Tbetta’s Bullets: Round 7

Note: Abbreviations used in this article include:

JS: Job Security – the perceived likelihood that a player will hold their spot in the side.

BE: Break Even – the estimated score required for the player to maintain their current price.

MBR’s: Multi Bye Rounds – the Rounds where the byes take place, between Rounds 11 and 13.

 

  • Boom

Apparently, the Law of Averages applies to fantasy AFL. Or maybe I’m thinking of Karma…? Whatever. The point is, we had a few really shoddy weeks there, and now we’re finally reaping the rewards of our DT nous with some monster scoring of late.

A lot of this has to do with the heightened scoring of our on-field rookies. Traded-in beauties such as Greene (96), Treloar (95) and Horsley (95) gave us much more to smile about than Magner (76), Shiel (64), Kennedy (60) and Bugg (58) this week. The lack of injuries to the DT elite didn’t hurt either (see what I did there?), and even McIntosh’s serious-looking injury was heralded as just a one-week affliction.

As we all know, it was a massive scoring round this week. I mean, when par is around 2250 (would have placed you in top 14,000 scores for the round), you know things are going well. But to be honest, I preferred it when there was a little carnage…. To rise up the rankings in a big week is so difficult, because everything has to go your way. Boosting your ranking in a ‘down’ week is much easier, providing you negotiate the minefield successfully.

Hopefully, Karma doesn’t get me on that one.

  • Ghosts of Trades Past…

Sometimes, words seem inept; especially when I attempt to convey how deep my hatred for Shaw and Broughton run. I would compare it to how you feel about the bed you just smashed you shin on in the dark. Or how you feel about the lone mosquito slowly murdering you as you try to sleep. Or the feeling of biting into an apple and realising that it’s rotten. That is what the pain of past trades can do to you – it can jade your opinions, manifest your disappointment and regret and morph it into an unconditional hatred of the player involved.

I’d avoided the Shaw rollercoaster of the previous couple of years, but somehow convinced myself to purchase a ticket this season. Of course, his first three weeks garnered an average of 67.7 points per game, followed by a cheeky hamstring strain. For me, and many others, it was an easy decision to promptly trade him out without any guilt. After missing just the two weeks (as advertised – the one time I don’t trust the clubs on injuries…) he returns BETTER THAN BEFORE and scores 111 and 113 back to back. Great. Can’t wait to watch him run rampant over the course of the season.

 

Don’t even get me started on Broughton… Too late. I still can’t decide whether the Brough is a massive troll or Ross Lyon is, but his Jekyll and Hyde bullsh*t is really starting to get to me. The story is all too familiar – he plays his first two games as a lock-down defender and scores a paltry 59 and 67. Obviously, I believe I’ve made a massive error in judgement and bitterly trade him out whilst torturing a Ross Lyon-esque doll with matches, needles and sulphuric acid. Next thing I know, Fyfe goes down (bad enough on its own) and Broughton soaks up his midfield time. Since then, he’s been travelling at 94 points per game, and I find it incredibly hard not to pray for an LTI.

The moral of the story? Trust your judgement. You’re a good coach. You have the entire DT Talk community helping you every step of the way. You’ve put in the time over the pre-season. Just trust your judgement.

What trades have you pulled this season that are haunting your every waking minute? Let me know in the comments!

  • Trade-Ezy

Early days, I know, but let’s examine some of the more popular trades being talked about and executed this week.

Ellis OUT – Spurr IN

Just a mere two hours since lockout ended, hundreds of coaches have logged this exact trade, making it easily the most popular trade so far. It’s simple, yet clever. Many of us have both Morris and Ellis sitting on the bench, but we don’t need both. Seeing as Ellis’ 6 points in Round 7 has basically guaranteed that he won’t be any fatter anytime in the next six or so weeks, it’s time to go.

Spurr is far from the perfect replacement; queries on his JS and scoring ability still remain. But the reality is, he’s the best we’ve got – and certainly the best rookie defender coming our way anytime soon. He also has the added bonus of being a R12 bye rookie, which is particularly useful in a R13 dominated backline. Lock and load, and pocket the $105k.

