Tbetta’s Bullets: Round 17

  • Landmines

It was a very weird week in DT in Round 17. Intuitively, it looked like being a high scoring round; but for every big score we earned, there seemed to be a mild disappointment attached to it. Watson 121, but Stanton 84. Stevie J 107, but Chapman 66. Scotland 112, but Carrazzo 83. And so on. Therefore, it came down to whether your side had the right combination of players, hopefully dodging landmines of mediocrity along the way.

A big game-changer was the late withdrawal of Mitch Robinson. As a very popular forward (especially in DT Talk circles) and with Franklin still on the sidelines, our forward cover again came into reckoning. The graphic to the right shows that in complete contrast to last weekend, we have very few coverage options. Treloar was fantastic, Eliiott and Zorko solid as ever and at least Tom Couch gave us something, but that was it (Note: Smedts scored 86, but most coaches have him as a DEF). This was mainly due to the exodus at GWS this week, with Sheedy attempting to protect the young Giants from a gruelling cross-country trip.

Hopefully, you had a guy like Treloar or Elliott there ready to rise to the challenge. With many teams ‘complete’ at this stage of the year, these are the bonus points that set you apart from the pack.

 

  • Makers and Breakers

You rarely hear stories about players standing tall in a Sunday twilight fixture – normally it’s a last-minute failure. This week, it was rookie Adam Treloar that went above and beyond what we expect from him and busted out a team-high 106 points. It was an amazing consolation prize for those that had him covering either Franklin or Robinson or both in Round 17.

He may be made of chilled glass, but Grimes showed this week why fantasy coaches have been fawning over him in the hope that he’ll develop some semblance of durability. 11 marks from 32 possessions (not to mention some uncharacteristic high disposal efficiency) birthed 135 points. Grimes has been a very sneaky pick this year, missing just the one game and averaging 89 per game, which is Top-7 Defender worthy.

Rounding out the Makers this week is three legends of the fantasy world. I rated Pendlebury slightly ahead of Pavlich and Swan, given his extended lay-off with that cracked tibia. He’s posted scores of 117 and 142 on return, indicating that he hasn’t lost any touch or confidence in that time off. 11 tackles boosted his scored from great to excellent.

Pavlich and his fantasy resurgence weren’t far behind, kicking a bag of 7 against the Giants for 120 DT points. He’s now averaged 114.4 points in his last 5 games (2nd highest of the forward eligible), and kicked at least 3 goals in each of his last 7 outings.

Coaches can talk about effectiveness and efficiency as much as they want, but in DT, it’s all about the numbers. Swanny is the perfect statistical specimen – this week, he had 49 touches and 2 goals make up the bulk of his 165 points. As the most popular Captain choice, this meant 330 points to many very happy suitors.

 

While we should have seen it coming after the demise of Zac Smith last year, it doesn’t excuse the shocking drop-off by Giles this year. He averaged 85.6 up until Round 9, which is certainly Premium territory, but has gone at just 57 a game since; not to mention missing two crucial games in that time. His 36 points on the weekend came against Griffin and Zac Clarke, hardly a suffocating ruck opposition.

I’m sick of talking about Cloke. 37 points. Not good. No longer a premium. Feel sorry for those who picked him up over the MBRs when he seemingly bottomed-out.

Swans teammates Goodes and Mumford come in at 3rd and 4th this week. While effective, Goodes just couldn’t gather the stats that we need in DT and thus only manufactured 47 in game where he was structurally invaluable. Doesn’t speak well for his fast-finishing reputation… Mumford was actually subbed out at the main break with a knee issue, stranding him on 54 points. If you brought him in as a replacement for Giles or Kreuzer… Ouch. Could be out for a few.

