The Numbers – Round 8

Numbers… it’s what DT is all about. Price changes; averages; break-evens… the list goes on. Round 8 was another great week of high DT scores – as the best teams are starting to really click into gear. With 2300+ scores becoming more frequent, it’s only a matter of time before 2500 is a regular occurrence. With injuries still a thorn in the side of many coaches, how we navigate these coming into the MBR’s will go a long way to determining where we stand at R23.

Let’s have a looks at this week by the numbers…

2 – A slightly more predictable round (only just) this week, with just the two major upsets in the round of 9 games. Port Adelaide started us off with a nail-biting finish that saw them finish the victor over the struggling North. Sunday afternoon saw the firing fellow-Adelaide team the Crows power home against a flat Carlton. With this year’s competition more even than ever – the top 8 (and top 4) is far from settled as each week throws up more than a few surprises. Whilst frustrating for tipsters, it’s great for the AFL as it will be benefiting from fewer blowouts and predictable hidings in season 2012; bringing more fans through the gates.

4Number of weeks that coaches are looking at facing without current #2 overall, Dane Swan. After 7 straight hundreds, his season came to a sudden halt on Friday night as he came from the ground with a hamstring injury. Similar to Gary Ablett’s knee injury a month ago, almost 87,000 coaches now face the same tough situation with Swan possibly sidelined until after Collingwood’s R12 bye. With trades extremely valuable, coaches will face a tough task this week. Ironically, many coaches would’ve traded Swan in when Ablett went down, and may be faced with the exact opposite trade now that Swan is out.

7Goals that defensive anchor-come-power forward, Lion Daniel Merrett scored on the weekend against GWS. After a 5-goal first quarter, he smashed his previous best DT score by 58 points as he powered onto a game-high 149 points. The young Giants were helpless as they watched the Lions forwards run them around the park for four quarters, with Brisbane also holding the Giants to their second lowest score of their short career (40 points).

10In one of the most promising (and accurate) starts to an AFL career, Jeremy Cameron from the Giants had kicked 10.0 prior to R8. Whilst his reputation as an emerging talent hasn’t been tarnished, his reputation as a sharpshooter has been taken aback, with his 0.4 against Brisbane frustrating his fans and coach as GWS struggled to hit the scoreboard against an unforgiving Lions outfit.

11New premiership odds for earlier title-favourites Carlton. After previously sitting first at $4.50 for the flag, recent bad form and injuries have set the Blues back – with them now sitting in 7th on 20 premiership points. Whilst not out of top-4 calculations by any stretch, Brett Ratten will be looking to arrest their slide down the ladder if they’re to seriously threaten for the title in season 2012.

38Disposals by Pies’ young gun Steele Sidebottom on Friday night against the Cats. In the absence of Luke Ball, he has stepped it up on his way to a 110 DT average for the season. Along with Dayne Beams and Scott Pendlebury, the Collingwood midfield is in good stead for many years to come.

43100 + scores that Melbourne has now given up thus far in season 2012. At a rate of over 5 per game, opposition teams are getting a lot more of the ball than the Demons; and the results are starting to show. With the ‘soft’ tag being thrown around, as well as ‘lack of heart’, they have had one of the worst starts in AFL theory. Can they turn it around? Check out my recent article where I discuss this in light-hearted humour.

46Hitouts by Demons’ ruckman Mark Jamar at the weekend. What should be lauded as a huge feat, was overshadowed by his teams huge loss to the Swans; as well as his own inability to get hold of the Sherrin, only managing 7 disposals for an underwhelming 72 DT points. In contrast, R18 last year saw Dean Cox gather 22 touches and 42 hitouts. That day he scored 137 points. Whilst hitouts are the easiest way for ruckmen to score, it often doesn’t translate to a great DT score.

106Four round average of 2012’s cash-cow king, Kyal ‘The Horse’ Horsley since his debut. With excellent consistency and a high scoring ceiling, he’s shaping up as a possible M6 keeper based on his form. At the very least, we’ll be able to upgrade to a super premo for cheap after the R13 bye. At this rate, he will be worth over $430k as at R13 – a stones throw away from a super-premium.

