Dream Team Stock Market – R4

It’s back! Bigger and better than ever. The #DTSM (Dream Team Stock Market), is your one stop shop, for pretty much, well, everything! Dream Team might have the Assistant Coach (for $19.95), but the Assistant Coach doesn’t have me (free of course) or twitter (also free) or have a crystal ball (umm, working on that part).

For those of you new to the Dream Team Stock Market, quite simply, it’s the bees neez when it comes to working out and deciding how to make money for your dream team and speed up the process in which you raise your salary cap to create the competitions ultimate side! Remember, at the start of the year, players (besides LTI’s, rookies or players returning from Ireland) are valued at how they performed last season. You spend the money, you are banking on that player to perform to that value. The more money you have to spend, the more money you have to spend on players that are performing! That’s why it is so important to know when to jump off a player that has peaked and jump on someone at a lower than valued price.

 

What a bizarre weekend of AFL. If you managed to dodge all of the DT land mines this week, buy a lotto ticket, it won’t happen again. Quick reminder, the Dream Team Stock Market is about the money first, the rest second. It’s that simple. Yes I try and slot players and rank players based off their DT input, but it is primarily, to make your salary cap explode! It’s also a bit of fun! I provide as much of my knowledge with Dream Team and Maths the best I can, the rest it’s all about getting involved and enjoying Dream Team (thanks Pendles).

Next week I will do a little write up in regards of when is the best time to trade out your cashed up rookies. This article took me a billion hours to write as i’ve been out of town till Tuesday. Sorry if I couldn’t cram everything in that I would like, as I could probably talk about every single player if I had the time! Anyways, LETS GET CRACKING!!

 

MONEY MAKERS – BUY BUY BUY

 

 

1. James Magner (MID) $166,500 (↑$80,700) B/E: -47 AVG: 85 LAST 3: 103, 106, 48

Ok so Magner (like many others) didn’t have a great game against the Tigers with a pretty poor 48. Still managed to increase his own value by $80k. There is no need to panic, his spot is assured in the Melbourne Mid-Field and it was only his 3rd ever game in the AFL. I’m sure Magner will come out all guns blazing this week against the Bulldogs. Plenty of money still to be made from the Magnet.

Weekly Stock Market Prediction: ↑$50,000 – $55,000

 

2. Jonathon Giles (RUC) $185,600 (↑$67,800) B/E: -50 AVG: 82 LAST 3: 77, 104, 65

As I have stated previously, if Giles isn’t in your ruck division, he must be. You’ll need to jump on quickly before his value defeats the purpose of trading him in. A 65 last week vs the Bombers was reasonable. Up against Adelaide this week, where I think he will compete exceptionally well. Keep it up Mr Giles.

Weekly Stock Market Prediction: $50,000 – $55,000


3. Thomas Bugg (DEF) $176,000 (↑$71,800)– B/E: -37 AVG: 82 LAST 3: 97, 57, 93

He’s into my top 3 now. Only averaging 3 less than midfield magnet Magner, he is having a great start to his AFL career. Cracked the 90’s again last week with a 93 and if he can sustain 2 more 90+’s in the next 2 weeks, his price will sky rocket even further once his Round 2 57 jumps out of the equation. All that aside, he is a must for all teams at this stage.

Weekly Stock Market Prediction: ↑$45,000 – $50,000

 

4. Devon Smith(MID/FWD) $180,800 (↑$59,600)– B/E: -43 AVG: 76 LAST 3: 69, 72, 87

Another solid game for Devon, he is slowly winding himself up with increasing scores. Which is perfect for a future cash in! Hopefully everyone has this machine in their side already!

Weekly Stock Market Prediction: ↑$45,000 – $50,000

 

5. Toby Greene (MID) $203,600 ( ↑$68,900) – B/E: -30 AVG: 86 LAST 3: 99, 107, 54

The hype for Greene was short lived, but he is averaging 1 more point a game than Magner, go figure. Still, put his last weeks score of 54 aside and he is still cashing up nicely. Hopefully this week he bumps things back up again.

