Calvin’s Captains – Rd. 19

Now, you know I am not one to brag… but just glance over my top 5 from last week before we roll on here…

Dane Swan – 159
Dayne Beams – 113
Gary Ablett – 152
Scot Pendlebury – 114
Matthew Boyd – 94

Premiums Vs Mega Premiums

Ok… just quickly, everyone always says to me – “What about Pavlich as captain? Or what about Cotchin or Zorko?” The list goes on and on. But what I want to point out to you here is this, as good as these players are and yes they are guns… let’s look at what Cotchin does, for example, compared to the mega premium players we have such as Ablett and Swan. You’ll see his numbers just don’t match these guys. Yeah, he’s young and is still a jet, but in DT you don’t get extra points for that.

Scores 120+ in 2012 … Swan 53%, Ablett 53%, Cotchin 25%
Scores 140+ in 2012 … Swan 40%, Ablett 40%, Cotchin 6%
Score under 100+… Swan 7%, Ablett 13%, Cotchin 31%

Freaky actually how similar Swan and Ablett’s numbers are, certainly surprised me. But I think you get my point, these guys just can’t match the mega premos so let’s move on and look at some of the BIG options for this week.

In a Word…

Dayne Beams – has scored 147 & 137 in his last 2 at the MCG averaging 132 in his last 3 this year. The kid is firing and had 113 and 75 on the Saints last year.
Scott Pendlebury – previous scores of 142 and 117 at the MCG in his last 2 and is averaging 124 in his last 3 this year. Had 107 and 129 on the Saints last year avoiding the CJT both times.
Matthew Boyd – form has been poor with 94 and 82 in his last 2 games this year but will be way better this week. He has already had 162 on the Roos this year and should go BANG!
Jobe Watson – Hasn’t played the Crows since 2010 and only averages 78 on them in his last 3 but they are old numbers. Over at AAMI this week, where he had 124 on the Power earlier this year.

Running Hot

After previous scores of 152 (42d), 143 and 128 it’s very safe to say that Gary Ablett is on fire averaging 141 in his last 3 this year. He has only played at the MCG once this year and if you remember… it was against Collingwood and he had a massive 190pts. This week he meets the Demons, a team who held him to just 96 last year thanks to a hard tag from Bartram. Melbourne will either use Magner, Bail or most likely McKenzie on him this week who held Wells (79) last week as Swallow (160), Gibson (133) and Harvey (110) ran a muck. This isn’t worrying me one bit this week and I’m expecting something big from the little master again.

The hottest player in the competition right now is Dane Swan who has averaged 147 in his last 3 games this year with 159 and 165 as my #1 pick in the last 2 weeks. He plays the Saints at the MCG this week where he has a low of 105 there in his last 6. Last year when he played St Kilda he had scores of 137 and 83… and prior to that he has had scores of 141, 138 and 112. Umm, wait a minute – 83? I can tell you that day he had just 19d and was tagged by Dempster. This was when Swanny was going through a horror patch and subsequently was shipped off to Arizona the following week. Now, he’s obviously not playing like that anymore! The 137 he had last year was with the tag of Clinton Jones and although he may go to Swan again… he may run with one of the other guns like Pendles, Beams, Steele or even Daisy Thomas who he actually did run with in the game Swan had Dempster. Either way, he’s had 159 and 165 in his last 2 games for me as my #1 and I will not turn my back on him this week at the MCG!

Who will you give 'gold' to this week in your team for Rd. 19?

  • Dane Swan (53%, 904 Votes)
  • Gary Ablett (37%, 627 Votes)
  • Matthew Boyd (3%, 53 Votes)
  • Scott Pendlebury (3%, 43 Votes)
  • Dayne Beams (1%, 24 Votes)
  • Jobe Watson (2%, 29 Votes)
  • Someone else (2%, 30 Votes)

Total Voters: 1,710

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33 Comments

  • Good read as always Calvin. Nice work.

  • its interesting to see how few teams actually start with Swanny in their mids …
    class above everyone else (except Gaj)

    • Always made room for the pig in my starting line up.

      Absolutely vital if you take this game seriously.

    • I started with Swan, Pendles & Ablett – held on to each through their respective injuries… enjoying the fruits of my labour.

