Player Projections for DT Finals – Forwards

Here’s the last instalment – Forwards.

 

The weightings are as follows:

45%

Player’s current season average (straight out of DT website)

+

30%

Player’s average against opponent over this season and last (injury/sub-affected scores omitted).

+

25%

Player’s average at the venue over this season and last (injury/sub-affected scores omitted).

=

Projected score

 

No, this model hasn’t been peer-reviewed and accepted for publication in the journal Nature, so I accept that it won’t provide unequivocal finals projections.

 

Player

Price

F1

Score

F2

Score

SF

Score

GF

Score

Finals Average

Dayne Beams

$510,500

SYD

112

NME

112

WCE

112

ESS

109

111

Lance Franklin

$511,500

PTA

107

GC

107

SYD

115

WCE

105

109

Paul Chapman

$489,900

WCE

102

STK

104

WB

112

SYD

107

106

Dayne Zorko

$439,100

CAR

103

ADE

101

PTA

100

WB

107

103

Steve Johnson

$450,700

WCE

94

STK

91

WB

118

SYD

102

101

Mitch Robinson

$445,700

BRIS

94

ESS

98

GC

100

STK

94

96

Matthew Pavlich

$476,300

ADE

88

RIC

101

NME

101

MEL

94

96

Steele Sidebottom

$456,400

SYD

76

NME

100

WCE

96

ESS

99

93

Ryan O’Keefe

$455,600

COL

99

WB

92

HAW

90

GEE

87

92

Jordan Lewis

$407,300

PTA

91

GC

95

SYD

85

WCE

90

90

Danny Stanley

$417,500

GWS

93

HAW

86

CAR

84

ADE

93

89

Brendan Whitecross

$403,400

PTA

89

GC

96

SYD

82

WCE

75

86

Cyril Rioli

$421,400

PTA

95

GC

92

SYD

72

WCE

84

86

Nick Riewoldt

$381,800

MEL

90

GEE

81

GWS

92

CARL

77

85

Patrick Dangerfield

$403,900

FRE

92

BRIS

66

MEL

92

GC

88

85

Harley Bennell

$391,900

GWS

86

HAW

87

CAR

80

ADE

78

83

Dustin Martin

$382,200

WB

90

FRE

74

ESS

84

PTA

82

83

Taylor Walker

$383,800

FRE

80

BRIS

82

MEL

52

GC

87

75

Michael Johnson

$375,200

ADE

76

RIC

74

NME

73

MEL

75

75

Jack Anthony

$168,100

ADE

34

RIC

36

NME

40

MEL

31

35

 

The verdict

I’m pretty sure we all have Dayne Beams by now and rightly so as the reuniting of Swanny and Pendles will hopefully give Beams his freedom back so he can decimate his opposition during finals. I really hope you held on to Buddy because when he returns I’m pretty sure he’s going to be better value than Goodes. I’m happy for him to miss the next three if it means an uninterrupted finals series.

Deciding between Chappy and Stevie J is a decision that I envision many of us have dealt with at some point this season (and previous ones). True to what we’ve come to expect from him, Chappy looks like he’s going to give us solid contributions throughout the four weeks which, if you’re like me, makes him a lock. If you already have him and are keeping an eye on Stevie J then listen up. If Sydney has cemented a top 2 spot by round 22, they might be tempted to keep some guys at home and rest them up for their qualifying final the following week instead of risking them in a bruising game at Kardinia against a Geelong team that might be going for broke. If that happens and the game opens up, there is a potential for Stevie J to annihilate them as he does to most teams who visit Geelong. Even at the SCG, a hard tag from Nick Smith has only kept him to around 85 in recent matches. With a home game against the Doggies the week before (a team he obliterates because Picken goes to Selwood), he is almost worth a sideways trade halfway through finals if this scenario plays out. Given that Brendan Whitecross and Jordan Lewis play Port and Gold Coast in their first two finals games, followed by Sydney and West Coast, these two shape up as prime sideways offloads. Dustin Martin is another.

For those of you who, like myself, brought Dayne Zorko in to cover Dustin Martin during finals, it’s pretty clear that those roles will be reversed. Zorko has shown us no reason to remove him from our field since he debuted (he’s allowed 26 as sub and 69 after copping one in the face before half time) and unless something horrific happens in the next three matches, he is a finals starter.

