Tbetta’s Bullets: Round 14

  • The Good Old Days

Wow. What a difference a full squad makes! I don’t care what anyone says; scoring in the lofty heights of 2300+ is so much more satisfying than scoring 1600 and finding ways to justify it as an acceptable score. And in the end, that’s what we all play it for: enjoyment!

It was a huge week across the board in Round 14. There was an unheard of 75 players to make it to the ton this week, including 28 with 120+ and 10 heroes with 130 or more. It’s weeks like these where it seems that you’re more praying to avoid low scores than you are cheering on big scores – I’m not sure I like it from that perspective (especially if you have a unique like Griffen or Sloane, for instance), but I certainly like seeing an inflated score at the end of the round, if only for visual gratification.

Of course, the Captain call was huge this week, with the Swan delivering some real blows to Ablett in their fantasy rivalry. Now that they’re both fit, who to crown will be a huge call every week for the foreseeable future – as an owner of both, I kind of envy those who have one or the other, just to avoid the ulcer-inducing decision weighing you down each week!

 

  • Makers and Breakers

As Calvin said on DT Talk Live this week, Swan and Ablett were almost inseparable. The numbers and form were pristine for both, making it a real flip of the coin. You’d be a very happy coach if it landed Swanny-side up for you, given he exploded for 172 while Ablett struggled to 102. He’s now 6 points clear as the highest averaging player this season, an incredible feat. It’ll be hard to look past him with the Captaincy this week, given he’s averaged 148.7 in his last three matches.

In a week like this, when everyone is scoring well, it’s the unique players that set your week apart. Those who haven’t fully upgraded their midfield, or have Pendles languishing on their bench, may have faced the shaky prospect of starting Sam Gibson this week. The mature-age ball-magnet (such a cliché these days…) really stepped it up this week, avoiding a vest and smashing out a 110. His JS should be strong for the next couple of weeks, especially with the Kangaroos in rare form.

Two popular under-priced midfielders at seasons start would now be unique 6th midfielders as we near the end of upgrade season. I’m talking about Barlow and Hayes, of course. Hayes had a stand-out game, filling the stat sheet in almost every category for a total of 122. Meanwhile, Barlow continued his outstandingly consistent form, notching his 6th ton on the burst with a gratuitous 120. Fun fact: Barlow has scored 8 hundreds this season, but this is the only one to reach 110 or more points!

Jamie Elliot, take a bow. I probably didn’t give him his due over the MBRs, where he was fantastic in delivering exactly what we needed from him – JS and 60 points. Now, when the going is a little less tough, he’s still going a great click, scoring 95 in Round 14. A shot in the arm for his job security for those who had him benched, and incredible for those who were sweating on him after Chapman withdrew late with a groin issue.

 

A few weeks ago, Travis Cloke reached a fork in the road. He was coming off a horror game in which he managed just 24 points, and his BE was in danger of exceeding the double-ton. Coaches saw value in picking him up knowing what he can do, and those who took the plunge were rewarded with a 112, 86 and 85. He took a huge backwards step in Round 14 though, scoring just 42 when he looked like he was going to remove those dirty basement scores from his game.

The next two up in the Breakers are the Shaw ‘brothers’, Sam and Heath. Sam (32) may have actually scored by half time this week, but we were relying on him in the absence of a few popular mid-pricers and he gave us nothing. He can gladly slide back onto the bench, which is lucky, because he probably won’t get a gig in Round 15. Heath (59) reverted back to his old ‘SeeShaw’ ways, after an imposter notched a three-peat of 110+ scores not too long ago.

With most teams set elsewhere, many ruck lines are under renovation at the moment. Someone asked me last week, “Who should I upgrade out of Kreuzer and Giles”, a suggestion to which I scoffed at. 30 seconds later I was erasing my reply and silently apologising for my outburst after I actually checked the stats. Kreuzer has been a slowly sinking ship lately and he’ll always struggle to justify selection if he continues to dish up a score like 53 once a month.

Jed Adcock sneaks in here purely for his lacklustre first half. He showed just how hard it must be to handle a tag (a new wave of kudos to those guys who do it week in, week out) with just 15 points at the main change. To his credit, he saved his game with some brilliant junk-time (the whole 2nd half, really) accumulation of the footy and finished on 65. It could have been much worse.

 

  • The Luck Factor

One of the most critical ingredients for a successful Dream Team is, and always will be, luck. You can set the perfect squad on the surest path for Round 1, but after that, luck largely fills the sails of your fantasy boat.

THE MBRs

A big criticism of the way DreamTeam has been set up this year regards the byes and the increased effect that luck has on your team over those three weeks. I was a big advocate of working to a bye structure over the pre-season, but you may as well have gone in blind with the injuries and suspensions that occurred over the MBR period. This is part of the reason that I believe the MBRs need to be tackled differently by the DT powers-that-be to avoid alienating their entire target audience – the casual DTers hated the donuts, and the fanatical DTers hate it when their knowledge and nous aren’t rewarded.