Magner/Shiel OUT Premo IN

With a distinct lack of half-decent midfield downgrade options, we’ll have to look skyward here. Magner and Shiel are both around the $280k mark and are the closest of the ‘popular’ rookie bunch to their BEs. We need to start upgrading soon, so one has to go.

Assuming you can’t get to Stanton ($588,200, 135.3 avg) before he shoots up in price another $30k after Round 8, you’re left with couple of fallen premiums. Jack Redden ($451,300, 94.7avg) is back into last season’s form, scoring 120 and 121 in his last two. A BE of 54 means he won’t be this cheap for long. If you’re not convinced, maybe I could tempt you with some Sam Mitchell ($473,500, 106.6 avg)? He’s basically bottomed-out now, and he is an absolute steal at this price.

  • Makers and Breakers

Welcome back to the Makers, and form, Matthew Boyd. His previous three-round average was a shade under 98, so the 162 points he earned this week is very encouraging for his numerous coaches. It was a typical Boyd performance, racking up 44 touches primarily by foot and contributing modestly in most other scoring categories. The Roos chose to go head-to-head with him, so hopefully this continues – the recent effectiveness of Griffen should ensure that he snags the first tag, at least in the near future.

Nic Naitanui’s injury is no good for the Eagles, but it’s doing wonders for the fantasy value of Dean Cox! In NicNat’s absence, Coxy has scored 110 and now 131, thanks to less time spent isolated up forward and more time linking up through the middle of the ground. Cox is now the highest scoring ruckman this year, which has to be a win for those who selected him – despite his average dropping almost 10 points off last year’s pace.

Dane Swan is fast reconfirming his title as the must-have midfielder, scoring his 7th consecutive 100+ score this weekend; a handy 143. His status as the most-picked Captain this week (20.6%) was warranted, given he scored the 2nd-most of all comers. Interesting stat alert; Swanny didn’t register a tackle against the Lions. He’s now cracked the $600k barrier, meaning you’ll have to pull some bumper trades to get him in if you don’t have him already.

He’s been ticking along at a steady pace all year, and it’s about time Ivan Maric got the recognition he deserves. His 102 in Round 7 took his season average to 94.2 and his three-round average to 107.3! He’s also increased almost $140k on his starting price, whilst overtaking McIntosh and Ryder to have scored the second most of all ruckmen this season. And, he has a flowing mullet. Legend.

The last spot in the Makers was hard to pick this week. It could have gone to wunderkinds Giles (107) or Horsley (95); accumulators Stanton (140) and Beams (122) wouldn’t have looked out of place either. Ultimately, I went with Scott Thompson based on his red-hot recent form. The quiet achiever has scored 138, 128 and 138 consecutively, re-establishing himself as a premier option for your midfield. Don’t forget Adelaide’s draw either, as it promises plenty more scores like this in the future.

There’s no bigger week-killer then having your unique midfielder injured early in the match, and it’s particularly devastating when this tragedy hits in the middle of one of these huge scoring weeks. Priddis’ concussion is just that. The 3.8% of coaches who own him would be reeling from the 17 points he scored before being red-vested – you just can’t make up those lost points in a round like this.

Is there a bigger sinking feeling than going into the final match of a Round, carrying a hefty score and praying for a huge score from your Captain to put you amongst the DT elite… and then watching them fail? Many Murphy owners experienced this dejected feeling, even without the Captain’s badge assigned to him. The good news is that non-owners will be able to snap Smurph up on the cheap over the next fortnight, as he goes into Round 8 with a BE of 170. There is no good news for current owners.

Heppell was in the top 10 most traded-in players this week, probably thanks to a great vein of form which saw him average a clean 115 points in his last three outings. Unfortunately, Hepp D returned serve with his poorest game of the season, earning just the 61 points. It was only the 3rd match in his career where he has failed to register a tackle.

It’s time for Ellis to go. Brandon was green-vested for just the 6 DT points this week, meaning his growth as a Cash Cow is essentially over for at least the next month and a half. It’s disappointing, because his JS was and is looking fantastic, particularly for a draftee not from the Giants. Spare a thought for those who played him over teammate Morris, who totalled 74 points in a full hit-out.

