The Numbers – Round 7

Numbers… it’s what DT is all about. Price changes; averages; break-evens… the list goes on. After a huge week, where we saw some massive scores – coaches’ teams are starting to look superior as we start planning for the Multi Bye Rounds. With a round spanning 4 days, there is plenty to talk about from the weekend’s games. Here we go.

Let’s have a looks at this week by the numbers…

4Goals scored by St Kilda goal sneak Stephen Milne against the Blues at the weekend. He was at his aggravating best; annoying the Carlton defenders and finding space to help give his team the 4 points.

6You’d expect this to be a positive stat i.e. goals scored by a single player in a game. But alas, it is not. It was the final score of Tiger, Brandon Ellis in Richmond’s 29 point upset over Sydney on Saturday. For the coaches (me included) who played him on field, his 3 handball, green vested game was simply disappointing as his cash making and point scoring appears to have now dried up. For those looking to downgrade a player – Ellis has put his hand up to make the decision easier for you.

13Crows players to kick a goal in Saturday’s upset win over the Cats. With a bevy of scoring options, Adelaide went onto win by 50 points, winning most statistical categories in the process – most significantly scoring shots, which they won 26-19.

27Final score difference in the Giants first win against fellow expansion outfit Gold Coast. Whilst the stats are remarkably close, the Giants outperformed the Suns in the second half to run away with the win. In what was the first of many clashes between the two young clubs, both put on a decent showing without several key players.

51Average losing margin by Melbourne Demons in 2012. To date, their 0-7 start is among the worst by a new coach in history, with their best performance coming in the form of an 18 point loss to St Kilda in R5. Sitting below Gold Coast in 18th spot on the ladder, their 56.80 % has them clear wooden spooners at this stage. Mark Neeld will need to do something amazing to turn their season around. Maybe he could try picking players on form… Tom Couch anyone?

52Pearce Hanley was on fire up until half time, until his hamstring gave way and forced him out of the game with a half-century. The improving Irishman has been solid in 2012, however scans early this week will determine whether or not he spends any time on the sidelines.

76 – Points scored by super-sub Dave Ellard for the Blues on Monday night. His 3.1 goals and 13 touches gave Carlton new life in the fourth quarter and must be close to a record for the most points scored in a quarter by a green vested player.

123.52 Round average of Suns emerging midfielder Dion Prestia. After finding plenty of ball against Freo, he amassed 11 tackles to go with his 26 disposals to finish with a huge 127 against the Giants. Along with David Swallow and Harley Bennell, he completes a trio of young stars that will dominate in the AFL for years to come.

50,000Coaches who would’ve had their hand in their mouth as they watched HMac limp off in North’s loss to the Bulldogs. Thankfully, the injury appears to be better than first thought, with the club saying he could play as soon as this weekend.

325,000Amount of Melburnians who tuned in to see Monday’s game. Whilst still considered a success with over 38,000 fans turning up to see the Blues go down to a rampant Saints; the coverage on Channel 7 was trumped by Channel 9’s The Voice. If Monday Night Footy is to be pursued in the future, they need to either take a look at the TV guide; or they could always continuously play footage of Nick Riewoldt singing during each ad break… Actually I think I’d rather watch The Voice too if that was the other option.

Send me your ‘Numbers’ for the week @McRathDT

The Benchmark

Kudos to Graeme, coach of The Fruit & Vegies – who, despite his questionable team name, put in a ripper score this week. His boys fell agonisingly short of the 2500 mark this week, taking the # 1 spot with a score of 2481. His backline is settled now with Lids, God, Suckling, Broughts, Hargrave and Shaw; His midfield of Stanton, Swan, Boyd and Thompson gave him the best scoring 4-mid premium combo of the week; his Cox/Giles ruck combo worked a treat; with his all-star forward line performing admirably to get him the chocolates in R7. With an overall ranking of 568, this coach is well poised for a crack at the top prize.

Whore of the Week

The WotW trophy wouldn’t be complete without a nomination from perennial premium Matthew Boyd. His 162 points against North on the weekend was outstanding, with him at his whorish best. Boyd totalled 44 disposals (including 32 kicks), 7 marks and 4 tackles. With a game against Suns next week, watch for another big total from the hardened Bulldog.