  • Need a big one from Gazza this week !!

  • Swanny is a perma lock from here on in with Ablett VC

  • Swan averages 152 during day games and 113 for night games this season.

    • nice stat! thats quite interesting

      • Thanks Calvin.

        Off. Topic who is a better option waters or scotland ? .
        Cheers

        • Stuck on that one myself mate. Trying to decide which one to make my last defensive upgrade as well.

          More than likely Waters, although there is that injury risk bs. Tough call.

          • I have both in my team but if i had to choose i think i would lean more to Scotland then Waters both are good players and good scoring ability

            But Waters and the eagles run home has
            Collinwood
            Hawks
            Geelong
            along with freo and port

            where Scotland and the blues run home is
            Sydney
            Brisbane
            Bombers
            Saints
            Gold Coast

            it just looks like there is more scoring potential coming from Scotland
            but thats just in my opinion

          • Yeah, got them both.

            Both players get their points from being fairly loose.
            But a lot of teams have been putting a loose tag on either Waters or Hurn to try and limit their drive from the backline, as every time WCE go forward, it usually starts with either of them or Schofield.
            Waters is *the* link in the backline, they kick it to him whenever they can.
            Was at the WCE-BRIS game on the wknd, and I think I only saw Beau handball maybe twice, otherwise all kicks.
            Scotland kicks a lot too, but Scotland doesn’t take courageous marks like Waters does……

            So anyway, between the two, get both – if you can’t, Scotland may have better potential, but given WCE have all their drive from the backs, you can expect Waters to get good scores from those hard games too.

    • Yep, saw that on FF. Awesome stat!

  • Great work Calvin. Quality top 5 list.

    Have a perfect 5/5 from that list in my side. Can’t go past Swan but. Swan is boss.

  • Should i go…
    Morris – Baguley
    or
    Shaw – Baguley

    If i go morris then i have enough cash to go M.clarke to Enright, H,shaw or suckling and have 34,000 left over but If go shaw i can’t really afford anyone. Morris has got great JS Shaw not so much. Thoughts?

    • Go morris, shaw actually has pretty good JS, however he has been injured the last two weeks. and before he strung a few games together he was also injured

    • why wouldnt you go Tom Bell? Baguley has already risen.

  • Ablett: 53% + 40% + 13% = 106%…..

  • Looks Like Chris Scott was right and Buddy will Line up on Friday night.

    http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/143295/default.aspx

    He still has to pass a fitness test but all in all he should line up.

    • I’d be checking the final teams at 6:20 Fri night if he gets named on Thursday.

      Lucky that SJ and Buddy both play on the Friday night. Thought i was going to have to name two emergencies in the same position for the first time.

      • ahahaha mate same. Got Both. Need Franklin to play so i can sneak a top 4 finish, would be good.

    • I’m not counting on Buddy this week. I think the Hawks are very unlikely to risk him this week. They have a premiership to win & have been travelling just fine in his absence.

  • those with Cox, perth news just said he hasnt trained this week but should still be named, whether he’ll be a late withdrawl is unknown though

    • Yes we know what the West Coast Doctors are like – Beau Waters anyone???

      • WCE can’t drop a game.
        If he can run, he’ll be perma-forward for the game.
        I’d expect they play him mainly forward to give his ankle a bit less stress.
        ….and let NicNat destroy those Dockers!

    • coxxy’s that good he doesn’t need to train

  • great write up calvin
    cant go past swanny

    im stuck in a interesting situation
    i have buddy on the bench and not sure who to take off for him my original thinking was zorko or porps but both are playing some gd footy and scoring well
    the only other idea i have is to bring buddy on for nick riewoldt since he is playing the pies

    whats everyones thoughts

  • Well GC are playing melbourne this week, one of the most generous dt sides.
    Ablett for me, he is going to get 40 possesions in the wide spaces at the G. GC will be looking for a win as well so ‘kick it to gary’ mode will be well and truly in gear. He could end up with a few goals and a DT score upwards of 150 quite easily imo

    • Agree, Gazza has been in great form in recent weeks, looked like getting near 200 last week until he slowed after halftime. I’ve has Swanny capt the last 8 weeks, but now i’m going Gazza over Swanny. Gazza’s gonna’ go huge this week!