The Friday Scramble: Round 4

Last week was a shocker, this has been well documented.  But like they say in the cliche’s, you need to put this week behind you and take it one week at a time.  This week we have some more decisions to make.  The biggest one of all has come due to Nat Fyfe’s dodgy shoulder.  Just when we thought it was going to be a better week though, we then have a bit of carnage at the selection table.

We have had our first round of league games and have had some ups and downs.  I must say that in some of the teams that I played last week I saw some interesting player selections.   You are going to see a lot of this, if you lose to one of these teams that have a unique that you don’t have and they smash it for just that week, don’t stray from your strategy.  Make informed decisions and stick to your guns.

Why the hell did I pick that guy!

Last week we had some bad scores and bad luck.  We have some players that are really underperforming like Dusty Martin. He has scored a 79, 75 and 64 so far, this isn’t quite what we paid for to be honest, but there is only one piece of advice that I have in regards to this.  You decided to pick him for a reason and you should stick with your plan.  I have heard a lot on twitter this week that people are starting to plan on trading thier underperforming premiums.  Given that we are only at round 3 completed, there is no reason to panic.  If you are lucky you still have 24 trades left, but I think most people (including me) have 23 left currently after doing a swap from an underperforming rookie to a performing rookie last week.  I would be saving these trades.  Just remember what your plan was.  You would have gone into the season picking some guys in your initial squad that should still be there at the end of the year.  If you are thinking about trading one of these guys now, you really need to be sure of it and 100% sure that the guy you are trading to is going to be in your team at the end of the year.

 Trying to catch Lightning in a Bottle

In the DT off season I play a bit of NBA fantasy sports.  One of the podcasts I listen to has a guy whose favourite thing to say is “Don’t try and catch Lightning in a Bottle”.  I fear that this is what a lot of people are trying to do.  I have heard some comments this week about people wanting to sideways trade.  Lets have a look at how this went for a few people last week.

  • Broughton to Dempsey People jumped off Broughts quickly, and I must say I considered it but resisted.  However, they jumped from him to Dempsey.  We all know the results of that now.  Dempsey scored himself a 10 following his 94 and 63  compared to Broughton’s 109 after his 59 and 63.

This week I have seen twitter traffic (is that Twaffic?) about a swap from Golby to Conca.  Whilst Mitch Golby hasn’t been the player we were hoping for (me included) he has returned a 77, 59 and 63 for his starting price of $265,200 and has a BE of 62 which drops to 40 next week if he hits his projected score of 60.  Lets compare this to Conca who has scored a sub affected 35, 85 and 134 and has a BE of -24.  He is projected to increase greatly in price.  This is the main reason for people wanting to do this trade.  He will get you some quick cash but it comes at a great cost.  A trade!  Let’s look at the plan.  You are thinking of getting say Goddard with this trade.  You trade Golby to Conca and then upgrade him to Goddard after trading in another cow.  This has used 2 trades.  If you keep Golby and use another of your Cows to get the cash to get to Goddard from Golby you have only used the one trade.

The other thing that a lot of us did last week was try to jump all over Toby Greene last week as we could see he had a big negative break even.  Well he didn’t perform anywhere near as well as we had hoped last week and to top that all off we can give a big Stuff You Sheeds!  as he has become yet another victim of The General, General Soreness this week.  But once again, remember, you may have burnt one trade to get him in, don’t burn yet another to get him out just on that one fact.  He will be back, you are pretty much committed to him now.  He will go up, it is just a matter of him playing again and that won’t be far away.

I guess the moral of the story is that you need to conserve trades and make sure that any trades that you are making fall in line with your strategy that you started the year with.

 Rookie Randomness

Each week with all these rookies in our teams we inevitably have one or two spots on our field in each line that will need to be covered by a Rookie.  One of the things that is the most difficult choice for us each week is knowing which of these should be on our field earning us points each week.  Last week the big decision that people had to make was Bugg, Ellis or Morris on the field.  There was a lot of discussion and many people went with the Tiger boys because they were playing Melbourne only to see Buggy smash their scores.  The other area of the field that we thought was a lock which was the midfield, we all had The Magnet and expected another 100.  Remember it was only his third game and be happy that he is playing and scoring!

