The Friday Scramble: Round 13 (MBR3)

I don’t know about you guys, but I must say that over the last couple of weeks, whilst our scoring has been no good and it is a bit of a raffle, I haven’t had to do a great deal of scrambling.  Mainly because there are no choices to make of who to play and who to leave out.  The only decisions we have to make each week at the moment are in relation to our trading.  And those sorts of decisions are fairly easy to make once the teams are out.

Having said that, don’t worry I have been just as hard hit with non selection (bloody Hargrave) and bye related donuts as the next guy, but my one consolation has been that everyone is in the same boat at the moment unlike the dreaded LTI’s that we have been having that have hit people at random.

As we have been doing all through theMBR’s with our trading, we are still all looking to improve our squads and have them pretty much set for the rest of the year by the end of round 14/15.  At that point you should be looking towards only making trades for LTI’s and in the Finals for guys that are getting a visit from the General.

Everyone’s Different!

Over the past two or three weeks there has been a monumental amount written and discussed in forums and podcasts about how many trades you should have left and whether or not you should keep someone that is out for 3 or 4 weeks.

However, when I sat back and had a look at it in my own situation I found that the answer is never the same.  When I look at my team I see a team that is pretty much complete and maybe has around 8 – 10 trades left (no I am not giving everything away).

Now for me, I am going after a league win predominantly in my workmates league (let’s face it I have to put up with these guys every day of the week!).  In that league I am lucky enough to be sitting top by percentage  with 8 wins.  Based on that even though I have another upgrade I want to make, I can afford to sit on my team and hold that upgrade for a week or two as I know it won’t hurt me if that player doesn’t score well.

However on the other side of the coin are the teams that are sitting about 7th – 12th in their league and have about 8 – 10 trades left.  These teams should be trading to make sure that they make the finals otherwise they are simply going to fall too far behind by carrying a player that they could unload to help them cement that spot in the 8.  There is no point going into Finals with 6 trades if you find yourself in the Tit-Ed cup (bottom half finals for the uninitiated).

Lastly you have the guys that are going for the FJ.  These guys need to have been very lucky with their LTI’s and have a lot of trades in the bank.  Minimum 12 I reckon.  That way they can easily pounce on the next big thing and make sure that any premium that is dropping low scores can be quickly traded out for someone that is playing well.

So for me, when people ask these questions I am answering with “what are you trying to do and where are you placed at the moment”.  It is your current position that will determine your strategy over the next 4 weeks.

 Untried Talent

With many people trying to avoid donuts at this difficult time of the year there has been quite a few people that have thrown normal convetion out of the window and have decided to trade in guys that haven’t even played a game yet.  The most notable of these recently was Sam Gibson from the Kangaroos.  This guy is a mature aged player and was tearing it up in the VFL.  So it made sense for people to jump on him right?  Well there are always the obvious Vest risks, but he managed to avoid them and score a tidy 67.

The biggest challenge now is to hope that he keeps his spot in the side.  I am by no means saying he won’t, but if you are relying on him for bench cover for the rest of the year and in particular this week whilst we are without stars like GAJ.

The other one that has come up this week has been the Bulldogs Ruckman Tom Campbell.  What I feel is the major concern with him is that Minson is only out for one week thanks to his errant mouth.  When he returns next week I am concerned as to the role that Tom will play?  There has been discussion that he could go and play up forward.  However, when I watched them on Sunday night I saw Ayce Cordy up forward as the main target and I didn’t see him do anything that would cause him to lose that spot in the team.

Speaking of untried talent, now that we haven’t seen Tom Couch yet I am kind of hoping that we don’t see him now this year.  If we see him for the last half dozen games or so then he will ruin his price for next year.

 Deja Vu?

The other massive issue of the week has been whether to trade or hold Scott Pendlebury.  Now, if I do recall we have had this discussion twice already this season!

Both of the guys that we have been told were going to be out for about 4 weeks were Gary Ablett and Dane Swan and both of these guys were back after two weeks out.  Now we are up to 3 weeks out for him if you include the bye round.

If you have held him this long and you have some bench cover next week for him, then you may as well hold on.  Reports are that he is training well and should be back in R15 hopefully.

We have had a couple of others that have been telling us they are out long term only to turn up a week or three later… Heath Scotland springs to mind!

