The Numbers – Round 21

With only a few weeks left until the abyss that is the offseason begins, many now find themselves eliminated from the competition; with a ranking sliding further and further each week; and cursing every single negative turn of the DT Gods (which seems to be pretty much everywhere at the moment). For those that are still kicking or loyal enough to DTT to still be reading this – we thank you for your patronage and look forward to a huge culmination to this bastard of a year for Dream Teamer Coaches.

With Round 23 in sight, let’s thrash out this weeks’ Numbers…

0 – Amount of marks taken between Collingwood’s ‘Twin Towers’ Travis Cloke and Chris Dawes on Saturday night against North. Whilst the Kangaroos’ defence has to take some credit, they must have some serious issues going on with their form lacking or non-existent going into the most important time of year. If both continue their poor run of form come finals, Collingwood will not make it to the prelims. There’s only so far Swan, Pendles and Beams can take a team.

2 – There have been many great upsets this year in the AFL, with North Melbourne and Brisbane featuring on the list several times already. However Round 21 saw these two clubs claim some huge scalps as we look towards finals footy. Whilst not in the running for the top 8, Brisbane still round enough to run down Adelaide in a fierce attempt to prove themselves against a top 2 fancied side. After being 38 points ahead at one stage, the Crows failed to fly as they were ran down and slain by the Lions. The Kangaroos on the other hand are marching towards September as they downed their third big scalp of 2012, seeing off Collingwood after previously toppling Geelong and Adelaide. If Brad Scott can keep his men focused and confident – they could very well make a big impact in the finals series and go deep into the most important month of footy for the year.

16 – Number of times that Dons’ captain fantastic Jobe Watson has tonned it up in season 2012. After a run of 5 consecutive 108+ scores, the man favoured for the Brownlow still managed to tally a solid 29 possessions as he fell just shy of another hundred with 98 points. Having his best year by DT standard by more than 15 points per game, he’s nothing if not deserving of the award. With Cotchin from the Tigers and Beams from the Pies’ also a sniff, Jobe will leave nothing in the tank as he hopes to prove himself better than the above two in his last few games against… you guessed it – the Tigers and Pies.

47 – The new record for most touches in a single game by a Bulldogs’ player in their history. This honour now sits with Ryan Griffen. At times he seemed to be finding the ball at will as if there were two balls out there – one for Griff and one for everyone else. And it wasn’t just ‘cheapies’ either – he gathered 22 contested disposals and eight clearances to be one of the best (if not the best) on ground in a team that was flogged by top-of-the-table Sydney. As with many top midfielders, this is what happens when you let them run free.

67 – % chance that assistant coach gives Dane Swan of passing him breakeven. For anyone else the number would be far lower, but for Swannie – 132 is nearly a sure-thing. With 132 and 161 against West Coast in 2 of the last 3 v the Eagles; and an avg of 118.50 at Patersons, I’m locking in the fantasy pig to bounce back strong and smash it this week. I’m sure Calvin will agree – there has never been a surer time to have the C on Swannie.

109 – There is something weird going on with this number and its connection to Freo ball-magnet Michael Barlow. Since R3, Barlow has been as consistent as any in 2012. Whilst he has a sub-100 avg, he has cracked the tonne 13 times this season, with 12 of those between 100 and 109. Whilst he hasn’t gone huge this year at all, his ability to just manage to scrape over the hundred mark is eerie – with 109 his favourite figure. He’s managed to finish on 109 points five times in 2012!

132 – True to my form in 2012, I was one who held onto my boy Bryce Gibbs a little too long this year. After averaging less than 90 up to these last few weeks, he’s exploded (finally) – averaging 132 over the past 3 weeks. Indicative of my year personally, I finally gave up and traded him out a few weeks prior to this form turnaround for… Dane Swan. Whilst the 2 weeks following this decision was proving me correct, it’s now backfired with Swannie sitting out the last 2 whilst watching Gibbs go on a spree. With Gold Coast on the cards this week, I’m expecting yet another 130+ from the on-again-off-again Blues’ midfielder this week.

167 – After starting out being a reasonable competitive match, the Bulldogs suffered yet another big loss – this time against a rampant Sydney outfit hell-bent on the minor premiership. After only being 14 points up at half time, the Swans went on a rampage in the last quarter to tally their highest score in the past 5 years of 26.11.167 and put away any doubt that they’re not a serious flag contender this year.

