The Numbers – Round 18

A huge edition of the Numbers this week after a massive week of footy. There were some massive individual player (and team) scores as the par score soared through the roof. Low breakevens, huge winning margins and a few numbers that some supporters would rather forget… this week was one that gave stat-loving coaches like me a lot to wrap our heads around.

Thus I bring you thy Round 18 Numbers…

1 – Points that Stevie J managed on the scoresheet as he was subbed out midway through the first half after copping a knock at the opening bounce. The whilst was blown after around 5 seconds as Adelaide midfielder Scott Thompson collided with Johnson’s head and was subsequently taken off with the blood rule. In circumstances similar to that of Andrew Carrazzo in R4, he received a solitary point for his free kick for (which he couldn’t take). Discuss your thoughts on the matter in the comments below.

2 – We have all heard about the ‘ruck curse’ of 2012. In R18 it struck another 2 victims with David Hale and Sam Jacobs the most recent to go down. With high scoring options Maric, Roughead, Minson (all 16) joining Jacobs and Hale – only two remain having played every game of 2012 – Dean Cox and Cats ruckman Trent West. With Cox the only viable DT option – he could be the only one to play out the year with 22 games (unless he’s rested prior to finals). Compare this is 2011 where 3 players played every game (Cox, Ryder & Leuey), with another 3 playing all but one – 2012 is actually playing out similarly to 2011, with only 6-7 players likely to play 21-22 games this year. So it seems this curse is nothing new afterall…

3 – MBR rounds confirmed for season 2013. With all the talk about the possibility of 2 multi-bye rounds next year to give the players an extra rest, the AFLPA-led charge was promising. Whilst being an absolute hell to negotiate – it may well have eased the high level of injuries that we’ve come to experience in 2012. However it has now been decided by the AFL that for 2013 at least – things will remain the same. For good or for worse, at the very least we’ll know better as we’ve already lived through it this year.

5 – Teams that are battling it out for the final 2 spots in the top 8 for finals in 2012. Whilst Essendon is sitting with Geelong of 44 points, their recent form shows that they may be susceptible to a fall down the ladder unless they arrest their form and get back on track. With North, Freo, St Kilda and Carlton all hungry for September footy, it’ll make for an exciting final month of AFL – with each game potentially season ending for those footy clubs. Of those, you’d have to say Essendon and North should sow them up. However the hunger to play finals again after all featuring in 2011 should be enough for them to keep looking over their shoulders as Freo, the Saints and Blues look for a strong finish to the year.

11 – Games that Freo young gun Nat Fyfe has missed through injury. Being out since R5, no one was putting any pressure on him to perform straight away. But ala Pendlebury when he returned, a true star doesn’t need time to click back into gear. 26 disposals and 90 DT points on his return shows that this kid is going to be a star for many years to come.

15 – Lead changes in the Carlton v Richmond game on Saturday night. In a tense and highly contested match, Richmond led by 2 points up until the final minute – when Carlton kicked a lucky goal to pinch victory from the Tigers’ claws yet again.

42 – Seconds remaining on the clock when born-again Carlton midfielder Brock McLean kicked long to the goal square from outside 50 in their clash against Richmond at the weekend. Admitting himself after the game that he wasn’t even trying for goal, the ball fortuitously sailed over the head of Blues’ rookie Levi Casboult and bounced through for the winning goal. The Navy Blues then held on in the dying seconds to hand themselves a much-needed win that keeps them in the race for September action. As a Blues’ supporter my heart was racing that whole last quarter; and when Brock kicked that final goal I believe I woke up any sleeping neighbours with my screams of joy. It was an emotion-charged moment for footy to say the least. I do feel bad for the yellow and black supporters though – and urge you all to stay positive. For I concede that in a year (maybe two) your midfield will be unstoppable with the likes of Cotchin, Lids and Martin running around.