Things to Remember

  • Job Security is King – Just because someone new has a couple of good scores doesn’t mean they have cemented a spot in the team.  Just ask Aaron Hall, so make sure you have done your research.
  • If you trade in now… they should be in your team at the end – So make sure you aren’t trading someone in that you are planning to trade out again.  You won’t have enough trades.  If they are a cheapo or rookie and don’t get another game, then just call them Relton and leave them there.
  • They don’t hand out trophies in June – So just because you have negotiated the byes and won a couple of games to get yourself up the top, we are only half way home!  Make sure your team is solid with cover on each line and ride them home til finals.
  • Ablett isn’t playing this week – So make sure you pick a different Captain this week.  Cause if you don’t, then that VC you left on Robbo from last week means you get a donut for your captain score.

Week 3 of the MBR’s and aren’t we happy about that.  Hopefully Andy and the big boys down at AFL house don’t put us through 6 weeks of this hell like they have been saying for next year!  But as we have been saying all along, it isn’t just your team that is copping this sort of carnage at the moment, everyone is!  I scored 1836 or so last week and only dropped 3 overall ranking points, so that told me that my score wasn’t too bad after all even though some others had scores of 2000plus!

Keep an eye out tonight for the late changes and final Sunday squads.  In particular that Melb v GWS game.  I guarantee that Sheeds has an ace up his sleeve and will pull the old switcheroo on us tonight when we least expect it!

Have a great weekend of DT (its’ all I have this week with my team off on the bye, which is a good thing as we have no fit players left!) and I will catch you all on twitter @pkd73

 

65 Comments

  • You know 1t.

    :D

  • Good read as usual Dunny. Thanks. I have been through rucking hell and back plus an injury list as long as your arm. I am keeping Pendles; I learnt from trading Ablett out and then back in. I got sucked into the Spurr trade . No more said. I need to trade to get into the finals.

    I want Beams but cant afford him at that price. My other option is Goodes. Is he the best option at around 440k or are there others I should consider?

    Also I have noticed Michael Johnson. Is he a true back premium?

    • im going MJ this week, SUPER consistent and watching all the Dockers games over here in WA Lyon is playing him loose across half back, takes lots of marks+kicks and is reasonably unnaccountable for opposition forwards. Cant see him scoring below 85ish put also wont get much higher than 110….

      • obviously who havent been playing DT for long .. MJ is SUPER INCONSISTANT .. he always sucks you in with a few decent scores, then sucks big time in the 2nd half of the season.. dont say i didnt warn you

  • Is hargrave – Grimes worth it?

    • +1 thats what ive done,Hargrave had 1 more week to impress me anyway or he would be Carrazzo next week or the next

  • Need a quick answer boys –
    currently have 411k in the bank with 11 trades left, my plan was to sure up my team using three trades this week and ride my last 8 home.
    Question –
    Would you go
    Horse+Shiel+5Fer —–> Swan+M.Johnson+S.Gibson leaving around 130k in bank for surety
    OR
    Horse+Tomlinson(dud, hardly played)+5Fer—–>Swan+M.Johnson+Delolollililioilioil(dodgy JS)
    leaving 12K in the bank, but keeping S.Gibson on the bubble for next week to dump Shiel to and bring in my last prem mid??
    Thoughts? Tomlinson not playing is hurting but Sheedy will likely put him on at some stage and having the coin in the bank is good for future upgrades ie: Darley —> Carrots round 15…

    Let me know boys
    option #1 or #2

    • First option definitley, Big plus is that they are all named this week, who knows when Dell’olio will play again. I had Tomlinson too hey, man was that a bad choice. He actually did really well in the preseason too….Disappointing. I see his role as a fill in for someone who needs a rest so he wont string games together

    • I haven’t done the math but can you go Horse + Tomlinson + 5fer —–> Swan + MJ + Gibson?

      that way you can keep Shiel as M7/M8

  • Guys..

    Hargrave -> Broughton
    OR
    Hargrave -> Grimes?

    Any thoughts – looks like Hargrave is having problems with job security now and inconsistencies as well.

    Thoughts appreciated,

    Cheers

    • What about Michael Johnson from Freo?

      • Yeah, I already have him in my Forward.

        • Consider DPPing him into backs then and bring in a fwd gun like beams, chaps or even goodes…

          • a good idea, that. If stuck with Broughton and Grimes I’d go Broughton, less likely to be injured and scores about the same.

    • I was just reading about Hargraves and he is one of the best the dogs have.. Why is he not playing.. All players go through bad patches so what do you guys think.. Is he to come back[one would have to say yes] or is this a club hassle.. Maybe he has fallen out, has anyone heard anything… Thoughts please

  • Whats people thoughts on these two trades this week.

