Punching Above: Round 6

Which players are playing better than their average?

Who are those that are outperforming their price?

Who is punching above their weight?

It is that time of the week again, when we look at the past weeks performance and discussed who smashed it? Who went berko? Who clearly punched above their weight?

A week that delivered some monster scores

  • Stants 193
  • Stevie J 163
  • Griffen 149
  • Beams 137
  • Heppell 137
  • Jetta 133

In total 64 players topped the ton this week… this is equal to round 2 and up on the weekly average of 55.

The Hampson

So… to the Hampson… we saw last week’s dual winners Craig Bird and Brad Ebert come back to earth, with Ebert still posting a nice 94. Bird a disappointing 63.

The Hampson for this week goes to a player selected in only 8.3% of teams…and to be honest fairly dubious Job security, but ran amok against the GWS kids. Punching at +24… Priced at 48 and averaging 72…

The Hampson goes to Paul Bower

Congrats son… go and get yourself another Tatt… seems to work for Swanny!

Honourable mentions to: Ricky Dyson +22 Lewis Jetta +21 Brent Stanton +18

The Kallis

Now on to the Kallis…The player that punched highest above their average for the round….no surprises to anyone…winner Brent Stanton + 78

Seriously…He must have some really ordinary BO or prone to hoofing down an egg and baked bean vindaloo the night before the match…nobody wants to go near him. Congrats Stants…let’s see you back it up against the Weagles!

Honourable mentions to: Lewis Jetta +73 Stevie J +73 and Bower +68

 

Given that we are starting to or already completing upgrades, I thought that this week I would look at 2 players that were highlighted on the twitter sphere that are currently Punching Above, and see if we can determine if they are the real deal.

Dyson Heppell $438K Ave 96.7

Despite the stupid hair…this boy can play, we all know that. Not sure how many of us thought that he would be able to back up his stellar debut year, but he is and doing it very well.

He is just starting to hit his straps and has put back to back Tons together. Coming into round 7, he has a BE of 37, and a projected 3 round average of 107. Only currently owned by 12.7% of coaches, I truly believe that this number will very soon go up with premium round 12 Bye defenders very hard to find. The bombers have a nice run up to the Bye with games against West Coast, Richmond, GWS, Melbourne and Sydney. With the bombers have 7 games remaining at Etihad where Dyson averages (99.7) and 5 games at the G (Ave: 104). His games this year have read 75, 87, 73, 97, 111, and 137.

Comparing his stats with last year…Not a huge amount of difference but the one thing that does stand out is that he is kicking the ball more…a good sign.

 

2012

2011

Diff

Disposals

23

21

2

Marks

7

6

1

Tackles

3

3

0

Kick %

59%

53%

6%

Verdict: Get on Board…Dyson is the real deal… he has a round 12 Bye…If you can’t get him before hand, jump on after his Bye. He will be a welcome addition to “The Rainmen” this week #thisdysondoesntsuck

Scott Selwood $490k Ave: 114.7

I didn’t think that I would be writing about this Selwood, but his numbers are too good to ignore and I am starting to really consider him. If you started off the year with him in your team…Hats off, I don’t think that many would have. He is currently owned by 6.1% of coaches and his numbers for this year are Super Premo (98, 131, 150, 82, 102, and 125) Yes I am aware they have played some easy opposition and the proof will be in playing against top 4 sides, but he may just be the real deal. Given that Kerr and Priddis seem to still get the majority of attention from the opposition, Scooter has been running free. Coming in to round 7, he has a BE of 92 and a projected 3 round average of 119! Games coming up against Essendon, St Kilda, Fremantle and Brisbane look pretty juicy.

To all the punters that say… oh he is just a tagger…well his numbers have dramatically changed from last year…

 

2012

2011

Diff

Disposals

29

18

11

Marks

6

3

3

Tackles

5

8

-3

Kick %

46%

47%

-1%

He is getting a lot more of the pill and becoming a user, rather than a negater. In the games last year when scooter scored over 100 he was heavily reliant on tackles, with over 10 tackles each game that he scored over 100. Not this year.

Verdict: I will look at him post his round 11 bye (Has some stiff competition sharing the Bye, Rocky, Thommo, Boyd) I think he is certainly a contender to be top 10 mid by year end but let’s see what he throws up over the next 4 weeks. #betterthantroyandadam

So there is The Punching for another week, Bower and Stants the recipients of the gong! I will continue to focus on players that you flick through to me on twitter and the most relevant will be analysed. If you aren’t on Twitter already, get on board and follow the DTTalk crew.