430 – Combined games played by soon to be announced retired Bulldogs’ pair Ryan Hargrave and Lindsay Gilbee. Both players’ careers have been remarkably aligned from start to finish – with only two games separating them and only 18 days of age. When it comes to DT output over their careers though (which is really all that matters, let’s be honest) it’s Gilbee who takes the cake with an average of 71.8 to Hargrave’s 62.6. Maybe if Hargrave didn’t let his coaches down so much this year I’d care more, but I think the Dogs’ are well placed with their youth to not miss them too much.

20,000 – Estimated number (likely more) of angry Tigers’ fans and Jon Griffin owners alike who were ropable as at the bounce of the Freo/Richmond game on Saturday when shifty Coach Ross Lyon pulled the wool out from the world’s eyes by doing a late switcheroo, with Griffin out with the mythical completely understandable ‘soreness’. With the Big 211 Aaron Sandilands coming in to make a positive impact in their 22 point win over the yellow & black, many (Hardwick included) were baffled and annoyed at yet another selection sting that from the mouth of the Richmond Coach, isn’t in the spirit of the game. At least Hawthorn had a slightly more creative answer for Buddy pulling out.

Send me your ‘Numbers’ for the week @McRathDT

Whore of the Week

While little Gary was busy against the Hawks on Sunday afternoon, another champion pumped out some big numbers of his own against the flailing Bombers team now out of the running for finals action. After a year filled with injury, high expectation and extra attention, Marc Murphy finally had the game we’ve all been waiting for. His 37 touches, 9 marks and 2 goals against Essendon gave him a game high 163 points in a team that won by 96 at the MCG. With the chance of the 8 still alive in the Blues’ players and faithful alike, this man will have a huge impact on the final resting place of Carlton in the ladder for 2012.

The Round Up

Highlights – Seeing the Blues up, about and healthy was a great sign from a biased Carlton supporter; Ablett’s 110 to half-time against the Hawks made me nervous (as I don’t have him) and settled for a lazy 175 points by the final siren; Seeing the two upsets (courtesy of the Lions & North) was great to see, with the flag still well and truly up in the air.

Lowlights – 2012 keeps going from bad to worse for Travis Cloke as he put in another bad performance to show just how far he’s fallen from last year’s heights; Mitchell and Buddy’s late withdrawals put an end to me in 2 of my leagues alone, however I can’t say it wasn’t predictable – Hawthorn and the ‘General’ are surely in cahoots as they did the same this time last year v Suns. 2013 could well see people shying away from ageing stars for this very reason – which actually makes me a bit miserable that this is what’s coming to the world.

Team McRath – 2 donuts from lack of cover, no trades and late withdrawals had me shrugging my shoulders all of Sunday as I watched my season get even farther out of reach. I am in two prelims this weekend though, so pending selections I may still actually be a chance to reach a grand final (god only knows how).

That’s it – are you playing in a prelim this weekend? Or wallowing in your Mad Monday blues? If there’s one thing that makes me happy amongst all the rubble in this year’s DT, it’s looking forward to 2013 and the potential picks that will be bursting for us to pick them. Who’ll get DPP, who’ll break out? These questions and more will be revealed as we peek into the future of AFL Dream Team for 2013 over the offseason.

On a side note, if you didn’t watch Howzat! Kerry Packer’s War last night – go do yourself a favour and go back and watch it. It was Australian Television at its best with outstanding acting performances from some great actors. Funniest moment of the night? Realising ‘Rhonda’ has finally made the step from Ads to prime time TV – #Rhonda was even trending on twitter! Gold.

Get your Twitter on and hit me up @McRathDT

 

 

46 Comments

  • First. Thanks.

    And my number for the week: 1…

    … number of wins for Peasant’s Riewoldt this week, showing that Poms can do DT too, very satisfying knocking my bomber-supporting friend out in the semis :)

    • 3 – Number of years in a row I have been burnt by Hawthorns rest policy. I would curse Clarkson if he didn’t play such a Dream Team friendly game every other time of the year.

  • Great article mate.

