Tbetta’s Bullets: Round 5

  • Carnage Part III

It’s now at the stage where we have to consider whether we’re just going through a ridiculous period of fantasy footy carnage, or whether this is just the new Dream Team landscape. There seems to be more injuries to popular players, more late withdrawals than ever before and premium scorers rested and subbed with worrying frequency. This week we had Hargrave, Birchall, Chad Cornes and Porps all withdraw from the respective squads at the last minute, adding to our already thin-stretched forward and back lines. Add this to the recent absence of premiums like Ablett, Shaw, Mumford and Sandilands, and bench cover such as Clay Smith, Aaron Hall and Adam Kennedy, and you could have staring down the barrel of a donut or two.

This week was a bit two-paced. You either had Swan’s 171 looped as captain, or you didn’t. In which case, you probably had Boyd (115) or one of the many underperforming premiums such as Mitchell (63), Selwood (69) or Goddard (58). Which basically means that you earned Swan’s 342, or you earned the 230 (or less) from your next best option – putting you over 100 points behind those with the fantasy pig. Needless to say, getting to 2000 this week was a great effort without Swan in your line-up.

  • Consistently Consistent

If there’s one thing that I value in DT, it’s consistency. It’s one of my highest priorities when selecting my premiums every year. I know what people say – consistency doesn’t matter if you’re going for the car, it’s all about overall points. And to a point I agree… Ignoring the obvious exceptions to that theory (like your Captain earning double, if you don’t set the same Captain every week of the year). But there is another thing that I value up right there with total DT points – my mental health. I don’t care what anyone says, a 130 and 140 from a Boyd feels a hell of a lot better than a 180 and a 90 from a Stanton.

If you’re like me and you fully appreciate the value of a little bit of uniformity, then there’s a fair chance you’ll like the players on this list: (Note: C.R. stands for Consistency Rating, as per the Assistant Coach. The lower it is, the more consistent the player.)

BEAU WATERS – $386,600 – 90 avg – 10.3 C.R.

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Beau has been one of the few highly consistent defenders in a notoriously inconsistent line in 2012. Waters has a season low of 79 (from this weekend’s game) and a season high of 103. The Eagles’ game-style is such that Beau will always be sought out across half back and is a vital cog in their switch of play. His signature intercept marking doesn’t hurt, either. A trade win so far if you got him in for Carrazzo or Shaw.

TENDAI MZUNGU -$432,400 – 98 avg – 7.2 C.R.

It’s a shame that Mzungu isn’t a DPP this year, because he has been dominating. He’d rank as the 4th-highest scoring defender and the 3rd-highest forward. As a midfielder though, he’s almost drifted into obscurity as he’s not an underpriced Break-out candidate or a Super-Premo. He’s scored between 88 and 110 including two tons on the trot, so if you’re looking for a 90+ sure thing and a point of difference in your mids, Mzungu’s your man.

MARC MURPHY – $560,400 – 120.2 avg – 9.5 C.R.

Of the Super-Premium class, Murphy is the premier consistent scorer of the competition. To be averaging 120 with all of your scores between 114 and 139 (and get this – he’s scored 114,115,116 and 117 if you take out that 139 in Round 3!) is a great effort. Even at his lofty price, he’s worth every penny. Your sanity will thank you.

JORDAN LEWIS – $427,300 – 90.6 avg – 5.5 C.R.

Lewis is probably the most consistent player in the competition, all things considered. He’s been quietly getting it done, with all of his 5 scores landing between 86 and 101. If you’re sick of players like Stevie J or Pavlich, Lewis is the guy to revitalise your forward line and your mental status.

  • Makers and Breakers

Round 5 was one of the rare occasions where the loophole rendered itself useful – with the biggest score of the week, thank you! Swan led all comers with 171 in a spiteful return to form; doing all the things we have come to love from over the years: 42 disposals, 6 tackles and a lot of scoreboard pressure with 3 sausage rolls. And the football kind, too.

There’s a new premium ruckman in town, and it’s actually an old one – Hamish McIntosh. Since his 56 points in Round 1, H-Mac has averaged a huge 104.5, the most of any ruckman. With Sandi and Mumford hobbled in recent weeks, I hope you made the most of a bad situation and downgraded to the hugely underpriced big man. 123 points this week was huge in a poor round for the Rucks.

How many Brownlow votes is Josh P. Kennedy on? The former Hawk and current Swan has had a massive start to the season, and it’s translating to DT points as well. Josh is currently the 6th highest averaging DTer this year, up almost 27 points a game from last season. 3 goals and 11 tackles helped him get to 149 points this week, second only to Swanny.

Welcome back, pre-season version of Patty Dangerfield! The popular Crow pumped out his first ton of the season with a big-time 140 in the Showdown. This included career-highs in disposals (39), kicks (28) and marks (8). Hopefully we see more of this kind of Danger, not the easily-tagged version who averaged 81 over the first month of the season.