    Bennell avg. 82.92 to Chapman avg. 103 / 20 points difference

    and

    Martin avg. 84 to Beams avg. 111.7 / 27.7 points difference.

    Overall this will boost point percantage by 47.7. Do you reckon this is worth it or is it too sideways?
    This will allow me to avoid a couple of donuts this round and if the players maintain their average the team will be boosted by 47 points each round.

    Thoughts would be appreciated… cheers

    • Hard to tell without knowing the makeup of your team

      I wouldn’t trade Martin or Bennell in general

      I would look to other areas of the squad to upgrade and get more points for the $$$$$$$

  • When are Sunday teams updated?

  • Who should I keep as FWD bench cover for rest of season (Hall or Smith)? Looking to upgrade the other to Goodes/Chappy…

    FWDs currently Franklin, Sidebottom, Beams, SJ, Martin, Zaha, Zorko (Hall, Smith)

  • What is up with heppell? Not on injury list but not named

  • H. shaw, J. Grimes or D. Heppell for Morris! doing my head in.. im thinking shaw but what do you reckon???

    • If you already have Carrots, I would go Grimes – now he is playing in the midfield he will pump out some 100+ scores and is the best value. He could just go and get injured at any time though!

  • Hi Guys, I’m only playing Supercoach but I’d appreciate your views on my team.

    Have 10 trades and 460K left sitting 3/4 in my leauges.

    Backs Birchall Deledio, Goddard, Broughton, Yarran, Dempsey, Ellis, Bugg, Spurr

    Mids Boyd, Mitchell, Masten, Zaharakis, Pridis, Horsely, J Mac, Williams

    Forwards Buddy Cloke Dangerfield Sidebottom Zorko Sexton Whitecross Treloar Martin

    Rucks Giles Nic Nat, Orren, Reddan

    I was planning to swap Zaha for Thompson this week and bring in Ablett for J Mac next week which only leaves me with 100k and I have some issues to fix in my back line. If I wait a week Thompson may drop another 10k, or do I grab Thompson now and flick Yarran and worry about getting Ablett later?

  • Hey all,

    I am a H2H player. I only have 7 trades left, $140K in bank. My rucks are Giles, McEvoy, H-Mac & Big O. Thinking of going either Big O to TC to net me $130K, or I could go H-Mac to TC for $320K. Want to go this week because TC cover a donut in the rucks this round.

    I have been holidng onto H-Mac with the hope that he will be back by rnd 17/18 (in time for finals) and covering him with Giles, but I am not sure if it is worth the wait? If I had more trades I would just ship Big O out no question, but I am now unsure…

    I really only have one more upgrade in the forwards and backs apart from this.

    • I would save the trade. If you can afford to have a misfiring position the ruck it is. And with the carnage that has already happened this year I wouldn’t risk trading in an injury

  • Hargrave appears to be my biggest dilemma of the week.

    I traded him for Golby back in R7 to make my team “better”

    I have worked out the stats, and it turns out that the trade has cost me:

    1) -$61,000 (Cost me $26k more to get Hargrave and now Golby is valued at 35k more than Hargrave)

    2) -149 points since making that trade (i.e. my total score could be 149 more had I held Golby)

    3) Two unnecessary donuts in the bye round

    Here are my 3 options:

    1) I trade the prick out this week for either Greg Broughton, Jack Grimes, Michael Johnson or Dyson Heppell this week
    2) I wait a week then I trade Hargrave out for Scotland or Suckling
    3) I hold Hargrave for the rest of the season

    I didn’t mention Carrazzo because I also have enough cash to upgrade Darley to him for Round 15

    Thoughts would be appreciated.

    • Johnson. I have had him since the start and he has never let me down. Very consistent, even on a bad day he still gets high 70s and low 80s, so my choice would be Johnson

  • Hey,

    Broughton Deledio Waters, Birchall, Goddard, Hargrave, K Hunt, Shaw, Darley
    Ablett, Pendles, Mitchell, Selwood, Boyd, Shiel, JMac, Zorko
    Giles, Cox, Redden, Stephenson
    Frankiln, Robinson, S Johnson, Beams, Sidebottom, D Martin, Treloar, Smith

    I have 12 trades left and 57K
    Thinking of making 6 trades over next three weeks

    This week

    Treloar – M Johnson
    D Smith – Gibson swapping Zorko

    These guys have high BE’s so better out than in I feel

    Net week

    Jmac- Couch
    Shiel to Swan

    Next week is the perfect time to buy Swan I believe

    2 weeks time

    Hargrave – Carazzo
    K Hunt swap to Johnson and bring in forward or mid. Will have about 350-370K so will prob go a cheapie.