Coach’s Pet

This week sees yet another 2nd gamer top the list for most traded in player. Mature-aged Freo defender Lee Spurr was the talk of Freo town at the start of the year; and after finally getting his chance, he doesn’t look like letting it go. He scored a positive 69 on the weekend after his sub-affect debut. With his job security looking good, he appears to be the best backline downgrade option at a time where options are few and far between.

Value Pick

Based on a simple Dollars/Points ratio, I give you a simple way to display value (admittedly biased towards rookies given their low starting cost).

After being one of the most traded out players in R3, Bulldog Tory Dickson has officially come back to haunt his former coaches. With a score of 105 on Sunday, his 3rd game brings his R7 price to $139,400. This gives him a weekly DP ratio of $1327.62/pt. With a  game against the flailing Suns this weekend, he must surely be considered a decent downgrade target with his still low price and low BE.

The Round Up

Highlights – AFL-wise, the round had everything – with some big wins, huge upsets and a Monday night thriller. DT-wise there were some huge scores, with Boyd (162), Swan (143) and Stanton (140) unsurprisingly at the top of the list. It was also good to see Cogs get the rising star nod with a positive 108 points. Also, special shout out to Giles who is looking every bit the ruck keeper as he topped the ton again v Gold Coast for 107.

Lowlights – Michael Barlow’s inability to find the ball; Christensen going down with a quad injury a week after trading him in; as well as midfield stars Murphy (68), Rockliff (73) and JP Kennedy (83) failing to register a decent score.

Team McRath – I’ll keep it short at the risk of sounding suicidal. I had another shit week. Things aren’t going our way and its becoming apparent that smashing through trades like Kim Duthie does football players is not helping my cause (although it did get Kim a name for herself, albeit not a great one). It’s back to basics this week with a downgrade to get in a promising rookie and it’s time to get in a proven midfielder to steady the sinking ship that is my midfield. Hopefully this gives my team the push it needs to get back into the game. Otherwise I’ll be looking forward to season 2013 as I look to ride off 2012.

A Grand Final replay should provide a great start to the week this Friday, as top 4 fancies Hawks and Freo face off; as well as Carlton and Adelaide. With the half way mark now approaching for season 2012, we can’t afford to be complacent. So remember to check the late news on Friday and keep your eyes peeled for the Friday afternoon team list updates before making any sure-fire trades.

Feedback appreciated as always. Also – if you’re not already… follow me in the Twittersphere: @McRathDT

 

234 Comments

  • what does everyone think about these trades

    Bugg to Duffield
    and
    Ellis to Smedts

    • Bugg to Duffield seems sideways to me…

      • who should I get then that has a round 12 bye, there’s only shaw and heppel but I don’t feel confident on either. Also what do you think of ellis to Smedts?

      • Bugg to Duffield is not sideways. Duffield is a premium back. I have had him from day one. He has only had one bad game so far this year against the Suns.

  • Stuck for ideas, any suggestions?

    Have 17 trades and only $5k in the bank
    Am ranked 263

    B – Deledio, Heppell, Broughton, Malceski, Hargrave, Clarke, Bugg (Morris, Ellis)
    M – Swan, Pendlebury, Boyd, Barlow, Mitchell, Horsley (McDonald, Shiel)
    R – Cox, Giles (Redden, Stephenson)
    F – Franklin, Robinson, Sidebottom, Zaharakis, Martin, Chapman, Treloar (Hall, Pfeiffer

    Cheers :D

    • trade ellis to spurr and upgrade bugg to suckling or birch

    • That is a very strong team mate.

      Just get your thoughts/trades right for the bye’s. If you do this then I reckon you wont be too far away later in the year ;-)

    • Ceski>Goddard for the following reasons:

      1. God is cheap
      2. You have lots of Round 12 bye defs
      3. Ceski is a serious injury risk

      Please don’t do this trade, or I’ll never catch you…

  • Can I just say I’m amazed at the amount of people that didn’t start with Smedts considering there wasn’t a whole host of options back or forward at the start of the year.

    • Couldn’t agree more, he was one of the first defender rookies i got. Great value and going to get heaps of games.

    • I am totally the opposite. At the start of the year you had Clarke $141,000, Bugg, Ellis and Morris. Throw in Bower and KHunt and I cant see why Smedts was ahead of any of these guys.