It’s about time Tomas Bugg got the kudos he deserves in this section. The young Giant has managed three scores in the 90’s this year, including 96 at the weekend. It mattered, too, with late withdrawals to fellow defenders Birchall and Hargrave. He’s now averaging 82 for the season, swelling his price by almost $160k with plenty more to come.

Goddard suffered one of the tightest tags in recent memory, barely nearing the footy thanks to the Demons’ McKenzie. Totalling just the 1 mark goes to show how little he could get his natural game going, given he averages over 7 for the year. 58 is not what we paid for.

I expressed my wariness of Drummond a couple of weeks ago in the Bullets, and this is why. The long-kicking defender was given a job this week, and as a result, only managed the 25 points before being subbed off in the third quarter. He does this every year; tempts us with big scores, before receding back into mediocrity or getting injured yet again.

Joel Selwood might consider himself hard-done by, making the Breakers with 69 points. But he’s here for a couple of reasons; 1. He was a popular Captain option this week, especially for those not happy with the loop and the absence of Ablett, and 2. He’s very lucky not to miss a couple of games courtesy of a sizeable slap to Raines (who wouldn’t want to give him a little bit of a whack, though?), especially as he missed a month of football with a similar off-the-ball incident last year. Naughty Joel.

Nick Malceski was another value defender who put his hand up for selection over the first month of football. In that time, he didn’t score under 80 once, whilst not cracking the ton – that’s consistency. Unfortunately, the Hawks are very difficult to score against, and it’s even more difficult to score when you’re wearing a red vest, so Eski managed just the 32 this week.

With a fair bit of backline and forward line carnage this week, many coaches would have been relying on Smedts’ score to avoid a donut. Getting selected was a great start, being green-vested was a turn for the worse, and earning just the 4 points in a quarter of footy was a frustrating end. May as well have copped the donut.

  • Tbetta’s Tweets

Good question – I think a lot of people are struggling with this one. I think we can now expect Cox to churn out 80’s and 90’s rather than the tons were accustomed to from him. Naitanui is playing a lot more through the middle, isolating Cox up forward. The only way I can see Cox’s scores improving significantly is if NicNat gets injured (touch wood) or is someone like Josh Kennedy does (as it happened on the weekend, when Cox finally started getting involved).

The back-story to this is that if you picked any of the other Premos talked about earlier in the season (Mumford, Leuey or Sandi) you’d be pretty close to enjoying either a few donuts or less trades. At the moment, I’m honestly just glad Cox is still fit and fighting given the hit sustained in the ruck department so far. Keep, and hope.

 

Christensen was in my side all pre-season, mainly due to his great points per minute towards the end of last season. As we know, he came into the season underdone causing many of us to jump ship, but there was full expectation that he would come good later in the season. Well, he has now, after scoring 110 and 101 in some pretty poor DT football from the Cats. He has a BE of 21 heading into Round 6, so if you’re convinced he’s here to stay, jump on now while he’s still sub-$400k.

What the hell happened?! I talked up Geary as a legitimate trade-in option last week then he serves this up? I thought, surely he must have been vested or injured… Nope, he was just assigned the job on the football anti-magnet, Aaron Davey. I don’t think you have much choice other than to hold on to him and hope it was just a one-off.

  • Cashing Cowin’

After I was very vocal last week about not cashing in your Cows too early, it was probably all for nothing, as many of us were forced into trading out a rookie (such as Clay Smith, Dickson or even Kennedy) to a Treloar/McDonald type to avoid a donut.

But now we’re coming into a vital month for cash generation. Knowing when and who to cut is a huge part of the Cash Cow cycle. DT Talk has your back of course, with Aki’s DTSM and Chook’s Rooks specialising in the art of cash and cows respectively. Here’s my 2 cents worth.

Keep On Truckin’

Plenty of our Giants have bucket-loads more cash to appreciate. McDonald and Treloar have only had the one price rise so they’re still good to go (and scoring very well, mind you) while Giles, Shiel, Bugg, Greene, Coniglio and Kennedy are all sporting BE’s below 30. Unless any of these guys take an extended holiday, keep them another week or two. Remember, one big score will cause a sustained price hike while it stays in the three-round rolling average. And vice versa.

Outside of GWS, we still have Aaron Hall (who I believe was rested and taken to Canberra as insurance) and K. Hunt with plenty of room to grow still. Both have negative BE’s. Magner’s 86 on the weekend ensures he heads into Round 6 with a BE of 0, and he’s already up $150k since the start of the season! Clay Smith (0 BE) still has potential as a Cash Cow if he can sneak a game or two, while Tiger twins Ellis and Morris can keep on keeping on with BE’s under 20. Soon, though, you’ll need to cull at least one, so watch them closely over the next few weeks.