There was a fair bit of discussion in last week’s Bullets about this point, and the main argument against was that it’s all relative. The representatives for this view went on to explain that yes, 1600 is a terrible score – but if the average was 1500 that week, then it’s still a good week relatively, despite how many donuts you had. This much is true – but it’s where the donuts come from that hurt. Many coaches employed sound bye structures and trading strategies but were just plain unlucky. And that matters, because bad luck over the MBRs is crushing.

Every team has its ups and downs over the course of a season, with the variations of the scores and availabilities of individual players in each team compounding to give the illusion of form or momentum. That’s what we’ve come to expect, and as every team goes through this over season, it all comes out in the wash. If your team is hit with bad luck selection wise (I’m talking injury, suspension, rookies out of the side, etc.) in a normal round, then most of the time you can cover that thanks to the emergency system. This means that often, instead of losing 100 points, you might only lost 40, for instance. If you hit that unlucky patch over the MBRs, however, there is no remedy – and that’s what makes the MBRs a three week period where planning might help, but is ultimately ruled by luck.

WEEK-TO-WEEK

Every season it seems that our rookies are out to get us. How many times have you looked to fill your M6 slot, had three similar rookies to choose from and managed to pick the worst option of the lot? Every bloody time, I’m sure of it. In fact, I’m almost certain that to win the FJ Cruiser, you have to get incredibly lucky with on-field selections, as well as your Captain choices.

When you crunch the numbers, you realise just how critical these 50-50 decisions can be. Captaining Ablett over Swan: 70 points. Starting Sam Shaw over Ellis: 18 points. Playing Horsley over Gibson: 51 points. Backing in Devon Smith over Elliot: 30 points. Add them all up, and you’re left with 169 points less than you could have earned with the exact same squad. It just took a little luck.

As I said, luck will always play a play in DT, and so it should. AFL teams are hit by injuries at inopportune times, just as I’m sure they could be better served in the heat of battle with slightly different personnel than the one they chose. But, in the end, any rule change for the MBRs that makes ‘luck’ less influential in DT is fine by me.

 

  • Cheap and Unusual

Upgrade season is finally coming to a close, with most coaches down to 8 trades or less and boasting quasi-complete squads. It’s the perfect time to re-evaluate your trading strategy for the run home. Putting aside 4 trades for LTIs/finals and it’s likely you only have 1 or 2 upgrades left in you. Some have more players to upgrade than upgrades left though, so what’s the solution? A unique cheapie, that’s what. Here’s a list of a few risky unique picks who could give you a boost heading into DT finals:

Pearce Hanley – $377,900 Defender – 85.9 avg, 4.3% owned

With a BE of -1, now’s the perfect time to scoop up the talented Irishman. He’s scored 134 and 120 in the last two weeks, and with most coaches preferring his teammate Jed Adcock, you’re almost guaranteed a P.O.D each game over the run home. Don’t forget that the Lions have a favourable run home, either.

Shannon Hurn – $359,200 Defender – 80.3 avg, 12.0%

I was very surprised to see Hurn with such a (relatively) high competition-wide ownership, although I think it’s a bit of a skew figure as I haven’t come up against one team with ‘The Leg’ in it. This is surprising in itself, because he is a very competent DTer. His consistency is exceptional, scoring 73 or more in each of his last 8 matches.

Michael Barlow – $452,700 Midfielder – 93.5 avg, 4.7%

I singled him out in the Makers this week, but he deserves another mention here. Yes, he was once a little cheaper, but he is still priced miles below what he’s capable of and what he is poised to do over the 2nd half of the season. There’s been a lot of coverage about how Barlow’s now finally playing ‘pain-free’, and we’re starting to see the results in his 5-round average of 106.4.

Andrew Swallow – $434,500 Midfielder – 99.5 avg, 4.1%

Spitter has forever been on the periphery of the DT elite – consistently producing big scores too often interspersed by frustratingly average totals. It’s been a similar story for him this season as he fights tight tags and fluctuating team form. Now that the Roos seem to have clicked, will Swallow finally display some consistency? Could be worth the risk at this price.

Daniel Cross – $396,500 Midfielder – 91.6 avg, 0.9%

Okay, here’s one from way left field. If you’re looking for someone under 400k who can boost their average considerably, Cross could be your guy. He’s currently under-priced thanks to two poor weeks on the trot a few rounds back, but he’s been back on track with a three-round average of 95.7. He’s a former DT gun, averaging 103.2 a game as recently as 2010 – could he make a return to form?

Jonathon Griffin – $362,400 Ruck – 78.7 avg, 1.2%

Looking to upgrade your 2nd ruckman? Well, with Sandi out for the short-term, Griffin could be that unique boost to power you up the rankings in the run home. Since the 211 has been out, Griffin has averaged 94 points from three games, a fantastic return for someone at his price. It’s not without risk obviously, with Sandi tipped to return in Round 22, right around the critical DT finals.