80,900Amount of spectators that packed the G’ on Saturday for the annual Dreamtime clash between Essendon and Richmond. This game continues to be one of the games of the season, as evidenced by the Bomber’s 19 point win this weekend. With crowds up from last year, the AFL continues to blaze away from opposition sports in terms of game day attendance and viewing numbers.

Send me your ‘Numbers’ for the week @McRathDT

The Benchmark

At the R8 juncture of season 2012, I thought I’d take another look at the overall current leader of the competition. I must say it’s great to see a fellow Blues supporter in the lead, with team Carnablues, coached by Tim at the top with an average of 2211 as at R8. His score of 2,363 was enough to take him from 6th to the #1 spot this week. He has a great looking team, with Lids, God, Waters, Broughts and the WB boys in defence; whilst Stanton, Boyd, Pendles and Hayes make up his midfield; Cox and Giles make up his rucks; and Sidey, Danger, Robbo, Chapman, Buddy, Beams and Martin give him a crazy looking forward line. He’ll likely be looking to get in Ablett soon, but other than that this looks to be a team that could win it.

Whore of the Week                                                                               

The WotW award typifies absolute DT domination and applauds the extraordinary feats of the AFL’s best. R8 was topped by some new faces, with Lions duo Daniel Merrett and Jonathan Brown dominating the Giants, and young guns Cotchin, Dangerfield and Sidebottom leading the way for their respective teams. But the #1 scorer this week was Tigers midfielder, Brett Deledio. His 160 points was undisputedly the king of R8 – totalling 35 touches, 7 marks, 10 tackles and 1.2 goals. With the regular preseason talk of DT defenders ‘moving to the midfield’ (Gibbs and Broughton, I’m looking at you), Lids is proving to be heads and shoulders above the rest in this category – with a current avg of 114 from 7 games. In another year where defenders are either out of form, injury-prone or just underperforming, he has been a shining light to well deserve his nomination in this year’s competition.

Coach’s Pet

It is of no surprise to note this week’s Pet as Brisbane mature-ager and preseason bolter Dane Zorko. With many (myself included) taking the brave step of bringing him in after one subbed game of 26 points to cover donuts, the Mask of Zorko paid us back in spades, motoring along to total a nice 96 points. Now on the bubble and ready to skyrocket in price, Zorko presents us with the only real sure downgrade at a time where options are very lean. Much like the Horse a few weeks back, the Zorkmeister is a must have going into the middle of the season. Over 7000 coaches have already pulled the trigger, with many more likely to do the same by Friday this week. So don’t think about it – just jump on!

Captain Hindsight

There has been a lot of talk about popular preseason super-premo breakout candidates Bryce Gibbs and Brent Stanton in recent times. Unfortunately: for very different reasons. If you were like me and started with the Carlton utility, you’ll be very disappointed with his input to date. On the other hand, Stanton has dominated in almost every game to be the best DT player in the land up to R8. Consider this – before the season started, Gibbs cost $529,000 based on his 2011 avg of 107. Many expected him to breakout into a 110+ average; however this has since been proven wildly wrong, with him only mustering a paltry 85 avg to date. He has also dropped over $120k to $406,900. Stants on the other hand has gone wild – starting at a similar $528,300, scoring 6 tons including 4 x 140+ scores, along the way breaking all the DT records. He now stands at $614,300 (up $86k) to sit on a nice 133 season average.

If you’d chosen Stanton over Gibbs, you’d have an extra $226k in value, an extra 390 points and be a very happy coach. For those of us who started with Gibbs… well, let’s just say – hindsight’s a b*tch.

