Player Projections for DT Finals – Rucks

You’re almost as well off tossing a coin as you are reading this article because this year there’s a better chance of finding a North Melbourne member than a reliable ruckman. Interpret the following with caution.

Just a reminder that the weightings are as follows:

45%

Player’s current season average (straight out of DT website)

+

30%

Player’s average against opponent over this season and last (injury/sub-affected scores omitted).

+

25%

Player’s average at the venue over this season and last (injury/sub-affected scores omitted).

=

Projected score

 

No, this model hasn’t been peer-reviewed and accepted for publication in the journal Nature, so I accept that it won’t provide unequivocal finals projections. If you think it’s shit then go have a good cry.

 

Player Price

F1

Score

F2

Score

F3

Score

F4

Score

Finals Average

Ivan Maric*

$485,300

WB

100

FRE

100

ESS

107

PTA

105

103

Dean Cox

$481,500

GEE

92

PTA

103

COL

97

HAW

94

97

JarrydRoughead

$449,500

PTA

91

GC

94

SYD

92

WCE

87

91

Sam Jacobs

$409,600

FRE

84

BRIS

101

MEL

79

GC

96

90

Ben McEvoy

$406,100

MEL

88

GEE

91

GWS

89

CARL

91

90

Hamish McIntosh

$408,800

ESS

79

COL

89

FRE

89

GWS

97

89

Shane Mumford

$363,300

COL

87

WB

78

HAW

82

GEE

100

87

Stefan Martin

$397,100

STK

91

GWS

83

ADE

83

FRE

86

86

Will Minson

$387,200

RIC

90

SYD

78

GEE

87

BRI

86

85

Jonathon Griffin

$373,000

ADE

79

RIC

90

NME

86

MEL

82

84

Patrick Ryder

$417,400

NME

96

CAR

79

RIC

81

COLL

78

83

Todd Goldstein

$392,700

ESS

79

COL

87

FRE

85

GWS

76

82

David Hille

$368,400

NME

85

CAR

77

RIC

79

COLL

78

80

David Hale

$377,800

PTA

84

GC

78

SYD

77

WCE

79

80

Jonathan Giles

$314,500

GC

90

MEL

66

STK

71

NME

89

79

Ben Hudson

$359,400

CAR

79

ADE

74

PTA

78

WB

77

77

Nicholas Naitanui

$373,000

GEE

84

PTA

76

COL

78

HAW

69

77

Darren Jolly

$375,900

SYD

78

NME

71

WCE

70

ESS

83

76

Tom Bellchambers

$320,700

NME

75

CAR

76

RIC

75

COLL

76

76

Matthew Kreuzer

$309,900

BRIS

75

ESS

70

GC

73

STK

79

74

* Given his trade, I haven’t included his data from last year.

 

The verdict

There are really no surprises here – Maric and Coxy are the best ruck duo in the competition. Maric’s late omission on the weekend seemed like a blessing in that I figured it would mean he’d play through the remainder of the year. That was until my carnage-magnet friend Ashleigh (it’s actually ridiculous how many injury-related trades she’s had to make this year) broke the news to me thatDamien Hardwick hasrevealed he has a groin problem and “will be nursed through the rest of the season”, whatever that means. More forward time? Probably. More Angus Graham to take points off him? Probably. His scores will suffer? I think there’s a good chance. With this comes the importance of our backup rucks. If you have Derickx at least you know he’ll come in if Maric is rested again. His score might be only slightly better than a donut though. There might also be a need to sacrifice an emergency in our other positions and make sure we put it on our backup ruckman in case Maric is another late omission. This sounds like rubbish that we don’t need to be dealing with at this point of the season. With this in mind, maybe Cox is a better optionas West Coast’s loss hopefully means that he can’t afford to be rested as they strive to cement a top 4 place. Although Ashleigh also has him so you can be assured he’s going down soon.

