The Numbers – Round 18

McRath is back to your computer screens with the R17 Numbers of the 2012 AFL DT Season. This week gave us some huge numbers to get our heads around, despite being a reasonably standard round in terms of overall scoring. With the more casual DTers starting to lose interest for the year as their trades run thin, the numbers appear to be getting lower and lower in terms of views on DTT site. However for you tragics out there – we’ll be here all year.

Now, let’s dive into the wormhole that is The Numbers and see what comes out.

3 – Score of the GWS Giants up until half time in their demolition at the hands of Fremantle on Sunday. Freo’s defence was too hard to penetrate for the first 2 quarters until they finally let up in the second half – with 5.4 scored in the next two. It’s been said a fair bit recently – the young ones have finally cracked and they’re leaking points like a Travis Cloke is losing value.

10 – In what has been a huge year of blooding youngsters at the Giants, R17 saw an even ten changes to last week’s side. With the rotation rollercoaster now in full swing, it must be quite difficult for some youngsters to gel with their teammates – especially when almost half the team is different from one week to the next. With a big game against Collingwood on the cards, we can expect some big ins to the GWS brigade for R18 – maybe not 10 though.

12 – Difference in DT points scored between Hawthorn (1620) and Collingwood (1608) on Saturday afternoon. Astoundingly, Hawthorn ended up winning the contest by 47 points yet only managed to garner 12 more overall points than the Pies. Interesting, Collingwood gathered more touches (387-384), Marks (91-88) and Tackles (65-56) than the Hawks. However the scoring power of the Gold and Brown was too much – with their score of 21.12.138 drowning out the fantastic DT feats of several Pies’ midfielders.

15 – Games played in 2012 to date by injury-prone Melbourne Demon, Jack Grimes. With a shaky start to the year (including 3 consecutive 60’s), I was one to quickly ride him off. However after spending more time in the midfield in 2012 (more due to necessity perhaps than anything else), Grimes has paid back his owners in spades – with an avg of over 89 and a season-high 135 coming on the weekend. At just over $400k, he may just be the point of difference your team needs to get your over the line.

34 – Matthew Pavlich has been a very busy man lately. In fact, over the past 7 weeks he’s scored at least 3 goals in each outing to total an outstanding 34 sausage rolls. He’s also averaging a cool 109 DT points during this period – what a champ!

56 – Total team changes for all clubs since last round. With 10 alone coming from GWS, Carlton (6), Adelaide, Bulldogs (5) and Richmond (4) were also forced into making sweeping changes. One of the few positives for DT coaches is that with all these changes, rookies like McInnes (CAR), Murdoch and Smedts (GEE) are seeing more time on the ground. With all of the carnage caused by injury, these guys are welcome sights to see named in their clubs’ 22 come Thursday night.

100 – Coming into Round 17, Jeffy Garlett was in the headlines for the wrong reasons – fighting to stay in the team due to poor recent form. Lucky not to be dropped; and most likely due to Carlton’s recent lack of available players to call upon, Garlett retained his place for the important game against the Dogs. 20 touches, 2.1 goals and 7  marks later and he has his first 100 for the year. A timely performance for the fleet-footed goalsneak, Coach Ratten will be hoping Jeffy can build from this performance and end the year in great touch. Carlton’s finals chances may just hinge on it.

200 – The magic 200 barrier has not been breached since Geelong scored 233 points on Melbourne in R19 last year. But I’m predicting an explosion of goals at Skoda on Saturday. With Cloke in bad form, this is the perfect chance to get him back in touch before September rolls around – unless of course Bucks is planning a resting party?

222 – Behinds scored in the AFL this week. Now, this may not seem relevant – however considering there were only 10 more goals scored for the round (232), R17 was a bad round for goal kicking. Gold Coast (5.18), St Kilda (10.16) and Fremantle (18.24) were some of the worst culprits. Lucky for Freo it didn’t matter, but for the Suns – a few more straight kicks and they would’ve had the 4 points. Compare this round to R16 and it’s plain to see – collectively, last round saw 241 goals scored and only 176 behinds! Safe to say goal-kicking will be on the training schedule for this week.

454 – Total number of DT points scored between Magpie superstars Swan, Pendlebury and Beams during their shellacking at the hands of Hawthorn. The three dynamos combined well at the weekend unlike any other trio from the same team have done in 2012. If there’s been a better DT-scoring trio from the same team – I’d love to know about them so I can pencil them into my team for 2013.