    Interested to know what Teams McRaths ranking is. Noticed that you said you do not have Ablett and also that you only picked up Swan after trading out Gibbs not so long ago.

    Did this strategy work, ie freeing up cash for elsewhere? Were the first two selected for me but they did take a fair bit of the salary cap up and would do it the same again.

    • hey buddy,

      Team McRath’s season was well and truly over weeks ago truth be told. Gibbs’ revival and the continued withdrawals/injuries has been costly for the team.

      I’m way down around the 10k mark now whereas I was marching toward the top few thousand only a month ago…

      I’m man enough to admit where I’ve gone wrong, and this year it has been in many areas – none the least being by ill timed and misguided trades. At the very least I’ve learnt a few important lessons that I’ll take forward to 2013 and help spur me onto improvement and (hopefully) greatness.

      cheers for reading

  • Great Article McRath.
    Looking forward to watching all the score chasing Flogs trade in Goodes this week. There are far better options and he won’t score big again this year IMO being a forward and playing against 2 quality sides to finish.

    • Ha, and here’s me thinking of trading him out to Sidebottom .

      • I’m hoping both Buddy coming in, and Robbo playing GCS will up my scoring potential this week.
        If Robbo fails this week I’ll be calling him “Broughts”.

        Cheers McRath – that stat on Barlow is funny. 109…isn’t that the robot from Robocop?

  • Love the numbers, although 2nd article in a row to have a go at freo for dishonesty… if you watch ross lyon’s post game interview he emphasises that griffin was out due to a legitimate groin complaint. I don’t see why the club would lie just to bring in an underdone sandilands for a consistent griffin.

    anyway, I’m in all my prelims, looking at robinson, m johnson, martin as my main problems… tempted to swap robbo for greene and then get fyfe? Not sure about the geelong fwd premos given they play sydney last…

    • Fyfe = great option.

      Personally, with Robbo playing against GCS this wknd I don’t see the point trading him. He won’t be made to do tagging against them.

    • I don’t think it’s just DT Talk articles that are having a go at Lyon and Fremantle. It’s all over the media.

      Sandilands named as an emergency was suss enough… I, like many others, never doubted that Sandi would play. There were tweets about him rocking up with is gear, taking part in the warm up, etc… team lists submitted and no Sandi. Ok. He continues to warm up (this is 90 minutes before the bounce) and then Griffin goes down with an injury 2 mins before they run out.

      Yeah, I’m not buying that bullshit. They can fox around this as much as they want but there is a fair chunk of the footy public that aren’t stupid.

      • To be fair – Griff was hurt, there’s proof of that apparently….

        So Griff was probably known to be hurt midweek, and Sand comes in just in case he *wink-wink* doesn’t pull up.
        I think Hardwick has it right here, but I don’t agree Freo did anything wrong.

        Every team in the AFL has done emergency stuff like this before the bounce (chapman anyone?), why should it suddenly be a bad thing just because it’s Freo doing it?
        Victorian-biased media has a lot to answer for.

        • No doubt at all… not disputing he was injured, just the way they went about it. “And in the last two minutes, he was injured… I’m more surprised than anyone”. Lyon is a wanker.

          Poor form. Disrespectful form. Dishonest form.

          • You would think Sandilands would either be right to play, or not right, if not right, he would never be emergency, if right, he would be automatically included.

            All I’m saying is there better be proof. The AFL have sent Fremantle a ‘please explain’.

        • Yeah it’s a bit dodgy and shouldn’t be happening. But Hardwick also admitted it was within the ‘laws of the game’ and you’re right Slave… Freo aren’t the only one who’s done this – its been happening all year.

          Not much we can do about it is there…

      • The way i see it is that match committee went with griffin over sandilands based on his good form and sandi’s physical state and named sandi emergency because he was close to a return, and in case of an injury ie normal reasons for being an emergency. Probably naive of me, i am obviously biased but it’s still a possibility.

        If griffin was injured before the swap then i agree that it was poor form and shouldn’t happen. If he was injured at the time he was said to be then there’s nothing wrong with what happened. So comes down to how honest freo were, which we won’t know until the afl makes its investigation findings public. And yeah warnie, i intended to direct it at the media as a whole rather than just these articles… thanks for the discussion though, you’ve made my day!