    • What the player that has missed 2 games and has only 1 score over 50, Im surprised as many people have him!

    • I went Clarke, Bugg, Morris, Ellis

    • I started with him in the forward line and Tomlinson in the back line. Gave good DPP from week to week and the option to move team around when needed.

    • What you mean to say is, “I am really pissed off that I started with Smedts and now others are using him as a downgrade target and they are getting him for bugger all more than I paid after making some cash off another cow, just when he’s starting to look the goods.”

      Suffer.

    • Agree with the others on Smedts Albert, plenty of better options down back especially.
      I think his bad history of injuries may have played a part (it did for me)……..having said that his JS seems pretty good (only missed those 2 games with shoulder soreness).
      I am now considering bringing him in as my D9!!

  • johnson or chapman whose better?

  • kennedy to suckling using dpp switch? good trade/ bad trade?
    at the moment i have been playing six rookies a week which is too much i think
    smith and treloar i am happy with and same with horse and mcdonald. it is just bugg and morris that i dont feel confident in.
    will suckling be a good option? or just go kennedy to spurr this week?

  • Hey guys Im a bit confused on what to do for the bye rounds and how to get my team right.

    Currently got 100,000 in the bank with 16 trades left

    My Current team
    Def: Delidio, Goddard, Heppel, Waters, Hargrave, Clarke, Bugg (Ellis,morris)
    Mid: Swan, Ablett, Boyd, Rocky, Cogs,Horsley (Mcdonald,Magner)
    Forw: Franklin, Beams,Martin,Robinson,Zaha,Sidey Trealor (Hall, Dickson)

    Currently ranked 655
    Thinking of going ellis to spurr and bugg to suckling.

    Thoughts?

    • for your forwards you need to get rid of hall for a rd 11 bye
      for your defense you should do ellis to smedts or spurr (smedts ahead of spurr imo)
      for your mids get rid of cogs fora round 12 or 13

    • Ellis to Spurr, Hall to someone decent.

    • Lachy,
      You are on the money with your suggested trades. Bugg is tough one at present and reckon there is benefit to your team by upgrading him. Will give you 3 gun defenders with round 13 bye, but the best defenders are all from that round IMO.
      Don’t trade Hall out yet like Steveo suggested, do that before round 13. More money to be made and at present it won’t make you much money and won’t gain you many points given who you have playing up forward.
      Cogs to a round 12 mid guns in a couple of weeks would suit you best IMO.

  • Does getting rid of Bartel and getting Mitchell seem sideways?

    I have 200K in the bank and Mitchell is ‘Cheap as Chips’ atm.

    Bartel has been dodgy, and the rest of my midfield is Swan, Pendles, Ablett, Horsley and Greene.

    Not sure who to upgrade/downgrade Ellis to, has to be under 389K though…

    Thoughts?

    • I’m pretty keen to get stanton at the moment but I will probably be better off getting a premium who is at the bottom of a price trough.

      • Ablett will most likely be $560k next week if you don’t have him. Murphy will be sub $500k.

  • Is 13 trades left after this round, with a plan to use 4-6 in byes not enough for finals and rest of season?

  • Pussay Patrol
    $300,000 in the bank, should I wait till the bye rounds to trade? what are some good upgrades?
    Round Score: 2,169

    DEF: B Deledio (104), H Scotland (98), M Suckling (127), B Waters (81), R Hargrave (92), T Bugg (58), B Lake (109), J Adcock (0), S Darley (0)

    MID: S Pendlebury (119), K Simpson (93), J Selwood (110), T Greene (96), L Jetta (64), K Horsley (95), J Magner (76), J McDonald (0)

    RUCK: D Cox (131), H McIntosh (66), J Giles (107), J Redden (0)

    FWD: M Robinson (87), P Dangerfield (82), D Beams (122), B Whitecross (88), D Smith (73), A Treloar (95), T Dickson (105), A Kennedy (60), D Zorko (26)

    • OK. This is going to sound really harsh. I am soory if you take offence but the question needs to be asked.

      How can you have 12 trades left? You have 3 rookies playing on the field in the forwards and the mids!
      Can you please list the trade you have made so far? I am blown away. You could possibly have less premiums now than when you first created your team.

