The Numbers – Week 13: MBR Hell

Trying to find an accurate metaphor for the MBR’s got me thinking about my fictional cousin Boris. Boris has recently gone through something most of us will/have done that can be very closely assimilated to the recent DT Hell that we know (and hate) as the MBR’s. Boris is studying Law at Uni; and spent all semester working hard preparing for the dreaded end of semester exams. Being the studious kid he is, he spent hours upon hours crunching numbers – working on a plan to safely (and comfortably) negotiate the exam period. But like each semester before it, his beautifully constructed plan fell to pieces as his pages of research and preparation counted for squat as he was hit hard by the carnage that is exam week.

Back to the land of DT; and I (and all of you) have been experiencing a very similar situation over the past few weeks. With all of our preparation in the bag; a quiet confidence spread across the fantasy football community. But all of this was undone in the first week, with LTI’s, Resting and poor form ruining our well-thought out plan with one fell swoop.

Before we march forward into the bright light and away from those three letters, let us first reflect on some of the positives (and negatives) that we’ve experienced over the past 3 rounds of the AFL season.

After a few weeks off, let’s get back into it and check out the Numbers once again.

6 – Now past the half way mark of Season 2012, the ‘Ruckman’s Curse’ has been well publicized in the DT community. To put this into context, only 6 ruckman have played every game for their team this year – with Ryder, Maric and Cox the pick of the bunch. At this rate, we’ll be lucky to see two go through to R23 without picking up an injury of some sort.

7 – Trades I made during the R11-13 stretch, with my strategy to pull ahead of the fledging field all but blowing up – with key injuries and soft players being omitted (Duffield, Hargrave – I’m looking at you) contributing to my lean period of DT scores. With the maximum 9 trades on offer, did anyone take up the ‘challenge’ and use all 9?

9 – Current win streak of the Collingwood Magpies. After 2 early slip ups against then-Premiership fancies Hawthorn and Carlton, the Pies’ are on a one way road to September, with their depth proving most important with key injuries to superstars Pendlebury, Swan and Shaw all coming during that period. With their best 22 just about fit, they’re poised to make a huge run at the cup yet again in 2012. Do I hope that this will jinx them? Absolutely!

10 – Current size of West Coast’s injury list to date. With around 130 AFL players on the injury list, Collingwood, Freo, Gold Coast, GWS & Melbourne appear to be the worst hit at the moment. In terms of star player injuries, has their honestly been a year with a higher toll? Whilst injuries can be tantamount to failure in a long season, player depth is as important as ever. Tellingly, the top 2 teams (Pies & Eagles) have 12 and 10 players currently sidelined as of R14.

14 – Amount of crusty, tasteless donuts that I was forced to devour in this hellish period. If anyone copped more, I’d love for you to let me know in the comments so I can sleep a little easier at night with this terrible number on my mind.

19 – Has there ever been a lower score that has resulted in a NAB Rising Star nomination? Well, surely young Adelaide defender Daniel Talia’s 19 points in R12 v St Kilda must be right at the top (or bottom as it would be) of the list. With only 7 touches in the game, he was justly rewarded for his efforts on the Saints’ talls.

24 – Here’s a good rule to follow regarding upgrading to premiums: when it’s their first game in over a month, give them at least one game to ease back into it. If you were one of those who brought in Goodes at his R12 price of $448k, unlucky. Now only $418k with a high BE of 145 after his sub-affected 24 at the weekend, he’ll be right for the taking after one more week for under $400k.

80 – A solid score on its own, but hardly the kind of score we want to see from 2 games. Unfortunately for owners of returning Irish player Marty Clarke, that’s all he’s given us over the past 3 weeks. Just last month he was touted as a D7 keeper, however back to back sub-50 scores have put him on many coaches’ naughty list. Such is my faith in the lad from County Down, I plan on playing GWS rookie Sam Darley ahead of him for my important Round 14 H2H matches.