Weekly Stock Market Prediction: ↑$45,000 – $50,000

 

5. Tom Simpkin (DEF) $197,900 – B/E: -37 AVG: 82

A little higher priced than the other cash cows to start the year off, Simpkin looked great last week. With a solid score of 106 and job security in my eyes looking great, maybe he is set for a big year at St Kilda. Unique option also.

Weekly Stock Market Prediction: ↑$40,000 – $45,000

 

6. Orren Stephenson (RUC) $98,700 – B/E: -25 AVG: 49

The big “O” returned this week and I was more than excited to see a 77 next to his name after his Round 1 22. With more solid games like last week, he will be the perfect number 4 ruck for all DT sides. Don’t have him? You are mad.

Weekly Stock Market Prediction: ↑$35,000 – $40,000

 

7. Adam Kennedy (FWD/MID) ( ↑$71,400) $176,600 – B/E: -17 AVG: 82 LAST 3: 116, 72, 58.

AK40 had a game to forget but wasn’t super terrible by any stretch. Going in reverse to his fellow DPP teammate Smith. Hopefully he steers the ship back on track and busts out another Rd 1 100+ this week.

Weekly Stock Market Prediction: ↑$35,000 – $40,000

 

8. Rhys Stanley (FWD) $226,000 ( ↑$61,800) – B/E: -41 AVG: 87 LAST 3: 76, 98, 88.

The highest averaging player in my Money Makers list. This unique forward option would be more than handy for the 18,000 coaches who currently have him locked and loaded.

Weekly Stock Market Prediction: ↑$35,000 – $40,000

 

DTSM “Buy, Buy, Buy” Watchlist:

Koby Stevens (MID) $104,200 – B/E -99 AVG: 83 – I’ve watched this guy all pre-season, but he didn’t catch the bus for Round 1. Watch. This. Guy.

James McDonald (MID) $98,700 – B/E –133 AVG: 98 – Back from suspension and raring to go. J-Mac next week anyone?

Adam Tomlinson (MID/FWD) $143,700 – B/E -32 AVG: 62 – Keeps his average should increase $38,000 in value. Solid.

Billy Longer (RUC) $148,200 – B/E: -23 AVG: 59 – With Leuenberger going down like a BigMac, Longer should be given valuable game time and be a more than handy option.

 

 

BUDGET BREAKERS – SELL, SELL, SELL

 

1. Matthew Leuenberger (RUC) $405,200 (↓$53,900) B/E: 155 AVG: 56

Same principle as Fyfe, but the Berger is definitely out for 6 weeks minimum with an achilles injury. Which hurts in more ways than one. If you have him, there is a fair chance you went with 1/3 ruck strategy, so it’s time to move him. For those that didn’t go with Leuenberger, what a mid-season upgrade he could be. Here’s hoping his achilles injury doesn’t drag out all year, as they have the ability to do that. Billy Longer anyone?

Verdict: $25,000 to shed off his price next time he plays.

Trade Suggestions: P.Ryder $422,600, H.McIntosh $308,600, B.Longer $148,200.

 

2. Luke Ball (MID) $438,900 ($37,600) – B/E: 170 AVG: 74

Shattering. I love Luke Ball. But if you are one of the unlucky 3,100 coaches, part ways with the great man. Season over. Or hold onto him and put him back on the ground! Oh wait, that’s already happened.

Verdict: OUT FOR SEASON. TORN ACL.

 

3. Ryan O’Keefe (FWD/MID) $460,900 – B/E: 220 AVG: 38

This seems like Deja Vu. He isn’t getting involved. 71% game time last week for 60. Not the worst result but still crap. Cash out or wait to grab an absolute bargain mid-year.

Verdict: To drop $60,000 this week.

 

4. Nathan Fyfe (MID/FWD) $450,000 (↓$36,600)– B/E: 182 AVG: 77

The stock market isn’t just about losing money, it’s losing production. Don’t get me wrong, here at the DTSM, Fyfe is a fan favourite and when I saw him go down on the weekend, my coffee table copped a belting. Even if he gets up and plays this week, is his productivity going to be affected? Will he manage to play the remainder of the year? I have my concerns. I hope he does and continues to dominate. But for me, too much risk. Has dropped $36,600 this week, that could quickly turn into $100k. Get better soon Fyfe. Plenty to think about here.