It’s a bit of a throw-back at 5th spot in the Breakers for Round 17. Josh Drummond was once a Premium consideration (averaged 86.4 in 2007), but injury has always held him back. He made it to 37 points on the weekend then, you guessed it, another injury. This time, a knee hyperextension. Not to be outdone, Shaun Higgins made sure he injured himself the next day…

 

  • Bargain Bin

A couple of readers pointed out that not everyone is down to LTI trades – some sneaky coaches have been squirrelling away trades for the run home. For that reason, here are the best value options on the market, although admittedly, it has largely righted itself over a long season. For those who don’t have any trades left (like me), you can just sit back and rue the tasty trade-targets that you can never enjoy…

Heath Shaw – $374,600 – DEF – 84.3 avg L3

Yes, I know he’s a walking brain-fade. Yes, I know he’s about as close to the definition of inconsistent as you can get. But the fact is, you’re getting a Top 7 Defender at a great price. A BE of 76 means Shaw’s price is on the rise, and GWS coming up this week, now’s the time to jump on.

Nick Malceski – $319,800 – DEF – 85.0 avg L3

Eski is back in vogue. He’s been savaged by the Swans’ selectors this season, but he’s put together a solid run of football and looks like he’s here to stay. At his price, and for what he can do, he’s a bargain. Straight-swappable for Broughton.

Marc Murphy – $384,000 – MID – 98.0 season avg

If you’re looking for a midfield ‘upgrade’, then look no further than Murphy. Seriously; I didn’t. Pendles is also under-priced at $472k, but in a value-sense, he’s miles off Smurph. Discounting his injury affected 27, he’s averaged 106 points so far this season; including that run of 5 110+ scores to kick off the season. If you have a MID slot to fill and you don’t snaffle up Murphy, you’re a fool.

Todd Goldstein – $368,500 – RUCK – 80.1 season avg

There’s not a heap of value left in the rucks unfortunately, so it takes Goldstein’s 55 and 59 in Rounds 15-16 to hurt his price and make him affordable. He hasn’t had the best form leading in, but we all know what he can do. If you have $70k and Giles, it’s a no-brainer.

Brent Harvey – $372,300 – FWD – 93.0 avg L3

I like Harvey at this price. Sure, there are guys like Beams and Pavlich tearing it up, but they’re also priced like guys who are tearing it up. Thankfully, Harvey is $100k cheaper and could still bust out a 90-point average to close the season.

Hopefully I covered all bases there. Is there anyone you think I’ve missed? Let me know in the comments or on Twitter.

 

  • And the Rest

It’s been said to death so far this year, but season 2012 is one of the tightest we’ve ever had. Certainly, it’s affecting the fantasy landscape as we head into the DT Finals. It’s usually around about now where we start looking at which teams are going to rest their stars. Traditionally, it’s the teams who a Top 4 place sewn up, against the weaker sides (think Hawthorn against the Suns in Round 24 last year). But with the ladder so tight, will there be any teams that have the luxury in 2012? Let’s have a closer look.

Sydney Swans

Outlook: Swans are sitting pretty at 1st on the ladder with a superior percentage to equally-placed Adelaide, but inferior to Hawthorn who are just one win behind.

History: The Swans don’t have a history of resting, mainly because they haven’t been towards the top of the ladder in recent seasons. It’s unknown which way they’d go given the opportunity.

Run Home: Collingwood, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Geelong.

Possibilities: It’s fair to say that Swans won’t rest their stars. The Bulldogs in Round 21 would be their only opportunity, but with a tough run home that includes the Pies, Hawks and Cats, each percentage point is going to count. A Top 2 berth is not something that they’ll risk, especially with a home final so crucial to a non-Victorian team’s chances.

Adelaide Crows

Outlook: Second on percentage to the Swans, with the 3rd best percentage in the League.

History: Again, there’s no reported history of resting because the Crows haven’t been in that position since it came into fashion.

Run Home: Fremantle, Brisbane, Melbourne, Gold Coast.

Possibilities: Adelaide is definitely in a great position to take out the minor premiership. Those with Scott Thompson, Sloane, Dangerfield, Porplyzia or Sam Shaw should be worried as a blessed run home means that they’ll likely win their last 4. If percentage is not an issue, expect Round 22 against the Dees in Melbourne to be a danger game for resting. Round 23 against the Suns is the obvious candidate, but it’s at home (no travel benefit) and they won’t like disrupting their preparation leading into a likely home final.