On recent form you’d probably have to go with Pav over ADHD Robbo, but I don’t see a lot separating these two over the last four. Sure Robbo will probably see more time on the ball in Juddy’s absence but that’s only good for the first week of finals and thereafter we’re back to normal. Even their coach ownership numbers are similar at 21.7% and 17.7%, respectively. Toss a coin.

For the destitute I see only two options, Patrick Dangerfield is one. The other, who is also a point of difference, is Danny Stanley who is only owned by a ludicrous 1.17% of coaches (okay maybe he did miss the first seven matches). He is a champ. I don’t care if he’s out this week, all the more reason for him to come back refreshed in time for finals (his first game of this year in round 8 was a 105). If you’re looking for someone on the cheaper side who is also a point of difference, you can’t go past this guy. The only other point of difference is Jordan Lewis, who I’ve already mentioned finishes with two tough ones. In his last three games of 2010 and 2011 he did average 110 though so don’t waste a trade getting rid of him if you have him – he’ll be serviceable.

I can guarantee you that Rioli will get Rhys Shaw and A. Selwood respectively in his last two games, which doesn’t bode well for coaches relying on him in prelims and GFs. Ryan O’Keefe is the same price as Steele (so don’t be stupid), Riewoldt will be having a cry, Harley is still a year or two from being a legit option and Walker and Johnson are too unpredictable, so I’d be overlooking these guys.

I know people will mention Colin Sylvia and fair enough. I see him only as a smokey though as we need reliable players during finals who have a history of producing the goods. Colin Sylvia has a history of causing nervous break downs with his sub-par performances late in the season. Purchase at your own peril. Goodesy is a better option.

Finally I’ve included Jack so we can gauge his (lack of) ability. Look how he compares to a superstar in Pav – how frustrating must it be for Pav to play alongside what is essentially a witch’s hat? At least a witch’s hat wouldn’t turn the ball over though. Let’s just hope that the club will allow its greatest ever player to stay focused for the remainder of the year and aren’t creating off field dramas by trying to a) poach a new coach for 2013; b) trade Nat Fyfe for some nuff; or c) breed Jack Anthony and Zac Dawson to produce a player so detestable that he’ll no doubt be snapped up by them with a first round draft pick.

Thanks for the feedback, I hope I’ve been some kind of help and all the best for finals.

From 155,

Emma Gemma Jnr.

DOWNLOAD THE SPREADSHEET: Finals-Projections.xlsx

12 Comments

  • According to Emma Gemma Jnr.
    if my…
    – Captain is Dane Swan
    – Trading goes to plan
    – Players avoid injury

    I will score…
    2249 in RD 20
    2326 in RD 21
    2319 in RD 22
    2328 in RD 23.

    I will be very happy with those scores!

    Thanks for the Articles Emma.
    :)

  • Great work Emma, lots of hard work has gone to this!!

  • Great write up Emma, I have really enjoyed this series of articles. I notice that Adam Goodes isn’t listed in the score projections, does this mean you expect him to average less than 75?

  • Back: Deledio, Scotland, Goddard, Waters, Suckling, Carrazzo, Jack Grimes (Wilkes, Lodge)

    Mid: Swan, Ablett, Boyd, Pendlebury, J Selwood, Priddis (Brad Hill, Stevens)

    Ruck: Cox, Giles (Stephenson, Pattison)

    Forward: Franklin, Sidebottom, Pavlich, Martin, Porplyzia, Hawkins, Patton (Murdoch Paine)

    no money left
    6 trades
    backline and midfield complete
    this week planning on trading stephenson for josh hall and giles for sam jacobs to complete ruck
    then work on forward line

    but I might miss out on getting goodes at a low price so maybe hawkins to goodes

    Thoughts???????

  • I only looked at the top 20 averages is each position, I think he was 21st. In hindsight I probably should’ve added him though. I’d expect him to be above O’Keefe in that table.

  • Awesome read, thanks for this.

  • Came 5k short of bringing in Goodes last week as F6/7, forcing me to do an extra trade for cash. Found out I can now afford Stevie J. Given the Cats are unlikely to be in a position to rest guys, I’m going to hope he brings in the Goods (pun intended).

    That means I have #1, #2, #3, #4, #5, #6, #8 projected forwards (with Couch/Adams/Martin as DPP cover). Backline and mids are slightly less awesome as I hoped, but with three trades left for finals I’m hoping I’ll still take out the league titles.

  • Great work,I like it 1,2,3,4,6 with dusty and goodes to round out.

  • Is it just me that can’t see the final column because of the layout of the page..?