Player Projections for DT Finals – Defenders

So it’s almost finals time. Pre-empting my top four finish (yeah right), I’m using my last two trades this week but for those of you who are good coaches or have been lucky enough to avoid this year’s carnage, you still might a have a few left at your disposal. My good friend Kane falls into the ‘good coach’ category and last week reminded me that, at this point of the season, the guys we bring in will be with us for our tilt at the flag. With that in mind, he insisted that it’s essential to make sure the guys we upgrade to have a good finals draw and can smash out tons when we need them most. Hopefully the following can help you make the right decision if you’re tossing up between a few different upgrade options. Also, it might reveal who should be on your field during different weeks of finals.

 

Basically, I’ve put together a pretty rudimentary formula to project how the best DT players will score in each of our four DT finals matches. I’ve only considered the top 20 players (based on season average) in each position, who have played at least 8 games. Today I start with the defensive options.

 

For those interested in the maths, I’ve used a weighting to determine the projections. I assume it probably shares some loose similarities to that used by Assistant Coach, although it’s probably more realistic, given that I rarely get within 200 points of my Assistant Coach’s absurd projection. I’ve only included data from the last two years because I reckon some teams have changed tactics/coaches since 2010 (i.e. West Coast). I appreciate that’s not the case for all teams (i.e Freo, who have been consistently shit since 1995 and should just fold), but I’ve tried to make it as relevant as possible.

 

The weightings are as follows:

45%

Player’s current season average (straight out of DT website)

+

30%

Player’s average against opponent over this season and last (injury/sub-affected scores omitted).

+

25%

Player’s average at the venue over this season and last (injury/sub-affected scores omitted).

=

Projected score

 

So here goes…

Player

Price

F1

Score

F2

Score

SF

Score

GF

Score

Finals Average

  Brett Deledio

$500,300

WB

106

FRE

104

ESS

110

PT

106

107

 
  Andrew Carrazzo

$437,000

BRIS

98

ESS

109

GC

89

STK

100

99

 
  Beau Waters

$450,000

GEE

109

PT

81

COL

98

HAW

106

99

 
  Heath Scotland

$424,100

BRIS

100

ESS

102

GC

90

STK

98

97

 
  Grant Birchall

$428,300

PT

91

GC

94

SYD

98

WCE

95

95

 
  Brendon Goddard

$390,900

MEL

88

GEE

89

GWS

95

CARL

92

91

 
  Jack Grimes

$385,600

STK

94

GWS

92

ADE

86

FRE

89

90

 
  Matthew Suckling

$382,300

PT

88

GC

91

SYD

83

WCE

88

87

 
  Dyson Heppell

$375,800

NME

80

CAR

86

RIC

89

COLL

93

87

 
  Corey Enright

$403,100

WCE

80

STK

87

WB

90

SYD

90

87

 
  Pearce Hanley

$431,100

CAR

74

ADE

90

PTA

91

WB

90

86

 
  Heath Shaw

$374,200

SYD

72

NME

85

WCE

92

ESS

94

86

 
  Jed Adcock

$373,100

CAR

74

ADE

78

PTA

90

WB

85

82

 
  Jason Gram

$363,000

MEL

78

GEE

86

GWS

81

CARL

80

81

 
  Brent Guerra

$332,500

PT

76

GC

72

SYD

90

WCE

79

79

 
  Greg Broughton

$326,000

ADE

76

RIC

80

NME

90

MEL

70

79

 
  Shannon Hurn

$361,900

GEE

77

PT

78

COL

90

HAW

69

79

 
  Brian Lake

$355,800

RIC

69

SYD

69

GEE

90

BRI

79

77

 
  Nathan Grima

$341,200

ESS

65

COL

71

FRE

90

GWS

79

76

 
  Michael Johnson

$375,200

ADE

76

RIC

74

NME

73

MEL

75

75

 

 