Hawthorn Hawks

Outlook: Currently placed at 3rd but with a superior percentage to any other team in the competition, the Hawks look poised to mount an assault on the minor premiership. Equal on points with the Pies, but Collingwood will need an extra win to place above them.

History: Notorious resters. Did so against the Suns last year, but haven’t rotation-rested so far in 2012.

Run Home: Port Adelaide, Gold Coast, Sydney, West Coast

Possibilities: They’ll hit Rounds 22 and 23 will full force in possible 8-point contests, so Round 21 against the Suns looms as the likeliest candidate. It all depends on percentage, but if they roll into Round 21 with such a buffer over those around them as they currently do now, then it’s looking good for players like Buddy, Mitchell, Birchall, Suckling, Rioli and even Hale or Roughead to have a cheeky week off. Good timing in terms of momentum into the finals, too.

Collingwood Magpies

Outlook: 4th, but equal with the Hawks on wins. They have the lowest percentage of the Top 6, although they do play the Giants this week. Expect them to go all out.

History: Have come out and said they’ll rest players this year, and have opted for a more rotation resting policy so far this year. Injuries to their stars have muddied the water slightly, but key players like Sidebottom and Beams haven’t had a rest yet.

Run Home: Sydney, North Melbourne, West Coast, Essendon.

Possibilities: The Pies have a tough last 4, and with a spot in the Top 4 by no means guaranteed, I’m tipping that they won’t have a mass resting. In fact, this week against the Giants is the most likely, and even then – they need the percentage. However, if the top 2 sides break away from the pack and there’s no chance to drop out of the Top 4, Round 22 against the Eagles in Perth would be a logical week to have off.

West Coast Eagles

Outlook: Currently 5th, but only on percentage over Essendon. Have been smashed in their last two matches against Sydney and Adelaide compounded by some telling personnel issues.

History: Rested Priddis, Glass and Rosa earlier in the year against the Suns, but that was when teams were attempting to mirror Geelong’s strategy from last season. Injuries have hit and they haven’t had the luxury since.

Run Home: Geelong, Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Hawthorn

Possibilities: Like much of last year’s Top 4, the Eagles have a testing run home. Given their injury concerns and the urgency to earn a home final with a Top 4 finish, you can be sure the Eagles won’t rest any of their stars.

Essendon Bombers

Outlook: Sitting at 6th on percentage to the Eagles.

History:  Again, this is new territory for the Bombers so they have no resting data to date.

Run Home: North Melbourne, Carlton, Richmond, Collingwood

Possibilities: The Bombers are in a very similar position to the Eagles. They are injury-ravaged, and to earn a Top-4 spot, they need to leap-frog someone with an extra win. They’ll throw everything at it for the remainder of 2012.

 

  • Compartmentalising

I penned my DreamTeam ‘dream’ last week, and thanks to you guys for all the comments and discussion. I’m confident that it would be an engaging competition, but realistically it’s not going to happen. One of the key clues to what VS will do with DT next year comes from what they’ve done historically – keep it simple. We won’t have wholesale changes across the board, and it’s just as unlikely that we’ll have any significant structural changes either (I’m talking any change from the 7-6-2-7 on-field structure, or large changes to the current trading scheme).

With this knowledge, it’s probably worth thinking about more likely solutions. What tweaks can we make to our great competition to solve some of the issues we talked about in last week’s Bullets? The main priority is keeping engagement across all participation levels over the whole season.

The Front-Runner

The most likely solution for next year is a reimagining of the same solution VS came up with in 2011– more trades and more bench slots. About 30 trades and squads of 33 seem about right. The extra trades will help navigate through the two MBR blocks next season (presumably a 24 round season, with MBRs in rounds 7-9 and 15-17), and the extra bench positions will mean that we won’t have to burn 3 trades each bye rounds to avoid donuts. The Magic Number won’t need altering too much (see here for Magic Number Theory) as fitting three extra players into the salary cap, along with fewer rookies with decent job security, balances out the natural inflation in the AFL’s official salary cap figure.