Verdict: Watch the news. Price drop of $55,000 or practically season over.

 

5. Todd Goldstein (DEF) $433,000 ($58,600) – B/E: 154 AVG: 60

Bad to worse for Todd. Is the obvious 2nd choice ruckman atm for the Kangaroos and his DT output is showing just that. Jump off now if you are still hanging onto some hope because it has already left the station.

Verdict: Price drop of $35,000 looking likely this week, nearly $100k down in 4 games!

 

6. Andrew Mackie (DEF) $355,000 ($37,300) – B/E: 152 AVG: 55

18? You played 70% of the match and you scored 18? James Magner scored that in 30 seconds. You aren’t the real Andrew Mackie! If you do have this impostor, you are kidding yourself. Is a long way from any relevant form and his normal self. A big no no for me. 18, get out of here!

Verdict: Set to fall off the edge of the earth. Wait for re-entry in 2013.

 

7.  Greg Broughton (DEF) $399,900 ($16,300) – B/E: 81 AVG: 78

But Aki, Broughton scored 109 last week and is going to dominate for the rest of the year and help me win a car! PISS OFF. Broughton could have scored 250, be hailed as the next Ablett, be dating Miranda Kerr and save a million kittens from a bushfire…. I’d still be slotting him into the Sell, Sell, Sell!! Greg if you are reading this, as a DT Coach, you make my balls cut themselves off. And yes, I traded you last week.

Verdict: In all fairness, his B/E is reachable and looked ok when Fyfe went down. You run the gauntlet, DTSM isn’t.

 

8.  Mitchell Golby (DEF) $270,600 ($5,400) – B/E: 62 AVG: 63

I am writing this to put a few DT coaches at ease. Trade him the $@*& out. Bit harsh? He isn’t DT relevant this year. The mid-priced option backfired, swallow it, turn him into a rookie and use the cash to invest in some reading glasses next season. I still love you though.

Verdict: Bad decision.

 

 

DTSM – PICKS OF THE WEEK

 

 

1. Michael Barlow (MID) $399,400 ($25,400) – B/E: 91 AVG: 72

Do we really need any other reason to buy Barlow? Yes you will be feeling short changed if you went with him at the start of the year (what were you thinking?) but now’s the time to get on him. His B/E of 91 is so gettable, he has the potential to get that in a half. Church change under $400k, sneak him in, somehow!

 

2. Reece Conca (DEF) $303,400 ($29,300) – B/E: -24 AVG: 84

The hype around this kid pre-season has been evident. He just delivered last week on what we all thought he was capable of. He looks awesome. The only downside is the Tigers have so many DEF players in DT, who do you go with? After Deledio, my pick is Conca. Just a touch over $300,000 he will not be that cheap again.

 

3. Paul Duffield (DEF) $352,600 ($5,400) – B/E: 70 AVG: 81

Forget Broughton, the man Ross Lyon wants to set up the play for the Dockers is this man. Dominated last week across half back for a solid score of 117. Look for more consistency and game time for the Docker great.

 

4. Jack Ziebell (MID) $384,900 – B/E: -31 AVG: 139

Has this kid arrived, finally? Was AWESOME against the Cats last week booting 4 goals. Looks fresh, fit and chomping at the bit. Lets hope his colossal sized courage doesn’t make him miss games. He is an absolute jet.

 

 

Tweet-A-Trade

 

 

A new little segment to get my followers on twitter involved. Looking at a specific player, heard rumours, need to go unique? Starting from next week, Tweet me on a Wednesday night after 8pm with the #DTSM hashtag and a player you want me to talk about and I’ll pick the best 3 to get in the #DTSM.