      • lol yeah got a bit trigger happy and made some stupid trades
        OUT Thomas ($330,700) IN Beams ($482,900)
        OUT van Berlo ($413,600) IN Horsley ($119,800)
        ROUND 6
        OUT Cornes ($355,700) IN Robinson ($484,400)
        OUT Fyfe ($412,300) IN Simpson ($489,500)
        ROUND 5
        OUT Cunningham ($85,800) IN Treloar ($104,200)
        OUT Palmer ($316,300) IN McDonald ($98,700)
        ROUND 4
        OUT Bate ($237,100) IN Whitecross ($412,000)
        OUT McKernan ($229,400) IN Scotland ($486,000)
        ROUND 3
        OUT Hale ($342,800) IN Cornes ($330,300)
        OUT Black ($449,400) IN Greene ($134,700)
        ROUND 2
        OUT Folau ($115,800) IN Thomas ($291,800)
        OUT Redden ($540,100) IN Magner ($85,800)

        • Wowsers buddy!!! LOL

          That is amazing. There are multiple guys you have brought in and shipped off a couple of weeks later. The one that I keep looking at is Redden to Magner in round 2.

          Knock yourself out. It is fun to trade aye!

          • haha yeah fail! oh well win some lose some. Was planing on not trading this week but definitely need another prem mid. Thinking stanton as he is ideal for captain will continue to go up and has a few low ranked teams coming up, but also thinking of trying to pick up a lower priced premo or again just waiting till the bye rounds so I can do some strategic trades.. haha too many options not sure what to do

          • what’s your team? and how many trades have you got left? http://blog.footynerd.com/ check that site out as well saves you having to copy paste individually or type out players names and also shows you which player have which bye weeks

          • The team is called Ridley United. I have 16 trades left but this is running perfectly as the team is almost set.

            Footynerd is gold mate. I have been aware of it for a very long time.

            I am assuming you are young. The thing I enjoy is you are fully aware of the trades you have made and can look back and go wow, what was I thinking there lol. At least you are having a blast. Quite a few ‘rookie’ mistakes but should set you up better for the start of next year.

          • haha I played last year but before this year I’ve never really been keen on AFL, DT is good as its given me more of an incentive to watch games and hopefully I’ll still be able to win my league and go far in eliminator

      • Now that’s a trigger finger!!! Bet you’ve had fun. :-)

        • haha not really considering 4 of those were wasted on trading in then out 2 players, 2 trades wasted on dud rookies (folua and Cunningham), traded out redden for after week two (fail) I can confidently say that I wasted minimum 7 lol

          • Haha, yeah i can see what you are says. I’m betting that you will double trade this week though, despite what u said about planning not to trade.
            Can you upgrade Jetta to a gun mid, by trading someone like Kennedy down???

          • haha don’t encourage me Blue boys, but yeah thinking most likely stanton for either magner or jetta. With him as a captain when he kills it makes your team pretty hard to beat

          • I’m going to make an embarrassing admission in order to demonstrate a point.

            I own Israel Folau.

            Now that you’ve finished laughing, I would point out that he scored 58 this week, actually went up significantly in value, and takes a b/e of -23 or thereabouts into next round.

            He was a poor selection, no doubt. I was lured by some of his form in the preseason, but the main factor was guaranteed job security. Doesn’t help if you score 4.

            The point is, trading him out doesn’t eradicate the mistake. It sets the mistake in stone, Darius. It locks the f*&k up in. If Izzy manages to crack 50 the next two weeks, he might make me 80-100K yet. And it won’t have been any worse a selection than Clay Smith.

            A few years ago I had this guy named Relton Roberts in my team for the whole goddamn year. He never earned enough money to justify trading him. So I didn’t.

            I’m sure you’ll be more circumspect with your trades next year mate.

          • that’s nice….

          • I also think I’ve gotta be in the running for the coveted ‘highest ranked team carrying Israel Folau’ award :p

          • Haha naaaaice, who should I trade out for Stanton and who is a good round 12 defender heppel or shaw possibly more;)? I have 6 round 11 byes so need to get rid of two minimum

    • I thought I was doing bad with 16 :\

  • whats everyone thoughts on cam delaney from the kangaroos he is $104.200 and scores of 56 and 56

    • I think that with Nathan Grima and Lachie Hansen playing in the magoo’s that the JS must be a serious concern.