With the Bye issue addressed, how can we keep the casual DTers interested without ruining the integrity of the competition? Here are a couple of options, keeping simplicity in mind.

Use It or Lose It Trades (Again…)

In this scenario, we’d go back to something like 20 trades for the year. These trades can be used at any time, with a maximum of 2 per week, with one exception. Over the 6 MBR rounds you get the 2 free trades, and if you don’t lose them, they disappear.

The advantage of this is that it regulates how many trades each coach can use over the MBRs. Every coach would use close to the maximum 12 ‘free’ trades in Rounds 7-9 and 15-17, leaving 20 trades for the remaining 18 rounds of the year. Hopefully, this will prevent the casual DTers from burning through the max trades each week, and even if they do, they’ll still be involved until at least Round 18 with the Use it or Lose it trades that they’ll gain in the 2nd MBR block. It will also prevent the hardcore DTers from force-feeding themselves donuts in the name of saving trades in the MBRs, because they’re trades that they won’t get back anyway.

It’s an improvement; but still, the problem remains – how do we keep them interested until the end of the year?

Compartmentalising Trades

This is my preferred solution. The idea here is to lock away trades that can only be unlocked after a certain point in the year. My suggestion is to keep 6 trades that will be unlocked after Round 18, in time for the last 6 rounds of the year. The other 24 can be used as normal up until that time, and aren’t reset after Round 18 or anything like that. This figure seems about right, as 5 or 6 trades extra this year would have been very handy.

There are a few positives that come out of this. Even if the casual DTers burn through all of their trades early, they’ll still be able to get back into the game for the DT finals, extending their interest until at least the last couple of rounds. It will also prevent pilot-less teams heading into the finals and being easy-beats; no more teams who have been strong all year, earned a great league position then become push-overs after being littered with donuts and not having the trades to manoeuvre out of them. It also shouldn’t affect the hardcore DTers too much, as they all say that holding trades is the way to go, right?

[Note: I’m against over-compartmentalising trades (ie 10 trades each 8 rounds, etc.). No-one wants to see too many extra restrictions put on our trading, and it’s actually a bit counter-productive making it too difficult for the casual DTer.]

Keeping in line with Virtual Sports’ K.I.S.S strategy, I think a relatively small change like this could make a relatively big difference to the continued interest and enjoyment of DT over an entire season. What do you think? Do you agree with the suggestions above, particularly with the Compartmentalised Trades idea? What small changes would you like to see brought in to DT next year? As usual, let me know in the comments or on Twitter.

 

  • Tbetta’s Tweets

I’m with you, I’m not convinced either. Firstly, let’s not forget that this is only with Ryder out of the side – he’ll likely be back in the side around DT Finals. So who gets dropped, Hille or Bellchambers? Either way, his role changes, and it’s not going to be for the better. Secondly, he’s kicked at least two goals in each of the last two weeks, which accounts for his inflated scores. Call me a sceptic, but I don’t think that will happen consistenly. Expect more of the 70-point type scores from here on out.

In saying that, you don’t have too many options with only a $360k reach, and Bellchambers is about the only decent option. I wouldn’t look past Warnock at $304k though, coming back from suspension and into a ruck-less Carlton side. He’d be my choice, as risky as it sounds.

 

So true… As I said in the Breakers, Cloke’s no longer a premium consideration. I mean, Dawes has averaged more than him in the last 3 matches, and he’s supposed to be a second-class hack in comparison.

Take a look at the concept of a contract year and tell me that he’s not doing the complete opposite….

 

  • Burst Fire

As always, there are a few little tid-bits that I want to mention before we prepare for next week.

#  Carlton’s main ruckman was Levi Casboult this week – an underdone CHF prospect who wouldn’t have earned a debut in almost any AFL team this season. The result? Will Minson totals 54 hit-outs, the 5th most since the competition became the AFL. Amazingly, it’s not his best effort – he notched 56 hitouts against Collingwood just last year.