Cheers Rainman

TWITTER: @RainmanDT

117 Comments

  • Great stuff Rainman

    • Hey
      what do you think about porplyzia is he a keeper?
      Or should I just off load him for Stevie j

      • hes my 7th fwd at present… all things going to plan he will be great as a 8th fwd to have as a decent scoring emergency.

        emergency players seem important this year more so with so many late withdrawrals and restings.

        any one agree?

        • totally agree. he’s my F7 and will become F8. will be keeping ellis as well even though he’s pretty much fattened cause a) who the hell is there to downgrade him to?? and b) who else can I keep on the bench for byes/injuries that will play most games

      • I don’t have Porps, but have Callinan and would probably treat them the same as f7/f8 depending on your other rnd11 fwds (hens teeth) for byes.

  • Happy to say I have had Scooter putting around my midfield since round 1. :)

    Heppell will be a welcome addition after the cows get fat.

  • great article rainman! love ya work, can ya help me on this one…..

    I’ve got a real problem to solve in my defence. I currently have lake, waters, hargrave and bugg which I thought one of them could be traded out, but they all seem like becoming keepers so I don’t know what to do with them!! Obviously I need to get rid of one so who do I get rid of?

    • Bugg to inconsistent 90 one week and 60 the next

      • Can you hang on a week or two for bugg to finish fattening up????

        • yeah, I’m just pre planning for which one I should get rid of.

    • Bugg would have to be the first to go given Sheedy’s rotations, won’t be too long before the Bugg has a spell.
      The other 3 probs a tough call, however if waters keeps getting the umpires eye in a bad way, he could be forced a holiday, so maybe that Decision might be made for you.

      Hold a few weeks if you can to monitor..

    • Im waiting a couple of weeks and then turning Bugg into Heppell.

  • Had Heppell since round 1… now I guess i’ll have to endure his unavoidable low score this round as he adjusts to the weight of everyone jumping on him… The kid is definitely a gun though!

  • I’ve just been deleting (and banning) annoying ‘first’ posters. Getting over it – don’t want to have to scroll down 10 comments for those who do it and then the idiots that feel the need to reply.

    • That a boy warnie. Only makes it worse when people comment about it after aswell

    • Well done Warnie, it was only a matter of time

    • just ban the people who say first

    • Thanks Warnie, great job!

    • Great site you guys run Warnie, topics, lack of trolls, good humour, good info, everything just ace. While I’m halfarsedly quoting songs, you give Tassie a good name wohoh wooh ohoh oh oh. Must be tiring frustrating and some days you gotta wonder why. Glad you stick to it and thanks for every bit including this latest idea.

      • and awesome stuff too Rainman, McRath, Aki, RLG, tBetta and all the other authors

  • Good stuff Rainman! Agreed that Heppell is a gun had him since round 1. Stanton also having a stellar year.

  • Thanks Rainman nice article, I have also been a Scooter Selwood man all the way. And have been since day dot. He used to play with one of my sons for Sandhurst in the Bendigo league and it was quite funny because the team wasnt that hot and he would basically contest in the centre, kick it forward, run down and contest the ground ball and basically get a million DT points a week so times havent changed much at all. Because Joel was always a junior star and drafted a few years ahead, Scotty always slipped under the radar but never should have really,

    • Thanks mate,

      I can remember hearing a few years back that “the younger brother will be the best of the lot”. Not saying that is the case, but certainly playing very well at the minute.

      Had to laugh about Scooter kicking it to himself and racking up the points as a junior..funnily enough all of my opponents did the same to me!

      • And from my own experience I`m hearin ya Rainman…….

      • Should play supers – no one has the energy to chase their own ball so it sort of just sits there for a while until we get around to it. Think I have only ever seen a ball sit stationary in play once in my life before I started, now I see it weekly.

  • Can you imagine if Scooter can get his tackle rate up like last year when he was tagging, he averaged 8 a game and with 29 disposals this year, Were talking mammoth scores.

    • Add to that his increasing tally of free kicks and he will be smashing it. I have a great name should Freo and the Eagles ever unite under one banner, they will be called the Fremantle Duckers.