    Perfect time to get Carazzo

    That will leave my bench cover as
    Def- Darley and Shaw
    Mid- Zorko and Gibson
    Ruc- Redden Stephenson
    Fwd- Porps and Couch
    With Zorko and couch with DPP

    What do people think of this??

    Is 6 trades enough for the rest of the year after this.

    Are there better options?

    • Nice cover, Couch isn’t looking like getting a game though.

      • My thinking is I can swap him and Zorko around when necessary.
        Couch is bottom price and I can wear him not getting a game.
        If he does get a game I think he is better than the current rookie options.

  • Hey all,

    Whilst braging about not planning for bye rounds and not going to trade during the byes I totally missed the two down grades that everyone else has seem to have done with Sam Shaw and Jaime Elliot.

    Can someone please tell me if the main focus of these two was to fill donut holes or more because they are likely to have good JS for the rest of the year??

    I don’t know much about either of these two but surely I shouldn’t think lesser known names like Elliot would stand much chance in a side like collingwood?

    Shaw however is a different story.

    I would love to know more on these two as I will reluctantly get to the station in the hope to get aboard if either will be around long term. If I got both last week, I would be welcoming Mr Swan this week no effort at all.

    • Shaw has been getting a lot of good press from a number of sources but is still on the extended bench this week. I jumped on board as I couldn’t see anyone else worthy.

      It’s a wait and see proposition with him.

  • great read mate.

    I would like to know from you fine educated people, whether you think it is too late to trade in S. Darley?
    I am struggling with this decision mainly due to the lack of Def Downgrade options at the moment, and in the future >< He would be coming in for Hargrave, as he is listed as an EMG.

    Thoughts Appreciated

    • Probably too late but I can’t comment as I am contemplating Shaw and Elliot a week after their price is close to 100k more then last week.

      I think I’ve just stuffed my team by not paying attention to normal ‘money making’ trades while intentionaly ignoring ‘donut avoiding’ trades.

      Part A of the MBR plan not to have a plan seems to have worked well.
      Part B of the MBR plan not paying any attention during the MBR’s appears to have disadvantaged me.

      WTF was I thinking last week!

    • Darley = horse bolted

  • This week i am trading simply to strengthen.

    Trealor to Swan
    McDonald to Gibson
    Martin to Steve Johnson

    I have lost patience with Dustin Martin. Regretted picking him from Round 1!!!

    • You must have a heap of trades if you are thinking about trading Dusty who is an uninjured player who will get you 85+ most games

  • I appear to have a very similar situation to most… I’m sick of hargrave and want to get rid of him. I was thinking Grimes, MJ or Cotchin… I have no idea though, as this was never going to be a planned trade! My current backline is: delidio, Goddard, heppel, waters, suckling, hargrave, K hunt, darly and shaw. Hunt becomes carrazzo next week, but this week I need to sort out my hargrave issue… Any advice?!??

    • Sorry, can’t add up, forget MJ and replace with H Taylor from Geelong…

    • Ugh, have completely misread my notes… Forget my post all together!! Gotta get my shit together first… Haha

  • Congrats Heat!

  • DEF: Delidio, Goddard, Waters, Birchell, Hargrave, Darley, Sam Shaw, Townsend, Spurr

    MID: Swan, Ablett, Stanton, Boyd, Thompson, Jmac, Horse, Sexton

    RUCK: Cox, Giles, Redden, Stephenson

    FWD: Franklin, Sidebottom, Robinson, Dangerfield, Martin, Cloke, Zorko, Pfierrier, Black

    I have 11 trades left with $279,800 in the bank.

    thoughts overall..? Any ideas..?

  • Well written, as always, Dunny!

    I’ve been stressing all week over who to choose out of Sidebottom and Beams to finish my forward line.

    Any help from the community to push me either way would be of great help!

    Cheers.

  • Great article as always mate!

    Whats happened to Dreamteam Stock Market? Haven’t seen it for weeks!

  • Yeah top notch write up Dunny,

    Fellas, thoughts on the better keeper for M7/M8

    The Horse or Treloar?

    Treloar has already played 8 odd games and if Sheeds 14 game ceiling is accurate may not be on deck later in the year when possibly needed. Horse has had a couple of duds but still averages 80+ in addition to being a mature age player. Keeping Horse will mean losing the DPP link and eating a doughnut but i’m not too concerned as am sitting ok in my league. The DPP loss is a bugger though.