Ben McEvoy – $387,900 Ruck – 84.1 avg, 1.2%

He’s cheap, he’s unique and he’s set for a big finish to the season. His Round 14 score of 113 was his first ton for the season, but at his price, he doesn’t have to score 100 every week to justify selection. Whether McEvoy can stay fit will be the litmus test for his worth in the run home.

Shaun Higgins – $353,400 Mid/Fwd – 76.7 avg, 2.7%

He should probably be on your ‘Never Again’ list, but in desperate times… He hasn’t topped the ton all season, but he’s been slowly increasing his output over the past few weeks with a 90 point average in that time. And, amazingly, Higgins has played all 13 games so far this season. It’s a huge risk, but you can guarantee it’ll shake things up a little.

Colin Sylvia – $305,900 Mid/Fwd – 58.5 avg, 1.1%

It’s been a long time coming, but has Sylvia finally pulled his finger out? Colon’s season numbers are nauseating, but in his defence, Melbourne are pathetic and he hasn’t been fully fit all year. He’s scored 84 and 100 in the last two weeks though, which could signal that he’s turned a corner? At his price, he’s even worth a look as M7/F8 cover.

Well there you go. Just a handful of players who could give you that unique edge for a little less coin – but do you have the balls to take the risk?! Let me know in the comments, and suggest any uniques you’re considering for the run home.

 

  • Burst fire

There are a few little nuts and bolts that aren’t big enough for their own Bullet, but are worth mentioning anyway. Here are a few tidbits out of Round 14.

  • The Kangaroos have really rallied over the last few weeks, if the ‘flame’ icon on the DT website is anything to go by. So I glazed over the stats and sure enough, they’ve averaged 1631 points in their last 3 matches, more than 100 points their season average. Get on the Roos!
  • Over the pre-season, I put together a piece for the Deck of DT on a certain player, none other than Chris Masten. Well, here’s an overdue shout-out to all the Haters (you know who you are – if you don’t, check out the comments here). He’s averaged 90.2 after 14 rounds, just a shade beneath the 91 I projected for him pre-season, to which I copped a fair whack. He’s also shot up $120k since season’s start. A win for the mid-pricer.
  • Nick Riewoldt had his first failure against the Roos in his last 12 starts against them, scoring just 47 on Sunday. In his previous 7 matches against them he averaged 124.4 points, including every score 99 or above. Incredible stats really.
  • Dayne Zorko, despite his 69 point ‘failure’, has cracked the $400k barrier in a record time of 7 games. It’s a fork in the road now for Zorko – will he forge his own path and continue to average 90+ for the rest of the year, or will he tire and fade away like Magner and Horsely before him?
  • Brendan Goddard is slowly etching his name into my DT shit list this season. He hasn’t scored more than 81 in any of his last three starts, which is really not what you paid $474k for at this beginning of the year. What frustrates me the most is that I picked him to drop off this year and started without him, then was swindled into picking him up after he had three 90+ scores to kick off 2012. Oh, and now he’s been rubbed out for the next fortnight! Not happy, mate.
  • Marty Clarke obviously doesn’t like being dropped. The Irishman went off with a bang in the Pies VFL side, collecting a reported 31 touches and a couple of sausage rolls after his first omission of the year. Nothing like a first-up BOG performance to see you promoted.

 

 

  • Tbetta’s Tweets

This is the question on many coaches lips, I’d say; especially those who haven’t fully upgraded just yet. One rookie on the bubble is Tom Campbell, who’d be a perfect guy to get in for Orren Stephenson at his rookie price, provided he keeps his spot in the team this week. Apart from that, it’s slim pickings.

If you’re absolutely determined to upgrade though, you have two options. Trade in a basement-priced rookie, and pray that you don’t have to rely on them to play at any point in the next 10 weeks. Option 2 is to trade in a player that you think has a decent chance of debuting over the next few weeks, and sacrificing that extra $10k or so. It’s tough call, but in the end it’s one you have to make either way.

Personally, I like someone like Mark Baguley – from all reports, he’s in the mix to be promoted, is basement priced at $85,800 and is a Mid-Def. If you’re looking for someone who’s a fair chance to play in the near future, check out guys like Tom Mitchell, or those who have already played like Elliot Yeo or Jordan Murdoch.

 

Wait, there’s isn’t one…? Well, it’s a no-contest for me: Ivan Maric. What he’s managed to do at his starting price and perceived ability makes him the pick of the season, no doubt. He’s the only non-rookie in the Top 9 biggest price-gainers this season, 3rd overall with a $225,300 windfall. He’s also managed to average 103 points per game (a whopping 44 point increase on his 2011 average!) whilst dropping below 85 just once.

Absolute lock.