 

A little crazy indeed Justin but not as crazy as people think. Chad has pumped out 111, 117 and 74 and is averaging bang on 100. Priced $363,900 ($33,600) and as a FWD (wtf) you could do far worse. The GWS boys looking for the once DT God every chance they get and we all know Chad loves getting involved. Bold and unique. Will rise another $20,000 or so this week with a B/E of 43.

Great suggestion. Brad Ebert is on fire. He looks the goods! Scores so far of: 129, 82 and 123 with an average of  111 is scorching. Had a price rise of $52,400 this week and will jump a further $20-$25,000k this week. Looks to have a new lease of life at Port and would be another perfect unique option for many DT sides.

 

The beard got a bit greedy but he makes some brilliant suggestions. Scott Selwood $468,800 ($37,800) is a man possessed and is averaging a lazy 126 (B/E 20). He could well be in the top 5 midfielders at end of the year with his potential. The DTSM team are considering a sneaky trade to get him in! As for Brendan Whitecross $412,000 ($34,200), I am still not sold on him being a regular fixture in DT, but he is starting to prove me wrong. Averaging 111 (B/E 25) as a FWD option is great. Can you have Franklin and Whitecross in same team? That’s up to you.

 

 

Just a quick shout-out to Dream Team fan and Collingwood Skipper Nick Maxwell (@maxy5). Last week I managed to raise $300 for the Make-A-Wish foundation via Twitter. Maxy gave me a shout out (he is a Make-A-Wish ambassador) and then my bank account took a hit! But all for a wonderful cause. I hope to get more of this going further in the year. Also a thanks to fellow #BeastsOfTheEast member Leigh Douthie for contributing a further $20 (my SC league entry fee, what a legend!) to my Make-A-Wish pledge, onya mate, we will organise a bigger fundraiser soon!

Thanks for the tweets and thanks for reading legends!

 

@Aki_DT (#DTSM)

 

 

219 Comments

  • Martin out for Barlow or
    Fyfe out for Barlow?

    • Good thinking Skull. It’s party time! Do both. We have 24 trades surely we can have 2 Barlows.

      • McS, pretty sure there’s a little something in there called an “or”. Makes sense now doesn’t it!!!

    • wait to see if fyfe is playing first…plus barlow isnt likely to have a great price increase…if any at all.

  • Dustin martin > whitecross or cornes
    or
    Fyfe > whitecross or cornes

    then Greene > Barlow or scott selwood?

  • I have both Luenberger and Fyfe and have 100k in the bank which means I can get any ruckman in the comp and still be able I afford Barlow

    My two trades I was thinking going Fyfe to Barlow and Luenberger to Sandilands, but would like some suggestions to who you think I should trade in

    Cheers

    • sounds gd to me…although fyfe may not have to be traded…upto u

    • I would go with the Berger to Sandi! he is always going to be in the top 5 ruckmen. That is a good trade!!!

      Fyfe to Barlow, Im not to sure of, Everyone is saying Barlow this Barlow that, they say alot can change in a couple of weeks well it has been along time since Barlow was pumping out consistent hundereds. Yes he has been scoring well pts/min however I would like to see a few more games from him. I also believe you only ever upgrade to super premium that are scoring well, i got stung last year trying to be to cute going for RISKYtelly, instead of Ablett just because i was a little short on money. When upgrading go for the best and dont settle for second!!

  • Fyfe has to go IMO.

    My only real concern at the moment is McEvoy. Not sure if I should punt him for Sandilands.

    • McEvoy is the only recognised ruckman at the saints, I dont know about you but thats why i picked him. Last week he was down a bit (didnt have as many stoppages because they ran all over the dogs) but still he is averaging 80 and if he does that all season I will be happy with that as I will look have him as a second ruck to one of Sandi, Cox or Mumford!!!

      • I’ve also got McEvoy, and Stanley is definately impacting on his scoring, just like Nic Nat is impacting on Cox’s scoring!
        Oh yeah, I’ve got Cox as well……should’ve gone 1/3 in the rucks…….oh well!
        But yeah, both Cox and McEvoy go missing when they’re not rucking and their time on the ball has been drastically reduced thusfar.
        A bit of a worry actually!