Twatter – Your Numbers

 

 

 

 

Cheers Mick – Any of those (me included) who were sucked in by the hope of the likes of Goddard and Fisher reclaiming their DT thrones in 2012 have been sadly let down. The hopes that new coach Scott Watters would bring more ‘positive’, ‘attacking’ footy has brought about the downfall of several past premiums. Much like a certain Freo defender (ahem… Broughton **cough) has been ruined by Ross Lyon.

 

 

 

 

It can be very annoying when watching a bad game of footy – enough to turn even the most loyal supporters away from the screen. However when a game is turned into a running joke due to incessant whistle-blowing, it’s enough to turn those same supporters to the drink. More than ever in 2012, good games have been ruined by ‘over-umpiring’. Great stat Griff!

Send me your ‘Numbers’ for the week @McRathDT

Bone of Contention                                                                                                                    

Travis Cloke has been awful at times this year, frustrating his faithful DT coaches and real coaches alike. With a 4-Round avg of just 52 points (including a 42, 41 and a 37), he’s performing at more than 23 points less than during season 2011 and has now dropped $176,700 this year. If anyone’s willing to take a punt – he’d be a handy inclusion this week if he’s named at FF to play GWS.

Close behind: Robinson, Adcock, Goddard.

Seventh Heaven

The number 7 has particular importance this week as not 1 but 2 star forwards kicked their way to a bag of goals in a winning side. For the first time since Fevola did in R12/13 of 2010, this round saw a player kicked 7 goals in consecutive matches – Drew Petrie you are a machine. Now closing in on the Coleman medal leaders’ jersey, the Petrie Dish is a sneaky chance to take out the gong. With Buddy still injured and JVoldt not exactly racking them up – it wouldn’t be the worst wager you’d make in 2012. Also, joining big Drew is goal-scoring dynamo Matty Pavlich. As mentioned previously, the Pav is on some streak – scoring 3 or more goals the last 7 weeks (there’s that number again).

Whore of the Week

A career-high 49 disposals, 2 goals and a whopping 165 points is nothing short of outstanding. To do so in a side that lost by 47 points? Amazing. Yet another 150+ score, yet another entry into the WotW books for Dane Swan. Seriously, is there anything this guy can’t do?

The Round Up

Highlights – Rocky’s late flurry of goals against the Suns gave me a much needed and solid 110 as captain. Spewing I left the C off Swannie but I’ll take the 110 given it could’ve easily been an 80. Swan, Pendlebury and Beams – enough said. Overall solid week for most premo’s as we also saw Pav (120) and Petrie (128) kick truly for big scores in their wins over GWS and Richmond respectively.

Lowlights – Robinson’s late withdrawal left many coaches without cover and would’ve been cursing. I was lucky enough (if you can call it that) to have a playing emergency in Cory Dell’Olio so was able to snag a handy, but unspectacular 43 points as compensation. Many weren’t so lucky. Boyd put in a disappointing 82 against Carlton, more annoying to any coaches who had him as captain. With a different of 83 points between Swan and the Bulldogs captain, this choice could’ve cost you more than a few games (as my decision to choose Rocky over Swan did).

Team McRath – With a solid score of 2185 in R17, I’m happy with my progress late in the season as I now sit only a few spots outside the top 6,000. I’m praying to the DT Gods for mercy during the finals as I look to make the Top-4 in four of my leagues. If I can get my guns all firing at once, I may just be able to sneak into the top few thousand come R23 and salvage something from the wreckage that has thus far been my 2012 season.

Now, I know I’ve left it til the end, but I’d like to throw huge thanks out to @Douthteez for filling in with The Numbers last week. He did a great job – definitely owe that man a beer or two.

As we look forward to the last two H2H matches for the year, it’s more important than ever that we check out our opponents to try and get a leg up. If you’re currently on the cusp of the 8, you may want to trade aggressively (and strategically) to gain a valuable point of difference for the run home. If you’re safely inside the finals zone, conserve your trades and pray for mercy from the DT gods come those final weeks. Good luck for R18 and cheers for reading.

If you’re STILL not following me on Twitter, shame on you. It’s not too late though – hit me up now @McRathDT

48 Comments

  • Nice numbers McGrath!

  • Another awesome write up.

    Although my season is shot I am still here Bro, and still hoping for a league win or two.

    Love your work.

    • IF YOU FINISH 17 th or 18 th do you get to play finals does anybody know

      • No you don’t. There is not even the “pressure” of playing against receiving the wooden spoon.

        Points on overall stats still continue for the next 6 weeks.