        • Unfortunately, I don’t think we’ll ever know the truth. All their investigation will be is hearing from the club and officials. Nothing will come of it.

          Oh well… I will continue to be bitter with no Griffin in my SuperCoach team.

          • LOL I know the truth. They were always playing Sandi, waited till the last possible minute to name him to keep the Tiges guessing, and covered their tracks because they knew there would be a stink. Ross Lyon calling for evidence was the final kick in the guts, there is no evidence you made sure of that mate. Yeah lie all you want, but don’t think we’re stupid and insult our intelligence. “I was planning to bring him back through the 2’s”, yeah sure.

            Same as Mitchell, Nick Maxwell clearly knew he wouldn’t be playing on Friday afternoon, given by the set-up of Maxy’s Machine for last weekend (as I’ve been led to believe by comments on this site anyway). Then the whole Bring a Buddy shambles trying to get more people through the gates was pretty disgraceful to.

            Don’t worry Maxy, I’ve got you in the semi in one of my league’s, karma is coming for you.

  • Any chance you guys could help me out?

    I have two trades left, and a game I’m gonna need a fair bit of luck to win, as the guy I’m playing has been getting scores 2400-2500+ the last three weeks.

    Backline is full of guns, apart from Lake – Shaw & Ellis on the pine.
    Midfield is all guns, the weak link is Priddis.
    Forwards have been a problem all year with injury etc.;
    Buds, Zorro, Stevie J, Fyfe, Sidebum, Beams & Robbo – Martin as cover for mids & fwds.

    So far I’m thinking of trading Priddis for Swan.
    Any other trades should I be looking at to increase my scores?
    …or should I leave one trade in case I see the GF?

    • If I was in your situation, i would go Priddis > Swan this week, then cross your fingers and hope you make the GF next week, where you can bring in Hanley for Lake, provided you have the money. Remember, if you trade in Swan this week, you are really trading in 2 Swans (Of course you’ll make him Captain.) That being said, there’s no point going out with trades in your pocket. If you are certain to lose, then do what I suggested above and cross your fingers. It’s your only option.

    • Sounds like you need to take a bit of a risk to win this week. In your shoes I reckon I would trade Priddis for one of three carlton mids: Murph, Simpson or Gibbs. Showing ominous form now that they have their full team back on the park and I feel sorry for what they are about to do to the Suns. Gibbs is back in the mids, and Simpson scores well with Judd and Murph in the side.

      This would obviously save you a bucketload of cash over getting in Swan, which you could then use to upgrade Lake to just about any premium defender. Scotland or Grimes would be my pick if you don’t have them already.

  • Chris Dawes = 4 Marks
    Trav Cloke = 2 Marks

    • Yep, slight oversight there – but they were pathetic, regardless.

    • Woudn’t be surprised if the Pies go for a fast leading forwards type set up. Not going to win it bombing to Cloke/Dawes. With the supply Beams and co. could give..is Dunstall available?

  • Been Religously reading your articles all year mcrath and the rest of the DTT crew thanks heaps for all your efforts!!

    5- points difference between J and S Selwood!!
    Joel having a terribly inconsistent year has me in a dilemma this week because I can’t afford another 60 odd.
    I have 2 trades left and by getting rid of old mac for b.lee then I can trade in the pig Swan for Jelwood. Leaves me good cover with gibbo on the pine as well as lee in the mids and good cover everywhere else.
    Wondering if it’s worth it or if I should hold my trades??

    • Depends on where you’re at this week. How strong is your opponent? As this week is do or die, I’d err on the face of using trades to help make sure of a win. As has been pointed out by many before, there’s no point going out the back door with trades in your pocket…

      If you truly think Jelwood is your weakest link than go for it if you can’t strenthen another area. I’m tipping swannie for 160 this week though, so I’d probably do it if you have the trades.

      • The league I really want to win my match up for this week pumped out 2360 while I was closer to 2250 in my week off(although I didn’t care so I put beams as captain which won’t happen this week). It’s going to be tight either way do I spose I will pencil it in for now and sus teams Thursday night.
        It’s really either jelwood or Sam Mitchell but after his rest I’m hoping he will smash a couple of big ones.

        Thanks again for all your help this season. In only my second year dream teaming I have gone up about 100,000 places with all your guys advice and insight.