        • Ahhh i never thought about Stanley doing ruck work and now that you mention him i just took a look at his stats I see he has been getting some hit outs and possesions as well, I just figured that Kossie was doing a bit of ruck work. You just cant assume in this game!! I was just thinking that Stanley was a dud in a purple patch, scoring a few goals up front.

    • Most ruckman seem to have a bit of a habit of starting the season slowly DT wise, stick with Mac as he should do well over the year as the main ruckman.

  • Is fyfe to dangerfield a good trade because it frees up 100k to I I can get Barlow or ziebell next?? Or should I spent more cash and get whitecross, harvey, chappy or Stevey j ????

  • I have to ask this because I’m not sure who to get for fyfe.
    Made up my mind that I will keep him if he plays but if he doesn’t I’m unsure who to get.
    My forward line at the moment is
    Franklin, Fyfe, Sidebottom, Martin, Dangerfield, Porplyzia, D. Smith
    I would appreciate any feedback on who I should get for Fyfe

  • who to get for fyfe?
    forward line currently is Franklin, Fyfe, SIdebottom, Martin, Dangerfield, Porplyzia and Smith

  • Seems to me that the “Brennan Syndrome” will catch a few people out over the next few weeks. Average players out-performing themselves with some big games early, only to drop back to their normal crap scores after people have traded them in. :-)

  • I can’t believe people are knee-jerking with premos who have had a bad game!
    Trading out Pendles? Goodes? Stevie J? Pav? ……..heaps more……it’s crazy!

    How do you expect to have a team full of premos if you’re sideways trading them?

    Anyway, I’ll probably bench GAJ this week, as the notification says “historically he doesn’t score well vs Bris.” :-)

    (I can’t believe a few coaches will be down 4 trades going into rnd 4! I’ve got some major repair work to be made courtesy of going overboard with mid-pricers, but not at the expense of trades this early!
    I hated using the 2 last week….even though they’re kinda compulsory if you stuffed up your rooks or missed on the better ones!)

  • Cheers Aki, great read!

    Can anyone tell me which round last year Fyfe dislocated his shoulder?

  • Um Golby is avergaing 63 not 50 and has a BE of only 62 not 150

  • Have worked out the moo to score ratio on the trades people have proposed means they don’t have a clue.

    play the break evens and you can’t go wrong. Fyfe for one more week at least!

  • I have 277k left
    do i use is to upgrade golby to another premo or higher priced mid pricer…
    i think i’ll wait one more round. because golby can probabaly make his breakeven of 62 this round against the gold coast. if he dosent score 77, he’ll be out of my team though.
    i wanna save my money for upgrades in the future though
    but who would you trade golby for????

    • If u are going to trade Golby needs to be to a premium IMO, otherwise you are likely to get another midpricer who will just dick u around for a number of weeks b4 u upgrade him.

  • I haxe 112.600 in bank. I also have Fyfe and I am Ranked 8,802.
    Think I might hold onto Fyfe if he plays Friday night.

  • Just wanted to point out, the article says Giles got a nice 65 against the Bombers, when it should instead be against the Eagles. GWS and Essendon have not played each other yet.

  • Thank’s Pettiger mate, this year I’m ty
    ring to do the smart things instead of just Trading all the time.

    Last week I thought of Trading out Broughton to Dempsey but I held onto the guy that wears the purple footy jumper, the main reason was because Dempsey is a bit Injury prone and look what happened.

    The only Trades I have done are Out I Smith In T Green then I Traded Out Golby In Goddard.

  • Good article but what about Pavlova in the sell sell sell section? Premium price averaging 70 odd, pretty disappointing especially for people who picked him for his consitency to average in the mid 90s.

  • broughton to duffield?

    • Broughton to Duffield is not a good trade. Especially now Fyfe has at least a niggle. You chose Broughton as a keeper, and after 3 weeks people jump off. Biggest mistake this time of year is people not sticking with their research. So many learnt the hard way with the Broughton to Dempsey trade. Cost a trade on what looked like a bad trade anyhow. Long term history says Broughton, now short-term they’ve been made to suffer for some bad thinking. Stick with your guns.

