The Sunday evening knee-jerk. Mid-season review.

The Sunday evening knee-jerk. Mid-season review.

So that’s it! We have made it to the byes; I guess in effect we have made it to the half-way point of our DT season. We just need to get through these 3 lottery rounds then back into it for the second half. As a change of pace this week I thought I’d have a look at the best performing players thus far this season. I haven’t just chosen the highest averaging players… anyone can look at the leader boards. I’ve pretty much ignored the players that we all knew would be stars, the super premo’s who score over 100 ave without even trying.  Instead I’ve tried to add the ‘bang for buck’ players or the mid-pricers who actually have shown enough to say they have broken out. I’ll also take a look at some of the DT fancied players who have bombed so far this season. In case you hadn’t guessed I had to go away this weekend so this was pre written before the round began…. Hopefully none of these players make a fool of me but all averages are up until rd. 9.

Backs.

Brett Deledio. Ave 118

As I mentioned last week Lids has been my player of the season. He has always been there abouts as a dream teamer but always failed when you needed him most. He’d generally be good for a 90s average. At the start of this year he withdrew from a NAB cup game with a hammy and sat out a few games coming back for a 91 in the first game of the year. Starting at a price of $452k I guess there may have been a small element of risk involved in the purchase but being a back he was always going to score enough to keep you happy. What we have seen is Lids explode to an average that any decent mid would be happy with. What makes it better still is that Richmond have had a horrible draw and will go on to play a very easy second half of the year. Lids could easily rack up some huge numbers, Lids has stamped himself must have.

Beau Waters. Ave 96

Priced at $338k Waters was smack in the mid price category pre-season. There was always the risk of his elbow shitting itself again or Beau belting someone and getting weeks.  What we have seen however is the ‘good’ Beau. He has been one of the most reliable of backs averaging 92 with a scoring spread between 79 and 122.  That right there is a player you can set and forget for a bargain price. With the way the Eagles are playing right now Waters looks like he may be able to get an armchair ride to a mid 90s average at the end of the year which will make all owners from the start very happy campers. At $428k it’s probably not too late to get on after the round 11 bye if it fits your bye plan.  

Michael Johnson. Ave 90

Johnson is probably not the first player that came to mind early on at a price of $319k but he has proven to be quite consistent, all but 2 of his scores have been over 80 which as a defender is quite acceptable. He is a fwd/mid so those wanting to have dual flexibility all over the park could do worse than to choose this guy. But do we trust him fully? He has generally been a mid 70s averager over his career so either Ross Lyon has found the best in him or he is fool’s gold, which do you think?

Mids

Brent Stanton. Ave 129

Stanton has always been a DTer but for some reason the bulk of the DT community doesn’t like to pick him as a premium. He was coming off an average of 107 and a price of $528k which is a snip now if we look at it! Stanton’s rise has matched the bombers, he has broken the all-time DT record for a match score and he’s had some mega scores such as 124, 140, 193, 175, 116, and 153 along the way. These are numbers that are unbelievable really. But…. There’s always a but. There is still the nagging doubt that he can’t shake a good tag. Marty Clarke held him to 77 and he looked fairly despondent like the Stanton of old that day. Has he done enough to be must have? The scores say yes but I’d like to see him shake a couple of good tags just to make me feel better first.

Brad Ebert. Ave 106

Ebert came home on a switch from WA after averaging 62 in his final year at WCE. I guess there wasn’t really much of an indicator that he was going to explode but if you look back at his under 18 numbers he was always a good accumulator.  Priced at $308k he was smack in the awkward price range that can make or break your year but from the start you would have known you were onto a winner… after a 129 he has gone on to average 106 with a low of 82. With not a lot of competition for points in the port midfield you can look forward to more points as the year goes on. Ebert has to be one of the picks of the year so far.

