Player Projections for DT Finals – Midfielders

There are a few more options in the midfield, so I’ve looked at the top 30 (excluding dual position players who you can find in either the defenders (i.e. Lids, Carrazzo, Scotland etc.) or forwards (i.e. Beams, Sidebottom, Chappy etc.) articles.

Just a reminder that the weightings are as follows:

45%

Player’s current season average (straight out of DT website)

+

30%

Player’s average against opponent over this season and last (injury/sub-affected scores omitted).

+

25%

Player’s average at the venue over this season and last (injury/sub-affected scores omitted).

=

Projected score

 

No, this model hasn’t been peer-reviewed and published in the journal Nature, so I accept that it won’t provide unequivocal finals projections. If you think it’s shit then feel free to go and get your advice from that Dream Team bloke (I refuse to refer to him as ‘Doctor’ because his title is more realistically ‘Year 9 Drop Out’ Dream Team).

 

Player Price

F1

Score

F2

Score

F3

Score

F4

Score

Finals Average

Dane Swan

$594,700

SYD

126

NME

137

WCE

125

ESS

132

130

Gary Ablett

$521,200

GWS

115

HAW

133

CAR

112

ADE

130

123

Scott Pendlebury

$471,900

SYD

108

NME

117

WCE

126

ESS

120

118

Brent Stanton

$459,800

NME

120

CAR

118

RIC

114

COLL

115

117

Scott Thompson

$492,700

FRE

111

BRIS

124

MEL

107

GC

120

115

Jobe Watson

$503,100

NME

112

CAR

108

RIC

120

COLL

110

112

Matthew Boyd

$530,100

RIC

112

SYD

119

GEE

108

BRI

109

112

Joel Selwood

$470,400

WCE

108

STK

107

WB

106

SYD

106

107

Tom Rockliff

$473,200

CAR

94

ADE

115

PTA

110

WB

108

107

Marc Murphy

$406,900

BRIS

109

ESS

104

GC

111

STK

99

106

Sam Mitchell

$486,600

PTA

107

GC

109

SYD

91

WCE

113

105

Jack Redden

$460,500

CAR

105

ADE

102

PTA

107

WB

102

104

Shane Tuck

$501,300

WB

106

FRE

108

ESS

97

PTA

105

104

Brad Ebert*

$437,900

HAW

107

WCE

104

BRIS

104

RIC

100

104

Chris Judd

$418,500

BRIS

105

ESS

97

GC

107

STK

98

102

Andrew Swallow

$481,200

ESS

101

COL

95

FRE

107

GWS

100

101

Lenny Hayes

$424,000

MEL

104

GEE

101

GWS

98

CARL

99

100

Trent Cotchin

$480,300

WB

97

FRE

102

ESS

110

PTA

92

100

Jimmy Bartel

$431,500

WCE

96

STK

100

WB

103

SYD

99

100

James Kelly

$440,800

WCE

102

STK

91

WB

101

SYD

98

98

Dale Thomas

$442,700

SYD

89

NME

109

WCE

96

ESS

93

97

Matthew Priddis

$456,100

GEE

99

PTA

93

COL

97

HAW

95

96

Kieren Jack

$470,100

COL

97

WB

104

HAW

92

GEE

92

96

Ryan Griffen

$394,300

RIC

88

SYD

97

GEE

96

BRI

102

96

Josh Kennedy

$422,100

COL

94

WB

88

HAW

99

GEE

95

94

Luke Shuey

$456,900

GEE

91

PTA

95

COL

92

HAW

90

92

Shaun Grigg

$441,200

WB

100

FRE

84

ESS

94

PTA

91

92

Callan Ward

$434,500

GC

91

MEL

95

STK

81

NME

99

92

Scott Selwood

$384,300

GEE

94

PTA

92

COL

90

HAW

91

91

Matthew Rosa

$433,900

GEE

85

PTA

102

COL

89

HAW

88

91

* Given his trade, I haven’t included his data from last year.