The 9% of coaches who took a chance on Hawthorn livewire Cyril Rioli will be ruing the decision to select the inconsistent forward. Cyril can light up a match, but he’s struggling to be effective fantasy-wise this season. His 43 points from Round 7 takes his season average to 72.7 – significantly less than the 87 per game he manufactured last season. It’s possibly at the stage where it’s too late even to cut your losses.

  • Things to Think About….

With the MBR’s fast approaching, now is the time to start thinking about your strategy for Rounds 11, 12 and 13. We now have plenty of data to know which players we can rely on, which trade targets we are convinced of, and how many trades we are comfortable parting with. As for right now, it’s just a case of giving yourself a rough plan to follow, or at least refer to, in the coming weeks. Here are a couple of preliminary things to think about:

1. Get the bulk of your upgrading done in the next few weeks. There’s no point upgrading to a premium that’s just going to have a bye a week later, so get them done asap and make them worthwhile trades before the MBRs are upon us.

2. Just a follow-on point from above – think about whether you’ll trade in between Rounds 10 and 11. As I mentioned, it’s hard to justify upgrading to a Premium as they’ll have a bye just around the corner, so you might as well wait and save a trade. What you do need to think about, is whether you’ll trade at all. My position is to hold, provided you’re mentally tough enough to idly walk into those R11 donuts.

The other option is to trigger a downgrade here, and free up some cash so you can make 3 trades (which we’re allowed just prior to Rounds 11, 12 and 13) into an downgrade-upgrade-upgrade (DUU for short) scenario, rather than a downgrade-downgrade-upgrade (DDU). Ideally, this would be a R11 rookie (a rookie Giant like Shiel, Devon Smith, Coniglio, etc…) down to another playing rookie, given the excess of R11 rookies in our squads.

3. Start looking at which R11 Premiums you want to trade in, with plugging holes in R12 the ultimate goal. For example: Shaw, Broughton, Clarke and Spurr have you eating a couple of R12 donuts in defence. This is where you might look to downgrade Spurr to a R11 rookie (let’s say Sam Darley is ready at that stage), while you upgrade Clarke to Waters. In this scenario, you have avoided two donuts while simultaneously executing an upgrade.

4. The same goes for the R12 Premiums you’ll have on the radar. Personally, I like the R12 Premium class much more than the R11 bunch, so I’ll probably look to bring in two guns here. This means I’ll probably have to pull a DDU after R11 and then use the extra cash to bite on a DUU after R12. Again, I’ll be minimising donuts while improving my team in the long run.

5. Identify at least two trade-out targets from each of the R12 and R13 bye rounds. This will ensure that the trades you effect using the concept in Points 3 & 4 are primarily upgrades and downgrades, and not sideways trades. That is the major reason that I’ll be keeping Horsley and Morris until after R12, and similarly with Magner and Spurr for post-R11.

The Horse - Future trade-bait

It’s important to remember that these points all support a trade-saving, improvement strategy. If you’re going for a sideways trading scheme or a sacrificial round approach then these points will be less helpful to you.

It’s also important to remind yourself that no amount of planning will make things perfect, and there will always be things that don’t go according to plan. Injuries, dropped rookies, form fluctuations…. all these things will affect your options and mentality along the way. So give yourself a rough plan, deduce which structural deficits you need to correct ahead of time and get ready to roll with the punches when they inevitably start rolling in.

  • Tbetta’s Musings

Given the late Monday Night game, it was impossible to make a call for Tbetta’s Tweets. So for one round only, you get to hear about my thoughts on a few key issues assaulting us this week. I’m even going to make up imaginary quotes… Lucky you.

“I just traded in Christensen, and now he’s gone and done his calf or something. Do I trade him out or what? Help!”

I’m glad you asked. I haven’t seen any solid figure regarding how long Bundy might miss, but when quizzed on Twitter whether he’d play on Friday, he replied with “hard to say mate. Just got to wait and see”. It’s another of those Ablett-type scenarios where you hold if it’s only a week or two, but consider a trade if it’s any longer. Given that he implied he’s still a chance for Friday, I think holding is the way to go. Especially if you have the likes of Devon Smith or Treloar sitting there as your 8th forward, in the light of their solid recent form.

