Good Trade, Bad Trade: Round 14

Well it’s back to normality this week. We will have a full(ish) squad to choose from and wont have to worry about purchasing family packs of donuts for our teams to feast on at half time. Some people will be looking to complete their teams, while others are trying to scoop up what is left of their team off the floor and try and salvage something this season. What players are in vogue this week? Who has run their race? What’s a good trading strategy for the rest of the season?

 

Players in vogue:

Andrew Carrazzo DEF ($384,400, b/e 131) – Carrots has been traded in by 7.33% of Dream Teamers so far this week. Has a projected of 82, which is probably a bit undervalued for him, considering he has not scored under 90 in a game where he wasn’t injured. Returned against the eagles with a very nice 118, has had another week of rest and should be fresh for the last 10 games of the season.  Is likely to be cheaper next week so no rush to get him this week.

Tom Campbell RUC ($85,800) – The young ruckman has been snapped up by 7.17% of people after an impressive 70 points first up against the Fitzroy Brisbane lions. Is probably still 4th in the pecking order of rucks at the Bulldogs, and was only keeping Will Minson’s spot warm and is likely going to be bench fodder for the rest of the season. On the flip side, he could get some more game time as a forward (Not many others doing that well up there for the Bulldogs) and if you do trade him in, he’ll make you some cash for rucks like Orren Stephenson (the most popular trade so far this week)

Sam Gibson ($85,800, b/e -28) – Gibson is finally on the bubble and comes in to 4.89%  of teams this week. Had a vested 17 on the weekend which did his job security or cash generation no favours. Is likely to go the distance in our teams form now on in. As he is already in most teams, let’s hope he keeps his spot. At least he is in a winning team.

Other big inclusions this week are Swan, Scotland, Beams and Maric

Check ya later

Jon Giles ($341,100 b/e 109) Many a person had Giles locked in as their R2 for the season, due to his very respectable average of 85 from the first 9 rounds. Unfortunately, past scores of 65 and 48 (with a game off for an injury in between) reminded us all that rookies rarely last the whole season as on field players.

 

Marty Clarke ($287,400 b/e 107) A bit like Giles, Clarke would have been earmarked as a D7/8 for the whole season, but  has leaked $30k in the past 2 games thanks to unenviable scores of 44 and 36.  A spare $100k turns him into Carrazzo (the second most popular trade this week)

 

Ryan Hargrave ($322,200 b/e 103) Many a coach (me included) are getting sick of Gravy’s sh#t. Not only does he decide to put up 3 average scores in his last 3 games and start leaking cash, he decided it all gets too hard and is a late withdrawal in round 12 (when we actually need him). Personally I think he has been hanging round Shaun Higgins too much (who ironically, has played every game). Dont worry about Hargrave losing any more money, he needs to play to do that.

 

Saving trades vs trade for depth

So a lot of teams are starting to pop up now that are saying that they are finished. But what is the definition of finished? Are guns on all lines a finished team?  What sort of a player constitutes good bench cover? How many trades do you need left? For years plan A has been to be conservative and save those trades for the finals,  well I’m going to look at a strategy of using most of your trades (not all of them, leave maybe 2) to trade in an extra gun on each line for cover.  This strategy is applicable for teams who have 6+ trades left (so most people, I hope) and have close to a finished team.

The pro

  • The general trend of this season is for someone in our teams to be out through injury, suspension or omitted (good one, Sheedy). We never have our best team on the park and have to rely on our rookies to get us over the line. Having an extra gun on any line eliminates the need to play the rookies on a regular basis. The gun usually has solid JS unlike, Sam Shaw or Sam Gibson so will be available when you need them.

 

  • This season, there have been many 50/50 decisions on whether to trade guns such as Ablett, Pendlebury, Swan and Scotland. Some people have used multiple trades to get some of these players out and then back into their team again. It could ultimately save you trades in the long run if you have adequate bench cover.

 

  •  Having an adequate replacement on the bench means you won’t lose too many points while gun players are missing, and points you can generally bank on. This makes the decision whether to keep them missing players a bit easier to make. So far I have used Matt Priddis as a replacement for Pendlebury, and it looks like continuing for the next 2 weeks. Priddis has a lowest score of 76, 9 scores over 90 and is rarely a vest candidate. Sounds way better than Gibson’s vested 17.

 

Cons

  • Trades are gold. Don’t waste them.
  • You will likely need more than 2 trades for 8-10 remaining rounds if the first half of the season is anything to go by with LTI’s and the general lunacy
  • If you have 2 or more guns out on one line, you’re no better off.
  • If the gun players get rested in the finals and others have the trades in the bank, they can sideways when it matters.

Ultimately I think there is a case for this theory, it’s high risk for a potential high reward and could be worth 50 – 100 points a week. You will need a whole lot of luck to be successful in this theory, but then again that’s the way of DT.

 

Well that’s it for this week. Have you got trades to burn? Or are you going to save your trades like the old school of DT?

 

Discuss it all here!

 

follow me @jimbobholder on the twitterverse for some dream team chat!

 

103 Comments

  • Giles to Goldstein/Ryder

    OR

    Clarke to Carrazzo next week?

  • DEF: B Deledio (0), B Goddard (0), B Waters (126), M Suckling (0), J Adcock (66), B Lake (78), H Shaw (81), D Heppell (91), S Shaw (21)

    MID: S Thompson (107), G Ablett (0), D Swan (132), T Rockliff (141), S Mitchell (0), J Selwood (100), D Smith (71), S Gibson (17)

    RUCK: D Cox (83), J Giles (48), J Redden (0), T Campbell (70)

    FWD: S Sidebottom (81), L Franklin (0), P Chapman (118), D Beams (117), P Dangerfield (100), D Martin (0), D Zorko (120), A Sexton (0), C Dell’Olio (57)

    Just traded Big O to Campbell & Jezza Cameron to Rocky

    Good trade / bad trade?

    now with 5 left and 80k in the bank.

  • I’ve taken a bit of a gamble and DOWNgraded Giles to T.Campbell in anticipation of picking up Carrots next week.

    I jumped on the Maric train very early in the season, and hung onto Mummy through his injury (with Giles flying at the time and Maric, it was no problem).

    May seem a bit silly sacrificing a steady ruck backup (4th ruckman is Big O), but it’s the difference between getting Carrots in for Spurr rather than Clarke (who will be B7/8/9 for the year, as 30s are better than DNP 0s).

  • Clarke traded to Heppell or Scotland?

    thoughts

    may need the extra cash (50k) for future trades and concerns of age/calf for scotland (granted has a higher scoring potential)

  • Hey guys,

    Quick trade question. I’ve already jumped on the Clakre > Carrazzo bandwagon.

    Which of these two trades would you prefer:

    A) Pendles to Swan
    B) Giles to Maric

    Cannot decide whether Pendlebury is worth keeping, given that his injury seems to be dragging on and I only have Spurr to cover him.

    I will be making the Giles to Maric trade in the next few weeks if I don’t pull the trigger this week.

    Thoughts?

  • Have Clarke and Duffield. What do I do? I have 13 trades, and am one short in the backline.