Good Trade, Bad Trade: Grand Final Edition

 

Welcome to the final edition of GTBT for 2012!  If you have any trades left I say well done and hope there is carnage galore this week (or suffice amount that a trade will fix) to reward you for your patience and  discipline to hold one for the big dance. This week will be one of the few weeks where you can trade for pure luxury if all goes well at the selection table tonight. Selwood to Boyd for an extra 15 points? Well why not! like the last 3 weeks, trades this week can create a point of difference to your team if you and your opponent are too close to call. then again, it may make you lose. Live and die by the sword.

 

General Soreness, reporting for duty 

This week has always been a dangerous week where teams who are not in the finals give players an early holiday( see the saints last week) or teams who have sewn up a spot a finals spot (while all the teams are guaranteed a spot, where they finish in the top 8 is far from decided) apart from Fremantle, who as TBetta pointed out on Monday, will know what they need to do to finish where (read, 6th or 8th) None of the top 8 teams are likely to rest any guns, which is good news for Thompson and Dangerfield owners, who seem to be the first names mentioned when players are mooted for a rest.  We can thank Brisbane’s win for that. Outside of the top 8 players like Montagna, Deledio, Gibbs, Watson, Ebert and Boyd have all played every game this year and all have next to nothing to play for, so may be given a week off to play a kid who needs to prove himself to stay on the list for 2013. Personally, I think any of these players are unlikely to be given an early minute, but it is something to keep in mind.

 

Popular trades

This is the part where I analyse each position and identify popular trades for the week. At the time of writing (on a 5 hour bus trip through country WA) the top 10 trades of the week accounts for a mere 414 trades, thus not really a big enough sample group to analyse (the most popular trade accounted for 2% of all trades as well). Another factor is that by now every single person is in a different situation, so general trade advice is almost as useless as Travis Cloke and Chris Dawes in tandem. On the Twitterverse, I was asked the question by @CruttonHutton of ‘left field premiums who could go bang!’ Well what a great idea!

David Mundy – $430,500 The fuax premium from 2011 has been almost irrelevant this year, coming back slowly from injury and unable to replicate the 96 average from last year, until 2 weeks ago. Scoring a 130 and 125 against good teams in Richmond and North, Mundy is hitting form at the right time of year and could tear Melbourne a new one. Has a highest of 122 against them and projected for 111.

Liam Anthony – $449,000 – Remember this bloke? Touted as the next big thing after his debut season in 2009 where he played 10 games for an average of 96, Anthony went on to injure his shoulder (if i remember correctly) in 2010 and then slip away to DT irrelevance in 2011 with an average of 76. This year he has played 17 games and has recently found some consitency with 5 tons in his last 6 games (last week a 95). Is a proven scorer and has previously had 121 on the giants earlier this year (his highest score for the year). Have been told by a few that he may get a DPP as Mid/Def for next year. If he is, a lock for a 96 average!

Jack Riewoldt $367,300 – As almost all of the power forwards this year, Jack has been totally irrelevant for DT. Has an average of just 79 BUT  does love a sausage roll. As the tigers will miss the finals ( and disappointingly finish 10th, and not 9th) they only have two things to play for. 1 Making sure Trent Cotchin gets 3 votes in the umpires book and making sure Jack gets the Coleman. As all the other players in contention will have played on either Friday or Saturday, the tigers will know exactly how many Jack needs to wrap it up and a ‘kick it to Jack’ game plan will follow. If he kicks a bag of 10, he could be up for a monster score. Did have 116 2 weeks ago, so isnt in too bad a form). Picking him in GF week and winning the chocolates is the sort of story that will get passed on from generation to generation in families

Paul Duffield $414,400 – Thanks to his coach, The Duffman is on many coaches ‘never again’ list, as he has burnt many a coach before with role changes with his mate Broughton, and then decided to have a spell in the magoos. Unfortunately, his recent form cannot be ignored. Averaging 107 in his last 4 with a  125 last week, he is one of the form backman of DT. Expect another big game this week.

All Australian

This is quite off topic, but I thought I would share it as I think its a good bit of fun. Essentially you find a group of mates who think they know their football and you all pick your AA team. Once the team is announced, you score your team, with 2 points for a correct player in the correct line (coach and bench included), 1 point for a correct player in the wrong line, 3 points for the VC and 5 points for the picking the right C. Most points takes the bragging rights and if you throw in some money it could be a profitable little game!

 

That’s all folks

Anyway, that’s me done for the year. Hopefully I have helped in some way shape or form with my views and research in helping this DT community make a good trade. In retrospect I have probably made some good calls and some bad calls, but this isn’t an exact science and we are dealing with human beings and not exact formulas (see Carlton last Saturday) it doesn’t matter how much statistics and history suggest a certain outcome, it is no guarantee to happen (just ask Calvin). But honestly that’s what I love about the game, it’s unpredictability and it’s problem solving skills that are presented from week to week.