130 – MBR Average of the Mask of Zorko. With a breakout 140 against the Hawks and a beautiful follow up of 120 this week, he has all but firmed as a F7 keeper. I heard a saying during the week “Barlow was the old Zorko” – couldn’t be more right. With an average of over 110 from his past 5 matches, he is more than proving himself in a young Lions team closing in on the top-8.

537,000 – Starting the season with $2.4m sitting on the ground in my midfield (top 6), the current value of my engine room is now close to the $3m mark, with 537 being the rough difference. For justification, my current midfield is Boyd, Swan, Pendles, Mitchell, Rocky & Barlow. With the evening out of the magic number, this begs my curiosity, who has the most expensive midfield in the game at this point?

Twatter – Your Numbers

Cheers to Andy for this one – just goes to show that there is a very big difference between the best in the MBR’s and the best overall. If you managed to average above 1600 over the 3 week period, you’d more than likely find yourself (if I can paraphrase our PM) ‘moving forwards’.

Also to DTTalk’s own TeeTee for pointing out what we’re all thinking. But it can only get better from here, right…?

Send me your ‘Numbers’ for the week @McRathDT

Bone of Contention

This week’s bone of contention is as obvious as it is annoying as all hell. Ryan Hargrave was coined as a ‘great pickup’ and a ‘keeper’ as at Round 4 of 2012. Since then, he has gone on to score a few 90’s, 2 sub-60 scores and has missed a total of 4 games (including the bye). With the likes of Carrazzo ($385k), Grimes ($415,900) and Hanley ($358,700) hitting decent form its time coaches consider life without the unreliable Bulldogs backman and look at cashing in on one of the aforementioned bargains.

Whore of the Week MBR’s

With so many players missing over the past 3 weeks, consistent high performance is something that we’ve not been blessed with from many of our premiums. However there has been one that has stood out in the MBR’s to give coaches a lot of smile about. Dayne Beams has been brilliant so far in 2012, averaging 112 overall and a massive 136 over the MBR period. With his massive 155 in R11 and his 117 in R13, Beams has been outperforming most ‘super-premiums’ this year – stamping himself as a bona-fide AFL (and DT) star.

Back from the Brink

Nick Lower returned to the Fremantle seniors on the weekend; and what a return it was. Totalling a game-high 30 touches and 115 DT points, he shouldered the majority of the grunt work contributing some good numbers for the Dockers with 8 clearances, 8 tackles and 15 contested possessions. Priced at $374k, he offers great value if he can continue that role for the rest of the year.

(Worst) Trade of the MBR’s

Thanks to all on Twitter who let us in on their terrible trades. Anyone who traded in Jack Riewoldt after his huge 135 + 147 in R9/10 would’ve been ropable after he went down injured, only to play out the next 2 games for an underwhelming 58 and 55. But with the Tigers’ run home, he may yet come good for those who took the leap of faith. Unfortunately the same can’t be said for those who traded out Heath Scotland – after the Blues got the diagnosis drastically wrong, any who ditched the Carlton veteran in anticipation of a 3-4 week layoff would be inconsolable after he got up 1 week later only to score an excellent 100 against the Weagles.

Made a bad trade and want to vent? Let me know on Twitter @McRathDT

The Round Up

Highlights – This period has seen many lows with only few highs. Sidey and Beams’ R11 domination of Melbourne was pleasing to see; whilst Zorko’s emergence as a definite F7 keeper has been brilliant (and much appreciated); Rocky’s return to prominence this week gave me a slither of hope going into the home stretch; and at least there has been some good footy on in the absence of the full rounds.

Lowlights – Where to start? Injuries to Sandi and Pendles capped off what was a horrible month of DT. The backline continues to be the bone of contention for most coaches, with consistency and reliability words that are as relevant to the AFL Umpires as they are to our Dream Team Back 7. Let us hope for few injuries and a higher level of consistency in our quest to glory in September.

Team McRath – With one more than a baker’s dozen of donuts in the bank, the MBR’s have truly been hell for the boys. The inclusion of Mitchell, Cox and Swan during the past few weeks has helped a bit – but nothing short of a miracle was going to save my season. And like so often in life – that miracle just doesn’t come.