At this juncture I want to say that I trust Sam Jacobs over Ben McEvoy, but Jacobs hasn’t been afflicted by any untoward conditions thus far and no ruckman seems immune from a stint on the sidelines. His recent form is pretty impressive though and I reckon he’ll do at least as well as Roughhead, who costs $40,000 more. So just cross your fingers and focus on that Adelaide run home I’ve been harping on about – lock him in.If we are to trust Brad Scott, HMac’s return (if at all) will be as a forward so stay away from him. Goldstein’s early season form has affected his projections so I reckon that he’ll be a bit better than what is shown above but I’d still go McEvoy. Roughead’s biggest problem is GF day, as he has struggled against the Cox/NicNat combo.

The return of currently injured ruckmen is going to affect the scores of their counterparts who are currently playing. Stay away from Stefan Martin as Jamar’s returncould spell the end of his DT contributions. Freo’s situation is similar as they have some pretty good ruckmen (who’ll therefore probably end up being traded to some nuffs in the offseason) but an uncertain outlook. Griffin has actually been pretty reasonablethis year but I don’t know how much of an effect the big 211’s return will have on him. Add Essendon to the list. Bellchambers might actually be a bargain if Ryder can stay injured for us, but who knows. All guesswork, which suggests we play it safe and leave these guys out. I don’t see the logic in grabbing someone like Martin, Minson, Ryder (when/if he returns) or Goldstein anyway given that Jacobs is only a touch more expensive and should perform better than all of them – I reckon it’s worth freeing up that little bit more cash.

Guys like Hille, Jolly and Kreuzer are probably better suited to backup roles (which will probably end up being critical at some point during finals). Although NicNat is capable of winning mark and goal of the century in the same passage of play, he’s probably not going bring home a league win for you so I wouldn’t be relying on him.

If you’re considering upgrading a field position to the likes of Ben Hudson, Darren Jolly, Matthew Kreuzer or Jonathon Giles then your definition of the word ‘upgrade’ leaves much to be desiredand I wish you all the best for your nuffs’ consolation finals series.

Forwards to follow.

All the best,

Emma Gemma Jnr.

15 Comments

  • nice write up.

    loooks like its ryder – jacobs or mcevoy

  • I’m enjoying these articles Emma Gemma, great job!

  • Another good one Em. The amount of time you put into DT rivals mine and puts you into contention as my future wife ;)

  • This from fantasy freako highly concerns me:

    “It’s bad news for coaches with big Ivan Maric. He missed last week’s
    match against the Suns with a groin complaint, and it has since been
    revealed that he will be nursed through the remainder of the year with that
    ailment. Another week off isn’t out of the equation, so look elsewhere for a
    trade up target.”

    For me Giles to Ryder to Maric all in the space of four weeks looks like ruining my season at this stage.

    • Am curious – Maric isn’t on the Tigers injury list and can’t find anything to validate the groin complaint. Not that I am doubting ‘Freako – but does anyone know where this has come from??

  • Great article, although, with all the information you have put down the only person I am ruling out to get is Maric. So, who should I get for Ryder, can afford anyone, will cox get rested, lots of eagles players been injured this year so he may play through and lots of competition so may still need to play best team to guarantee top 4. If not cox its out of Roughead and Mcevoy.

  • Maric or McEvoy taking into account that McEvoy is $80k cheaper?

  • The scores look far too uniform for each player….

  • Why would you include Bellchambers….. these articles….

    • Because he’s currently playing for Ryder and every chance of staying and Hille being dropped

  • So what to do with Ryder as ‘ve had him since round 4 and don’t really want to trade him out?’Don’t have the luxury trades left to do that unless it’s a neccessity.

  • RUC: Maric, Ryder (Stephenson, Redden)

    Should i trade Ryder out even though i just got him in 2 weeks ago?

    3 Trades left.

  • Can we ban everyone that suggests this player or that player might BE RESTED lol.No but seriously it has got beyond a joke,lets just cross that bridge when we get there hey…