It has been a tumultuous year in DT and many trades were used in necessity of injuries and suspensions with varying amounts of luck with those decisions. Next year will no doubt pose a new set of problems (no expansion team for a start) and hopefully a good trading strategy can have more of an impact on a coaches performances as opposed to the high amount of variables out of our control (looking at you Ross Lyin’). Hopefully next year VS come up with some strategies to keep the masses involved for longer than the trades last and keep it nice and simple.Your feedback around this will be called upon in the next few weeks no doubt, so speak up!

I want to thank everyone for the kind words and support throughout the year which essentially kept me motivated to keep going til the end. I hope to continue next year (If Warnie and co want me to) and will try to come back bigger and better (better jokes if anything) to try and give some sort of insight to this game we all love (most of the time) . If anyone does want to have a crack at an article I encourage you to have a go, as you can see with me you don’t really need too much writing ability, just a bit of passion for DT and be willing to have a crack.

Good luck to all the coaches playing in grand finals this week whether it be for cash, bragging rights with your mates, or family supremacy as really, it is the main reason of why we do it. There is a VERY small % of people who can actually win the car, so you might as well use this game as a vehicle for socialising with your mates and meeting new people in forums who share the passion.

 

Give me follow on @jimbobholder for a chat about anything football (eagles especially) or cricket related over the summer!

37 Comments

  • Wish I had some trades left. Would love Fyfe, Mundy or Duffield this week. Think the will destroy Melbourne.

    First time being first by the way and its the last round.

    Crackin article looking forward to your help again next year.

    Currently ranked 501st – super keen to try and finish on the top 100.

  • I have been riding Giles and Cox in the ruck all season and moving Roughead into the ruck when my opposition didn’t have Giles also.

    I have 1 trade left and little cash so can only do a sideways trade, though on

    Giles > Sandilands

    or if this too risky as if Eagles loose Friday night he might get a rest ?

    • no chance they’ll rest 211, hes only coming off 2 games. he needs fitness more than rest.

  • Goodes, Robbo or Adams on the field?

    • they put the cue in the rack for robbo i believe.

      adams should score ok against Kangas but i would go with Goodesy.

      my decision resolves around Gibbo and whether he gets a gig on the field for a premo mid… only considerations are J.Selwood or priddis…prob gonna back in the premo’s.

    • Good question GK

      1. Adams – good form for a rookie
      2. Goodes – 108 last time at skilled yet not sure he can replicate this as a pure forward.
      3. Robbo – unsure if he will be back or not

  • Swap Kreuzer for Sandilands and Dempsey for Scotland ?Got Mumford as other ruck and Deledio, Goddard, Carrazzo, Enright, Suckling, Grimes (Shaw.S, Morris) as other def’s

  • Provided General Soreness Doesn’t strike this week, I am thinking of using my final trade to get rid of Jobe Watson who has been a little quiet of late and is rumoured to be carrying an injury.

    My Midfield: Swan, Ablett, Boyd, Beams, Watson and Barlow with Gibson and C.Smith on the pine.

    Also have Dangerfield, Sidebum, Martin, Goodes, Pearce, Zorko and Robo in forward line so no need to suggest any of them

    If I trade Watson I will have 511,000 and can afford anyone bar Cotchin

    Suggestions?

    At the moment I am thinking Pendles

    • Pendles will go BANG this week against Essendon – good trade. Anther option could include Thompson who loooves GC.

      Last week i did say Stevie J would go BANG and then he got a picken tag – hopefully the curse doesnt follow to Pendles

    • I doubt Robbo plays.

      I would trade him out, move Beams into your forwards and get the best mid you can afford. Beams as a midfielder is a waste.

  • Well written again, like the All Australian idea. Going to try that one. Turn it into a sculling game….

    Haven’t had any trades since the start of the finals. Had my eyes set on the car with a good 1st half of the season (wishful thinking) but i would of traded in Mundy for Scooter and passed on Beams and Pendles. That bit of uniqueness could get you over the line in the gf.
    Good luck Running Man!

    ps. Who will be your captain?

    • I think we should have a post for that All Australian game. Maybe we can rustle up some sort of a prize? Maybe a Meathead Voucher or something? Could be a bit of September DT Talk fun. Great idea Jim!

    • Cheers Cam

      Unsure on my captain – I have 4/5 of calvin’s tips and they all have pretty good cases to be picked.

      I guess you will have to see tomorrow night!