Scott Selwood. Ave 106

There are a raft of young WCE midfielders that could have taken this spot, there is Rosa averaging 100 and Gaff averaging 95 but for mine the tagger turned accumulator scooter Selwood takes it. Priced at $430k it would have taken some massive balls but if you knew what was about to happen you would be loving it right now. As the year started everybody was waiting for him to be a flash in the pan but the numbers kept on coming at which point we couldn’t really doubt him anymore. In truth he has become a little inconsistent of late but the WCE team are flying and I think he can continue to average over 100 for the year. Next year however…… Gaff… first picked!

Josh Kennedy. Ave 106

Hawthorn discard (they must be spewing) Kennedy averaged 86 last season and there was a murmur around the traps that he could break out this year. He showed great scoring ability last season but lacked consistency which I guess makes a premium. Priced at $428k again he was in a range where you would more than likely have picked a proven performer but Kennedy has proven to be a solid pick. A possible Brownlow leader early he thrives in the Sydney style of play and should continue to rack up points as the year goes on. A scoring spread of 83 – 147 puts him smack in the reliably consistent performer category. Must have? Not this year.

Trent Cotchin. Ave 105

Like his mate Deledio, big hair Cotchin has had a cracking start to the year against some very strong sides; it will only get easier for him.  Priced at $463k he may not have been a risk you were willing to take but I doubt you would be disappointed now if you did. This guy is a real footballer’s footballer. Has good disposal, gets in the right places and runs all day. He cops a bit from opponent taggers but is good enough to get through it. Taking out the 63 he scored a few weeks back he averages 110 with a spread of 88 – 143. If not this year he will become a must have player in a few years’ time, the kids a star!

Rucks

Jonathon Giles. Ave 86

Priced at $117k he was obviously a must have player and has proven to be an important cog in everybody’s side whether it be as a 2nd ruck or as bench cover. However we have seen this all before… last year Zac Smith started In much the same way but faded late.. Will the same happen to Giles? Well he is a bigger bodied more mature player so we could assume not.. But the rigours of a full AFL season can’t be underestimated. I’d imagine he would slow slightly to average around 80. His scoring graph is a bit like jagged mountains with the ups and downs which still mean I can’t trust him to be my second ruck but pound for pound this guy would have to be the player of the season purely on bang for buck. After rising $240k he has definitely done his job either way!

Ivan Maric.  Ave 99

Another tiger who has come from the clouds Maric the people’s mullet has been stoic as the tiger’s lone ruckman. He was always a bit parts player under Neil Craig but has shown the DT world what he can do this year. Starting at a price of $262k he and Giles were the correct ruck duo in hindsight, both giving huge bang for buck. Maric’s scores have been building as his confidence grows, starting around the 80s he has tonned up in each of the past 4 games going at an ave of 118. He is probably out of reach now at $458k but if you aren’t stubborn, jump on! The ruck division has been a source of pain for most…with many fancies being injured or having poor form, Maric has been a rock!

Forwards

Steele SidebottomAve 113

There was a real changing of the guard this pre-season with most choosing the break out contending dual possie forwards ahead of the old fashioned power forwards and most of them haven’t let us down. The first being Steele Sidebottom, he just has a knack of getting into space where the ball is going to be. I won’t say he gets a lot of junk ball but he gets a lot of points late in quarters. He has a scoring spread of 85 – 139 which is seriously gold for a player we paid $428k for. This breakout we got right.

Mitch Robinson. Ave 103

Possibly one of the most average good footballers I’ve seen… no disrespect! He goes in hard, puts it all on the line but he loves to just chuck it on the boot and tumble it anywhere. Every team needs one of these guys and he is DT gold because he won’t be tagged. Starting at a price of $456k he has been a most consistent performer, taking out the injury affected 53 he is averaging a healthy 109 with a scoring spread between 82 and 146. The loss of Murphy for 8 weeks will possibly increase his scoring rate as the 143 last weekend showed. Another breakout we got right

Patrick Dangerfield. Ave 95.