Just make sure that you realise that these guys are all rookies and are all heading into only their 4th game of footy so they will be inconsistent.

For mine this week, I would be selecting Bugg over the two Tiger boys and would pick Morris  over Ellis.  As for the Magnet, play him.  I would back him to outscore any of your other rookie mids just given his early couple of games.  Beyond him I think Kennedy  then Shiel.

The Avatar in the Room…

Well the saying might be Elephant, but the guy is built like a stick insect with way too much hair!  Nat Fyfe has been named and based on that we can only assume he will play.  The key for this week is to make sure that you are near a computer or your iphone (or android) just in case he is a late withdrawal.  I don’t think that he will get himself a green vest (which looked resplendant on Roy on Thurs night) but he is a massive chance for a red one if he gets a knock.  The surgeon has said that he will need surgery, but it is only a matter of when.  He thinks he can play out the season and based on that we have to assume that this is correct.  

If he plays, I keep him.  It is as simple as that.  Just remember that last year he had shoulder issues all year and he kept pumping out the massive scores.  I just think that a sideways trade at this stage is a risky thing, but having said that many of you may think that just his shoulders make him a massive risk.  At the end of the day it is you that hits the Trade Complete button and it comes down to your risk appetite.  The boys on the live show all agree with me that it isn’t worth the trade. 

The one thing that I would not advise is something I have heard around the place this week is that some people are thinking of trading him out and then bringing him back into their teams in a few weeks when he drops in price.  I just can’t see this being worth it as you only get 24 trades (unless you are Roy with the 26 he mentioned on Thurs night) and you have to use them wisely.

It was only a matter of time Heater…

Well on top of the crap scores that he has been posting, Heath Shaw is now out for two weeks with a Hammy along with Dale Thomas.  Heater has posted scores of 56, 66 and 81.  I think that when you bought Heath you knew what you were getting yourself into, but I think you would have expected better scores than this.  I think that this is one of the times that you may wish to sell before he does have another massive drop in price.  The other thing that makes me think he might be worth ditching is that it is a soft tissue injury for 2 weeks.  Those types of injuries can cause ongoing issues and could see him out for more than just this stint during the year.

Things to Remember for Round 4

  • Check Ya Bench!  Make sure that you have moved Adam Goodes, Brian Lake and Heath Shaw to your bench.  None of them are playing so last time I checked, they won’t score too well.  Oh, and if you have considered trading Goodes, reach for the mouse and navigate to the Delete Team button and click on it.  You don’t trade a premium if they are out suspended for only one week.
  • Pick Ya Captain.  Check out Calvin’s Captains from Wednesday to pick out your captain.  Many of us will go with our Perma Captain GAJ.  However, there is some valuable info and may make you think twice about Gazza.  But since most of the competition are going to have him, then you may want to stick with him just in case.
  • Select Ya Emergencies.  Last week I played against a guy that hadn’t selected any emergencies for his team!  Well stuff me if he didn’t have a guy that wasn’t playing and left some points on the bench.  That is the last thing we want to have happen.
  • Don’t Question Ya Strategy.  Stick with your plans.  You made them and you should stay with them.  Everything I have seen over the past few years is that guys who stay true to their teams and save trades are the ones that do the best.

Lastly, the guy that you should be trading is Matthew Leuenberger.  He has been put on the Long Term Injury list which means that he is now out for a minimum of 6 weeks.  So this should be more than enough for you to trade him out.

Round 4… bring it on!  We have had one league game and you don’t want to go 0-2 as it will take a while to come back from there!  Particularly when you have probably been spruiking your team to all your work mates for the last few weeks!  Last week I got up in 4 leagues and lost one of them.  I am hoping to recover in that league I lost in and come back with a win.  Sorry if I have missed any topics you wanted covered this week.  Next week let me know what you want to hear about during the week on Twitter @pkd73.

Now not only will round 4 be finished by the time that you hear from me again, we will have had the first game of round 5 on Anzac day.  I don’t think there are too many things that you will need from me for that game as there are no rookies that you would be playing but all the guys you would have are a lock in your starting line up.  Good luck and have a great Anzac Day and get yourself out to a Dawn Service and support our returned servicemen and servicewomen if you can.