 

Also, for those wondering about my cousin Boris: his exams are now over; and he managed to fall over the line and pass all of his exams – however like many of us in the land of DT just fresh out of the gates of MBR Hell, all Boris has to show for his troubles are some meagre numbers and a bit of extra weight around the middle caused by a new found addiction to Red Bull and a bucket load of Krispy Kremes.

Now, as we look forward to Ten Rounds of Bye-Free DTing – let us remember (like Boris) that this hell is bound to be repeated next year, with the evil ‘Dean’ Andy Demetriou already penning in 6 MBR rounds for Season 2013. Luckily for Boris, at least he gets to graduate next year. Whilst as DT tragics, we’re not as lucky – bound to these stressful times until the day we retire.

How did you pull through the past three weeks? How many donuts did you stomach?

Also, if you’re not following me in the Twittersphere, you’ve been missing out – so hit me up @McRathDT

121 Comments

  • Midfield’s worth $3,142,000 – Boyd – Gablett – Stanton – Chapman – Swan – Thompson.

    6 – trades over MBR’s

    5 circular shaped dough balls for rd 13

    Dropped to 3,608 in rankings.

  • For captain Swan with a Selwood tag or Ablett with a Crowley tag

    • Other way round mate.
      and Crowley will likely go to thomas I’d say and hope…

      • Right you are mate, was hoping that Pendlebury would play and get the tag, but since he’s not, hopefully your right in saying Daisy gets the tag

  • who to get for giles?? griffin, roughead, ryder or jacobs??

  • Mids – Swan, Ablett, Boyd, Watson, Thompson, Mitchell (>$3M).
    MBR Doughnuts – 4-2-5 (11).
    Rank change – from 4800 -> 2800.

    Just need Carazzo to complete the team, who would you trade out from Clarke, Hargrave or Conca?

  • $2,882,900 underperformoming midfield of
    Boyd, Ablett, Dusty, Beams, Shuey & Mitchell

    1+4+5 = 10 donuts
    1 win in
    MBR
    4th to 6th in League
    8 Premiums on bench in R13

    6 trades left

    0 chance of winning title!!!!

  • 0 – the number of shits i gave about the mbrs :/(

  • This should make you feel better McRath…

    4380- number of points scored over MBR’s averaging 1460
    18- number of donuts during the period
    5- number of trades used (Sandi>Maric, 2 downgrades and Mitchel & Boyd in)
    6- number of trades left
    $3,113,200- swan, ablett, stanton, boyd, mitchell, pendles.

  • Great article mcrath!

    Hey Lads, just want to ask a quick question. Should I pick up Hanley at this price or pick up carrazzo in one week? Team is all done and when i do this trade I will have darley as D7, with 2 trades left.

    • With only 3 trades left i’d say hold onto your trades. But if your set on making a trade to finish your team I’d def go for Carrots, he’s more consistant than Hanley and will(should) score 90+ every week.

  • 8 – Number of MBR Donuts
    1837 – Average MBR Score
    94% – My ranking improvement over MBR (214th to 13th)

    $1100 – Change my starting midfield gets out of $3m
    $3.29m – Value of my starting forwards (including Zorko)

    146 – Margin I am predicted to beat Calvin by this week (at least on current teams)

  • Thanks McRath.

    10 – number of donuts over MBR’s
    205 – number of places gained during MBR’s (270 to 65th)
    135,678 – number of reverse trades made during stressful MBR’s.

  • Great Article Mcrath,

    Here is my team at the moment

    DEF: Deledio, Goddard, Heppell, Birchall, H.Shaw, Adcock, HARGAVE (Whiley, Townsend)

    MID: Ablett, Swan, Stanton, Boyd, S.Thompson, Priddis (Sexton, B.Hill)

    RUC: Roughead, GILES (Redden, Campbell)

    FOR: Beams, Sidebottom, Franklin, Danger, Robbo, Chapman, Zorko (Martin, Dickson)
    CASH: 75K

    Trades this week:
    Hargrave to Carrazzo

    i have 5 trades left right now (4 if i do the trade above)

    Any ideas on how i could make my team better??