(Worst) Trade of the Week

Luckily for me, my trades are starting to pay off so I’m out of the firing line this week. Unfortunately though, a few coaches weren’t as lucky, with @EdHundertmark and @MattCraigDT bringing in Murphy (27 – injured) and Pearce (42) respectively last week. Also, thoughts are with coaches who brought in Heppell 2 weeks ago (@JasonSymons7) after scoring 111 and 137 a few weeks ago. Having scored 61 and 62 the past 2, he joins the list of currently underperforming premiums. The good news however, is that we’re going to have a lot of bargains around MBR time.

The Round Up

Highlights – Deledio, Danger and Sidebottom smashing the scoreboard; Barlow and Rockliff bouncing back to form; as well as Stephenson finally making his 3rd AFL appearance to total a solid 77 points at a time where ruck cover is crucial.

Lowlights – Murphy going down as the Blues were well beaten by the Crows; Gibbs and Robinson failing to step up thereafter; DT defenders for letting us down with Hargrave (56), Adcock (67) and Heppell (62) all underperforming; and Swannie (95) for selfishly injuring his hamstring in the Pies win over the Cats.

Team McRath – the signs are good for the boys, with inclusions Zorko and Boyd having blinders. The team is still carrying a few underperformers in Adcock and Gibbs. But once they gel with their new teammates, I’m sure they will bounce back to help projecting us back into a respectful position. Am considering taking advantage of some defensive bargains this week, with the team almost complete going into the MBR’s. I’d just like to also make a sidenote – this year more than ever has proved the importance of picking the right players from the start. If I’d have chosen Lake, Hargrave and Stanton; as opposed to Adcock, Golby and Gibbs – I’d probably be in the top 1000, as opposed to my current situation. Maybe next year those calls will go my way.

Also, I’d like to give props to our mate Griff for the new Numbers banner – hope you all like it. I’m looking to reinvigorate the article next week with a self-administered challenge… check back next Tuesday morning to see how it goes (and what it’s all about). Until then, enjoy the weekend’s games, including a fight between the Cats and Dogs; as well as a battle of AFL minnows Port and GC.

Feedback appreciated as always. Also – if you’re not already… follow me in the Twittersphere: @McRathDT

229 Comments

  • thoughts on these trades?

    porplyzia to zorko
    bugg to shaw

    leaving me $80k in the bank to downgrade devon smith to someone then turn coniglio into ablett next week.

    came 26th this week and had to play morris (ellis and bugg on the pine)

    • Good trades. Will you play Zorko on the field for Porplyzia though as he’s not going to get 90’s very week (not that Porplyzia is!).

      Depends if you need to strengthen your backs or forwards more this week (ie. you could go Bugg -> Darley, Porplyzia -> premium or even Smith -> Zorko this week)

    • who else you got up forward?

  • nice photo nerd.. great article as always tho

  • Going Murphy to GAJ (Three weeks after trading GAJ to Murphy), using Cameron to get me the necessary cash. Bringing in Tommy Walsh on the back of his 85, as I brought Zorko in last week.

    • I’m a Swans supporter and I think you are jumping the gun on Walsh but then again seems like thats the way you roll.

      • I agree, but the only other options I can see are Horlin-Smith or Couch, neither of which are playing. Walsh won’t need to be on the field unless it’s a worst case scenario of injuries and suspensions.

  • Who should i get in ablett or stanton ablett suits my bye plains but stanton is racking it up

  • Awesome write-up. Love numbers, so always love to read this article.

    50 – The percentage of my total trades I have used up to and including this round. Think I have copped nearly every major injury. Had Ball, Carazzo, Goodes, Murphy.

    Was looking at needing another 3 trades to be finally prepared for my bye, but I’ve managed to use a DPP link to get it down to 2. So with that, I traded out Murphy and Greene, moved Chapman from the forward line into the midfield, brought in Delidio in mid (WTF why did I not have him already!!!) and Sexton in the forward line. Team is fully ready for the byes. Have about $200k spare, which I will use to upgrade my shit house Rnd 12 picks (Reid, Shaw) once the Rnd 11 bye is over.

    • I have 12 trades after this week too. I’m hoping it will get me through the season.

