average of 76 which I believe is underpriced for him if you take into account his success in a winning team, thus why I think he could get his average back to the 90 mark if he stays on the park. Lake’s job security at Hawthorn should also be pretty good. You don’t trade for a 30 year old of Lake’s ilk in a premiership window if you’re not gonna play him .In 2012 Lake also showed us his durability of yesteryears (2 games missed from 2005 – 2010) by playing 20 games and showing 2011 wasn’t a sign of things to come. Add in potential DEF/FWD eligibility and Lake becomes someone you may start to consider….

Why shouldn’t I pick him?

Many a DTer would naturally not even consider Lake simply because he is over 30 and this is probably one of the biggest reasons he won’t be as popular as others around his price such as Broughton, Enright and Adcock. Lake had a horror season in 2011, playing only 5 games and many people thought he was finished. While he showed his durability last year he may be one bad injury away from retirement. There also seems to be a curse at Hawthorn with new mature age recruits succumbing to injuries early in their time at the club with Gibson, Burgoyne Hale and Bruce just to name a few that have endured this.

Other things to think about before locking Lake in your team is to consider why Lake was recruited by Hawthorn. There is no doubt Lake will get loose throughout the season, but there is a lot of people saying that he will take the #1 forward every week, leaving Josh Gibson do what he does best and be 3rd man up to punch  (imagined if he marked…). Taking a Cloke or Hawkins every week comes with a degree of accountability which is largely frowned upon in  DT circles, so expect Lake to have some 50’s with his 120’s

Deck of DT Rating.

Queen. Lake is a pretty big gamble to start the season with, as given we only need 6 forwards or defenders, he will likely slip down the pecking order further . Lake may slip into the ‘unique’ category and a good POD to the Gibbs’ Goddard’s and Broughton’s of many a teams defence line.

 

Follow me on Twitter @jimbobholder for DT and cricket musings! Got something to say about the deck? Use the hashtag… #DeckofDT.

21 Comments

  • Thanks JimmyBob. Seriously worth considering at the price.

  • I’ll have to see how much of this kick-to-kick he can manage whilst likely minding the best opposition forward. The Hawks recruited him to win a flag by suring up the defence and namely Schoenmakers, so we’ll have to watch in the NAB an possibly round 1 and 2 to see how creative they want him to be.

  • Just about a lock, should get alot of +12’s, will watch where he plays in Nab Cup though…

  • Great Article.
    I’m Torn. Last year Lake was a Gamble i took in my initial squad. My mate and “Arch Enemy” went with Hargraves. Needless to say after a few rounds i was sweating in my sleep thinking how stupid i was. But the old fella came through for me all year and stayed in my team Until he bombed in finals just when i needed him. I reckon get on him early and try and upgrade later on.

  • Brilliant selection JimmyBob! And terrific research! He was on my short list but you’ve mentioned a few things I didn’t know (such as his scoring when the team wins).

    Doubt most will take the chance but could be a ripping pick.

  • Great work Jim Bob – I like the winning team analysis and agree this should help him.

    Whilst he isn’t in my team as yet, depending on tomorrow’s prices (one more sleep) I may have to slot him in for Broughton if the prices are too ugly.

    Big watch list for me.

  • Not even slightly interested. In his 11 year career has only averaged more than 82 once. That’s shocking! 2010 was a freak year boosted by a freak score.

    • Good point Justin. Just depends on his purchase price and his role at the Hawks.

    • Just a couple of quick things I will contribute.

      1. In 2012 only 8 defenders averaged more than 83 – Deledio, Scotland, Goddard, Grimes, Waters, Carrazzo, Birchall and Heppell

      2. Scores at the WB should not be relevant at a different club due to different personnel and game styles

      3. Lake will always be inconsistent as will any other KPP

      Everyone strives to finish the year with the best 6 defenders (modified for 2013 rules lol), 6 best forwards etc etc etc in their completed teams. If people think that Lake will finish in the top 6 defenders in 2013 then they will need to get him at the start due to him being priced at 76.

  • Wont be taking the risk .. agree with Justin

  • Now with only 6 defenders onfield, it’s a big no from me! Most teams will start Goddard, Grimes and Gibbs leaving only 3 more positions to fill. There is a wealth of rookie defenders for the first time in years and I for 1 am going to take advantage of that! Not to mention Broughton represents much better value at his starting price (fan planner) in comparison, others may disagree but that’s my opinion.

  • I say no. The Hawks have the best kicks in the competition( Suckling, Birchall, Gibson, Guerra), and if anything Lake’s addition will decrease the scoring, assuming Hawthorn average the same amount of disposals next year as this year.
    E.g. Guerra averages 80 without Lake, Suckling 90, Birchall 90, Gibson 75, and maybe Schoenmakers 60. That is 395 in total from 5 players, with Gibson, Guerra, Birchall, Suckling averaging about 84 each. But if Lake comes, He will take some of the points off Guerra, Suckling, etc. as he is better than Schoenmakers. Thus, Guerra may average 75, Suckling 88, Birchall 85, Gibson 70, Lake 77. See what I mean? Great article anyway, though. Sorry if my insight is confusing.

    • So Lake replaces Schoenmakers, and the average of 84 each means on average from the four players combined.

  • Great read Stubby! Awesome research went into this article.

    As always mate, love ya work!!!

  • A no for me. He was recruited to fill a specific purpose – to lock down the monster forwards. He won’t go a wondering like he did at the Doggies. To many other great kicks and younger faster running backmen in the team for him to be involved with the switch. No need to push him forward with guns up there so you lose that sneaky goal here and there. His average will drop next season.

  • Not going to be top 6 defender and not enough cash to be made from him. PASS!

  • I can definately see the merit behind picking him but the “what ifs” and risk far outweigh the potential gain for me. pass

  • Wont be in the top 6 defenders and too expensive initially.
    No for me.

  • Atm he’s a pretty easy no for me. What’s the best case scenario for him? If everything goes to plan he may increase his average by 10-15 points which just isn’t enough to compensate for his significant downside.

    There are three big problems with him as far as I’m concerned.
    1. He’s old enough that he could just break down and miss a lot of weeks
    2. His form could deteriorate to the point where he can’t get a game in that back line
    3. He could play lock down a large percentage of the time and average 50ish

    All of these are possibilities that destroy his value. Furthermore, remember Hawthorn plays the other 7 finalists in the first 7 weeks. I think Buddy will be fine through this period, but I’m not at all convinced with Lake. Even if he does really well and ends the year as a top 6 back (unlikely) he may not increase his average much over the first 2 months.

  • He has the deeply satisfied look of a man who’s just peed in his wetsuit but not even a string of tons in pre-season will tempt me to pick the old chestnut.