 

Amazing stat! If I didn’t have the numbers in front of me then I would have said it wasn’t possible… You’d only be able to do it with a heap of either goals or hit-outs, surely. 20 minutes of research proved fruitless – I couldn’t locate anyone who’s even gotten close! Go Lobbe.

 

  • Round 15

Frankly, I waffled on enough this week, so I’ll keep this Bullet brief. Keep any eye on the injury front: Franklin, Sexton and Shiel are already confirmed out for this week, while Chapman and Pendles should return. The MRP has also rules out Goddard for two (as I mentioned earlier), and if you are unlucky to harbour Jackson, Guerra, T. Walker or Crameri as uniques then they’re all out for multiple weeks.

Sidenote – DT Talk Tbetta League is up to 7th overall! Great effort by all those involved.

Good Luck!

 

 

 

Tweet me at @Tbetta9 for all things fantasy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

94 Comments

  • day out for Marty Clarke 301 touches! LOL

  • Great work Tbetta! Brilliant article, i’ll have to look at getting Clarke back in after 301 touches! ;)

  • Ahhhh Michael Barlow, oh how i love thee. Hitting his straps

    Wow cant get over Lobbe, 104 with only 7 disposals.

  • Another awesome article Tbetta, love your work!

    Almost finished my team but need one more upgrade in my midfield and backline.
    My current mids and defenders:

    Goddard, Lids, Birch, Heppell, Waters, Carrots, HARGRAVE (Shaw, Darley)
    GAJ, Swan, Boyd, Watson, Thompson, SHIEL (McDonald, Gibson)

    Which one of the following should I do?:
    1. Hargrave -> Scotland
    2. Darley -> Hanley
    3. Shiel -> Mitchell/Rockliff etc.
    4. Shiel -> Pendles (next week, or 2 weeks later)

    NOTE:
    Hargrave’s BE is 90
    Scotland’s BE is 75
    Shiel is out with injury for 4 weeks
    Pendles is confirmed to play this week and will bottom out in price in 2 weeks time (around $480k)

  • Nice work Tbetta, but why did you have to tell everyone about Hanley! I’ve had him all season and it’s starting to bear fruit, and then you have to go and spoil the party.

    On a side note, a lot of people would have pencilled in Carrazzo this week, myself included. I wonder if people will now take Hanley at a similar price as a POD?

    • Carrazo vs hanley… You’d be stupid to go against carrots there haha

      • Tempted to agree with you there. I’ve had Hanley all year so my choice is Carrots / not Carrots. Pretty sure I’ll be trading somehow to get Carrazzo,

        • Not sure there is going to be so much joy for Hanley owners for the remainder of the year.
          His big scores (5 x100+) have ALL come against the weaker side (GC, Mel x2, WB, GWS) and a 96 against North when they were playing very poorly.
          With that i can only see 3 good scores (against GC, Port & WB……maybe a 4th against a depleted Saints side), to come from the last 9 games.

  • Thoughts on Jarryn Geary? Scored 101in his return this week. And only costing around 200K. has a pretty bad history though

    • Stay away. Was on fire early, tricked me into thinking he was a legitimate option, then proceeded to spit in my face with a barrage of 40-odd scores. Stay well away.

  • Insightful article but I don’t like your possible recommendation of picking up the consistently unsatisfying Colin Sylvia. As a tigers fan myself I had Ivan Maric in the preseason and on the last day before round 1 lockout swapped him to Shane Mumford, each time I see his name and DT together I RAGE! Also beginning with Billie Smedts instead of Marty Clarke was frustrating, I’ve done the math and with those two changes alone from my starting team I would be in the top 100 instead of 1,883! And three trades better off because I went Mumford>Sandilands>McIntosh>Cox FMDT!

    NOBODY IS READING THIS BUT THOSE REGRETFUL DECISIONS ARE MOST DEFINITELY THE BLURST THINGS IN DREAMTEAM!

    • I’m reading this. Though I have to disagree with Sylvia in certain cases.

      Say you have 10+ trades and a F8 / M7 at about 300k who had probably reached their ceiling, ie a Devon Smith. Why not use the trade to get someone who has a much greater scoring output to serve as back up for those pesky 2-3 week injuries at this stage of the season? I know who I would rather have.

    • No worries – simply just don’t pick up Sylvia then?

      Thought I gave it enough of a disclaimer.

  • Was great to see a team full of green dots last weekend. Cheers Tbetta, another sensational writeup.

  • Good read, captaining Ablett over Sean cost 140points, not 70. I know this all too well.

  • So happy you dedicated a fair bit to the role luck plays in this game.

    So often on this site, the arrogant tell us that luck plays an insignificant part overall, but I beg to differ.

    Sure skill & research will get you in the top 5000, even top 2000. But luck will get you the keys to the car.

    This is relevant no matter where you are ranked. A 10000 rank now could easily be top 2000 with luck on their side.