The verdict

If you don’t have Lids, it’s pretty safe to say that you’re the dream team coach equivalent of Jack Anthony and won’t be anywhere near finals, let alone literate and reading this, so we’ll skip him. Carrazzo’s going to smash the last four games and Scotland won’t be far behind so they should be locks if you can afford them. It looks like anyone who held on to Waters might just be a genius (especially given his GF projection), as long as he gets himself back soon. For those of you who traded him, I hope it was to Birch who looks like a solid alternative. The most interesting finding of the analysis might be Jack Grimes, who is projected to be the seventh best defender during finals and should also provide a reasonable point of difference – definitely one to consider. There shouldn’t be too much separating Enright and Suckling, but each finishes season with a tricky match so I might even be inclined to stay away. Finally, if you’ve cemented a top 4 position and are confident you’ll win your qualifying final, Heath Shaw or HepD might be smokies as they should get better the deeper into finals you progress. I don’t think anyone else in this group is a viable option, least of all the Fremantle duo who will be too busy being shit to win you your league.

 

Midfielders to follow.

 

All the best,

Emma Gemma Jnr.

50 Comments

  • Very insightful. Will follow closely during the Finals to see how accurate your projections are. Thanks.

  • Woops, this needs to be updated. Warnie will come through I’m sure.

  • Pfft venues weighted at 25 and average this year only weighted 45….. I’d expect a poor article from a biased West Coast supporter

    • I support Gold Coast. It’s in my RSVP profile.

      • That makes sense.. changed from wce to gold coast after WC got the wooden spoon and GC entered

      • Still the point about weightings holds, why would you do that? Do you have any stats on standard deviation by player across venues over time? I bet it would be huge. Weighting that much by venue is as valid as a Luke Shuey high tackle.

    • You’re a deadset flog. Thanks for the insightful and well thought out article Em Gem.

    • Dear Internet,

      This is why you shouldn’t exist.

      Dear Brodie,

      You would have been more valuable as a protein shot.

      Interesting article Emma, but as per almost every ‘predictor’, it is pretty much mathematically redundant. Far too many variables and unpredictable circumstances. But good on you for having a crack and getting people to think about who they could possibly look at with luxury trades come finals time, it’s a far better read than any of the ‘Comments’ sections on the DT Talk site.

    • adding a number to the end of a name reminds me of the hotmail days when I was 15

    • You are a complete wank Brodie! Average at venue is a very relevant stat. If you don’t understand this point then maybe you shouldn’t post. The AFL use different sized grounds.

      Don’t listen to idiots Emma! I like the thought process you have used here. Awesome work. I will definitely be checking the scores through the league finals. It will be interesting to see if your equations are close to the mark.

      If people don’t like an article then fair enough. Why they feel the need to post crap is beyond me…..

      • This is why it would be awesome if our DTT accounts were linked to our DT accounts. That way any posts made would show your ranking and therefore its relevancy…

        • Ridley thinks he’s all hard cos he was ranked high at the start of the year… his annoying posts have declined as his ranking has done the same. I wish we did have our accs linked to this sight cos then u would see how much better my team and ranking is than urs. I have a whole team of premiums including a DPP link so Adam Goodes is my 7th Mid and 8th Fwd, I was also ranked 23rd earlier in the year so my input is a lot more valuable than alot of others on the sight.

          And yes maybe my reply was rude but no Freo supporter wants to log on to the sight to read an article hating on them, and ignoring players like Michael Johnson bcos he is a Freo player is just plain bias and stupid

  • M Johnson projections 76 , 69 , 66 , 66

    Considering he has scored 90+ in 9 of his 15 games (60%) I think he may score better than these projections. It does show how much he has improved this yr tho.

  • “i.e Freo, who have been consistently sh*t since 1995 and should just fold”

    Well said! Cheers for the stats.

    • Yep, plus if you have Smedtz he serves as fwd – def which is good for injury cover. MJ has been pretty good this year. His playing is still at times cringeworthy but he permenantly plays loose across half back now which is a great DT pos.

      • I have Smedts too but no matching fwd/mid and he stays in only because some other defender(s) are out when I want to trade him. He’s been something between a last-ditch choice and a playing donut for me. I seem to be so often trying to patch up def instead of building it up!

  • Interesting article – thanks for provoking neural activity.