Danger has always been a quality player but he has slowly been weened into the midfield over a number of years. While he was stuck in the forward line he was never going to be able to score at a premium rate but now a centre man he is not only bashing and crashing, he is also accumulating possessions at an awesome rate. Everybody knew he was going to make a star player, was just a matter of when.  Priced at $349 he was a bargain but many still were not convinced even after a slashing NAB cup. It seems past years danger had burnt more than a few. So it was a leap of faith to pick him but those who did have been suitably rewarded. He still shows signs of inconsistency which means he isn’t quite there yet but I’d imagine an average of 90 will do him for the year… not bad for the initial price.

Dayne Beams.  Ave 108

Beams is the fourth of the breakout aged breakout contenders that have rewarded coaches this season. The loss of Luke ball has thrust him into the coal face and he hasn’t let us down. Scores of 121, 137, 122 and 132 in his last five shows he is a big hundred getter, which is what we look for in a DTer. I’d imagine as soon has the rd. 12 bye is gone most will jump on this guy as a must have.

Bombs

We have looked at some of this year’s performers, how about some DT fancies that have bombed? The beauty of this is we still have over a half a year for these guys to rectify the situation. Great for us, because we can score a bargain… It’s also good to watch closely in the back end of the year for next year’s breakout players. So who has stunk it up?

Reece Conca. Ave 74

Conca was the talk of the town after a great NAB cup game only to be suspended for the rest of the tournament leaving everybody in limbo. He played a cracking game early in the season to suck a few more people in but in effect he is tracking perfectly for a breakout next year. 55av à 74av -> 3rd year booyah! 

Sam Gilbert. Ave 61

Ever since ‘the’ photo incident the 88 averaging gilbert has turned into a DT potato. Some thought this year with a new coach he could turn his fortunes around but it hasn’t to be. I hope you didn’t get sucked to this one!

Bryce Gibbs. Ave 88

Coming off a season of 105 average DTers were salivating pre-season as Carlton peddled the line of Gibbs exploding on the AFL. The move from DT back to Mid may have deterred a few but so strong was the message out of Carlton that some still took the plunge. It’s been a sorry season so far for Gibbs but can the loss of Murphy be his silver lining? Keep eyes peeled for a bargain.

Jack Trengove. Ave 71

Coming off an average of 90 last year Trengove was a prime breakout candidate, but the loss of Scully and being given the captaincy may have been a burden too heavy for the young man to handle. If you picked him it would be like acid in your mouth as his price has plummeted. Would you back either he or Melbourne to reverse their fortunes? Good luck if you have stuck with him.

David Mundy. Ave 77

Mundy was bordering on premium last season after averaging 95, the sky seemed the limit for this season however the curse of the Lyon has hit Freo and their DT players. He just doesn’t seem the same player… is he still carrying that injury or is the new plodding game style stifling anything good that Freo can muster?  I’ll leave it up to you to decide.

Jack Ziebell. Ave 81

Ziebell was one of the breakout talks of the town during pre-season. Everyone was bemoaning the fact that Jack was suspended for the first 2 games after his slashing end to last season. Upon his return he did nothing to quell this with a 130 score tricking some into buying him so they didn’t bleed too much money on other price falls. Ziebell has stunted however, only increasing his average on last year by about 4 pts. He should still be one to watch but he may be an unconventional break out at another point in his career.

Zac Smith. Ave 63

After last year’s awesome debut in the mid-70s everybody expected Smith to go on with it and average up in the 80s but he has actually decreased markedly and looks a shadow of the player he was. It would have been a ballsy pick to begin with but I feel sorry for you if you’re now stuck with him. I can’t see it turning around any time soon.

Travis Cloke. Ave 75

I’m not sure if it’s related to the transfer speculation or not but Cloke is having a mare this season! This guy has the ability to rip games apart but is doing nothing in a DT sense. It would have been hard to hold onto him while watching Beams and Sidey carve it up. All is not lost though; he is still averaging around 70 without even firing a shot. This is one guy I’m backing to come good… Starting from this week.