114 – Average points scored over the past 5 weeks by previously mentioned Richmond star Trent Cotchin. With 5 consecutive DT tonnes and several Brownlow votes surely in the bank, he is having an amazing year. If he keeps this up, he may just be one of the first picked in my midfield for 2013.

125 – It’d been a long time coming after a 3-Round average of 55, but Travis Cloke kicked true against the Giants to record a 6 goal, 21 touch, 125 point DT performance. Pies’ fans will be hoping that Trav is back as they look to make an assault on the finals.

133 – With many premiums out of action this week, there were a few rookies that stepped up in R18 – Treloar (121), Giles (118) and Greene (101) came through for their desperate owners. But one man came to the party in a whole different way. Well-known ball-magnet and North Rookie Sam Gibson has been solid without being spectacular since his debut mid-year. But this week he finally broke out. His 36 disposal, 8 mark, 133 point game was a diamond on the field for those who were lucky enough (or smart enough perhaps) to have him playing. If not, you would’ve been pissed (like me) with a huge 133 sitting on your bench. He started strongly and kept on going – a fantastic effort from the mature midfielder (nearly WotW material may I say).

Twatter – Your Numbers

 

 

 

 

With losses of 2, 4 and 4 points the past 3 weeks, Tigers’ coach Dimma Hardwick confessed that there is something wrong that needs to be addressed in his the team’s mentality that has caused such losses so close together. Sadly Richmond’s hopes of playing finals this year are now gone, however there is plenty more to lose if they choose to give up with 5 rounds to go.

 

 

 

 

Just wanted to put this one out there – with the DT world going nuts for the Essendon ball-magnet after some huge early-season scores, Stanton’s output appears to have tapered since the MBR’s. With scores of 74, 85, 84 and 62 in his last four – his owners must surely be disappointed at his performances of late. I’m personally predicting a late-season surge as he did last year so for those coaches with the prolific midfielder, sit tight and be patient.

Send me your ‘Numbers’ for the week @McRathDT

The Saints are Coming

Similar to Cloke against the Giants, St Kilda dominated proceedings against the Dogs at the weekend. Coming into R18 with a 3-Round average of 88 (Hayes), 74 (Goddard) and 90 (Montagna) – the Saints midfielders had a field day with their respective scores finishing at 130, 120 and 124. Throw in Riewoldt’s 133 point, 4 goal performance and it seems the boys in red, white and black are keen on a spot in the 8 as they battle the Pies, Dees, Cats, Giants and Blues for a spot in September.

The Benchmark

With some huge scores coming this round, there’re a lot of coaches up and about. Whilst I’m not one of them this week, I am staring at the top ranked teams for the week in awe as there were 19 teams who broke the 2600 mark, as well as 753 who made 2500! Neeshams Killinit coach Gerard was the man to top the list with a massive 2668. His all-star backline of Lids, Scotland, Goddard, Waters, Birch, Enright and Carrazzo was bettered by his huge midfield – all of who scored 109+ (Swan, Ablett, Mitchell, Swallow, Pendles and Gibson). Cox and Giles (118) played well in the rucks, whilst a Sidebottom-less side was well served by Beams, Danger, Pav, Chappy, Cloke, Treloar and Zorko. With many copping donuts all over – this was a big week to move up the rankings if you were lucky to escape the carnage.

Crusty Donuts

Late withdrawals, soft-tissue injuries and plain omissions just continue to annoy at the pointy end of the season. With most coaches holding Robinson, Sidebottom, Jacobs, and Buddy – some were faced with 2 or even 3 zero’s with some rookie’s letting down their coaches when they were needed most. In the MBR’s donuts were expected and thus, accepted. However to cop several at this point – is just plan bull$#t.

Whore of the Week

With Swannie gaining another WotW gong last week; it’s only fair to let in another player to the dual-nominated club. Whilst tempted to go with Swannie himself, Gary Ablett or even rookie Sam Gibson; I’d instead like to turn my attention to another North midfielder who had an absolute field day at the weekend to absolutely dominate Melbourne’s engine room. North Captain Andrew Swallow gathered 32 touches and an inspirational 17 tackles on his way to the highest score of the round, 160 points. Throw in a goal and 3 marks, Swallow thoroughly deserves it this week as he looks to right the ship that is his inconsistent season and steer his team towards September action.