    Hmm – two years of data, may this bias Lake’s projections downwards? Not that he had a great weekend…

    I’d also be interested to see which teams are more likely to rest players than others i.e. – which teams are firmly entrenched in the top 4/8. I expect this will be hard to analyse this year – although no doubt the HAW v GCS game will ruin many a finals campaign…

    Thanks

  • Pretty sure the last 3 will be better than that

  • Taking cheap shots at other teams has no place in DT articles imo. Take it to BigFooty.

    • banter is as much a part of footy as DT so suck it up freo boy.

    • Michael Johnson

      $375,200

      the best example why these things never work, having a career best year in terms of DT playing a completely different role and will score differently in accordance.

  • Might be a little off as you take out player’s (injury + sub) scores when considering their form versus opposition and at venues but neglect to take them out in their season averages.

    The major outsider being Courtney Dempsey (8th highest priced DEF) as he was injured round 3 for a score of 10 and started sub in round 6 in his come back playing 1.5 quarters for a 62. If you take those out he is actually averaging 86.5 which is 0.1 points/game less than Matt Suckling who from memory (but could be wrong) has not been subbed or injured this year.

  • RIP DT 2012 :(

  • Emma Gemma, god bless you for this amazing article and your accurate depiction of the Fremantle F.C. I think they should spend less time tanning and more time training.

  • Thanks for this EmGem,

    Looks OK to me – as valid as any other systematic projections out there.

    However, to be honest, you had me as soon as you suggested Broughton is going to get anything above 50. I’ll buy whatever you’re selling!

    Looking forward to other categories.

  • Interesting way to make numbers and to look for something new. Did you test your model over, say, the past round or two?

    I think Assistant takes running averages more into account than this model but it shows an interesting number that also shows in your model – no Crows. Adelaide has a far easier draw into DT finals than most teams but their defenders score DT crap.

    I also don’t know how you factor in wierd stuff such as how coaches can confuse players with constantly changing roles that turn their form, confidence and DT scores into mush (Lyon/Broughton?)..

    I think the biggest factors in choosing are GL and GI factors – good luck and gut instinct – and you can’t model those. Still, you’ve done some good work that shows interesting things so thank you!

  • gees by this i should upgrade lake and adcock…

    i only have 3 trades… dont see how this is going to work….

    FMDT

  • Hey emgem how are gold coast going this year, yeah thats right shit, freo on the other hand, still in the hunt, cheers

    • The only thing they’re in the hunt for is a decent playing list. They’ll be very active at trade time because they know they’ve ‘done a freo’ with their list and got nowhere. Again. They’ll pull off a few trades for players who will attempt to bolster the team, but realistically will go nowhere. I think taking history into account, that is the most accurate ‘projection’ for Freo.

    • If you’re a freo supporter change your name from Scooter because you are disgracing the real Scooter.

      Cheers to you.

  • whats c dempseys outlook like? or do you think he should be traded. apart from this week has been very very solid as a starting mid pricer and point of difference player

  • If freo get cloke (hope they dont) then they are not gonna let him play cos examples are many but one that pops out to me is jack anthony

  • You should fold…..

    Yes we have never won a premership but I’m pretty sure we have been more succussful than a lot of team over the past 15 years……Richmond being one of them.

    • “We are slightly less shit than other extremely shit teams”

      That’s something to hang your hat on

      • And for the record, over the last 15 years Freo have finished on average 11.07th in the competition, Richmond have finished 11.8th

        Take into account the full 17 year history of the Dockers (obviously excluding this year) and those numbers are reverse with Freo 11.29th, Richmond 11.12th.

        Hardly a success story.

  • Not sure about this decision but I need one of Hanley,Grimes,Shaw, Heppell,Enright or Johnson.

    Any tips?

  • I don’t comment much but to Brodie94TheRude.

    You clearly have some serious issues. Your biased towards Fremantle and M. Johnson – and this (in your own opinion) makes YOU plain stupid. Also you say Ridley’s posts are annoying yet have you ever re-read yours?? Finally the “sight” of your name on this “site” makes me sick “bcos ur” only input is negative.