Considerin’

Devon Smith is probably the only popular Giant cash cow with a borderline BE of 52. This is because after this week, his 87 from Round 3 will move out of his rolling average, while the vested 39 he earned this week will hang around for a while. My gut feeling is to keep him, as he’ll surely increase well past the $240,400 he’s currently valued at over the course of the season. But if you need a quick cash-grab, Devon is at a high enough price to justify a straight swap with fellow DPP Pfeiffer on the bubble.

Billie Smedts (only up $9,100 for the year) won’t be making you too much cash anytime soon, thanks to his vestage and total of 4 on the weekend. You may decide to cut your losses on him now for someone like the aforementioned Pfeiffer or young Giant Taylor Adams. Chad Wingard ($167,500 with a 39 BE) is another who you might consider culling for someone like Kyal Horsley in the midfield, who scored 101 on debut.

Keepin’?

Last year we had Heppell, Stanley, Mzungu and I. Smith turning into keepers, especially towards the pointy end of the season. Well, we have a few candidates this year as well.

Giant ruckman and mature-ager Jon Giles has been incredible, totalling the 6th most points of all ruckmen this year and boasting the greatest overall price increase at $167k. I think we all planned to upgrade him at some point, but with plenty of gun ruckmen like Sandi, Mumford and Leuey all struggling to keep fit, should we consider keeping him through the MBR’s and beyond? I think we should.

James McDonald is another who is putting his hand up to hang around as your M6, averaging 90.7 over his 3 games so far. Bugg is doing the same thing down back, averaging 81.8 so far this season. Unfortunately, that’s about all we have on offer so far, such is the prevalence of the sub vest with players new to the AFL system.

  • Round 6

All the talk this week will be about who’s playing and who’s not. Will Ablett defy the odds and get up for the Fremantle clash? Will Jelwood someone avoid suspension? (EDIT: He got off!) Will Sandilands man up and line up? Will Adam Kennedy and Aaron Hall return to their respective squads, or were they legitimately dropped? Make no mistake; we’ll have plenty of drama to sort through over the week.

As for this week’s matches, watch out for Carlton to absolutely destroy the Giants DT-wise. Carlton short-kicking style means there will be plenty of +6 combos, and I’m tipping that GWS will tire pretty quickly trying to apply pressure. I’m also scared for St. Kilda, as I can’t see Hawthorn coming out soft after losing two games on the trot.

As always, good luck. To finish, here’s is a simple meme to take your mind of the carnage:

 

Hit me up on Twitter: @tbetta9

221 Comments

  • Byrnes -> Pffeifer
    or
    Byrnes -> Milera

    or if there is any others option plz reply

  • are these good trades??

    d. smith to pfeffier
    and
    coniglio to thompson/watson

  • Great write up mate.

    Good to see Lewis get mentioned. I brought him into my side this week for Kennedy. His consistency is unbelievable across the last 5 years… You know that you will get 90 at worst but can go large as well.

    Question is do you have him and Buddy, I don’t, but can’t see any reason why you couldn’t.

    Just on downgrades.. I tweeted this earlier today. Zorko had 32 disp, 14 tackles, Yeo 35 disp and Docherty 19 for the lions reserves on the weekend… Just need them to get the call up now… Could work nicely coming up to MBR.

    :)

  • My god Dal Santo is tastily cheap

    • And will continue to get so… BE is around 120 I think.

      I’m about to give myself an uppercut for suggesting this, but Higgins is almost tempting at his likely bottom-out price ($300K-ish).

      • I saw that today as well. I couldn’t believe I am actually tempted to get him if he drops to $300,000.

        Wont go there but…. ;-)

    • Had him last year from the start and was an awesome pick but this year not so good:

      1. Getting tagged a lot more!
      2. Has only broken the ton once this year

      However if he does get 100+ this week, he’ll be perfect for next week

      • He’s a gun but actually he let me down in finals last year, I brought him in towards the end and I dont think he broke the ton or at least not a big ton.

        But his price is delicious… as for Higgins, don’t tempt me please, but yes his subs have really made him cheap

  • Who to upgrade after this week? Ellis or Morris??

    Important decision. Thanks :D

    • To be honest I wouldn’t upgrade either (their B/E our less than 20)

      However, if I had to choose one definitely Morris. Ellis is looking much more DT friendly and if he hadn’t been subbed, he was looking at a good score.

  • should i have swan and pendles in my mid or not??

  • Devon Smith > Darren Pfeiffer

    Dylan Shiel > Michael Barlow

    Good trade / Bad trade ??

    which means i have 6 premium midfielders..

    Stanton, Boyd, Murphy, Mitchell, Andrew Swallow, Michael Barlow ????

  • Do you think andrew swallow to pendlebury is a good trade ? Swallow yet to crack a ton ?