  • Need to get Zorko in this week for byes cover and I’v got three options,
    Coniglio, J Mac and Magner???? A GWS exclusion would help the most for byes but not essential, Cogs is looking like the obvious choice as will get rested and has gone up in price more than J Mac but hes in pretty good, what do you guys think ??

    • *”good form” haha

      • I’d go with Magner mate, his days of scoring 90+ are over in my opinion.

        God knows whats going on with JMac but I cant bring myself to boot him just yet as there is still so much more $$$ in him.

  • Murphey to Hayes, Cotchin or Ebert??

    Thoughts?

    • None will be in top 7 MIDS by seasons end!
      Spend the cash, get the best…

    • If you need a Rnd 13 premium mid I would get Ablett, Mitchell, Cotchin, Hayes and Judd in that order.I think at this stage of the year you can forget about everyone else.

  • whats mzungu gibbs johnson chapman and selwoods BE

    • Why dont you do some of your own research and find out instead of listing players and expecting someone to do the work for you…

  • hey guys i was just wondering how many trades we should have left, i have 15 should i be cautious now?

  • Tom Mitchell tearing it up in the seconds. Watch out for him, will be a great downgrade option.

  • James McDonald apparently played reserves on the weekend. It’s looking like it might be the old 2 weeks in 2 weeks out! Guess that was expected.

  • Is it worth holding onto Bachar Houli?

    I picked him up after round 3 and since then has gone:

    70
    81
    61
    81
    63

    He has dropped $70k since i picked him up, should I trade him before he drops more? His breakeven this round is 96.

    • No point waiting on him 2 come good, deledio is in career best form ATM and houli is just lids go man

  • Is clarke a keeper? He seems to be a tagger every time he plays a good team, but then the lower teams he just plays as the floating half back.

    Thoughts???

    • He will average 70-75, and the upgrade targets assuming you have all the guns would be Lake (probably missed the boat now), Heppel, Broughton, Birchall, Suckling, which will all average around 90-95. If you think the extra 20 or so points are worth it then go for it

      • I’ll never understand the logic of people who write a player off who started low but has killed it ever since.

        If they are jutting out premo scores then no shame in paying a premo price just because you played it cautious to begin with!

        • *low as in cheap price.

          cheap cheap

        • I completely agree.

          I think it’s just the sour taste of knowing that other got them so much cheaper.

          I got Lake last week, paid 100K more than I could have, and still think I got a bargain

        • I havent written Lake of mate. He was not cheap for no reason. The reason was that he is UNRELIABLE. And the point i was making is, it may not be worth paying a premo price for an unreliable player.

    • I’m planning on having him as d7 until his bye in rd 12. He should average 75-80 for rest of the year quite easily, so if you wanna save trades by all means keep him as d7/8 for the year.

  • Great write up McRath.

    2 – the number of shoulders Judd, Murphy and Carrazzo have between them.

    • Add walker and luke mitchell and you still only have 2

    • 1 – the number of shoulders they’ll have between them next time Murphy decides to take on Danger.

  • Who is the best forward to trade in for Stanley can afford anyone. Current fwds are Sidebottom, beams, Dangerfield, Franklin, Martin, Porps. Thinking Lewis, zaha or Robbo any suggestions

    • I would go robbo, but i would wait until after this week because of his very high B/E.

      • Cheers first thought was Robbo but would suit my byes better if I went zaha. But Lewis is more unquie and is heaps consistent

        • Lewis never gets over ~90, I want someone with 120 potential.\

          Until he shows he can be mega premo I wouldn’t get him.

          But that’s just me, I’m risk averse.

          • So you don’t want a player who consistantly performs at his average (80-100), and prefer someone that can score a 120, or just as likely a 60, because you are risk averse?

            Eh?

    • ROK is quietly killing it atm!

      Also Chappy looking the goods.

    • Stanley to Stanley?

  • Zorko in for Greene (lots of cash, suspended but gun), Shiel (B/E 40), McDonald (isn’t playing but gun) or Hall (not much cash and bad JS)?

