Swan v Pendlebury

No toss up between two premiums was more talked about pre-season than Swan v Pendlebury. Half way through the season I thought would be a good time to have a look at how the choice has panned out. The comparisons between the two players were pure. They play for the same team, so bye factor was taken out of the equation, and due to the same fact (and ideally only wanting two premiums out per line during the MBR) you could not have both in addition to other less expensive premiums who shared the same bye such as JSelwood, Stanton, Watson and to a lesser extent DPPs such as Chappy, Beams, Goodes and Fyfe . Swan and Pendlebury were the two most expensive players in the competition, and general consensus was that you needed to start with either one or the other, but which one …..?

When doing this comparison I looked at my 2 leagues, which are both rather competitive and include some well known and respected DTers. From that I came up with some assumptions. I have gone on what the majority of people in the competition have done which I think is only fair:

Assumptions:

  • You started with one of either Dane Swan or Scott Pendlebury. I am sure there are you out there who started with both or neither, but with 68,098 starting with Swan, and 76,603 with Pendlebury, and approximately 250,000 people in the comp at the time, the odds have it that over half the comp probably started with one or the other.
  • You did not trade either Swan or Pendlebury when they got injured. Again, with 68,098 starting with Swan, and 26,418 combined trading him out in R9 and R10. The majority of people kept him. With 76,603 starting with Pendlebury, and only 19,935 trading him out before R11 and 4,329 last week, the majority have also kept him as well.
  • I have ignored captain choice, (apart from the R5 loophole opportunity explained below), as there are too many possibilities. Stats suggest that Ablett has taken the armband most weeks when on the park anyhow.

For each round I have added a Hindsight-o-Meter. Common instrument used by people all around the world after an unpredictable event has occurred. Most commonly seen on this site aimed squarely at Calvin the Monday after his #1 Captain choice has a Barry Crocker.

Just for the record, I chose Swan over Pendlebury, my team just did not look right without him.

Round 1

Swan, Dane – 102

Pendlebury, Scott – 132

Teams (eventually) locked in, it was time for the Swan-Pendlebury saga to begin. In the end of the (Fri)day, it was Team Pendlebury that came out on top. SP10 outscored the previous years highest averaging player by a full 30 points. Teams who made the Pendlebury choice even  got him for $21,400 cheaper.  I looked like it was not only a good decision, but a great one.

H-o-M: Swan 0 – Pendlebury 1

 

Round 2

Swan, Dane – 116

Pendlebury, Scott – 122

More of the same in Round 2. Pendlebury again outscoring the Great Dane, this time only by 6 points, but still enough to fire an email to your mates who started with Swan over Pendles saying how much of a DT genius you must be, and the old “told you Swan was overpriced”  got thrown around a fair bit to add salt to the wound.

H-o-M: Swan 0 – Pendlebury 2

 

Round 3

Swan, Dane – 109

Pendlebury, Scott – 62

This is where, like all good sagas, there was a big twist. Enter Pendlebury’s nemesis  – Andrew Carrazzo. Carrots limited Pendlebury to 15 touches, about half of his usual quota. Swan on the other hand racked up his usual 30+ possessions out scoring his adversary by a whopping 47 points, erasing the previous two deficits and then some. Suddenly coaches were regretting sending the above email. Reading the forums, a few even contemplated trading the superstar for fear of him getting tagged out of games from now on. Sanity prevailed (although a couple of thousand traded him before R4!) and Pendlebury owners just put it down to him having a bad game (and Carrazzo a particularly good one).

H-o-M: Swan 1 – Pendlebury 2

Sidenote: Carrots is now back and in Round 15 with all being equal so will Pendlebury. Predicting there will be some sort of plague like avoidance between Pendles and the captain’s armband that round!

 

Round 4

Swan, Dane – 134

Pendlebury, Scott – 124

Pendlbury owners quickly look to who Port Adelaide will put a hard tag on him, and who’s name pops up, DT legend and one of my favourites Kane Cornes. Cornes goes to Harry O, Pendles gets Pearce and it is business as usual. All Pendlebury owners breathe a collective sigh of relief. “It was just a once off”. Although, Swan takes the honours again, but this time only by 10 points.