  • Great read McRath!! Interesting re Garlett, in a couple of games I’ve watched where they play him through the middle of the ground his pace has cut the opposition to shreds, not sure why they don’t use him in bursts more often

    Also, whilst not DT relevant, you mentioned the number of points kicked this round….there have been 21 matches this year where a team has had more scoring shots than the opposition but lost the game. Out of 144 matches played that is close to 1 in 7….Endorsement for Sam Newman’s F@#K Academy???

    • Thanks McRath awesome write up.

      On another note ;) is it worth going Clarke to Baguley leaving me with cash and 2 trades Clarke ain’t playing anyway.

  • if you finish 17 th or 18 th do get to play finals please answer

    • I think not

    • Taken straight from the DT website: “rounds 20-23 will comprise of a top 8 finals series, based around the real AFL finals system, to find the overall league premiers. 9th – 16th will also play off for the league’s minor premiership. The bottom 2 teams miss out”

  • Nice numbers again McRath. Swannie was outstanding again along with Beams and Pendles. Maybe half their problems was that they spent too much time chipping and handpassing to each other.

    • Haha they can do that on the weekend ;)

      But swannie wasn’t very efficient on the weekend.

      • #not hating

        • You do have to ask the question., if a player is clocking 49 pozzies in a game where his team is whalloped how effective is he. (Although I guess you could make the same statement about GAblett and there is no doubting his brilliance).

          • You also have to consider what the players who received his disposals did with them… he may have got it to the right guy in the right place but that player then may have screwed up the play… 63% disposal efficiency is a bit down on his season avg. of 68% as well.

  • hey mcrath, which league aren’t you top 4 in?? ;)

    • Just some hack league… don’t really care much more it tbh haha

      In all seriousness… 21st ranked league – I’m happy to not be coming last!

  • Did you ride Jack Grimes off good?

    I hope he got the reach around

  • Great article Mcrath, an awesome read! Just wondering with a complete team but with Giles is it worth going smedts-baguley for cash (because i already own Couch) then Giles to cox/maric but with only 1 trade left but a complete team? If so who would be the better pick Cox or Maric? Thanks heaps.

    • Cheers for the kind words Jack (and everyone). Hmm tough one. I reckon Giles has run his race. He may pump out a respectable avg for the rest of the year but the last month has shown that, like many rookies – he’s fading in the second half. With Sheedy using Brogan every 2-3 weeks too – his scoring is about as reliable as Relton Roberts right now… okay maybe thats a bit harsh.

      In short – the upgrade would be worth it, but I’d wait to check Baguley holds his spot first. When Hibberd comes back (could be this week or next) you don’t want him to be sitting on the pine all year when you need rookies playing as cover – Smedts has been pretty good in that regard…

      It all depends on a few things:

      1. How are you going in your leagues (if you’re going for league wins); and
      2. How reliable your premos are

      An upgrade to Maric/Cox is tempting but remember they’re likely to be rested/injured (Maric) over the next month anyway… so its your call buddy. Can you upgrade to another ruck without downgrading? MInson at $402k and Jacobs at $430k look pretty good atm

      End Story-Length reply.

      • Thanks a lot for your reply McRath, really appreciate it! I’m unfortunately short of getting in one of your suggestions with only $350,000 without a downgrade. Im sitting comfortable in one of my leagues but my other I’m 5th with a game out, so I’m focusing on doing well in that one and getting my overall ranking up even though it isn’t that good anyway haha.

        My premos are fairly reliable as I reckon my team is going well. My only concern with going to a minson or Jacobs is that they could quite easily average vey similar to what Giles will average in that run home as they are not quite premo category, therefor maybe not worth the trade, making my trade to a cox (as I reckon he might now be my preferred choice of ruck because of the issues you have highlighted) more preferable. I have currently Goldstein as my primary ruck. I shall wait for the teams and weigh up whether the trades will be worth it.

        Sorry for my big rant haha and I will definitely put what you said into consideration.
        Look forward to next weeks numbers!

        Thanks

        • I reckon Jacobs and Minson will smash Giles’s DT output, he has become the biggest goddam witches hat of recent times.

  • RUCK UPGRADE OPTIONS

    Giles – BE 117, PROJ 57 = -$24,100
    – BE 92, PROJ 57 = -$38,100

    Cox – BE 152, PROJ 90 = -$24,800
    – BE 128, PROJ 105 = -$34,100

    Maric – BE 147, PROJ 86 = -$24,300
    – BE 132, PROJ 111 = -$32,800

    Thoughts
    1) Hold Giles for one more week as he will score more than 57 and will not lose as much money.
    2) Trade for Cox over Maric due to Ivan’s supposed injury.
    3) Trade Giles now…to who?