    • Don’t want to sound like a broken record (unless it’s DJ Fresh) but to make your team better I would hold tight for a while and use your LTIs to upgrade/downgrade. Back of the envelope calculations says that on average a group of 30 players will be subject to 3 LTIs for half a season (using an injury with 5 weeks + as a definition of an LTI).

      Scary stuff.

      • +1
        no point “finishing ” your team to have LTI’s and have to play rookies because you used all your trades. Trade out Hargrave this week if not named i guess but what if Adcock or Shaw get a LTI the week after? Whiley and Townsend are not players you want to rely on for 6 weeks are they?

        Come finals players WILL be getting rested….

  • Thanks for another great read McRath!

    5 trades, 8 donuts for the MBR’s

    13653 – places jumped overall

    1100 – $$ under 3 million midfield
    (Boyd, Thommo, GAJ, Swan, Mitchell, Priddis)

    178k – $$ over 3 million forward line
    (Sidey, Buddy, Beams, Robbo, Danger, Zorko, Martin)

    Due to early season carnage and with few trades left
    I’m thinking the true value of my team may be decided by who’s on the pine!
    With Sheedy’s rotation, who knows the JS of Greene, Treloar or Smith?

  • i have held pendles too late to cut now? i can get any mid in.
    he is no certainity to return next week either

    • Im just playing Zorko M6 and letting Pendles leg get better on my bench

      • im doing the same thing.. keeping him..
        he’ll come good and be a welcome addition to the Steamin Demons when he’s fit and ready

  • anyone’s thoughts on mumford?? doesn’t take much money to go giles to him

    • Mummy looked sore on the weekend.I’d watch him for a few weeks.

    • Tempting but also risky, back injuries can be terrible especially on a taller player. I am still considering him though

  • current team
    Deliodio goddard heppell, shaw birchall hargrave ellis (smedts shaw)

    swan thompson jelwood barlow priddis mcdonald (horsely kenedy)

    cox giles (stehphenso reddenn)

    sidebum franklin chapman robinson dangerfield martin zorko (smith hall)

    current trades 11 183800 in bank

    this week trade 1
    horsley to gibson or couch – this will leave me with 391400

    now the dilema starts

    trade 2 mc donald to beams/rockliff or any other (only requirement is leaving enough cash to do hargrave to carrots next week)

    Beams – leaves me with 158400 for folowing week (carrots will cost about 60-70000 leaving me with 80000ish to upgrade martin)

    rockliff – leaves me with 234 500 follwing week i may be able to trade martin to beams and hargrave to carrots

    or do i forget about beam all together – iam worried that when pendels comes back his score will suffer

    cheers guys

    • Definately the last option, depending on how many trades you have left. Downgrade Horsley to Gibson and upgrade McDonald to Rocky this week. 234 500 will be plenty to upgrade hargrave to carrots and Martin to Beams. Don’t worry, beamer will go all season long.

      • Having said this I think it would be a good idea to upgrade ellis instead and turn Giles into a premo ruck.

  • My team so far:

    Deledio, Goddard, Waters, Birchall, Carrazzo, Golby, Hargrave (Morris, Spurr)

    Ablett, Swan, Selwood, Cotchin, Rockliff, Hayes (Mcdonald, Gibson)

    Jacobs, Griffin (Stephenson, Redden)

    Sidebottom, Beams, Franklin, Chapman, Dangerfield, Martin, Zorko (Treloar, Pfeiffer)

    Pretty happy with how it looks!
    Any thoughts?

    Cheers.

    • Its unfortunate that you have to keep spurr there, this week im doing spurr to carrazzo

  • 19 zeros for the past 3 weeks.
    6, 7, 6. Thanks for coming.

  • Def: Goddard, Delidio, Heppell, Birchall, Waters, Hargrave, Ellis (Bootsma, Darley)

    Mid: Pendles, Boyd, Ablett, Thompson, Mitchell, Swan (Gibson, Zorko)

    Ruc: Goldstein, Giles (Stephenson,Redden)

    Fwd: Sidey, Buddy, Robinson, Zaharakis, Martin, Beams, Dangerfield (Hall, Sexton)

    90,000 in the bank 6 trades left

    Thoughts on trades to complete my team??