    Great article Champo.

  • worst rookie 50/50 of the season: sexton over gibson. cost me nearly 100 pts .thought that since sexton was named in the backline and gibson 4th on the bench that sexton should get a few touches and gibbo would be the sub. how wrong i was

  • Great article Tbetta!

    I’ve already upgraded Clarke to Carrazzo this week and I have 4 trades left after that.

    I have 3 options:
    1. Downgrade D.Smith to Dellolio, swap Beams (from mids) and Zorko then upgrade Shiel to Rockliff.
    2. Downgrade D.Smith to Murdoch, swap Beams and Zorko then upgrade Shiel to Boyd.
    3. Save trades, I don’t think 2 trades would be enough for the rest of the season!

    So pretty much it’s Zorko + 2 trades vs Rockliff/Boyd.

    This my team:
    DEF: Deledio, Goddard, Waters, Carrazzo, M.Johnson, Birchall, H.Shaw (S.Shaw, Spurr)
    MID: Swan, Ablett, Watson, Pendlebury, Selwood, Beams (Shiel, Gibson)
    RUCK: Maric, Ryder (Redden, Campbell)
    FWD: Sidebottom, S.Johnson, Robinson, Franklin, Martin, Cloke, Zorko (Treloar, D.Smith)

    It would be great if you could help me out!

    • good looking team mate.
      id go Rockcliff but if the carnage is wat it was like in the first half of the season i would hold trades.
      how much cash have u got in the bank?? can u swap beams and zorko and trade out shiel for rockcliff?? that could be another option..just depends how much cash u got in the bank.

    • Save the trades. 4 left means just cop poor scores unfortunately.

    • Save your trades mate. You can always upgrade later in the season if you have any trades left!

    • Nah I’ve only got 21k, looks like I’ll just hold trades. Thanks guys
      I’m ranked 14681 because of poor captain choices, just shows how much luck is involved…

  • Why is Sexton Out

    • Hip Surgery, gone for the season. got him sitting on my mid reserves now i dont know wat im ganna do with him :/ haha

    • Sexton requires hip surgery, he’s out for the rest of the season.

  • DEF: Delidio, Goddard, Waters, Birchell, Heppell, Hargrave, Sam Shaw, (Townsend, Spurr)

    MID: Swan, Ablett, Stanton, Boyd, Thompson, Beams, (Gibson, Sexton)

    RUCK: Cox, Giles, (Redden, Campbell)

    FWD: Franklin, Sidebottom, Robinson, Dangerfield, Martin, Cloke, Zorko, (Pfierrier, Black)

    7 trades left and $223,900 in the bank.

    I want to get carrazzo in for either Hargrave or Townsend. i was thinking of keeping hargrave and trading townsend but it wont leave alot of cash after the trade. By trading hargrave (which would leave me with about $100,000 odd i think) i would have to play sam shaw or townsend on the field… :/

    Some other options ive thought of is:
    Dowgrading Pfierrier to Murdoch

    Trading Travis cloke out but for who..im not quite sure.. :/
    want to get maric but ill have to hold on that trade.

    Its looking like ill be doing 2 trades this week just a matter of picking the right players to take out and bring in.., im just about settled with my team. but as i said im not keen on cloke being in my side but i probably need to focus on my defence more.

    Sorry its a tad long..

    Thoughts on my options and overall team would be much appreciated??

    Cheers

    • If it’s an important week for you (your in the top 100 or your versing someone who’s close to you on the ladder) then I’d trade Townsend probably. But if not, go Hargrave…
      I wouldn’t trade out Cloke, it would be a sideways trade, his 3 weeks before has been good.
      I’d focus on getting Maric in instead.
      Could you please have a look at my post 2 above?

    • Forget about playing Shaw or Townsend on the field. And forget about trading Cloke for now; you can trade him later in the season if you still have trades left.

      Townsend to Carrots is the best trade, which leaves you with 6 trades that you should save for LTI’s. It’s not really a problem that you don’t have much cash left after that trade, because if a LTI hits, you’ll side-ways trade to another similar priced player.

  • Reckon Tommy Couch will get a game this year Tbetta? I’m starting to think it’s pretty unlikely since there’s not a lot more he can do and the Dees cannot get any worse than they were a few weeks ago.

    • hes been put back on the rookie list so i wouldnt think he will play..

    • Put off the rookie list, no games this year. Mark Nield s**ts me soooo much. “Oh, he plays the same role as Magner.” Well Magner is one of your best players, you twat! You’d know that if you didn’t make him a tagger every week!!!
      Far out.

  • great article tbetta!! worth the wait!

    Heres my team have 3 trades left and $18,000 in the bank!
    need to carrazzo in! but dont know what to do?? please help!