    • I would go with option #3, Giles has run his race. Get the best ruck you can afford; at this late stage in the comp there is no point waiting.

      I’d suggest you look at Ben McEvoy. Unlikely to be rested, and looking untroubled by his earlier injury. He won’t score like Cox at his best, but as their only genuine ruck he will get plenty of TOG and can get possessions at ground level. Also has one of the best runs home in terms of ruck match-ups.

      I wouldn’t touch Maric at this point. Cox would be great if you can afford him, but I’d say he’s likely to spend a lot of time forward given their injuries and may be in line for a rest (although it is looking less likely that the Eagles will have that luxury).

  • from the essendon website:

    “Michael is doing extremely well with his recovery and while he has been ruled out of this week’s game, we hope he is a good chance for the following week against Adelaide,” Hamilton said.

    “Both he, David Zaharakis and Paddy Ryder have all been very impressive over the last two weeks in their recovery and modified training programs.”

    looking like ryder might come back next week… if not this week… i can only hope…

  • team is:
    lids, god, lake, adcock, birchall, hep, waters (darley, spurr)
    stanton, hayes, boyd, gazza, priddis, rocky (williams, sexton)
    ryder, goldy (big o, redden)
    stevie j, robbo, buddy, sidey, ROK, martin, zorko (dickson, couch)

    advice on what to do would be great guys.

    possible trades:
    dickson – beams
    stanton – swan
    darley – grimes
    ryder – cox or jacobs
    dickson – danger or pav

    i have 2 trades and 213k in bank.
    at this stage i want to just finish top 3… currently 2nd but have 2 tough games coming…

  • What should be my biggest issue I look at addressing

    The fact that Giles is my second ruck. The fact that Darley, Clarke or S.Shaw are my D7 options or the fact that Milera, Crozier and Sexton are my forward backups which has caused me to cop donuts the last few weeks.

    I’ve only got 2 trades and $7k so I’ very limited in what I can do. I’m sitting 3rd in my league with two easy games to come so I’m not sure if I should even be trying to fix anything right now.

    • with only 7k in bank i think your stuck with what you have.. unless you downgrade a rooke to someone…

      means you will burn a trade on a downgrade and then have to choose between your ruck upgrade or defender upgrade.

      you might be able to downgrade giles to jenkins… he played well on the weekend and got 99DT points..

      would then give you some cash for a slight upgrade for a semi better defender…

    • 2 of your 3 forwards will def not play again this year and the 3rd is highly unlikely. Your D7’s are chances of playing on a week to week basis and at least Giles is playing for the moment. So unless u want a doughnut every week you need to fix your forward line as a priority

    • What if I went Sexton to Couch to give me a playing forward at least and then Giles to Goldstein, Nic Nat or Griffin?

      I don’t really have anyone I can downgrade to give me enough cash to be able to get a decent forward

      • seems as good as anything..just means you’ll have to hope your best players stay fit and healthy

  • Ablett Injured!?

    http://www.fanfooty.com.au/forum/index.php/topic,65435.0.html

    Anyone heard anything else?

    • If he was injured, surely everyone would know……

      he would be twittering away as per usual about it and there’s no way the media would let an injury to such an amazing player let go like that….

  • who to upgrade first Giles or Hargrave?
    Thinking Giles but if hargrave is out again he’s gone
    I have 307k after downgrading porps to couch
    If I trade hargrave I’m definitely getting Birchall
    Who should I get if I get rid of Giles? already have Cox

  • Just got a private message from someone named Zita on here saying:

    graceamsalu10@yahoo.com
    Hello
    I saw your profile today and it was so good to me.u know that i am interested to be a friend first.please i will like you to contact me direct to my e-mail address, (graceamsalu10@yahoo.com) so that i can give you a full introduction of my self with my pictures ok. i will be waiting for your mail to my e-mail address(graceamsalu10@yahoo.com) as you know
    there is no age,race,colour and religion bar in knowing each other thanks.
    cares Grace.

  • Lol got one from her yesterday…..and no one said anything about it so I was like is it just me?

    Until now…..

  • Hey Guys,, currently coming equal 8th and versing 3rd place this week.
    Got 3 trades left thinking of trading Zorko ( i can offord any player except swan) but dont know who to choose.
    Or trading Zorko – Swan and jared polec – Miles