H-o-M: Swan 2 – Pendlebury 2

 

Round 5

Swan, Dane – 171

Pendlebury, Scott – 113

 

Round 5 and yet another twist. The Vice-Captain loophole is upon us and it falls on the ANZAC Day clash of Collingwood v Essendon. Lets be honest, and I am sure some of you will disagree, but if you have either Swan or Pendlebury, you are using them for the loophole this week.  Calvin had Stanton (coming off a 175), Pendlebury then Swan in that order for the loophole options. Fast forward through 120 minutes of great footy, Essendon going down by 1 point if you do not remember, and there stands Dane Swan with the ANZAC Day medal amassing 171 Dreamteam points in the process. Pendlebury with 113 and Stanton on 77. Swan loophole users are keeping his 171 thank you very much. Pendlebury loophole users have a decision to make. Whether they held their one in the hand, or chased their two in the bush may not have really make much of a difference unless you went right out of the box. Saying this because other pirate suggested Captains were Boyd (115), MMurphy (117) and if you had the balls to pick Goddard (58). Out of the box options like popular midfield guns SThompson (138) and Rockliff (136) all went well, Mitchell (63) and JSelwood (69) not so much. Fair to say no one got near Swan. Double points this week on the Hindsight-o-Meter.

H-o-M: Swan 4 – Pendlebury 2

 

Round 6

Swan, Dane – 117

Pendlebury, Scott – 133

Pendlbury back on top this week.  Like a good dual, SP10 gets one back on his teammate, 16 points to his favour.

H-o-M: Swan 4 – Pendlebury 3

 

Round 7

Swan, Dane – 143

Pendlebury, Scott – 119

Take above statement, Ctrl ‘H’ Pendlebury and SP10 with Swan and DS36, and 16 points with 24 points to get this weeks result.

H-o-M: Swan 5 – Pendlebury 3

 

Round 8

Swan, Dane – 95

Pendlebury, Scott – 133

Yet another twist is upon us. With both superstars cruising along to +120 scores Swan pulls up with a Hammy strain early in Q4 and heads down the race not to be seen again. It does not look good for those who own the great man, prognosis  ……. out for 2 weeks.

H-o-M: Swan 5 – Pendlebury 4

 

Round 9

Swan, Dane – 0

Pendlebury, Scott – 88

This week was set to be a pivotal week in your DT season as a Swan owner. We had seen the mistake people made trading Ablett for a two week injury. The old saying “fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me” was never so fitting. No one likes having a player worth almost 600 thousand dollars warming the pine. Funny thing was so, for some, this did not end up being as bad as we thought. I for one was forced to place Adam Treloar on my field, who would have been bench cover, who pumped out a very nice 119 after a paltry 57 the week before. Looking at the rookies that you would have needed to field in Swan’s absence in Round 9, it most likely would have been one of the following: Zorko, Horse, Old Mac, Treloar, DSmith, Adams, Coniglio, Shiel, Kennedy or Magner (Green DNP). These players averaged 71 points between them and it will depend on your individual team as to who you used on field as a replacement.  Out of the rookies listed, Treloar (119), Zorko (94) and Shiel (94) actually outscored Pendles. But for the purpose of this article, the points in the Hindsight-o-Meter must go to Pendlebury.

H-o-M: Swan 5 – Pendlebury 5

 

Round 10

Swan, Dane – 0

Pendlebury, Scott – 59

Swan out for his second week it was much of the same, playing a rookie to replace the great man until his return. Again it would most probably have been out of Zorko, Horse, Old Mac, Treloar, DSmith, Adams, Coniglio, Shiel, Green or Magner (Kennedy DNP). This lot averaged 73 for the week, with 7 of the 10 outscoring Pendlebury. [insert controversy] – Even disregarding the fact that many had Pendlebury as their captain, going on the stats you would have been better off owning Swan, having him on the bench and playing a rookie than playing Pendlebury in this round. Only the greatest Dreamteam player in history can take the points in the Hindsight-o-Meter while sitting in the stands doing nothing.

H-o-M: Swan 6 – Pendlebury 5

 

Round 11

Swan, Dane – 142

Pendlebury, Scott – 0

Pendlebury’s injury could not have come at a worse time. For many Pendlebury owners, this was the week where you decide to keep or trade the superstar. Precedents firmly set by the well known cases 2 week cases of Ablett v DT Community and the more recent Swan v DT Community, the majority bit the bullet and held. The problem with this was keeping him was all but a guaranteed additional donut.  (Out of the 11 teams that had Pendlebury in my most competitive league, all 11 teams incurred an additional donut by keeping him, as they already had donuts in their midfield). This hurt. Swan on the other hand pumped out a lazy 142 on his return.

H-o-M: Swan 7 – Pendlebury 5

 

Below is a small graph indicating points differential between having one over the other. Factored in are the R5 loophole and what points you gained by replacing the injured players at the time. Bear in mind that with the magic number pre season being around 4,946, Swan costing $21,400 more and DT being 11 playing rounds in for these two players , mathematically the even point is Swan being 48 points in front .((21,400/4946)*11=47.59). My calculations have him 243 in front.