“I hate the Rucks this year! I’ve got Hamish McIntosh as the premium in my 1-3 ruck structure, and Giles is my only Rookie playing! If he misses a week, what do I do?”

I have a feeling this dilemma will be haunting many coaches this week, especially those who flicked him in for one (or more) of Sandi-Mumford-McEvoy-Leuenberger since the year began. It all depends on whether you believe he’ll only be out for just the one match, as the club predicts. If it is just the one, you have to hold. Preventing one donut is not worth a whole trade, especially as we’ll be copping our fair share over the MBRs. If you think it will end up being 2 or 3 though… You may have to pull the trigger. But not on H-Mac – on Stephenson or Redden. Keep an eye on someone like Jenkins, who could save you a few donuts if they keep their spot, then relocate to your third ruck slot when H-Mac is fit again.

“I have both Magner and Shiel, and I need to upgrade one to get to a Premium. They’re almost the exact same price ($280K) – so who do I give the flick?”

Another excellent question… It’s Shiel for me. This is purely due to the bye situation. Shiel is one of many R11 rookies on our books at the moment, making Magner invaluable as one of the few R12/R13 Cash Cows. As I mentioned in an earlier section, we need as many R12/R13 rookies as possible to successfully pull off donut-preventing upgrades during the MBRs.

Without considering the byes, I probably still lean towards trading out Shiel. Their scoring potential is relatively identical, but we know that GWS will continue to rotate their rookies, meaning Shiel will be in the firing line over the next few weeks. Magner is actually one of Melbourne’s best players at the moment, so you can’t afford to have him off the park.

  • Round 8

What new challenges will Round 8 throw at us? I don’t know, but I can’t wait to find out. Look out for your Bulldogs, Swans and Lions players to boost their averages against the competition minnows, while who knows what will come out of the Cats vs Pies clash? Will it be another high-scoring DT affair by both sides, and it has been with the Pies all season? Or will it be a hard-fought slog, restricting the fantasy scoring of all those involved, like the first half of the Saints-Blues match this weekend? It’s hard to know, but with Pendles, Swan and Selwood all legitimate Captain options, you’d want to get it right.

Well, that’s about it from me on this Tuesday morning. Let’s finish with the Family-Friendly Meme of the Week – God I love Maric.

 

 

Tweet me: @Tbetta9

171 Comments

  • Christensen out for at 1 week according to Geelong twitter.

    http://twitter.com/#!/catsinsider

  • Last week: Ellis -> Heppell, Goodes -> Horsley

    This week: Shiel -> Beams, HMac -> Ryder

    First and hopefully only ruck trade for the year.
    Have the trio of Giles, Ryder and Hale to cover the MBR’s.

  • Anyone else take notice of Dids return? Good game against Geelong on Friday could mean a cheap forward option.

  • Rucks have been a disaster this year started with a 1-3 combo with Mumford, Giles, Big-O, Redden. Traded Mumford to HMAC. Guess i can be thankful i didnt get onboard Sandi aswell.

    Trent West is an average ruckmen, hopefully Big-O will get recalled this week and cover HMAC. What are peoples opinions on this happening?

  • Need opinions. Team currently stands as below broken up into current bye structure and I have $77k in the bank

    Round 11 Round 12 Round 13
    Bugg Clarke Ellis
    Waters Shaw Goddard
    Hargrave Smedts Deledio

    Boyd Selwood Horsely
    Rockliff Pendlebury
    Coniglio Magner
    Shiel

    Giles Ryder Redden
    Longer

    A.Kennedy Beams Hall
    Treloar Johnson Martin
    Dangerfield Franklin
    Milera

    a) Ellis-> Wilkes, Milera -> Zaharakis and leaves me with 10k
    b) Ellis-> Wilkes, Shiel -> Zaharakis with Treloar or someone moved to the mids and leave me with 50k
    c) Ellis-> Wilkes, Shiel -> Dal Santo and leave me with 60k
    d) Ellis-> Wilkes, Coniglio -> Mitchell and leaves me broke
    e) Ellis out only for now
    f) Other

    I’m leaning towards A myself. I say Wilkes only because Delaney or Spur will leave me with 4 out during their byes weeks

  • Is Goddard now ripe for the taking or 1 more week? Be 96 but plays west coast over in wa.