#  Luck has not been with the trade-holders so far this year. If you’re keeping trades in the bank, you’re hoping for carnage; at the very least, some injuries or suspensions to popular players to give those with flexibility the advantage. That looked to be the case two weeks ago – Waters, Goddard, Martin and Franklin all found themselves on the sidelines. However, Martin and Goddard were only suspended for two weeks, Waters did a Scotland and made it back in 1 and Franklin looks a chance to return this week. If that’s the case, trade-savers who were looking to trade out of that ‘carnage’ have been brought back on even footing very quickly.

#  Josh Kennedy had 35 possessions for just 99 DT points. Why? A 7:28 kick-to-handball ratio, that’s why. Get your boot on it son!

It doesn’t look like we’ll have any of our stars ruled out by suspensions this week. Just Scarlett for a week (nice backhand) and a few Roos and Tigers handed fines for wrestling.

 

Alright, that’s it from me this week. As usual, DT Talk has you covered from all angles in the lead-up to Round 18, so tune in daily for all the regulars. Also, keep an eye on sidelined guys like Sam Shaw, Robinson, Franklin and Broughton, all of whom are pushing for selection this week.

 

Question of the Week: Anyone daring to take the ‘C’ off Swanny against the Giants? Just look at that stat-producing rig…

 

 

 

Tweet me at @Tbetta9 for all things fantasy.

96 Comments

  • First of all where is his Pig’s tattoo?

  • Should i trade Giles to Maric and Hampton to couch with 1 trade left and my team completed ?

    • Didn’t take long.

    • I wouldnt Maric looked a bit off this week and I think I heard richmond say they are going to “ease him though” the rest of the season…

    • This is not a shot at just you Sebastian but a general comment regarding “should I swap player A for player B or blah balh blah…” Unless you give additional info how would anyone be able to give you relevant advice? Are you coming secong and want to win the car?? Do you need to win a league match to make the top 8 ?? Will you have doughnuts if you don’t swap?? How many trades do you have left??

      More to the point…Cracking write up Tbetta!!! I’m one of the clowns who got Cloke during MBR’s…fair dinkum at the moment he wouldn’t get a kick up here in the Groote Eylandt league!!

    • roughy cud be a nice point of difference

  • Great article Tbetta!

    You have really out done yourself, keep it up :)

  • Top class article Tbetta!!
    My fav article of the week.
    Keep it up mate!

  • I haven’t read yet but had to make a quick comment. This article looks like a beast! Excited about settling down for a good read.
    Thanks Tbetta!

  • Haven’t read the article yet, but had to comment to say thanks for taking the time to write this monster! Looking forward to settling down for a good read!
    Cheers, Tbetta!

    • And my first post makes an appearance. Bit of lag there, sorry for the double post!

  • I’ll go with Swanny if nothing else as a safe option because every one will choose him. But what chance is there he gets a red vest or doesn’t go all out? The pig can lack motivation at times.

  • Nice read tbetta, always love the articles!!! :)

    Going back to the mad monday conversations, there are a lot of great playets in the afl (glass, scarlett, fletcher etc.) that are not DT relevant, this idea might increase the scoring by a bit and make it more confusing but what about VS take into account the amount of spoils that a player makes because the full backs make a lot and it would make them more DT relevant. also, they could score more points by winning 1v1 situations.
    Just a thought and sorry for going of topic.

    • If it was a point a spoil I would lock in Josh Gibson (Hawthorn) next year.

    • You can play SuperCoach for that. I can’t see the DT scoring changing. While it would open up other players to be selected, the scoring system isn’t broke, so it doesn’t need fixing.

  • Nice write up mate. And just to make Josh Kennedy K:B ratio seems worse, he actually only got 99pts!!

    • Cheers for the correction! Fanfooty mustn’t have done a manual edit yet.

  • Great stuff Tbetta
    Where do you find the time? Haha
    One thing I have realized is I really need swan or beams in my team.
    I know I’m crazy not to have them and it really hurt this week knowing I had
    Boyd as captain as well :(

    • Same i really want swan, but my MID is complete

      • I want Sean but I’ve got a space left and 4 trades. Can’t decide of murphy now or swan later

  • I’m pretty keen to get on board the Pendles train. I could upgrade Barlow or Priddis and would leave me with 2 trades left….

    thoughts anyone?