    • can you imagine if zac dawson kicked 4 goals next week, got 15 kicks, 20 hanballs, 12 marks, 9 tackles….

      even zac could be a good DT player in “imagine if” land

      • wow, i never thought id say zac dawson, DT and good in the same sentance…

        • Zac Dawson is good when he plays on your number one DT forward. That was the best I could come up with.
          Actually it’s good to see Zac Dawson in your opponent’s list of unique players in your DT match

  • Stellar work Rainman! I am with you totally on Scooter. Has become a GUN. Will be tough trying to pick between him, Boyd and Rocky when round 11 is over for my final mid upgrade.

  • Great article Rainman. Really like these articles.
    Now, quick question, where should I upgrade? Defence only getting 500 points a week. Should I do it in defence or upgrade in the mid? Midfielders = more points. Tough call. Any comments really, highly appreciated! Thanks!

    These are my DEF and MID lines:

    DEF: Deledio, Goddard, Shaw, Birchall, Clarke, Bugg, Ellis, Morris and Paine.
    MID: Swan, Ablett, Boyd, Thompson, Magner, Horsley, Jmac and Shiel.

    Thanks again!

    Nooie :)

    • OK. That was a fail. I already did Coniglio – Horsley and Kennedy – Adams, that freed up $277000. Can afford any midfielder under 500K if I trade Magner or Shiel. Currently looking at Sammy Mitchell.

      Thanks again :)

      • Don’t disregard Watson… He is having a cracking year and I like their draw!

        • Thanks Rainman and Leo so back to mine, you reckon midfield is the best idea over defence??? Thanks!!

    • my team looks simillar to yours.
      i’m thinking of bringing in heppell this week for ellis.
      it will give me a donut in round 12. (but my understanding is we will all cop at least two anyway)
      I have Shaw and Broughton already.

      My thought pattern is if i keep Ellis till after the bye i get 6 x 50= 300
      If i go up to Heppel i will get 5 x 90 (ave) = 450 plus a donut.

      • Ellis is rd 13 bye so could become Heppell then. Not sure if this is obvious, I’m prone to saying obvious things. For mine I am hanging on to all my trades and clinging to the fringe of the top 1k. Lucky week last week thanks to some good GWS scores but every week I look worse. I’d say hold but I always say that

      • This is my thinking exactly. By being aggressive in trading in Premo’s before the bye, you will get more points even taking into account the donuts.

        I have had LTI’s to Goodes, Fyfe and Gray to deal with but other than that it is smooth sailing. Have a large kitty ready for next round so that I can start getting my midfield in order.

  • My forward line is turning into absolute shambles, have already had to make fix it trades for:
    Robbie Gray
    Davis Hale
    Nat Fyfe and
    Adam Goodes
    Thats 4 trades already just for my forward line! Such a bad year of injuries, anyone who has made less than 3 fix it trades is either a genius or has more ass than class.

    • Only made the 1 fix-it trade with Fyfe, avoided all the ruck drama by starting with Cox. That said, it’s not like I’m anywhere near the top scorers thanks to donuts in the last couple of rounds.

  • ha, greg broughton fighting charge which if unsuccesful could miss this week.

    • pritty funny considering afl players have been playing like that for 110 years.
      (sorry i still have Broughts.)

  • Nice one Rainman.

    I think you should leave Dyson’s hair alone though. Dale Thomas has similar hair last year and he has cut it – look at his performance now!

  • Anyone interested in joining supercoach? I know its late, but what the hell!

    League code: 981282

    Hope to see some new faces.

    Cheers

  • Hey guys,

    Sorry about the shortness of the article this week, I had planned to look at a player across each line and was going to look at Ivan Maric and Paddy Dangerfield…I still may do that next week.

    Really love getting down and dirty with the numbers and like doing this type of analysis, but wanted to be guided by you on who you want to see analysed. I can continue going with who I think are relevant (and selfishly for my team) but also keen to run the numbers on other players of interest.

    Just hit me up on twitter (and seriously if you are not on twitter yet, get on)
    Cheers

    • Don’t think it has to be too long and complicated – concise, easy to read and entertaining is all you need.

    • Twitter is so lame!

  • heppell v guerra
    Heppell looks good with avg of 96 prised at $438,400 and has a BE of 42
    Guerra looking to take over birchall’s position avg 90 at $409,700 BE 59

    thinking of going heppell cuz already have suckling

    • Think of going Heppell cause he his a heaps better option!!!