What does the rest of the season hold for this absorbing duel ….. who knows. Teams who own Swan are on top at the moment, but as you have seen from the above, that can change very quickly. According to the Age and Collingwood’s injury list Pendlebury looks to miss again this week, but If DT history tells us anything, it’s that it is unpredictable.

Lets hope that when both get back on the park they both score well and stay fit.

 

Markmellow

(Team name – Surly Duffs)

38 Comments

  • Great article even though I’ve had the Swandlebury since day one I don’t think it’s worth trading Pendlebury out.

    • sorry, but double pts in rd 5 is a load. Why not give pendles double pts while swan is earning his owners donuts, thats the bit that hurts ya.

      And giving swan a pt in rd 10 is also rubbish. Would you rather a donut, or a 59? Once again, points are points.

      Which ties the score at 6 all. Are we to assume the author is a swan owner or what?

  • I’ve been grumpy about having Zaha on the bench but I guess it could be worse, there are lots out there who’ve had and have he and Pendles costing points. Adzman had it right on Sunday, these MBRs have been all about luck and I suspect the pre-season predictions that the MBRs would be the difference between winning and losing might be right.

    IMO If the eventual winner went through these rounds with one of Pendles, Zaha, Hargrave, HShaw, Hmac… on the list then they are more than deserving of the car. If they went through with two or more then they need their DNA preserved with the Nobel Prize winners for Maths and the Bradbury Prize winners for Tinarse

  • Got Round 10 wrong, giving a point to Swan when ho scored 0.

  • The number 1 team in DT (ducks) doesn’t have Swan or Pendles ATM!

  • Have both now, YIPPPEE

  • DEF: B.Deledio, B.Goddard, G.Broughton, B.Waters, J.Grimes, R.Hargrave, S.Shaw, (S.Darley, S.Morris)
    MID: B.Stanton, M.Boyd, G.Ablett, S.Mitchell, D.Swan, J.Selwood (D.Zorko, M.Williams)
    RUC: I. Maric, J.Giles (O. Stephenson, J. Redden)
    FWD: L.Franklin, S.Sidebottom, M.Robinson, D.Beams, S.Johnson, P.Dangerfield, D.Martin (T.Adams, A.Hall)

    Thoughts on:

    Hall>Gibson (moving Zorko to FWD)
    D.Martin>Chapman
    Morris>S.Johnson

  • DEF: B.Deledio, B.Goddard, G.Broughton, B.Waters, J.Grimes, R.Hargrave, S.Shaw, (S.Darley, S.Morris)
    MID: B.Stanton, M.Boyd, G.Ablett, S.Mitchell, D.Swan, J.Selwood (D.Zorko, M.Williams)
    RUC: I. Maric, J.Giles (O. Stephenson, J. Redden)
    FWD: L.Franklin, S.Sidebottom, M.Robinson, D.Beams, S.Johnson, P.Dangerfield, D.Martin (T.Adams, A.Hall)

    Thoughts on:

    Hall>Gibson (Zorko to FWD)
    D.Martin>Chapman
    Morris>S.Johnson

    • Maybe post it a third time dude might get people’s attention

    • u have stev johnson already and u cant trade a defender to a forward, unfortunately, but if u mean the other johnson in freo then that would be e very smart move as i already have him and have been very happy with him this year

  • Well done Mark, good stuff!
    Started with both, kept Swan & traded Pendles to Beams….crack in the tibia = LTI for mine.

    • yea 2 weeks was always very unlikely, but the bye rounds being what they are, and leagues being my focus, just took it on the chin and kept him.

  • Markmellow, that was a very long article to tell us that Pendles is a jet but there is only one Pig. Why use 100 words when you can you use 1000 hey. By the by, can you also do a review of Beams vs Sidebum? I’ve got a sneaking suspicion that Sidebum can go missing when you need him most to win that important league match

    Kind Regards,
    PingPong

    • Yeah mate, thats likely. I was chatting to Sidey the other day and he said he had a roster of ‘your most important league games, just so he knows when to score poorly!!!

  • great article

  • Great article mate.
    Interesting stats to see.
    Had them both from the get go and hasnt been smooth sailing but I think it will pay off in the end.
    Swanny should comfortable average 130 this year IMO.
    Make of this what you will…

  • I didn’t start with either of them but are going to trade in both in the next 3 weeks:

    R13 (this week)- Swan
    R14 -Gibson
    R15 -Pendlebury

    However, I’m not set on who to trade out yet. My current mid and fwd rooks are:
    Horsely, McDonald, Shiel, Treloar
    D Smith, Zorko, Hall

    Right now I’m thinking:
    D Smith -> Swan
    Horsley -> Gibson
    McDonald -> Pendles

    Thoughts?