    • Well mate,

      Firstly work out where you need him more.

      I’m guessing you have a ton of DPPs in the FWD line but not many in the middle so plonking him in the centre will create a very handy DPP link for the bye rounds.

      Decision 1 sorted.

      THEN, wait until teams are released on Thursday to see which of the 3 GWS rookies are playing and decide from there.

  • Is Ablett likely to get back to his 120+ average or not?

  • Might get gibbs in for murphy this week Ballsy move and i might have to cop a donut with stanley this week unless couch or kennedy play. If Neeld decides to let Couchy play i will downgrade stanley to him and upgrade Murphy to Ablett, Hoping for da best :/

  • who should i get rid of for Zorko:

    porps
    D.Smith
    J.Mac
    Magner

    any advice is welcome

    • I’d keep JMac and Smith. Porps is the obvious choice for me – shares the same bye and doesn’t have great DT potential anyway. Magner would give you a dual-position link though, which is handy. And Neeld insists on using him as a tagger, so he has limited DT potential at this point.

  • Swan to Mitchell or watson???

    watson probly average a bit more but i get mitchell super cheap

    • Swan and Watson have the same bye as well, which helps, but Mitchell’s price is awfully tempting at the moment.

  • Swan to Watson or Mitchell

    Watson will props average a bit more but Mitchell is super cheap??

  • just a quick question is it suitable bringing in s.selwood and copping a donut or bring in hayes or cotchin?

  • How many premos do you reckon people should have at this stage of the season. Just had a look at Carnablues – the number one ranked team and I would say he has 18 with 3 other potential keepers in M Clarke, Horsley and Giles.

    I am ranked 20,000 but only 300 points off being in the top 5000 – That’s only one bad captain choice. On the Anzac week when people used the loop hole to have Swan as Captain, I had Barlow against the Gold Coast when his form dropped off. That cost me almost 300 points difference.

    • Sorry I had 2 dud captain weeks. Goddard got 68 the week Swan got 170+ and then Barlow against Gold Coast the week after.

    • All depends how you Classify it.

      The only non premiums for me are Golby, Horsely, HMac, Giles and Didak. But saying that, HMac would be considered a premium to most people, while Giles and Horsely are putting out numbers equal to or surpassing, many of their respective premium contemporaries.

      You’ve then also got guys like Hargrave, Grimes and Didak, who are previously premium, and for various reaonsons (almost exclusively injury) showed too much value to overlook.

      I suppose to clarify it, I have 2 guys in my starting lineup who I don’t intend to have at the completion of the season (this doesn’t include Barlow who despite his price, is a premium, but also won’t be in my team come seasons end): Golby and Horsely. I’d expect most top line coaches have no more than 3 or at most 4 if they are hell bent on cashing in their cows at peak price.

    • I think 18 is about right depending as what you classify as a premo, my current starting line up is as follows:

      Deledio, Goddard, Birchall, Broughton, Heppell, Waters, MORRIS

      Ablett, Pendlebury, Jelwood, Boyd, Rockliff, HORSELY

      Cox, GILES

      Franklin, Sidey, Robbo, Danger, Martin, Stevie J, ZORKO

      So pretty much 18 indisputable premos, only 2 ‘mid-pricers’ i started with were Danger & Waters. I steered clear of people like Hargrave, Lake, etc as i prefer to have the best possible team i can by the end of year (all premos in the top 10 of their respective positions excl. ruck (top 5)) and didn’t think those blokes could do that.

  • Here’s a number: $11.4 million – the current value of my team. No one in the current top 200 is even close. I’m playing Moneyball and going for the ‘Stephen Bradbury’ strategy! (Ranked about 5000, way off the pace but optimistically, it’s not insurmountable)

    • If your team is making that much money I’d suggest your starting line up wasn’t that strong and you’ll probably struggle to catch up. That said, you’re doing better than I am on ranking and cash generation, so maybe I should be taking your advice rather than the other way around :p.