    • Eagles will be fired up this week, should have two or three big ins too, you could probably hold a week on him, but it depends who you are bringing him in for? for the sake of 10k MAX, you might be better off with his points. If it’s Bugg that you’re upgrading, he might just score 80+ vs Brisbane.

      • Yeah it would be Bugg, and the fact he plays bris means i will likely keep this week.

  • Considering the fact that i’m focused on league wins this year and won’t be trading during the bye rounds, I’m tempted to just keep Ellis and Morris, they will play most games this year, my gut feeling is Spurr will play fuck all, might have to look into it a bit more because I don’t know much about him despite living in Perth!

    Keeping these two will mean upgrading Bugg to Birchall/Suckling despite the fact he is a better scorer than Ellis/Morris at the moment.

  • Ellis gets a stay of execution as he has good JS and will not lose money long term. His cover in the MBR’s is valuable and would rather get a bit more growth out of Kennedy then axe him.

    • He’s been vested twice in 2 games which is a huge worry (red then green vest). If he can stay away from the vest for 3 games he’ll start rising in cash but I’m not too confident.

  • is there anyone that is considering clarke and hargrave as potential keepers??

    • Unless he starts majorly spudding up, Hargrave will be a definite keeper for me as any back men scoring 90s and 100s consistently is a keeper. Rd 11 premium defender is also a bonus.

      Marty Clarke is also very close to being a keeper. As long as he doesn’t tag like in the Anzac day clash, he’s been consistent 75-90.

    • Hargrave was always a keeper and Clarke always had potential to be, i’m not trading them. I feel Clarke will only get better as the Pies get better. Don’t forget he’s been working his way back also – very happy with his numbers if that’s the case.

  • Great read as usual.

    I’ve made two trades this week;
    Bugg -> Wilkes
    Shiel -> Stanton

    Bugg has a large BE and with his up and down scoring I’m not willing to risk it, Wilkes seemed like a decent replacement given I need more Rnd 13 bye defenders.

    Shiel had the highest Rnd 11 BE in Midfield, and if Stanton rises in price even $10,000 more than Shiel I will no longer be able to get him, so had to be this week. Needed another Rnd 12 midfielder, and his next three weeks could be utter overkill (Rich, GWS, Melb).

    What are others’ thoughts on these trades.

    • jesus, essendon have a very nice little run don’t they, jobe and stanton could be gold.

      although this week stanton probably gets the jackson tag, wouldn’t think much of it normally but jackson has been goin pretty well in that role this year

  • Not sold on Spurr, might have to keep hold of Ellis anyway. I have a 3-3-3 bye structure already in place for the defence.

    • +1

      will hold onto Ellis

      I will take 9 = 0’s over the bye rounds
      and make 6 trades over the bye rounds

      to defeat the spartans

      for Caesar!!!!

      • As someone who is meant to be studying for an Ancient History exam I am appalled by your lack of knowledge of Ancient History.

        • This guy!!!!

          its a running joke Huu Haaaa

          The best Roman army (Caesar’s?) would probably have been better than the best Spartan army (Agesilaos’?) – due more to technology and tactics than morale and discipline. Also let’s remember half or more of many Spartan armies were made up of allies who were typically average (excepting Tegea).

          I can go on all day

          I love the name of honor, more than I fear death.
          Caesar

  • maric-mullet is GOLD hahaha

  • kennedy out!! who for? devon smith?

    and whats the go with adcock?

  • RE MBR strategy

    Would it be against the spirit of the game to negotiate an ‘arrangement’ with a MBR-opponent? (Probably yes…?)

    I haven’t fully thought this through, but assume you are playing a guy in r11. You notice he’s coming up against some tough competition in r12 and/or 13. It might be opportunistic for you both to arrange not to trade certain players in r.11. E.g. I won’t trade Boyd, Selwood and Ward if you don’t trade Rockliff, Swallow and Thompson. Could save valuable trade. I have no idea how this would work… but I’m sure there’s a way.