    • Not much of an upgrade really… I’d keep the trade for an LTI, or look at other areas of your team to improve, but that’s just me.

    • Don’t do it.
      I was in the same position and i got advised not to.
      and ot turns out that i eventually got pendles this week and kept priddis and ebert.
      So just do not do it.

    • As posted below, Priddis last 3 round average = 115.67

  • What do you think the chances are of Pendles averaging the as swan for the rest of season. Don’t know who to get and Pendles is a lot cheaper.

    • Not as much. You’ld imagine 120 to 130 ish. But the question is what you can do with the extra 120k?

  • Hey Tbetta, cheers for the article. Love the time and effort put into these Bullets.

    Not going to get on your bargain pick of Murphy but instead jumping on a cheap Pendles for M6.
    However, I need to downgrade to fund these costs. Who is the best rookie to trade in?

    At this trade of this season, JS and DPP is a lot more important than scoring potential so who is the best MID or FWD rookie options:

    Couch (M/F)
    Baguley (M/D)
    Miles (M)
    Clifton (M)
    Sheringham (M)
    Dunnel (M)
    J Walker (F)

    Don’t fancy the inconsistency of GWS playing time and have no idea about the JS of Sherringham, Dunnel and Walker but don’t think they are too great especially as they are Geelong and St Kilda rooks.

    • probly couch, depends on the best dpp link for you and if you need it. So in order for me would be Couch, Baguley, Miles.

      • Cheers Stevo.

        Unless someone gives me info about Sherringham, Dunnel or Josh Walker, won’t consider them.
        Agree with your order. DPP will be very helpful since my whole fwd line is mid/fwd apart from Buddy and Hall but don’t have one in the mids.

        I think it’s a toss up between Couch and Baguley but don’t know who has the better JS.

        • gotta be couch. melbourne will surely want to run him for the rest of the season now that he’s properly in the squad

  • At the start of the season i was tossing up between Grimes and Broughton.Got that wrong,very wrong.

    • Yep, same here. Not even a bunch of concussions can keep Grimey out of it this season! Broughton on the other hand… I’d sell him for a handful of beans if it was possible.

  • Great article as usual! Really interesting idea having trades that can’t be used till the end of the year. I’m not sure what I think, but it would definately keep players in the game that burn through thier trades quickly.

    • Great article tbetta.

      Guys just wondering is it worth getting rid of Clarke leaving me with 2 trades and cash for finals, Clarke isn’t playing anyway btw.

  • I think Sam Docherty might get a call up this week had a another good game in the reserves got 26 disposals.

  • Not quite relevant but still useful: http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/142430/default.aspx. – No Buddy Club suspensions. BUT
    http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/142380/default.aspx – He probably won’t be back for another week.

  • Hey everyone, just want some thoughts.
    I have two options:

    Option 1: trade williams to couch and move goodes to mid and zorko to fwd and then trade goodes out for pendles.
    Leaves me with 3 trades and around 20,000 in the bank.

    Option 2: trade williams to couch and then upgrade gibson to murphy.
    Leaves me with 3 trades and around 3,500.

    Which do you think is better??

    Any thoughts at all would be helpful
    Cheers in advance:)

    • as a non-goodes owner i can say i’m quite happy that i didn’t have the sufficient funds to get him in 2 weeks ago when we thought he had bottomed out in price.
      However, even thought he’s had a bad few weeks, i reckon he has the ability to bounce back and rack up some big scores in a team that seems to be doing exceptionally well this season. So i think option 2 is slightly better, although in saying that i’m not sure about murphy’s form at the moment.

      Option 2 just slightly edges out option 1, is zorko and goodes on field for option 2?