204 Comments

  • Love your work Dunny.

    If Fyfe is a late withdrawal and you do need to do the trade, the common names (Robbo, Whitecross, Sidebum) keep coming up. What are peoples thoughts on Jordan Lewis from the Hawks, Very consistent in the mid to high 80’s with ability to get the odd big score.

    I guess i’m looking for some views on Pros and Cons on Lewis???

    • Pros: Dual Position, will never be dropped, plays in a strong side, pretty consistent, one of those guys you don’t feel dirty barracking for as he is actually a good player.
      Cons: Has tendency to get suspended, occasionally is given a tagging role, and most importantly is that average (say 85) good enough as a keeper?

      Overall, I don’t have Fyfe but if I did, I reckon Jordan would definitely be one I would be looking at.

  • J Cameron or smedts to either D Smith, R Stanley or Treloar???

  • Cant decide to trade in Robbo and Kreuzer/H-Mac or get Whitecross and Ryder… Thoughts? I dont have enough cash to get Robbo and Ryder. This is for Burger and Fyfe btw.

    • what has Whitecross ever done?…far better options out there

      • Umm well he is averaging 111… I already have Buddy, Fyfe (trading), Cloke, Zaharakis, Sidebum, Martin.

  • Hmm!!! everyone is favouring Old McDonald over Shiels. I’m putting Shiels in over Old Mac. Shiels has been named smack bang in the middle and he seems to be improving. A big ton coming from Shiels I reckon.

    Prove me wrong anybody?

    • I reckon McDonald is the safer choice, Shiels is the bolder choice.

      Depends on you goals – points, what you think you need to do to beat your opponent if league is most important etc.

      you’d think McDonald would be solid for 60-90, whereas Sheils might be 40-110.

      • *You’re

      • Now you have me thinking Old Mac haha!!! You are right about it maybe being the safest option. We all thought that the oldies might get vested but it hasn’t seemed to happen.

  • Anyone heard what the second shoulder specialist recommended re. fyfe?

  • Can’t be FYFED – Robbo in, saints will go for his shoulder all night (if he plays)

    Hey guys what u think of Adcock – Conca???

    • Adcock is a good smokey choice….when he`s not playing a defensive role can score big points…got to be different to win it

  • Which of these combinations will score more points for the year?

    Barlow + Whitecross
    OR
    Ziebell + Sidebottom

    I’m interested in opinions

    • I think Barlow and Whitecross have the potential to score more but its a close one. I think either combination would work well

  • Come across this accidently. It tickled my funny bone so thought I would share it.

    “DT often creates a full blown effect which is physically evident through shivering, palpitations, sweating, and convulsions. DT can even be fatal. In fact mortality was as high as 35% before the advent of intensive care and advanced pharmacotherapy; in the modern era of medicine however, death rates range from 5-15%”.

    Here DT is referring to Delirium Tremens (Latin for “shaking frenzy”, “the horrors” or “the shakes.”). It is an acute episode of delirium. Benzodiazepines are the treatment of choice for DT.

  • thinking shaw > Goddard.

    Fyfe thinking of keeping.
    or should i ofload him.

    Also have L.Parker from swans. Do i wait one week get in swan or get rid of him now for Judd.
    His B/E is 23 :)

    Plz help

    • Good move on shaw……I`d give Fyfe a week to see how he goes…..If he`s a late withdrawl tonight, look elsewhere.

  • For Sale 1 A.F.L DreamTeam
    comes with 30 players, some Guns, some rookies, suspensions, soft tissue injuries 1 popped shoulder as well as omissions.

    & last but not least a guarantee from Ross Lyon that all players will be playing & get a run in the mid-field.

    all offers welcome

  • With the backline listed below do you think it would be worth it to trade out Shaw for either Duffield and pocket the cash, Birchall or Suckling despite the effects of the R14 bye, some other that I haven’t thought of or just leave it as is?

    Goddard – Deledio – Waters – H.Shaw – Tomlinson – Ellis – Hargrave – Bugg – Smedts

  • Hi guys, my plan next week was to get McDonald but with Greene being rested I think it would be a waste of a trade, my other rookie mids are magner and Shiel should I save a trade and just miss the boat on Mcdonald?