The Round Up

Highlights – Seeing Goddard bounce back was awesome (and well overdue) – especially in his 200th match; Swan, Pendles and Beams continue to delight with some big (and not unexpected) scores against lowly GWS; Cox and Giles tonne-ing up whilst other rucks failed (or failed to show up **cough… Jacobs); and it was a great feeling seeing North’s Sam Gibson finally stepping up on the AFL stage in what is an excellent story of patience and hard work. Also – as I expected, Cloke dominated the Giants and is back in black (and white).

Lowlights – Jacobs’ withdrawal was a huge coup’ for Geelong’s chances at the weekend; and my chances of a decent DT score too; Marty Clarke’s inclusion was bittersweet as he donned the green vest yet again, however didn’t waste any time scoring 62 points in less than a half; Goodes’ has been average since his 137 a few weeks ago – only managing 75 this week; the only main thing to savage the round was injuries – Stevie J’s one minute outing angered Cat’s fans and DT owners alike; as well as generally underperforming premiums in Birchall (63) and Rockliff (73).

Team McRath– After a few good weeks I’ve been put in my place with a earth-shuttering (prepared to be shocked) 1971… It’s pretty much ended any chance of me having a respectable season ranking; as well as undoing my hard work over the last month. To be honest I feel about like the Tigers right now. Not much more I can say really.

As we near the end of our 2012 competition for AFL Dream Team, I’d like to take a second to innocently (and perhaps naively) look forward to 2013 – a land where donuts are scarce, injuries to important players are unheard of and coaches don’t play mind games with team selection. 2013 will be a year of amazing heights and colourful rainbows made of huge numbers – a dream that will actually help me sleep at night instead of having nightmares of my entire midfield being withdrawn late. Of this positive pipedream we can only pray that it comes to fruition. Until then, keep on battling San Diego i.e. Dream Teamers.

Get your Twitter on and hit me up @McRathDT

29 Comments

  • Nice numbers again McRath – except any of those numbers about the Tigers. Grrrrrrrr.

  • 3 teams in my main league scored over 2500. I wasn’t one of them..

  • 1 – Number of donuts thanks to Couch

  • 0 – the result i for for side trading ryder to jacobs… i could have saved a trade and kept ryder… FMDT

  • “Stanton’s output appears to have tapered since the MBR’s….”

    I was watching On The Couch last night and they seemed to elude the reasons as to why Stanton’s form slump was due to the Bombers soft tissue injuries. With so many of Essendon’s best 22 being out other teams are simply tagging Stanton instead of having a choice of regulars to match up on.

    Also I pulled these stats from this article http://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/why-are-the-bombers-bombing-so-badly/story-fndv7pj3-1226438977577 to show what effect all these injuries are doing to The Dons in general…

    Several of Essendon’s key indicators have dropped markedly since Round 9

    R1-9 R10-18

    Effective Kicks No.1 (156 a game) No.14 (132)
    Marks No.2 (101) No.7 (93)
    Marks I50 No.2 (14) No.9 (12)
    Inside 50s No.1 (58) No.6 (56)
    Scores per I50 No.2 (53.6%) No.14 (46.3%)
    Contested Poss Diff No.3 (+9) No.12 (-3)
    Points For No.2 (111) No.11 (91)
    Points Agst No.5 (79) No.15 (102)

  • 118 – The amount of points I gained from having a RUC-FWD DPP. Being able to move Roughy into the FWD line and then playing Giles not only saved me from a donut but put me ahead of the people that have already traded Giles. He is a very very handy R3.

    Also a shout out to Treloar who came off my bench to score 121. However, I will probably require him again this week and am expecting a sub 50 score. 3 good scores in a row just isnt part of his game.