      • Yeaa, zorko in the mids and goodes up front.
        But i wanted to get zorko in the fwds.
        Cos i was really wanting option 1 . hahaha, oh well

        • haha mate that’s the fun of DT, make bold choices that you made yourself, because if you didn’t you’ll just regret it.

  • what’s everyones thoughts on priddis>pendles a direct swap
    leaving me with 2 trades for the rest of the season…

    • Again, i said this to someone above.
      I was in the same position (ebert/priddis to pendles) but i stuck with them and might end up getting him this week.
      So do not do it, it will only result in a few extra points a week, maybe even the same or less in some cases.

      • Thanks jerome, i just read the post then, good advice. I think i’ve just got classic monday trade fever.

    • Ignore Priddis’ average of 95…

      Last 5 rounds he averages 106, even better last 3 rounds averages 115.67

  • I have 4 trades left should I do a luxuary trade and go

    Brad Ebert- to pendles/murphy

    Ebert has run it some bad form over the last month and isnt a proven super premo like these two

    Or should i hold my trades for The finals?

  • Cheers tbetta, always love the read on a Monday. Agree with the lads, what an epic edition!

    Okay, I know it’s got something to do with the magic number or whatever, but how the fark is McVeigh averaging 23 ppg less than Stanton and costing $42K more? Stanton’s price is about $3700 per point… the best value of the season’s leading scorers by a mile (Pav’s above $5000). I realise he’s been a bit down lately, but surely he rates a mention alongside Smurph?

    So I have 1 trade and $139K left and trying to decide whether Ellis to Stants (using DPP) or Zorko to Swan is the better move… anyone have an opinion?

    Gibson’s currently my M6, so this is definitely my area of greatest need.

    • It’s to do with the 3-week rolling average and how they use it to calculate a player’s new price. Basically, he’s been down for a few weeks now so his price-drop sort of snowballs.

      As for Stanton… He’s cheap, but does that mean good value? Will he be the guy who averaged 134 from Round 1-8, or the imposter that has averaged 94.5 since? I don’t see too much changing, so I’m thinking more of the latter. It’s a tricky art, picking when players form will change – Pendles and Murphy had their price drop because of injury, so I’m a bit more confident that they’ll be elite in the run home.

      As for your question… I’d hold. I wouldn’t feel comfortable suiting up for the last 6 rounds without a trade.

      • Who is better value pendles or murph???

        • pendles. murphy will attract number 1 tag for the next 3 weeks until juddy returns.

          I wouldnt be picking up stants, he struggles to rack up the points when the bombers arent dominating. and dont see them returning to form with the injuries they have.

        • Murph.

      • Cheers for the explanation… makes slightly more sense, but still seems like a big discrepancy. Based on that alone, I reckon he’s worth the risk. Has Collingwood in the DT GF who famously don’t tag. Only way is up!

        Not comfortable suiting up with no trades going into the finals? I thought you said you didn’t have any trades left…? Or do they give DT Talk boys extra trades for finals? ;)

  • TBetta you really do put so much effort into the bullets and i look forward to it every monday when my trade finger is always itching. My first real year for DT this year and i have to say this site has helped me immensely! So much info and it gets me pumped for thursday teams and lockout. Thanks again and hopefully our eagles can turn around and get some momentum for the finals! Cheers

  • Boyd a breaker for me.

  • If you totally pissed off with Cloke and crazy enough to trade him, who do you get for 340k?
    Any ideas?

    I know, I have kept him this long I should harden up and keep him for when there is a ‘Clokefest’ as one prestigious member of the DT community once stated. Where is TKOL btw?

    • Tomahawk or Nahas if you are desperate. Considering going Cloke to Sidebum with my last trade

    • Hawkins?
      Collins?

    • bit risky, but maybe brad green.
      he has had a shocking year so far, but looking like he might be on the up…. maybe.

    • Maybe give him one more week since he is playing the GWS?

      • Agreed. He tonned up against GC and I reckon he’s good for at least 110 this week.

        In the meantime, Fyfe will return this week, is a fair chance for the red/green vest (a la Barlow on his return from injury in rounds 1 and 2) and you may be lucky enough to get him cheap enough for a swap in a week or so.