    DEF: Scotland, Delidio, Goddard, Waters, Birchall, Hargrave, Darley (S.Shaw, Spurr)

    MID: Swan, Ablett, Thompson, Boyd, Pendles, Watson,( Pfieffer, Williams)

    RUCK: Maric, Cox (Redden, Campbell)

    FWDS: Buddy, Sidebottom, Robbo, Dangerfield, Martin,Zorko, Beams (Dickson, Zaha)

    • I’d save those three trades for LTIs.

      But if you really wanted Carrots, downgrade 5fa to a playing rook (see if you could go Gibson), upgrade Darley to Carrots

      • Even if you downgraded 5fer to Baguley, you still don’t have enough cash to trade Darley to Carrots.

        It looks like you’ve overloaded in the forward line. Consider trading Zaha out to someone like M. Williams, who should be good enough for bench cover, and the upgrade Darley to Carrots. Of course this assumes you’ll play Zorro as F7.

    • Save your trades pal… you will appreciate it in the long run when the LTIs hit.

  • Mentioned McEvoy on Saturday. Will give him another week but if he gets 100 again he almost has to come in for Giles. Sooo cheap and was a lock for plenty of teams in round 1, if he isnt a fallen premium what is?!

    Im stuck on my final backline upgrade this round, wanted Scotland but Im 15k short. Shattered… not sure whether to punt on Shaw or Hanley. BJ out for two weeks isnt great news, means possibly two out of S Shaw, Ellis and Darley will need to play if I hold off for Scotland… tough decision… Rids, u around mate I need your guidance!! haha

    • I’d get Hanley in, he’s got a soft draw coming up and he’s improving every week. I’ve got H.Shaw and he’s so annoying! I’d start Darley, Ellis, S.Shaw in that order.

    • Hey Ike

      I am thinking Darley and Ellis will both be definite starters this week so you will have enough cover. If I was you I would wait for Scotland. He is a proven. I hate the rollercoaster that is Shaw. Hanley has impressed me over the past couple of weeks. I was blown away that Magner was tagging Adcock and not Hanley who actually can destroy a team with his run and carry. I have a feeling there will be someone on him big time this week and I am interested in how he handles a tag.

      As you said, very tough decision. I am sure people will tell you that Scotland has a court case coming up but I really don’t see the Blues suspending one of their really good players in their situation. Best of luck mate.

    • Scotland is a DT jet, hold out if you can and hope for his price to swing down (which probably won’t be this weekend as his BE is 82)… Shaw is painful, a bit like Hargrave although with a higher ceiling… his inconsistency can be infuriating. Hanley is an interesting one. Has strung together a couple of good games, but like above, I wonder how he’ll go with a tag on him…

  • Great read Tbetta, you aren’t waffling on, it’s all very interesting and informative.

    Mark Baguley if a MID/DEF not a MID/FOR

    Picking him up now in the mids would be good for DPP as most teams have Goddard, Delids, Scotland and Carrots.

    Certainly will help if avoiding a trade/donut later in the year.

    • Thanks for the correction – knew he was DEF but have been so used to writing MID/FWD this year that it must have just willed itself onto the page…

  • tbetta should get a share in the revenue. Does so much more work than Roy and Calvin.

    • Shut up Colonel, you troll.

    • All of the article writers should IMO. The vast majority of this websites hits are for its articles, which I ASSUME, are provided free of charge.

      The DTT boys have dropped off a hell of alot over the past 2 years, which I can understand and am not criticising, but at the end of the day, I don’t think they are any longer the major contributors to the website.

      In case the DTT boys read this, I’m not trying to hate on you, I fully appreciate what you’ve provided for us over the years, and I’m totally for you guys getting a slap on the back after all the hard work. What I am saying is, the website has now gone beyond you boys, and although I have no doubt you put huge amounts of time, effort and money into running the servers, uploading the vids/articles etc, from the outside it appears as if the most significant contributors to the sight are the boys who post the articles and keep the chat flowing on the boards and facebook.

      I guess ultimately, I think the boys who put up the intellectual property with the articles during the seasons, off season and pre season, shouldn’t be forgotten in the future. They’ve all helped to build your business, please don’t forget them when you have retired in a few years time :P

      ****Above article was spoken without any knowledge of how much love the DTT boys give to the cats who put the effort in around here, so may totally have been spoken out of my arse (as per usual, many posters might think). Just an opinion, please don’t give me the chop, Chop.

      P.S: Yeah, The Colonel, you used to be cool.

      • Jesus, can’t half tell I got on the red wine last night. Talking out of my arse.

        Wish there was a delete post function………..

    • Thanks for your concern!

      Where we can, we look after the writers. Believe it or not, the site doesn’t make a hell of a lot of money. Without doing a big audit (well, our tax records do show it), by the time the server fees come out, there isn’t much left – this business pretty much runs af a loss! We write assistant coach and SC gold articles which has obviously taken up a lot of our dedicated DT time but that gives us some reward. In that, Tbetta and Chook are writing articles this year to get them some pocket money too.