    • Heppell buddy. Guerra won’t take over Birchalls role. Birch just coped another knock on Friday night. He still will be the link man. Not to say that Guerra won’t get heaps of the pill, but Heppell for me. Especially with a round 12 Bye.

  • Is Hargrave not more than +24? Averaging 89 priced at ~235k

  • traded in carazo and first week in my team he is out for 8 weeks then i traded in goodes and first week he is out for 6 weeks. its the curse of the”sunday clutch” who will i claim next

    • Just make sure you let us know who you are planning on bringing in please!

    • I brought in Goddard and said bye to Danger as part of a double trade (he was doing an 80 avg and Goddard was a 105 avg). That week Goddard gave me 58 x 2 as captain, and Danger gave others 140.

      Own fault I guess :\

      Bringing in Heppell this week to sure up defence and reduce the number of Rd13 players in there.

      • a sideways trade for no apparent reason this early in the year? You’ve got a lot to learn sunshine.

    • Dangerfield please :)

  • If someone can help us here, I have GOODES and I am tossing up of either bringing in Taylor ADAMS and then next week PAVLICH. I just don’t know how much PAV will go up next week and same with ADAMS. Money wise just not sure which way I will be better off, any help much appreciated.

    • will pav be top 10 forward this year.
      i dont think so.

      • Im not a Freo supporter, but his too good of a player not to be. Has been in top 10 for a number of years and I think will again this year.

    • Taylor Adams looks great, don’t get me wrong. But his job security (same as all GWS players) is not assured. He will be rotated in and out. And if his form drops a little more than others, it’ll be out more than in.

      • Point taken, just think if he plays this weekend against Suns might go well and should jump up in price next week. I just don’t know how to estimate approx price rise.

        • If he hits 81 this week he’ll rise $65K.

          • Cheers mate, just for my info, how did you come to that figure?. Im just new at this.

        • If you have the assistant coach it has the Break Evens and projected price rises. This will help you decide what order to trade in players.
          Adams is about to have his biggest rise so if you are bringing him in this is the week to do it.
          Just on Pav. Generally speaking it is better to have forwards who spend time in the middle racking up points. Eg Sidebottom, Robbo, Beams, Dangerfield. These types would be a better choice.
          Good Luck!

          • Cheers Kev,

            I will get PAV next week, just thinking of getting ADAMS this week hoping he get a few more games and goes up in price and then get rid of him for gun fwd.

    • I have had pav from day 1 this year and after a very slow 1st 4 rounds, he’s finally hitting form now. He’s dropped about 61k in price from round 1! However his BE is only 50 this week so expect his current price of 404k to shoot up to about 420ish next week. hope that helps :)

  • Better than Troy, Adam & Joel. Watch the little man fly. Brownlow medal 2013/2014?

  • Hello Horsley And T.Adams next week hello who ever i want mwahahah

  • seriously fremantle? why risk it for the sakes of dt atleast!

  • Great article as always!

    With regard to punching above their average, Beams has 3 rd avg 114
    but avg against Lions only 66… Would that have been affected by injury in recent clashes or heavy tagging?

    • Could even be The Gabba! avg 38 at that ground… what happened there?

    • He scored 107 against them last year in the only time he played them. 31 in 2010 and a 80 and 41 in 2009. So four game average loooks bad, but last years score would be mOre indicative of what he should score…..I hope so anyway ;)

  • Is Broughts suspended? hope not that would force me to put in ellis on field.

  • Who are people using as a straight swap for the injured Goodes? My apologies if this has been mentioned in another forum.

    I’m tossing up between Mitch Robinson, Stevie J and Sidebottom.

    I’m leaning towards Stevie J – as his price has bottomed out (for now anyway) and Mitch and Sidebottom are perhaps priced a little high. But the main concern I have with Stevie J is his inconsistency and Geelong’s ongoing ‘general soreness’ epidemic.

    If you are interested in my fwd line I currently have; Goodes, Beams, Chapman, Franklin, Dangerfield, Martin, Porplyzia, Kennedy & Treloar.

    Thoughts appreciated. Cheers

    • I’d go Robbo… in good form and looks like would fit your bye structure better than another rd12

      • Thanks mate.

        But about the bye structure – not really better/worse to trade either of them, as aside from Goodes (who I am trading out), I only have 2 round 12 bye players (Chapman, Beams) and 2 round 13 bye players (Martin, Franklin). Rest are all round 11 byes. So byes aren’t an issue with trading Robbo, Sidebottom or Stevie J in.