 

The verdict

In his last two against Essendon, Dane Swan has averaged 171 with a standard deviation of…zero. So if you expect to be playing in a grand finalyou should do whatever is needed to acquire his services – he could well be the pirate’s #1 on GF day.Unsurprisingly, the usual suspects (Ablett, Pendles, Boyd & Jobe) are all up there and should do well, but I reckon Stanton’s projected consistency doesn’t reflect his roller coaster DT career – also he plays Collingwood on the last day and we know that Bucks likes to target him (case in point: Anzac Day). He’s just too risky. I’m also a little bit worried about what might happen if Raines goes to Boyd, away from this beloved Etihad, in the GF (Vossy please send him to Griffen). Scott Thompson is the realstand out for me, mainly because of his run homeand opposition on GF day – if you have him as a point of difference in any of your finals matches, you’re going to be in really good shape.

 

For those who are strapped for cash, on first glanceMarc Murphy appears like hecould do the job of a J. Selwood/Rockwiz/Mitchellfor a fraction of the price.I’d agree with you if Juddy hadn’tdecided to bend Leigh Adams’ arm into the fourth dimension. But now his suspension means that there’s no one at Carlton who warrants a tag ahead of Murphy in the foreseeable future.Although he’s done well against Brisbane in recent times, he’s never had to deal with a tag from Raines which, if he gets in week one of finals, could mean the end of your year, so beware. Geelong’s run home is tricky and they will likely need to win games so Bartel won’t be rested.Having done everything there is to do in the game (including finish the last few years in good touch),some may sayhe’s a safer option (and isn’t coming off a serious injury). I feel a little bit sick throwing Ebert out there as another alternative, but numbers don’t lie.

 

As far as points of difference go,one ofthe RedRockboys (Redden owned by 2.5%; Rockliff 5.9%) are your best bet as they should be pretty solidduring finals, while Swallow (owned by 4.4%) is always good for a ton ± 10 pts. I actually think Shane Tuck will have a pretty goodrun home (purely from a DT perspective) and he’ll never get but, in light of their respective prices, you’d be crazy to take him over one of the Brisbane guns.Given the alternatives in this table, I’d be staying away from the West Coast boys because they face some tough opposition in their last four and will probably take points off each other anyway. Likewise the Sydney combo (Kieren Jack under the radar much?!). Unfortunately Freo’s midfield doesn’t feature, nor does Melbourne’s, which suggests to me that their (DT) GF day clash could be a worse spectacle than Meatloaf’s abomination last year.

 

Rucks to follow.

 

All the best,

Emma Gemma Jnr.

15 Comments

  • Good write emgem jr!!

  • Although if you look at it realistically brent stanton will have lower projections because of all the bejeebers he has been giving everyone lately.
    But axcording to the things you based it on its probabaly correct do well done on another successful article

  • i love that report. next chance can it be published about round 10. when doing upgrades. i have bugger all trades left now. i can just look on longingly….

  • Enjoyed the article, good work.

    One thought though … Scotty Thompson’s draw does look good, but I’d say he is one of the more likely midfield candidates for general soreness on GF day. Your other premos will be playing for finals position, with Adelaide and North probably the only teams who could afford the luxury of resting players against their opponents that week (assuming they don’t need to make up percentage).

    • That’s a very good point. Like you say, I guess a lot will depend on how Adelaide finish the season.

    • Why would he be rested when he’s surely coming into serious brownlow contention?

    • They need to keep winning before they can worry about resting players

  • Nice article Em. Great source of information. Agree about Judd… I hope Adams’ injury isn’t too bad as he was hitting some very good form. Finally living upto the thought that this was his year.

  • is it time to trade stanton out for watson

  • Great article.
    Thoughts please? with 5 trades remaining and 40’000
    Mids: Ablett, Watson, Pendles, Jelwood, S Selwood, Hayes.
    Think i need to get rid of S selwood and maybe Hayes.
    Which option?
    a).1. downgrade for cash this week 2. selwood to swan in 1 week .3. hayes to murphy in 1.
    b) 1. Straight selwood to murphy in 1 and safe trades for finals
    c) 1. Downgrade for cash this week 2. Trade in swan for Selwood next week

  • Good feeling to have 6 of the top 7

    • If you have the money/trades to go Giles -> Jacobs and Ellis -> Scotland I don’t see how anyone can beat you.

  • Ummm shit article???