    I was thinking this week:
    Orren to Campbell
    Giles to Ryder

    Next Week:
    Hargrave to Carrots

    Future:
    Ellis/Darley to Premo once they make more cash

  • Does anyone know if Paul Puopolo will continue to be sub? Past 3 weeks he hasn’t been sub and averaged 87, he’s cheap, should I get him? Will he continue to be sub?

    Please!!! Help!!!

  • My team at the moment:

    Def – Waters, Hargrave, Birchall, H.Shaw, Scotland, Goddard, Darley (S.Shaw, Ellis)
    Mid – Swan, Ablett, Jelwood, Stanton, Deledio, Sidebottom (Gibson, JMac)
    Ruc – Cox, Giles (O Stephenson, Redden)
    Fwd – Franklin, Martin, Beams, Cloke, Porps, Zorko, Treloar (Pfieffer, Couch)

    11 trades left, $111,600 in bank, any idea’s please ???????

    Think backline is the weak link so far, or forwards…..or both !!!!

    • The way your team is set up and the amount of trades you have suggest to me one thing….TRADE HEAVILY!!!

      The way you have utilised DPP wouldn’t have served you well pre MBR, but it is to your advantage now.

      Over the next three weeks, upgrade and downgrade 3 times using 6 trades.

      Get rid of Ellis or Hargrave for Docherty (BRIS) or Baguley (ESS) and then Sub Deledio into your backs.

      Sub Sidebottom for Treloar or Pfieffer

      Upgrade McDonald and Treloar/Pfeiffer to Premo Mids such as Boyd and Mitchell

      Last trades of 6 should be Sam Gibson OUT and then sub Tom Couch to your Midfield Bench and upgrade to a bargain Premo Forward.

      If your MIDS are completed and you have Docherty/Baguley and Couch on the bench, it doesnt matter if they play or not or even if they make money (it would help though) – you will be able to cover any injuries with your DPP’s during finals.

      If you do this your team will be set by round 17 – so there will be 3 games left before finals and you will still have 5 trades and FULL DPP cover .

      Hope this helps :)

      • Cool thanks, i’ll look into it.
        Didnt make one trade during MBR’s and won all 6 of my games though.
        Definately need to strengthen my team with a few more premos so we’ll see how it goes
        Cheers

  • DEF: Deledio, Goddard, Birchall, Suckling, Enright, Lake, Bugg (Shaw, Wilkes)

    MID: Swan, Pendles, Watson, A Swallow, Simpson, Shiel (McDonald, Couch)

    RUCK: Cox, Giles (Jenkins, Campbell)

    FWD: Franklin, S Johnson, Beams, Sidebottom, ROK, Martin, Zorko (Dev Smith, Crozier)

    6 trades left (don’t judge me, had basically every premo injury possible this year)

    This week:
    Old Mac – Gibson
    Bugg – Carrazzo

    Next Week
    Dev Smith – ??
    Shiel – Ablett

  • I’m still a bit of a rookie at Dream Team and it does affect my team and position a lot, but anyway;

    MBR Donuts:
    Round 11: 7
    Round 12: 6
    Round 13: 9

    7 Trades left, salary cap of $180,600 (1 trade left for the round)

    DEF: Goddard, Scotland, Suckling, H. Shaw, Bugg, Hargrave, Morris. (Bootsma, Redpath)
    MID: Stanton, Boyd, Ablett, Swan, Mitchell, Treloar. (Gibson, Yeo)
    RUCK: Giles, Z Smith. (Stephenson, Campbell)
    FWD: Sidebottom, Chapman, Robinson, Dangerfield, Pavlich, Martin, Zorko, (Pfeiffer, Hall)

    Possibly trading in the following players in the next couple of weeks; Carrazzo, Deledio & Cox or Maric*
    Leaving me with 4 trades left.

    It’s still an incomplete team like hell and it’ll get nowhere in the overall position. But meh.

    ADVICE or Trades I should make. Help meeee?