        • Yeah, you’re right. Forgot Goodes wont be in your line-up! So any you mentioned will work well…
          I’d still opt for Robbo or Sidey… youve prob got another week to check out StevieJ’s consistency

      • Agreed with Robbo here. Would suit your bye structure.

  • Ellis to Hargrave or Lake??

    or

    Bugg to Heppell??

    Tits Out!!
    @TitsPlace #TitsCrew

  • Broughts got off.

  • Broughton got off!

  • Hey trading mcevoy. And I’ve gone the 1 3 structure. I’m not sure who to bring in was thinking hmac or cox or big sauce is also an optio. What are your thoughts

    • I went mummy -> McIntosh worked out for me fine

      • still in shock and awe that so few people didn’t start with hmac from day 1. Was one of the most simple choices I had to make in choosing my team. You couldn’t lose on him at his starting price and now everyones forking out an extra 130k to get him in. lmfao

  • Great work again Rainman!! Im bringing in Heppell in a couple of weeks after Bugg fattens up! Got my eye on StevieJ, Beams and Chappy for second last spot in the Dawks. Last spot will be left for Robbo after his bye.

  • Great articles as always Rainman! (no it’s not copy and pasted!!!)
    Both worthy winners!

    Now, as you can tell, I don’t have any mid uber premos with rnd 11 bye.
    Plan to upgrade during byes, and Scooter will be a welcome edition to my team!
    And hard to resist Boyd’s run home after his bye & Thommo’s run home as well……hmmm???

    Check this out, (you probably already know this you STATS Guru, lol,) re Boyd-

    Rnd 12 vs Port (ES)
    Rnd 13 vs BL (ES)
    Rnd 14 vs ESS (ES) <<<too many E's & S's
    Rnd 15 vs FRE (PS) *Pattersons*
    Rnd 16 vs HAW (ES)
    Rnd 17 vs CAR (ES)
    Rnd 18 vs STK (ES)
    Rnd 19 vs KAN (ES)

    A great deal to like there!

    N.b Great win again, and Great trades- shame you did them the week you played me!!! :-) :-) :-)

    • Thanks Eeep…haha, will take any win I can at the moment. I like the draw of all three of them (hmmmmm…perhaps an article in the making)

      Boyd should be phenomenal towards the end…as you have highlighted, he loves Etihad… Just for giggles, below is his average (based on last 4) against the highlited opposition.

      115
      114
      98
      130
      126
      118
      115
      109

  • Great article as always Rainman!
    it is worth getting zaha in now at his cheap price?? or should I wait until i have more $$$ and get a super premo eg. beams, chappy, stevie J???

  • Thanks again for your insights. Rainman, I have only seen this considered trade referred to once. I was lucky and picked Cox and MacIntosh with Giles and Redden on the bench.
    Looking to Magner/Horsley and Kennedy/Roughead this week. Next week Giles to any 98k R/F. Give me 200K and more plus the security of an R/F link. Seems beaut. am I missing something?

  • Awesome article Rainman!

    Warnie, think one of your Supercoach articles has slipped through to the DT Assistant coach! Got excited at the prospect of a new article haha!

  • Thinking of Magner —-> Hornsley & then Golby —-> Heppell

    Good trades? Thoughts?

    • i am probably going to do exactly the same thing.

      With broughton and clarke, it gives me 3 rd12 defs, but i can upgrade clarke if he turns out not to be a keeper. If he does, i’ll get one of my two compulsory donuts in the defs in rd12.

      Slightly worried that docherty will debut and golby’s role will get more dt friendly. But i think i’m gonna thank him for the 100 and a little cash and get back on the heppell train after upgrading him to hodge last year.

  • Hi All – Magner or McCarthy out for the HOrse?? Cheers

  • rainman and co. thanks for the great article. I dunno how the f*#k you guys find time to write all this stuff, but on behalf of everyone who relies on it to help them not be shite – THANKS.

    Question for everyone – is Sam Darley ever going to get a run at GWS? Have I missed something crucial that is keeping him out of the side or is he just not good to go yet?

  • G’day,
    Is it just me or can others see that 2 ruckman might be called up for duty “conscripted” to General Sorenesses army, & yes he has a lisp.
    i,s. H,Mac & p”Giles”???

  • p,s. Giz started a super league game code 981282
    I think she is sick of predicting all the players that will get hurt.
    ~ : ) >