Colin Sylvia. Ave … very Average. (43)

This guy looks mentally finished at the demons. He is coming off decent averages of 96 and 90 but just isn’t at the races this year. He may have been a sneaky pick for some but for mine his true value will come next year when he moves to a club in a premiership window and he can reignite himself as the icing on a team’s cake. Keep stinking it up mate! You will be a bargain next term.

Leigh Adams. Ave 74

Patch was a hot rumour pre-season to break out.. He was coming off a few 80s averages and showed every inclination that he could pop for his fantasy owner’s. He has however stalled and would be a bitter disappointment for his owners.

So that was my list of half season Guns and Bombs. As I say I purposely omitted the known premiums. Let me know any I have missed or who your guns and bombs have been! Who has been your best Smokey pick? Best dud? Show off now in front of the DTtalk community!

Best of luck in the byes.

Hit me up with any thoughts on twitter @adzman78

96 Comments

  • last night my score was 2006. today my score is 1948. anyone know where 50 points went?

    • 60* points? it took my ability to do simple maths with it wherever it went.

  • Want to get Ablett for the Horse but 20K short. Grrrr

  • If I had listened to Calvin and put Steele Sidebottom as Captain I would have got the extra 12 points I needed to win my Eliminator. Instead I chose Pendlebury and that ended up being the difference between winning and losing.

    I have genuine Dream Team depression. I was ranked around 800 in the Eliminator, had a strong team going into the byes, and this week I was predicted to beat my opponent by over 200 points.

    Prior to the Bulldogs game I had 8 players to go with a prediction of a 2450+ final score. Hargrave and Lake didn’t score too well but I forgave them reasoning that the ground and weather made it difficult for them to do their chips to each other in defence. Still, I was in front of my Eliminator opponent and basically just needed Marty Clarke and Pendlebury to take the ground for me to win.

    He had Garry Ablett as his Captain and when I saw Pendles hurt his knee I started to panic. Then when he returned to the field I had a massive sigh of relief, my anxiety began to settle down and I relaxed knowing that I would still win this Eliminator by a decent score.

    When I checked this site later in the day to see that Pendles had been subbed off at half time I then endured the agony of watching Ablett dominate every time I hit the ‘refresh screen’ button. Going into the 4th quarter I was still 40 points ahead of him, Marty Clarke was on 72 and it wasnt unreasonable to think that Marty Clarke could get a couple marks and kicks against the bottom placed side in the final quarter’- that might buy me enough points to stay infront – and Garry Ablett might have a quiet quarter… Sure enough Marty Clarkes score of 72 just sat there as I watched my Eliminator opponent who was ranked around 12000, come up and beat me by 11 points.

    Last year when I lost my Eliminator I was upset but knew it would happen because his team was a lot better than mine. This year my team was genuinely strong and got dudded on that Sunday afternoon.

    I couldn’t even bring my self to get out of bed. The last time I felt this bad was when Australia was given all those controversial decisions at the 2006 World Cup then finally looked set to beat Italy who were down to ten men as we ran all over them until they got a stupid penalty call 2 minutes from time…

    I spend all year and all summer looking forward to Dream team and planning my side, I cant believe I have to wait another year now because of such a ridiculous Sunday Afternoon.

    The 9 point difference between Sidebottom and Pendlebury as Captain would have seen me win my Eliminator… So in Summary…. I should have listened to Calvin.

    The only thing that will make me feel better is if Warnie rings up the Geelong football club to discuss how the late withdrawals are affecting our Dreamteams – just like he did to the crows with Ben Hudson. That was a funny clip.

  • thoughts on nicholson melbourne averaging 87

    • Same question. Know nothing about him other than his name.
      Need quick cash and someone who will average similar to Hargrave. Could this be our guy?

      • yep thinking of trading Hargrave fr him as well as he fits bye structure perfectly and is at a cheap price unsure whether he is worth the punt or not

  • round 9 was the first and will be the last time i put sidey as my captain

    • Sidey will murder it as soon as he gets back to Melbz. MIstake going him cap interstate.