      This thing has evolved a lot over the years and we’re working towards trying to make something more of it. If you have followed stuff with us, you might remember that we made a pilot last year for a show (that wasn’t cheap, I can tell you that!) and the dream/goal is to have a site running with that and who do you reckon we want to take along for the ride there?

      Anyway, we massively appreciate what every contributor does for this site… I wish I had more time for it myself to be more public on here, but there is a lot of behind the scenes stuff that goes on that people don’t see.

      Hopefully one day we can reach our goal. Thanks for the support.

  • best fwd whos got best JS under 188,000$$??

    • Sam Day or Adam Kennedy. They won’t score you many points though.

      • Ben Griffiths looks like he has some scoring potential. Not sure on his JS though, but played the last 5 games in a row.

    • Dellolio or Patton I reckon, Murdoch is a chance to keep his spot as well.

      • Patton has to have the best JS of any player with less than 5 games I would have thought.
        And he only went up $1000 last week. ha ha.

  • Awesome article mate. Always a great read.

    I’m one of the unfortunate people to have both Giles and Kreuzer. The issues of selection and who to upgrade out of the two has become my main team issue lately.

    My thoughts are to hold onto Giles for the moment and upgrade him if he fades in the next few weeks. As for Kreuzer, I’m just going to hold onto him for now and see what happens.

    Liking the thought of Hargrave -> Hanley as well (Already own Carrazzo). Considering.

  • Do I really need Carrots that much?

    Backline: Deledio, Goddard, Grimes, Johnson, Dempsey, Waters, Suckling (Mohr, Shaw)

    The likely ones to trade are Dempsey and Grimes but I consider them both premos and they didn’t do anything wrong so why punish them?

    • Yeah after Dempsey’s big game you dont need him, however if you have heaps of trades and you really want him you could upgrade one of your rookies on the bench in your defence or midfield to give you added depth

  • @Tbetta
    “Sam (32) may have actually scored by half time this week, but we were relying on him in the absence of a few popular mid-pricers and he gave us nothing. He can gladly slide back onto the bench, which is lucky, because he probably won’t get a gig in Round 15.”

    Sam Shaw will line up on the weekend provided he isn’t injured.
    Someone has to stop the Hoff.

  • Hi Guys and gals,

    My team is almost complete.
    Gotta get in Carrots to complete the backline of;
    Lids, Godds, Waters, Scots, Lake, Shaw.
    But who should I kick out?
    Darley or Ellis?
    Ellis has better JS, so I’d contemplate keeping him, but his scoring potential is also less… Which should I go for?

    Also, last week I didn’t have the trades to get in Gibson.
    Should I try to get him this week (swap for Old Mac), given his scoring potential?

    • Even though he averages less points, I’d keep Ellis. Touch wood, but his JS is rock solid… a little more so than Darley, who will play lots of games but not necessarily every week. You know what will happen… as soon as you need him, Sheeds will give him a rest.

      In my opinion, better to be definitely guaranteed 55 odd points each week than to be possibly guaranteed 65 points each week.

      Good luck!

  • Ouch just found out about Sexton…..no point in downgrading him as he is still relatively cheap so I’m just hoping my F9 position doesn’t need to be called upon for the remainder of the season

  • For anyone looking for a really cheap mid, Nathan Van Berlo will be VERY cheap soon.

    Unfortunately I got him in based on an average of 120 in his last 5 games last year. He hasn’t given me the value I was hoping for (an average of over 100)

    However, before his score of 8 on the weekend (due to concussion) his average was in the 90s.

    He is currently priced 372,800 with a break even of 185 and projected price drop of $48,000 next week.

    So next week Van Berlo could be priced at 324,800, and ignoring his concussion affected score of 8, has an average in the 90s

    Any one who is strapped for cash or looking for someone with good job security to be thier 7th mid, could be a good option

    • True, VB would make a great M7, but he shouldn’t be thought of as a Top 6 Mid.

      If only I had enough trades to justify the luxury of having him warm my pine…

  • Goddard -> Carrazzo
    T. Addams -> J. Elliot

    So sick of Goddards sh*t and missed the boat on Elliot and he seems to be some sort of the real deal.
    Also leaves me with 81k.

    Otherwise I’m really beating around the bush trying to offload all the other budgers like Spurr and Sexton.
    Drastic times call for drastic measures.

  • I have 7 trades left with $100k and I can go down 2 paths:

    1.
    Hargrave -> Carrazzo (leaves 6 trades for injuries/finals)

    -DEF cover= (Darley, Shaw)
    -MID cover= (McDonald, Gibson)
    -F7 and cover= Zorko (Adams, Hall)

    2.
    S Shaw -> Carrazzo, Hall -> $85k rook this week
    McDonald -> Goodes next week/2 weeks time (leaves 4 trades for injuries/finals)

    -DEF cover= (Hargrave, Darley)
    -MID cover= (Adams, Gibson)
    -F7 and cover= Goodes (Zorko, $85k rook)

    So it’s pretty much 6 trades with poor cover and play Zorko or 4 trades with very solid cover.