        • Check out the history of last time Mitchell and Jelwood played those teams they face in the next 2 weeks… I think Jelwood might have the edge but Mitchell is better on form…

          tough call

          • Yea I will be sure to do just that. Although I’m a hawks supporter so sammy will probably get the nod anyway haha

  • Chappy or Goodes???

    • Hazza, I kind of feel like there’s no point answering you because you’re just going to post a similar question 10 comments later or on the next article. Seriously, post once, listen to the advice, and then go and make up your own mind.

  • Good article McRath.. it has indeed been a horrible year for DT and perhaps unsurprising that so many coaches have tuned out.

    Any advice appreciated…

    I’ve made 4 prelims, have 1 trade left and am debating whether to hold it for the GF or give myself a slight edge on my opponents. Most of my upcoming matches are pretty close, but winnable. Is it worth using that last trade to bring in someone like Beams for a Robbo, Zorko or Goodes? Not having Beams has nearly cost me several matches this year, but is an upside of around 20-40 points really enough to warrant the trade?

    I have reasonable cover but I’d hate to find myself exposed in the GF without a trade once again, the story of my last two seasons. But then again, I’ve never been out of the finals with a trade in hand… which is worse and who would you recommend to trade out?

    • I reckon Beams is a must have. Never has a bad game – the absolute worst you’ll get from him is something in the 90s. Compare that with Robbo who has failed to crack 50 the last two weeks and I reckon it’s an easy choice, especially if your games this week look like they might be close. If you’ve got easy wins coming up then consider holding (and finding some tougher leagues for next year!).

  • What are people’s main strategies for next year?

    • At this stage, to score more points that the opposition.

      (Yes, I am an idiot… but it’s been a looonnngggg season. Preseason will start for me in October! I want to enjoy some footy without DT thoughts).

      • Warnie, DT makes footy more interesting as well…

        except if your like me and dont have Swan and see him chop up each week…

    • For me ATM:

      1. Loading up with guns in the mids and taking risks in the DEF and FWD lines.

      2. Most of my premiums are to be proven performers. For instance I started with Rocky this year. he was still a young bloke who had averaged over 100 only once. Looking back now there was always a chance things may go a bit wrong. This is why i’d rather start with Pendles than Beamer next year. However I will start with Cotch and Watson who have only averaged over 100+ once (this year). No disrespect to Rocky but these two are better players.

      So next year I pick the ones that have scored consistently well in the past 2-3 seasons e.g Goddard, Birchall, Swan, Ablett, Pendles. Hopefully this will eliminate picking ‘dud premiums’. Sick and tired of having Rocky and Jelwood. Might have to fork out a few more dollars but its worth the consistency and peace of mind u get.

      BTW I have already made a preliminary side (yes I’m very keen on next year) It consists of a 3-5-1-3 premium structure. So 12 premiums and 7 players above 150k. The rest rookies.

  • whats peoples thoughts on Robbo…? will he come back this week against GC?

  • 4 – Number of consecutive games where Gibson has outscored both Pendles and Thommo.

    I have all 3 in my side and am in two minds. Play the proven guns or play the rook in red hot form with an average of 120 in his past 4. Thompson has the worst form with an average of just 90 in his last 4 but plays Melbourne while Pendles has an average 100 during time. So:

    Gibson v Freo @ Etihad
    Pendles v WCE @ Paterson’s
    Thommo v MEL @MCG

    • gotta go pendles & thommo, unless of course the general shows up and makes the decision for you…

    • With Gibson I’m getting to the point where I’d certainly consider playing him over the likes of Rockliff and Priddis, even Hayes and Barlow. But not Pendles or Thompson.

  • Great work McRath – will miss the numbers over summer!

    Buddy to Stevie J, Priddis to ROK – good trade, bad trade?

    • My concern is that they could be two trades that cost you, rather than make you points.

      At least see if Franklin is named this week. I strongly doubt they would name and then not play him after all the controversy that surrounded him this weekend.

      I am strongly considering going Priddis>Murphy but I am scared that it will be one of those trades that cost you, because Priddis’ ceiling is certainly higher than Murphy’s basement. Priddis against the Pies compared to Murphy against the Suns makes it attractive – but still…

      If Franklin plays this weekend, I think you’d be silly to trade him out.