      One of the rules I have. I will never pick very unique downgrade targets. There is way too much coverage now for anyone to slip under the radar. The only decent downgrade targets this week in the backs are the ones that keep getting mentioned.

    • North have a terrible history re these sort of players. North have a lot of players similar to him, reckon he will really struggle to hold his spot. Not likely to score much more than he has either.

  • My Def looks like this:
    Deledio, Goddard, Broughton, Hargrave, Malceski, Bugg, Clarke (Morris, Ellis)

    I have over $300k in the bank, should I upgrade Ellis straight to Lake or downgrade him to Spurr? Leaning towards the former.

    • a double trade of bugg -> Lake/suckling/scotland or any premium defender then ellis -> spurr is what i’m doing.
      But if you just want 1 trade then go ellis to lake

  • Does getting rid of Bartel and getting Mitchell seem sideways?

    I have 200K in the bank and Mitchell is ‘Cheap as Chips’ atm.

    Bartel has been dodgy, and the rest of my midfield is Swan, Pendles, Ablett, Horsley and Greene.

    Not sure who to upgrade/downgrade Ellis to, has to be under 389K though…

    Thoughts?

  • Great article Rathy

    Looking to trade in either Beams or Robinson? Beams is more unique and in my opinion has the higher ceiling but Robinson has cracked the ton more times.

    Thoughts?

    • shouldn’t make too much difference, but for your forward line or midfield? What’s your current set up in the two?

      • Probably gonna trade out Shiel for either beams or robbo so i can DPP with a fwd and have that link.

        Mid: Stanton, Boyd, Murphy, Rockliff, Selwood, Horsley (JMac, Shiel)
        Fwd: Sidebottom, Franklin, Martin, Chapman, D. Smith, A. Kennedy, Treolar, (J. Cameron, T. Couch)

  • Doggies Vs the suns on sat night worth it putting dickson ahead of porpz? Might score 4+ goals this week versing a pretty crap team.

  • With S.Reid’s value going down faster than the Greek economy, what do you think about a sideways trade to Patton who will apparently make his debut in rd 9 against the bombers ?
    Too early perhaps…..?

    • Get Zorko if he gets 60+

      • good point, actually I will probably get zorko in if he scores 30 points.
        I think the full forward from the local auskick team is getting more possesions than Reid.

  • Great write up. Great read every read every week.
    Hey so I have hmac and am going to cop a donut if he docent play. I have traded Ellis to spurr and want to do an upgrade as I have 273k and am thinking one of he following
    Bugg/Morris –> Scotland/suckling
    Sheil to mitchel
    Devon smith to sidearse

    Team is
    Lids godd duffman lake hargrave birch bugg Morris spurr

    Abblet thompson pendels Barlow Selwood Greene sheil horse

    Giles hmac redden big o

    Franklin Martin pav prearce smith trelor smedts hall Danger

    Any thoughts ?

    • bugg to suckling looks good

    • if you’re worried about a H-mac donut now then you’ll be very worried having at least 2 premo defenders donuts in round 13. Shiel to mitchell for mine, unless the byes don’t worry you

    • How many trades left? Waters could be an option

      • Danger on bench? lol

        • Think suckers is better than waters and less injury prone. Um yea thinking about Mitch but Greene and the horse are putting out better scores than bugg. Also yea byes in real worked in as I should win all 3 in my league especially 13 as he has his whole starting mids on the pine that week hahh.

      • Oh 17 left

        • Do you think you will win this week seamen?

          • Um idk maybe predicted to but not with a donut. Probe better to try and strengthen my team overall though

  • Swan or Ablett for shiel
    can only afford if i go Ellis to Spurr

    if i dont go Ellis to Spurr, i can get any mid for shiel except stants, swan and ablett

    Thoughts??

    • between swanny and ablett go the pig but if you already have pendles then consider stant.

      • FMDT,
        Can you explain why if he has Pendles that he should go Stanton over Swan?? They have the same bye so ruled that out.