    This probably would only work if you were only interested in league results… and you trust the guy/girl.

    Any thoughts?

    • This is akin to having two teams in one league, and getting one to throw a game against the other to get them both into the eight.

      It is utterly morally reprehensible.

      I did it last year ;)

  • My team in 2 weeks – all upgrades complete, 10 trades left.

    BACK: Deledio, Scotland, Goddard, Waters, Broughton, Hargrave, Morris (Ellis, Spurr)

    MID: Stanton, Ablett, Pendelbury, Murphy, Mitchell, Horsely (J-Mac, T. Adams)

    RUC: Maric, Giles (Big O, Redden)

    FWD: Beams, Robinson, Chappy, Franklin, Danger, Martin, Christensen (Smedts, Hall)

    Would love any feedback guys! Backing in the Horse at M6 to average around 90-100, then say hello to Swanny for finals. Only other query is Morris at D7, Im backing him because a) Lack of downgrade targets down back, B) Should play every game this year, C) Got a source from tigerland that says Hardwick wants to groom him into a hard-nut tagger, feels his attack on the ball/man is too valuable to be wasted at back pocket = midfield time. Saw signs of this last 2 weeks, could average 75 – my question is do you think a 75 ave is acceptable for a M7? Should i be looking for an upgrade here, even with the trade situation as it is?

    • Finals? With 10 trades left?
      You’re obviously counting on the Big O & Redden playing, otherwise there’s a couple of donuts heading your way during MBR’s…
      …same goes for Hall… and Ellis…
      and Giles will be rested, sometime… then there’s injuries. 10 trades?

      Your team looks good tho

      • Thats 10 trades after team is complete – have 6-8 come finals I’m happy. MBRs isnt an issue as I’m not copping more than 1-2 donuts in any of the weeks. Having more than 8 trades left come finals is pointless since thats all you can use in 4 weeks so i dont see your point Savebeer.

    • You’re a premo short on every line… other than that, you’re looking fine (Like the rhyme? I do it all the time…)

  • Great Article! Lake or Duffield or someone else within similar price?!

  • hey guys, wondering if any of you have the link to the website that tells you what bye rounds your players are in (like on your actual dt) i know an article was posted on dttalk a while back about it

  • ellis out for

    Spurr or Smedts

    any advice

  • I’m thinking if you need cash, Saad might be a better option than Spurr.

    He looked really good last night and most people have a spud on the bench up front (Hall/Kennedy).

  • Was wondering what most people are doing with the ruck combo of Cox Giles Reddden Stephenson? Cox and Giles have R11 Byes and Redden and Stephenson not looking like getting a game. Are we prepared to cop 2 ruck donuts?

    • I’m going to be monitoring 211’s health over the next few weeks and might upgrade Giles to him. If not, I’m happy to cop the nuts.

    • yeah I’m trying to decide if I upgrade redden or Steph. Don’t think it’s worh it though as you will still get a donut and essentialy you’ll need to trade again so there’s no wasted cash on the pine. Might just cop two donuts in R11 and cruise on for the rest of the season on. Cox and Giles. Would like to see an Idea to the contrary though!

  • One of the best articles I have read this season TBetta (and boy there has been many!!!)

    I know I wouldn’t want to mess with a giant Mullet whose name was Ivan either. The last giant named Ivan I know of, killed Apollo Creed! Enough said…

    • There was also an Ivan who knocked off a few tourists in the outback…looked a lot like John Jarrett…i’d probably still rather cross that one in a dark alley haha.

  • Thoughts on putting Zaharakis into fwd line….

  • Rockliff stiff on not making the breakers.

  • All the hype seems to be over Spurr instead of fellow 2nd game DEF rookies: J. Brennan or C.Delaney. Is it because of JS?? or not promising enough rooks?? They looked alright on the weekend with both playing solid games.

    • Don’t go Brennan.
      As soon as Schoey comes back, Brennan is gone.
      Brennan is a good tough player, proven that in the WAFL;
      But he’s not good enough to stay in the team, and he’s not a ball carrier – more a tagging negating defender.

  • i brought delaney in for ellis this morning.