    • He’s posted 1 good score, in a game with quite a few other good scores. Definitely don’t trade those blokes for him, at least until he backs up another good performance.

    • don`t waste a trade….greene will be back

      • Yeah I’m not trading this week that was never on the cards, my idea was to get Old Mac on the bubble next week if he comes good but now Greene has been rested I think I may just have to give Old Mac a miss and hope he doesnt average 90+

  • what do people think fyfe will score?

  • Just traded out shaw for houli because…
    a) he’s been crap
    b) faces 2 weeks on the sidelines and may continue to struggle thereafter
    c) is losing money fast

    Really trying to hold onto trades this year but I think this ones justified. Desperately wanted to offload martin to robbo as well but common sense prevailed… So my trade from shaw to houli, good move or bad move?

  • Dusty is gone for me, Whitecross is too good to pass up

  • Hey guys,
    Who should i play on the field, i Have Old McDonald, Shiels and Coniglio.
    Right now I have Coniglio on because I’m worried Maccas might be vested.

    • i have mags, mcdonald and shiel and i’m going old mac. In form and freshened. Mags will probably get me for dropping him but i predict all three will crack 80

    • Me likes the name!

  • Hey Dunny

    I also play fantasy NBA (along with NFL, MLB & NHL) as I am originally from the US and moved to Perth 8 years ago. Which site do you play on? Most of my teams are on sportsline.com

    Topic Related – AFL
    Broughton this week… Freo v. St Kilda, Lyon’s old team v. his new one who is now playing defensive boring not great DT scoring footy… Saints have quite a few small forwards that play well… Broughts may do a defensive role on one of them… all not looking good for his DT output…

  • Should I start D. Smith or A. Kennedy?
    And what does everyone think of Selwood as Captain? He’s playing Richmond at Skilled, so I reckon he’ll score highly. I’ll probably end up going Ablett, but I just wanna go different.

  • I traded Fyfe from my forward line for Barlow in my midfield. I now have Ablett, Swan, Watson, Mitchell and Barlow as my midfield keepers. Who should I play out of Magner and J McDonald in the last midfield position?

  • hey guys, does anyone know who would be the best replacement for Heath shaw. i only have 420k left

    • Considering only 7 players (def) are vauled over this and u may alreayd have Goddard or / and Lids u have a lot to choose from.

  • Dusty > Murphy would be worth it, right?

    The extra 20+ points a week, even on a good day for Dusty, would be worth burning a trade for now. Wouldn’t it?

    ?

    • 20??? – try 40-60 points

      • You’re probably right. I pinned Dusty on an average good day at about 90 and an average day for Murphy at about 110.

        Still a bit reluctant to burn the trade though, even though I’ll still have $50k and 20 trades left.

    • Surely you have other problems than Dustys slow start, he will be a top 7 forward at the end of the year just keep the faith it will reward you

      • Assuming we don’t get too many repeats of last weekend’s scoring carnage, that’s my biggest problem right now.

        Heath Shaw was, but he’s gone for Scotland.

        Fyfe’s another, but unless he’s a late withdrawal and has an uncertain future, he’s staying.

        Just can’t see Dusty averaging the 85+ that would make him a good enough F6/7 in my final team. Will probably still keep faith though.

  • after an abysmal score last week I need to trade in another premium. Fyfe is playing so I’m not trading until I have to. Grimes and Caddy are serial under performers even if I should give them time so

    What do you think of Grimes to Scotland and Caddy to Couch/Treloar/Pfeiffer/Neale?

    Also which of those rookies?

    This would leave my starting side as:
    D: Goddard, Deledio, Scotland, Heppell, Dempsey, Clarke, Bugg (Ellis, Tomlinson)
    M: Pendlebury, Watson, Rockliff, Magner, D.Smith, McDonald (Shiel, Greene)
    R: Ryder, McIntosh (Giles, Redden)
    F: Johnson, Franklin, Fyfe, Lewis, Sidebottom, Martin, A.Kennedy (Hall, Couch?)