    • Interesting. I’m normally an advocate of holding on to your trades with gritted teeth. That said, I love the look of your option 2… having rock solid cover in Hargrave and Zorko, as well as sneaking Goodesy onto the field… (and we all know what he’s capable of doing in the second half of the season.)

      4 trades would be the minimum amount that I’d recommend to cover LTI’s… so I say go for it!

      Whatever you decide, good luck!

  • Gonna have to keep fkn clarke as d7 with morris and shaw as d8 and d9, prob not the best backup!

  • Not all bad news for me; buddy and goddard move to the bench and on come Dusty Martin & Christian Howard. Loving having decent cover #important

    • I’m with ya there. I have porps and Gibson as cover. I don’t know if they will repeat thier weekends efforts but I’ll be happy with 80 from each of them :)

    • WTF???
      Oh hang on, for a minute there I thought you had ‘Christian Howard’ and ‘decent bench cover’ in the same sentence……..then i saw the full stop!!!
      ;-)

    • old dusty has let you down my friend….

  • Btw, LOVE the call on Micky B, allowed a spare trade to sideways a premium over the byes, dropped him for Rocky, then picked him back up again the week later, and I honestly think he’s going to finish in the top 10 mids in the 2nd half of the season.

    Hugely appreciative that so many people dropped him oer the byes to pick up Thommo etc, because he’s going to average 110 for the rest of the season, and he was priced at less than 90 during the byes.

    Micky B and Rocky were _THE_ premium mids to bring in over the byes.

  • Which two trades do I do this week?

    Bugg/Goddard –> Carrots/Hanley

    or Orren –> T Campbell and get some extra cash?

    Both carrots/hanley very low BE

  • Def: Goddard, Delidio, Heppell, Birchall, Waters, Hargrave, Ellis (Bootsma, Darley)

    Mid: Pendles, Boyd, Ablett, Thompson, Mitchell, Swan (Gibson, Sexton)

    Ruc: Goldy, Ryder (Stephenson,Redden)

    Fwd: Sidey, Buddy, Robinson, Zaharakis, Martin, Beams, Dangerfield (Hall,Zorko )

    30,000 in the bank 5 trades left

    I was thinking:

    Hall to Murdoch/Frank OR should i just get carrots and keep gravy as D7 and hold my trades for the rest of the year
    Gravy to Carrots

    Later on in the season with 115,000 go:

    Ellis/Darley to Johnson

  • Wouldn’t Jarrad Redden be the better option to get rid of. He won’t be getting much more game time with Lobbe and Renouf now in.

    Whereas in Geelong well Dawson Simpson is hardly any good and Orren could come in and go out any week.

    • Agree.

      Redden 4th in line
      Orren probably equal 2nd in line

      Are people that desperate for $19k???

  • Going Ellis > Carrots this week. Got a lot of leftover cash so thinking of:
    J. Cameron > Dusty or Hurley. Richmond have a good run to finals but Hurley is starting to hit some form, plus Crameri is suspended so Bombers will rely on him more. Not to mention he’s a POD.
    Dusty is a bit more reliable though, but everyone has him!

  • This from the Lions reserves wrap Sam Docherty had plenty of the ball again, and is getting closer to making his senior debut by the week.

  • Does Jordan Murdoch have proper Job security considering the return of chappy. He definitely played better than guthrie and horlin smith but is that security

  • What’s your thoughts on Hibberd? His last 5 matches, apart from the 28 where he was subbed and injured, he’s averaged 90 and he’s only $325,900 but haven’t seen him mentioned

  • Backs: Deledio, Goddard, Broughton Grimes, Heppel, Hargrave, Ellis (Darley, Shaw)
    Mids: Boyd, Thompson, Ebert, Ablett, Rockliff, Selwood (Treloar, Gibson)
    Ruck: Goldstein, Griffin (Longer, Stephenson)
    Fwd: Sidebottom, Beams, Franklin, Robinson, Dangerfield, Martin, Lewis (Zorko, Patton)

    I have 6 trades left and am wanting to go Stephenson to Campbell, Ellis to Carrazzo. This will leave me with $82,400 for future upgrades / restings and LTI’s. Is 4 trades for 8 rounds enough considering I don’t need anymore more luxury upgrades until finals. Coming first in 1st in my league and haven’t lost a game. Cheers.

    • I reckon 4 is the bare minimum you want to keep in hand… and the $87K will come in handy if and when the dreaded LTIs happen.

      Do you have to get rid of Ellis? He has better JS than Darley or S Shaw… do you have enough cash to trade one of these guys for Carrazzo?

  • yeah, thats a picture of Brodie Smith, not Sam Shaw