  • Team name: Azzas Tigers, CASH LEFT$$: 240, 500
    DEF: deledio, goddard. broughton, waters, malceski, bugg, morris (ellis, smedts)

    MID: stanton, thompson, mitchell, ablett, shiel, horsley (smith, gibson)

    RUCK: sandilands, giles (redden, big o)

    FWD: Sidebottom, franklin, martin, roughhead, okeefe, porplyzia, kennedy (cameron, couch)

    option 1: ellis to spurr – shiel to swan
    OR
    option 2: ellis to any defender

    THOUGHTS?????

  • I have alot of Rd 11 and Rd 13 players (11 &10) after looking at my opposition for Rd 11 they are both fairly weak and have alot of Rd 11 players also. I was considering chancing my luck for Rd 11 and perhaps even trading in Rd 11 players with my upgrades. I would hope to win Rd 12 and Rd 13. Does this make sense?

  • After wasting too many trades already and looking at the current make up of my opponents during the bye rounds, I have concluded that I will be conceding round 11 (will have around 6 donuts) however will use 2-3 trades so that I will have zero donuts in rounds 12 & 13 and my side will be strengthened during that time as well.

  • Ellis and Guthrie to broughton and spurr good trades? I never had broughton and he looks tasty at that price for what we all know he can do

  • Hey guys since none of you are my opponents, let me give you a little trick for the days leading up to your head to head matches.

    Sub off some of your premiums to lower your projected total, so that hopefully your opponent doesn’t bring in a gun cos he thinks you’re a spud :)

    Worked last week for me! Just whatever you do – do not forget to sub the premos back on!

    • That’s where the Footynerd Bookmarklet comes in handy.
      It gives you your opponents projection based on the best 22.

      I have a look at their players, do a quick matchup with the unique players & work out, that I have very little chance of winning! :p

  • I started the season with Pavlich instead of Fyfe thinking that Fyfe might blow out his shoulder. Although I felt semi vindicated for my selection at the time Fyfes shoulder gave way, Pavlichs scores were awful and his price was falling fast – so I traded him out.

    Is he a genuine bargain to bring in as a 6th forward who will average around the 100’s or is he just going through a purple patch?

    • The PAV is a great player – but he’s slowing down.
      He’s played a lot of games!
      No player can keep that workrate up for that long – shit, Crybaby Nick R. has slowed down already and he’s not as seasoned as the pav.

  • So I’m thinking of doing a double trade;
    Downgrading one rook for another, and then upgrading Kennedy to a uber F/M – like Beams.

    But I’m wondering what his scoring is gonna be like with Didak back in the team?
    Is it a risk, or should I wait until we see what happens after the Geelong game to see where it’s at?

    • I’ve pretty much just done the same thing. Traded out Ellis for Spurr as everyone seems to have than got rid of Shiel to bring in Beams which than gives me my DPP. Personally can’t give you answer on the whole Didak thing though sorry:) Shouldn’t make too much differnece though I would think?

  • As RidleyU says great article Tbetta. Thanks for your input every week.

  • Nice article Tbetta

    Looking at a midfield upgrade this week or next week and need someones opinion

    currently have:
    rd 11
    boyd, greene, shiel, McDonald

    rd 12
    pendlebury, magner

    rd 13
    Ablett, Horlsey

    I need to get rid of a few rd 11 players so i was thinking trading shiel which would give me $480,000 to spend. (also using a downgrade of ellis to a forward (using smedts DPP))

    Currently i am thinking of getting Sam Mitchell or waiting till next week and hopefully i can get Marc Murphy.

    What do you think, or can you see a better option for me
    Cheers in advance

  • Enjoyed the article; have gone Ellis – Spur, but not sure which ruck to pick out of Cox & Sandi?
    Sick of getting a donut for Mumford! Other 3 rucks are Giles, Redden & Stephenson…

  • tbetta, mate, love your articles but telling GWS selectors to ‘eat a dick’ on twitter, really? You should know what their rotation policy is like by now. When you look at the number of games played by Shiel, Smith and Bugg it’s as obvious as T. Cloke chasing a $ rather than a footy they’ll be rested.