    • Btw great article mate. Very interesting, I guess no one can beat the DT pig.

      Also, some key points for the post above:
      -trading out Horsley this week will save me a donut
      -trading out a forward rook will lose my DPP
      -trading out Hall won’t give me enough money atm

    • go horse to swan this wk and smith to gibson as well if your going to trade in gibson anyway, thats what im doing, and if u r keeping either treloar or smith definetely trade smith over him treloar is a gun he had one bad game and will bounce back wont reach his break even but will outscore smith the rest of the season. Unless you need money of course but 20k isnt that much if you’ve planned and i’d say the mighty Chuck norris has planned quite well for a second half of the year!
      Sorry for the long reply (got carried away!) :P

  • Might trade Pendlebury to Swan just not sure…

  • I have 11 trades left with $279,800 in the bank.

    DEF: Delidio, Goddard, Waters, Birchell, Hargrave, Darley, Sam Shaw, Townsend, Spurr

    MID: Swan, Ablett, Stanton, Boyd, Thompson, Jmac, Horse, Sexton

    RUCK: Cox, Giles, Redden, Stephenson

    FWD: Franklin, Sidebottom, Robinson, Dangerfield, Martin, Cloke, Zorko, Pfierrier, Black

    Any ideas..? thoughts overall..?

    trade wise im thinking maybe…

    Horse out, Gibson in
    jmac out, beams in

    OR

    Horse out, Gibson in
    Dustin Martin out, Beams in

    any other trade ideas maybe..? future ones..?

    • Pretty solid side with plenty of cash and trades, beams would be a great upgrade but i think martin could smash out some better scores in the second half, id lose cloke before martin. Upgrading giles to maric or hargrave (or another defender) to carrots after the byes is a good idea as you wanna get ur team set asap and start smashing some 2300+ scores. Scotland in defence is s good option too. Hope that helps mate

      • yeh thanks mate thats alot of help.
        now i reckon i’ll go…
        this week: IN: Gibson and Beams and OUT Horse and Jmac
        RD 14: IN: Carrots and maybe Maric Out maybe Hargrave and Giles
        RD 15: IN: maybe get Scotland or even cloke out for chapman..?
        what do i do with Spurr, Darley and Townsend..? should upgrade one of them but not sure if i will have enough cash.
        Maybe i could downgrade Pferrier…?
        I got quite a few options and trades i can play with so thats good..

        Thoughts..??

    • upgrade your defence soon,
      Maybe

      Horse to Gibson
      Townsend to anyone

      • yeh im thinking of keeping darley.
        just hope Spurr plays this week.
        im thinking maybe downgrade Pfierrer to Crozier for cash…id do this trade in like 1 or 2 weeks time pfierrier still got cash in him.
        than i will have heaps of cash to work on my defence by getting Carrots ( hargrave out) and maybe Scotland? ( Townsend out?)

  • mids at the moment – selwood, mitchell, priddis, ablett, pendles (gibson, d.smith)

    what do people think about a pendles to scotty thompson trade?
    reason is i’m covering a donut and also freeing up cash for other fixes that i may need to make.

    i;m planning to bring in swan later on in the season when priddis has gone up. thoughts?

  • Great article, graphs definitely wrong though, no flat line in points for swan when he was injured?

    I went swan and held him through injury, happy with both choices!

    • That’s because people would have had cover for Swan on the weeks he missed……..so emergency average used. When Pendles has missed is in MBR’s so that will be an extra 0 for people, no real way to cover that.

      • Nailed it Blue Boy.

        When Swan did not play a bench player would be on field, so graph has Round 9 as 71 points and Round 10 as 73 points. Round 11 is a genuine 0 for Pendlebury as no one had cover.

  • great write up mate

    had pendlebury from the start and holding onto him and brought in swan this week so mids look like

    swan pendelbury boyd ablett mitchell watson with zorko and gibson on the bench

    • Haha serious? I have the exact same midfield, although have Williams instead of Gibson. I also started with Pendles and brought in Swan this week for the first time for JMac. Classic.

  • Need 2 trade up options:
    1. Swannie and Pendles
    2. Swannie and Watson
    3. Watson and Pendles

    • Depends really, when you plan on making the upgrades. If now, then go Swannie an Watson, but if your going to make them in a few weeks time, then consider going Swannie and Pendles (When he drops in price a bit and is ripe for the picking) instead.

  • Started with both, kept both, would do it again