    • I would get Scotland for Grimes, Scotland has a high ceiling and his scores may improve this year as Carlton looks to be one of the most DT-Friendly teams

  • I’ve decided to throw Fyfe into my midfield and have Shiel as an emergency just in case. Brought Smith and Kennedy into the forward line to play it safe. At least if Fyfe doesn’t end up playing I’ve got an emergency set who will at least give me some points. Though know he will so not too worried.

  • Any update on Birch?

    Didn’t really need to trade but I can’t afford to loose a premo back.

  • FMDT i have Fyfe, might not play. Birchall probably wont play. and shane mumford ! FMDT !!

    • Mumford out hurt me greatly, had Longer an Redden on the bench soI don’t have anyone to replace him with.

  • Martin is giving me the shits

    Backline has wilkes and grimes on the pine (not playing).. with ellis, dempsey and birchell all potentially missing this week.

    Thinking of – – – –

    D.Martin to Stanley to free up $$

    Wilkes to Drummond (i know he’s injury prone but come on, 95 in his first game back and is only 220k)

    THoughts?

  • Seems Mumford is late withdrawl for Swans according to superfooty tweet.

  • This is what I am thinking about doing with Fyfe.

    1. Trade him to Robinson this week
    2. Hopefully save my trades next week,
    3. In 2 or 3 rounds time Fyfe should be about 100k cheaper, downgrade a rookie like C.Smith or Shiel to someone like Neale or Pfeiffer and upgrade Porps to Fyfe.

    However this is if everything goes right. What do you think?

    P.S Still have 23 trades left.

  • i traded shaw for hurn… good idea or bad idea?

  • i have to get rid of the mummy… his late withdrawals are killing me…

    was thinking either
    Ryder (in top form)
    Sandi.

    Thoughts?

    • You have to weigh up the risks. Ryder’s unreliable scoring vs Sandi’s glass toe. Personally I would suggest If you don’t have Hmac, go him.

      • Hmac will be my number 1 ruck then…

        is he good enough for that?

        i have giles as number 2.

        • Well at the moment he is averaging 89 points a game with a BE of -7, so I would say yes. He is also 120-150k cheaper giving you some rookie upgrade money for in a few weeks.

    • ROUGHHEAD

  • Hi Guys

    I have Mumford, Giles (Redden and Stephenson) + 160K

    Option A

    Mumford to Sandilands/Kreuzer/Hmac/Ryder

    Option B

    Trade Redden to Hmac to cover the 0 and keep Mumford

    Which one?

    Also if you think option A, which one should I go to??

    • Trade Mumford to Hmac. He is much cheaper and has the second highest projected score for rucks this round. He also has a BE of -7.

  • I have Fyfe, Shaw and Mumford out this week:

    Option A

    Bench Fyfe and play Hall, trade Shaw to Goddard and Mumford to Hmac

    Option B

    Bench Fyfe and play Hall, trade Shaw to Goddard and Redden to Hmac

    Option C

    Bench Fyfe and play Hall, trade Shaw to Waters and Stephenson to Hmac

    Option D

    Bench Fyfe and play Hall, bench Shaw and play Morris and trade Mumford to Hmac

    Option E

    Bench Fyfe and play Hall, bench Shaw and play Morris and trade Redden/Stephenson to Hmac

    Option F

    Trade Fyfe – Pearce, bench Shaw and play Morris and trade Mumford to Hmac

    Option G

    Trade Fyfe – Pearce, bench Shaw and play Morris and trade Stephenson to Ryder/Hmac

    A lot of options this week for me, so which do you think is the best option????

  • Fyfe out as we all expected

  • I just don’t get it, why save trades? why not try and get the best scoring team now? why do we need to keep so many (24) trades for later? what if later never come’s? imo use 6-8 trades early to get your best team then upgrade your cows later, but this is only like8-10 trades.

    so why are saving trades so important????

    • It’s not a matter of saving trades ,it’s more not wasting trades.
      Let your cash cows fatten up before trading.

      • …if your trading now after one price rise, they’re more likely sideways trades with no real gain ,
        as averages even out over the course of the year.
        If you need to do 6-8 trades before round 6 it means you picked a shit team
        and your already out of the race.