  • Afternoon all, kinda botched my season so far so thought i’d check with the masters.
    DEF: B Deledio (108), B Goddard (71), H Scotland (104), G Broughton (0), B Waters (0), M Clarke (0), R Hargrave (0), T Bugg (82), S Shaw (69)

    MID: M Boyd (133), G Ablett (148), D Swan (0), J Selwood (0), M Priddis (93), D Zorko (140), K Horsley (76), J McDonald (73)

    RUCK: D Cox (96), J Giles (0), O Stephenson (0), J Redden (40)

    FWD: L Franklin (122), S Sidebottom (0), P Chapman (0), D Beams (0), D Martin (86), T Milera (43), D Smith (37), A Hall (0), A Sexton (27)

    Looking at trading d.smith, A.hall, Horsley to Crozier, J.watson and Patton this week.
    Next week J.Mac, Milera to Gibson and FWd (goodes/Robbo/GCS cheapie :))

    2 weeks (Bugg/ clarke to carrots)

    then dump sexton to couch if he ever plays, ruckman to cheapie later on and upgrade hargrave/bugg/clarke and one more forward.

    I have 14 trades 227k in the bank. should be 500+ but missed the horsley buy in round :(

    so what you think good/stupid is there anything else should be focusing on.

    cheers

  • hmmm not posting?

  • good stuff, godvibes.
    hope scotland is mr medicre from now on so all the smug heros who held onto him have nothing to gloat about.
    good article.
    hope BOYDY cleans up as C for me with no GARY!

  • Hey guys,

    what do you think of this trade in my Rucks:

    I currently have Giles, HMac, O. Stephenson and J. Redden.

    I am thinking about trading out HMac ($409K) to J Griffin ($350K) from Freo.

    I do have $453K in the bank but I still want to upgrade another 3 premium players with that money.

    I have 8 trades left.

    What do you guys think? Are there better options there I should consider? I’m kicking myself for not picking up Maric 6 rounds ago! haha

    Thanks guys.

  • DEF: Delidio, Goddard, Waters, Birchell, Hargrave, Darley, Sam Shaw, Townsend, Spurr

    MID: Swan, Ablett, Stanton, Boyd, Thompson, Jmac, Horse, Sexton

    RUCK: Cox, Giles, Redden, Stephenson

    FWD: Franklin, Sidebottom, Robinson, Dangerfield, Martin, Cloke, Zorko, Pfierrier, Black

    I have 11 trades left with $279,800 in the bank.

    thoughts overall..? Any ideas..?

    im thinking:
    horse out gibson in..?
    jmac out beams in..?

  • This is my team just about completed..

    DEF: Delidio, Goddard, Waters, Birchell, Hargrave, Darley, Sam Shaw, Townsend, Spurr

    MID: Swan, Ablett, Stanton, Boyd, Thompson, Jmac, Horse, Sexton

    RUCK: Cox, Giles, Redden, Stephenson

    FWD: Franklin, Sidebottom, Robinson, Dangerfield, Martin, Cloke, Zorko, Pfierrier, Black

    i have 11 trades left with $279,800 in the bank.

    Trade options i thought of..
    Option 1
    Horse out Gibson in
    Jmac out Beams in

    Or

    Option 2:
    Horse out Gibson in
    Pfierrier out Dell’Olio in ( thoughts on Cory Dell’Olio ..? )
    Jmac out Beams in

    If i do option 2 i will have 8 trades left and $395,00 in the bank
    If i do option 1 i will have 9 trades left and about $256,000 in the bank

    Thoughts…?

  • i have 11 trades left with $279,800 in the bank.

    Trade options i thought of..
    Option 1
    Horse out Gibson in
    Jmac out Beams in

    Or

    Option 2:
    Horse out Gibson in
    Pfierrier out Dell’Olio in ( thoughts on Cory Dell’Olio ..? )
    Jmac out Beams in

    If i do option 2 i will have 8 trades left and $395,00 in the bank
    If i do option 1 i will have 9 trades left and about $256,000 in the bank

    Thoughts…?

    • Option 1 i reckon.

      Dell’oilo’s JS is questionable and at this stage of the year you will want a player who can be there week in week out as a reserve in case of a late out and i don’t see him cementing his spot in the side to be that player.

  • Thinking of trading shuey up to watson

    Mids and forwards are finished and waiting for carrazzo to finish of defense with 7 trades remaining

    It seems crazy to trade out shuey but I am considering as my mids are nt as strong as some
    with Swan, Ablett, Jelwood, Redden, Priddis and Shuey

    Opinions please, I prob should save the trade but I get edgey on Fridays