    • Forgot to mention my other premo mids are pendles boyd and watson, so getting stants or swan gives me 3 premo mids with r12 bye

  • got enough rookies in defence with ellis, bugg, morris
    Got a question:
    1. Ellis(out) Spurr(In)

    2. Ellis(out) Spurr(In)
    Bugg(Out) Shaw(in)

    Thinking of goin with 2

  • Shiel to Zorko for the mid/fwd link and MacDonald to Ablett?

    • sounds like a plan stan

    • This is great, but I would wait for a week for 3 reasons:

      1) Zorko has 1 more week till is required
      2) Shiel and JMac are due to rise $14K and $49K respectively this week
      3)Ablett will cost you $580K this week, but next week only around $563K.

      Do the trades, but not this week.

  • Heyy guyssss!!! In fwd have
    Robbo, franklin, sidebottom, waite, danger, smith and adams

    should i trade smith to beams or make a trade in defence???

  • Hard decision guys

    Sheil to Stanton, ablett or pendles???

    Thanks in advance

    • depends who’s in your mids

    • stant looks best he’s been averaging 155 if you take out the 98 and 77 where he got capt.
      If you reallywant gazza consider him next week or the week after his price will probably drop. expect 90-105 for 2-3 more weeks.
      Pendles looks ok.

      So currently:
      1 Stant
      2 Pendles
      3 Ablett

      Weeks ahead to come:
      1/2 Stant/gazza
      3 pendles

    • personally i’d just go stanton

    • Stanton looks like hitting 150 in his next 3 games whilst he sits on a lawn chair drinking his 3 golden stubbies. Richmond, GWS and Melbourne. I won’t even be surprised if he cracks 200 in one of those games you know?

      Gee I love that I got him pre-season :D

  • Is it just me, or is Bugg going the way of Magner? I swear from the 15 minutes I watched of the game, Bugg was tagging Ablett.

  • hey has any1 watched the suns vs GWS game. i was wondering where cornes was getting the ball and what postition he was is most of the game. good thing i held onto him bout to sell him for beams. And also was going to put him on bench and Dev smith on field

  • what is worth getting all right first (full of keeps) mids or fwds??

    • mids cuz it will impact your scoring more. (Higher scorers you dont see a fwd scoring 193 points)

  • For everyone trading in Spurr some bad news, Lower had 26 possessions on the weekend (remember him) and Silvagni and Walters are looking strong too.

    His JS is looking shaky at best.

    • Yep, expect lower to be in soon. Won’t be getting Spurr. This lack of back and forward downgrade options is killing me

  • Aaron Hall had a cunt of a game on the weekend and expect him to NOT BE NAMED again this weekend.

    You are an absolute flowering spud Hally.

  • worth getting in mitchel when horsely and greene are doing pretty well atm ?

  • Is it time to give Hall the arse? He would be handy come byes except for the fact he isn’t playing! I have Smedts in the backline and heaps of cash so can double upgrade back there by ditching hall and Bugg.

    • What’s actually happened with Hall? It’s like he has dropped off the face of the Earth, I’ve heard no word about him from GCS or any AFL articles.

  • Is having 12 trades going into the multibye rounds alright

  • This trade week is a dilema –

    – Bugg and Mohr (pine) out – one of Scotland/Shaw/Suckles/Waters & Spurr (pine) IN.

    Def would look like this after trades above –

    Birchall, Heppell, Goddard, Scotland, Deledio, Hargrave, Clarke – Spurr & L Brown (cover)

    I just feel that this double trade leaves me short of cover with Spurr’s JS. I have another rookie on the pine that hasn’t played yet. Alternatively i could upgrade Bugg to Lake with one trade and leave Mohr in as cover. – save a trade.

    Could actually swap Shiel for Lake using DPP wih L Brown.

    Def would be Birchall, Heppell, Goddard, Lake, Deledio, Hargrave, Clarke – Bugg & Mohr (cover)

    Absorb L Brown into the Mids

    Boyd, Pendles, Muphy, Mitchell, Ablett, Horsley – JMac & L Brown as cover.

    Then i can look at upgrading the fwd line in the next couple of weeks.

    Any advice much appreciated.

  • Should I upgrade to Lake or Hargrave?

    • You know i was thinking the same thing, and most top teams have hargrave so if you are keen to take a risk and play catch up, id suggest lake. thats what ill be doing anyways