  • do people think thompson will be in the top 10 mids this year?? also watson or thompson??

    • You have posted 7 times already on this page asking for help.

      SHUT UP!

    • Take Watson now……….and upgrade Watson to Thompson when he does his hamstring.

  • know it’s early but done 2 trades to ease waiting pain…..

    d.smith>pffeifer
    porpoise>robinson

    who thinks these are good trades?

  • Great article as always Tbetta, one of, if not the best.
    Who does everyone think will be better from now on, Coniglio or Shiel?

  • “I don’t care what anyone says, a 130 and 140 from a Boyd feels a hell of a lot better than a 160 and a 90 from a Stanton.”

    Given that it’s 20 points more from Boyd, I doubt you would find anyone disagreeing with you!

  • who better to trade out of smedts and paine (both down back)
    i am thinking paine cos i doubt he will get many more games.

  • Hey guys,

    A mate of mine is doing an essay on Footy Records and what determines whether football goers purchase them or not and why. He has got official info about how much they sell etc. but thought it would be a good idea to get first hand information from the fans of the game as well. I suggested he post it here where arguably the most passionate fans congregate. The (short and multi-choiced) survey is below for those that are willing to answer it. Cheers

    http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/9RZVKLR

    PS. Love your work Tbetta. Great read and cheers for putting dt back into perspective especially after personally having a poor week.

  • Greta stuff TBetta!! Really enjoyed the read.

  • Is it worth it to bring Heath Scotland in this week even though he might still be charged with assault in the coming weeks?

    • Wouldn’t let that bother u too much mate, he will still play and won’t miss games because of it.

    • Don’t know what your bye structure is like but I’m holding off on him till after round 13 cos my defense is loaded with r13 byes already

  • J McCarthy you’re lucky no rookie is quite ready to milk. You are on your last warning mother fucker.

    • MCcarthy – Rockliff….BAM!, done me well for an upgrade

  • Gerarg Healy just said that Carlton have flagged that they will rest some stars vs GWS this week…..better not be Robbo, or I can see my laptop becoming a frisbee!

    • Mine’s already been a punching bag, a hammer and a doorstop these past three rounds. Thanks for the extra idea for next week!

    • Reckon Kruezer might be one of them.

  • Anyone have that urge to scratch that trading itch?

    After having traded 3 weeks in a row, I’ve gotten used to trading and feel like trading even with no one to trade. I guess it’s a good thing though. No suspension or injury concerns as of yet (touch wood).

    Although anyone have any news on Birchall, Hargrave or Gablett?

  • going to upgrade greene to simpson/s thompson????
    or should i get rid off chad cornes to beams/robo/cloke/zarakis???

  • Got to hold off one more week. So painful to watch my scores suffer for one more week, but just need a bit more cash from all my rookies before culling. Have $522k in the kitty, so no stress there!

  • My current Premium Mids are:

    Pendles, Ablett, Boyd, Mitchell

    I was looking at upgrading a rookie next week but want to work with the bye structure.

    I was thinking Rockliff or Swan

    Thoughts?????

    • You already have Boyd and prob at least 2 GWS mids. Rocky will prob need to wait till after his bye.

  • Consistently a great article to read tbetta!

    Want to bring in Pendles or Swanny this week (massive league game) but no rookies seem ripe enough to cull, prob Clay Smith if he still doesnt get another game..

  • hey guys,
    looking to mabey get rid of smedts this week from down back as my only trade, but options are limited, was thinking wilks? thought?

    hopefully dont get any other trades forced!!!

  • Thoughts on Carrazo to Broughton
    Can’t do any player from a team who has a bye in round 13.

  • upgrade to Pendelbury or Rockliff???

  • great read as always tbetta !! Thanks for your efforts.

  • Hey guys,does the eliminator run over the bye rounds as well,very unlikly ill still be alive but with my current ranking im putiing all my eggs in the eliminator basket

  • Great article Tbetta….top shelf as per usual!
    Just curious though and really dont know why i noticed …BUT did you photoshop Josh P. Kennedy’s head onto that swans body? Looks well out of whack ;)

  • Does anyone know if montagna got off??

  • Good stuff Tbetta
    skywalker all the way

  • Smedts instead of Pfieffer FMDT

    • I have Smedts and I’m not too worried about it, although I did have coverage in the backline.

      I put his score of 4 down to 2 things. The first obviously being sub. The second being the weather. It would have been tough for any rookie sub to score well in those conditions.

  • hey guys,
    looking to mabey get rid of smedts this week from down back as my only trade, but options are limited, was thinking wilks? thought?

    hopefully dont get any other trades forced!

  • where can i find the round 6 break evens?.

  • You say I may as well have taken a donut for Smedts, but I won by 3 points so his score of 4 actually got me over the line!

  • are hargrave and porps going to play this week and is kennedy going to return for gws