  • stanton is killing me with shocking scores! cant belive i traded him in for ablett instead of swan. trade to swan ( just enough cash) is very tempting.. does anyone else think he will come good though?

    • Do it if you can, even if he does come good, he’s still not good enough to fluff for swan.

  • Great article as always Rath

  • cats will name stevie j… but will wait til last minute… could be a late replacement happening friday…

    http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/143129/default.aspx

  • 6 – the number of possible donuts i will be facing this week. With the likes of stanton, stevie j, robbo, sidey, jacobs and buddy all maybe’s…. FMDT

    • Robbo stated on twitter he will be back this week, and Sidey should too

  • 12 – the number of comments made so far given the length of time the post has been up!

    Looks like the love of all things Dream Team is waning a bit!

    • Sorry McRath – should point out that it’s a great article on a slow news day!

    • I was just about to make the same observation. I guess all the kids have run out of trades and/or now realise they won’t make their league finals.

      Always a good read mate. Interesting to note that Swallow top scored for the week. If North carry this form into next year, and based on his own natural progression, he could well be on his way to super-premo status next year. Will definitely consider for my starting team.

    • Agree Big Feller – very few comments so far. I think people seriously disengage when it gets tough…. typical bloody Aussies!!! ( I am one lol )

    • I think it has more to do with the Olympics….everyone asleep in their cubicle farms by day so they can watch Olympics all night

    • Its because most people have few, if any trades left, and are sitting on their hands so don’t need to pester everyone with the ‘should I buy x or y’ posts…

  • I find it really interesting reading everyones ideas on how DT show work next year and the changes they should make. Im sorry but have I missed something here, did the guy (girl) who is leading now or the eventual DT winner play with a different set of rules to me? This game is 70% homework 30% luck, and to change the rules just so we get less donuts is plain and simply weak and unchallenging. Its already getting easier with all the forums and posting of teams before the season proper. So heres to not changing the rules geting better at playing and not wanting it easier.

    • +1…..couldn’t agree more mate. Needs to be some things that make us think a bit differently.

    • I think you have missed the point a little. As a serious DTer I agree with your sentiments. I have learned so much this year that I am hoping there are no changes next season to put my theories into action.

      But, and it is very big but, the importance of DT is having numbers playing the game. A large % of the teams entered every year is from the casual DTer. DT needs to turn these casual players into serious players and then attract more casual players, if that makes sense. DT needs to evolve with the times.

      Unfortunately, a lot of people that I have spoken to have said they wont be playing DT next season due to it becoming too hard over the MBR’s. One of the guys at my work has actually made 4 trades since round 11 because he just didn’t care…. This is what VS needs to address. There needs to be some new innovation for the MBR’s to keep this from happening.

      I don’t know the answer. I have many ideas about what might and should happen ranging from wildcard periods during the MBR’s, to less players being on the ground to extending benches. The one thing I don’t want to see is increased trades. 24 trades is plenty. If everyone goes over every trade they have used during the season there will be quite a few wasted ones there.

      Only time will tell what will happen.

  • Cheers all for reading/commenting – Olympics + Waning interest = lower numbers. Happens every year – but the likes of Griff, tBetta and I will try and keep on pumping the weeklys out for the tragics out there.

    Until next week

  • Trade out Rocky for A.Swallow?

    • No way. You wouldn’t be a true DT’er to be able to burn a trade like that unless you’re desperate?

    • That could be one of the worst trades I have seen proposed…. I am not even sure if it is sideways, maybe a little backwards.

      I know Rocky has been slightly disappointing but you need to stick with him now epsecially with their last 5 games.

  • 31 – the amount of years I have been saying “Next year!” as a Tigers supporter

    41 – the number that Nathan Foley wears. Only us Tiger supporters seem to be aware of the importance Axel has to the club

    30 – the number our number 1 trade priority is at his current club (sorry Redvest…)

    Great stuff as always mate.