  • 1 trade left – Four Options
    1. Cloke to Sidebottom (F7)
    2. Williams to Van Berlo (M7)
    3. Townsend to Malceski (D7)
    4. Keep trade

  • thanks for the mention tbetta, damn rucks are bane of my existance!
    great article, go the eagles

    sad thing is, if redden had js, i’d probably be playing him on field ahead of warnock and kruezer.

  • Keep Stanton and zorko or trade for Mitchell and pendles ( or someone similar ). Have 5 trades and $49600 in kitty
    Any words of wisdom ???

    • Waste of two trades!

      Stanton broke the DT record, granted he isn’t in great form, but can get you some massive scores. And trade out Zorko? cmon he has been awesome! Use your trades to upgrade rookies, not sideways trading your guns

  • Hey guys just wonderin anyone got any thoughts on upgrading giles to nic nat a couple of k cheaper than goldstein and has a higher ceiling tho. neither of them look like gettin a rest before the end of the year .

    • I think that is a good unique option If you need a cheaper option. Averaging better than Goldstein

  • 1 more ruck to finish my team, can afford anyone, already have big cox. GO

    • has to be Ivan

    • Give it to jacobs, ona debut for me he got 122.

      • thanks guys, I want to lock in maric but with all the speculation that richmond are going to “ease him back to full fitness” Im very tempted to go with the in-form jacobs.. decisions, decisions..

  • Gibbs to Murphy – would you do it with 3 trades left?

    • No

      I would only consider a trade like that in finals, not this early with so few trades

  • Hi all, could you pass me some advice?

    My FWD’s are;
    Robbo, Dusty, Beams, Sidebum, Franklin, Zorro, Hampton (Couch, Tomlinson)
    …….Spot the man needing upgrading. 5 trades remain.

    I’m aiming for league finals win.
    Hampton has made some money – time to upgrade some time between now and the start of the finals.
    Who should I upgrade to?
    Fyfe? Can I take the risk?
    Chapman? Whats with stumpy? What’s with all the low scores? Does he have an injury?
    Who else should I consider?
    What should I do?

    • Similar FWD line as me, except Chappy and Porps instead of Beams and Hampton. If you’re playing for league wins (same as me) I’d be a bit wary of Chappy just for now and see how he goes over next couple of weeks, assuming you’ll make the finals. Looks to be running out of steam and may get a rest at some point. I have one FWD trade to make and I am thinking Porps > Fyfe could be genius, but will wait and see how things pan out at least until Fyfe gets 2 games under his belt. Luckily Porps is in the kind of form where maybe I don’t even need to trade…

      If Fyfe’s not going to work best options for me are Goodes or S. Johnson (but Beams if I can afford it)

      • Cheers – yeah Fyfe is a gun when fit, but you can bet every defender/tagger assigned to the Fyfe-man is gonna test out that shoulder.
        I have no budget concerns though, just want the best possible player.
        I’ve stayed away from Stumpy all season (Goodes for the same reason) cos I fear any veteran players close to the 300 game mark, as when their form turns around it can happen pretty suddenly!!
        But Stumpy has been pretty good up til now…..

        Guess I’ll see how the next game pans out and see how much money Fyfe or Stumpy drop…..

  • Good Stuff Tbetta. Swanny stays Captain should get 50 possies against the giants and kick 10…
    Also hoping at least one of Darley, Shaw or Hargrave get a gig this week. Cost me dearly last week…

  • 6 Trades Left going for finals win. Should i

    1. Trade A.Hall my 9th Forward to T.Couch then go D.Martin (worst fwd/mid) to D.Swan

    2. Hold trades for finals

    Thoughts

  • Zorko to Murph and pocket the extra cash and finish my Mids or hold?? 4 trades left

  • I have Maric, Giles, Ryder and Redden in Ruck.

    4 trades left and some cash.

    Should I trade or wait Ryder to come back for finals – sitting happily in top 4 in league

    Forward line has Cloke/Zorko and I want to trade in Franklin for finals.