      Are you going to pick Swan as the C as I don’t have him? As you are projected to lose by 50 points I think that would be your best bet. but then again i wouldnt listen to my opposition for advice this week!

      Warnie – Post for the AA would be great!

      • Swan is locked in JimmyBob. Calvins top pick this week and every week he’s playing ;)

        50 points your way hey. Here’s hoping i get up by a point. The predictor has been so far off
        predicting my side this year i think its goin to come down to what the ‘footy gods’ have install for us.

  • Sorry off subject… but as a Carlton supporter I am ashamed today. Far more than by losing a game to GC or the 100+ point thumpings we used to cop a few years ago. Brett Ratten has been one of the best things thats ever happened to Carlton football club, both as a player and a coach. Given Carltons injuries and suspensions to key players this year it is an absolute disgrace that he has been sacked. He injected passion back into this club when we were the competition laughing stock. He is a carlton man thru and thru and loves this club. That is something Mick Malthouse will never be.
    The last time we forked out massive $ for a coach with a massive reputation but zero passion for our football club was a guy by the name of Dennis Pagan and look where that got us! So pay Malthouse his 1.2 million a year and hell why stop there bring in cloke and pay him big bucks too to kick behinds for us all year! Ashamed to be a Carlton supporter today. The way you sent out Craig Bradley after all he did for our club was a disgrace, but this is worse. Bloody oath you have blood on your hands, Stephen Kernahan!

    • Passionate stuff Dools. Not a good look for your club atm.
      Stay away from Cloke, he has to get the pill 1st before he kicks behinds.
      Glad my club(Freo) has looked at better options. Goddard will look great in purple.

      • Well said Dools – I reckon Ratts comes out of this with his head held high and won’t have any problems getting another gig somewhere else.

        • He certainly comes out with his head held high, and the way he composed himself at the media conference says everything about his love for the carlton football club and the way he has always put its interests above his own. Have never been so dissapointed in38 years a s a carlton supporter. Mick Malthouse doesn’t give a flying f#$% about carlton anymore than pagan did. I hope he crashes and burns and that ratts gets a premiership thru another club that values his passion and undying self belief and optimism! Yes you heard it right! As a carlton supporter I hope they get thumped from here on in during malthouses reign. I have lost almost all respect for my club. They are more about money than loyalty and to be honest I’m all but ready to change allegience. Disgraceful Carlton, utterly disgraceful!

      • If Cloke goes to Carlton, my guess is Goddard will move to the Pies.

        If Cloke stays, Collingwood can’t afford Goddard and Freo is a chance to get him

  • I have had my man Giles locked in all year as R2 but it really is too risky with my GF opponent having cox and Maric. Unfortunately I can’t afford Maric, however I have enough to grab sandi or jacobs and anyone in between. Who do you think is think is the best option!?

    • If you were going to grab someone, it would definitely be either Sandi or Jacobs. I’d go with Jacobs as he is projected for an 108 score.

  • Thanks for the great articles through the year. Last trade, Gibson to Dangerfield, bench Rockliffe.

  • My midfield is as follows:
    Swan, GAJ, Boyd, Pendles, Selwood, Gibson (Rockliff, Couch)
    $32,800 remaining.

    Looking at trading out Selwood and leaving Rockliff to spud it up on my bench.
    Who should I bring in out of: Thompson, Tuck, Swallow, JPK?

  • $485,200 to bring in a forward and a defender. Who to choose?
    So far am thinking of Baguely and Tippett.

    All opinions appreciated.

  • should i play treloar over robinson?

  • Well done James on a season of good articles :-)

    • I am in a very close GF and have 1 trade left with no cash in bank. I am looking at possibly trading a mid. I have Swan,Ablett,Boyd,Thompson,Selwood and Watson. Can anyone confirm if Watson is under an injury cloud??I am thinking of trading Watson for Tuck. I think Tuck at MCG could do better than injured Jobe vs Pies. Any thoughts or other options. I am playing for 1k!!!

      • Interesting call…I don’t have Watson but if I did I would be nervous cos he did look sore/proppy during the second half last week. You know that Tuck will rack em up and won’t get tagged…Good luck mate…am also playing for 1k so hope we both get the chokkies

  • Hey guys,

    Firstly another big thanks to JimBob for a season of great insights.

    I’ve got one last trade to roll the dice with this season. My dilemma:

    Pavlich to Dangerfield; or
    Franklin to Dangerfield??

    Very unsure which way to go, as both players are still recovering from recent injury and aren’t looking likely to get massive scores. Which of Pavlich and Franklin do you think will get a higher score this week?

    Thoughts?

  • anyone think petrie could be a good smokie, playing gws?