  • I have a dilemma, I didn’t get caught up in the Fyfe cluster**** but I did screw up my forward line horribly anyway. So far I am happy with the rest of my team except for possibly having too many rookies in the back line. Wondering if I could offer up the options I’m thinking of for this week and you guys could point me in the right direction.

    I have J. Riewoldt, Hurley and Goodes who are all putting their hands up to be traded. I’m thinking of getting rid of Hurley and putting in Treloar or Horlin-Smith (hopefully he can stay in geelong’s 22, scored 58 from half a game) and then swapping my lowest performing rookie defender for Conca. Otherwise I could trade out one of the 3 fwds for possibly Whitecross and just stick with my rookies in the back line. Thoughts?

  • Yes I forgot to chang Brad Green’s prices and breakeven to Mitch Golby’s this week. Instead of bitching and moaning about a human error, why don’t you take the over 2200 words I wrote for this article and be appreciative.

    My mistake! My apologies if you choked on your toast this morning.

  • I offloaded Broughton last week – no regrets. No desire to ride a rampaging rollercoaster of Ross Lyon’s whimsical design.

  • why no eagles and hawks tickets on resale members fuuuu

    • there were, just sold out in about 10 minutes! can you blame the members for not wanting to miss this one?

  • Good article Aki, always an interesting read and hot topic for discussion

    Don’t agree with some of your conclusions though re Fyfe / Broughton / Golby but hey maybe thats more just wishful thinking since I own all three.

    Golby has two decent scores in the 70’s (All be it with a 42 sandwiched in the middle playing on Betts) I will hold on to him untill after the MBR’s then upgrade him

    Broughton played 2 tough opponents in the opening 2 rounds and then bounced back with a 109, no way I would trade a player after they score a ton

    Fyfe- Tough decision but don’t wont to ruin my bye structure set up in my fwd line and I like him as a player, If I traded him out everytime he scored a ton it would hurt a little.

    Personally I think watching a player tonne it up after you trade him out is harder then watching them score the odd mediocre score in your team. As long as Fyfe avg 90+, Broughton 80+ and Golby 70+ which all seems reasonable, I am happy to hold off on any trades

    • Mate Im hearing you. I have all three and will not be trading them, this week.
      Great write up also.

    • I agree with you completely. Nothing more heartbreaking than seeing a player you just traded out ton it up. In regards to Fyfe, there not really any good options from the Rd12 bye players. I too don’t want to mess up my bye structure.

  • No one has really een talking about Jack Grimes and I have all 3 of the suspened players, Im think of trading Grimes to Jackson Trengove or Jarryn Geary, thoughts?

  • When do teams come out

  • if i trade fyfe who for? thoughts would be appreciated

    • the cast of replacements is numerous because Fyfe is a DPP. Because of this and depending how your team is set up you could trade him for a mid or fwd. It all depends on how much money you want to spend/recoup. A few names that come to mind are Robinson, Barlow, Ziebell and Selwood but there are many others

    • To help you could post if he is in your mids or forwards and if you have a link either way :)

  • Ohh Nathanial ohh Nathanial, what art thou fuck should I do with you Nathanial.

  • I’m thinking of sending the great Dane in for Fyfe..

    Thoughts?

  • Grimes and Shaw out in my defence. Should I trade one or both? Probably not wanting to trade Shaw but….

    • Oh, also, hoping Fyfe keeps playing to make me feel better about trading Broughton and I’ll be able to pick him up cheap

    • You have to keep Shaw.

      Grimes to Malceski is an option if you have enough cash. I like the look of him this season.

  • traded duffield in last year,,after some alright scores he went downhill bigtime..26,followed by 23,,,he could be gary abletts twin brother fo all i care, i still will never go near him again

  • I hope everyone jumps off Fyfe, might make him a tiny bit unique – r
    He popped his shoulder last year and still played out the entire season, I think he can do it again!
    Also, to the people who think he will get vested… do you seriously think Freo are going to play him just to vest him? If they vest him they may as well not risk him at all.

  • “Andrew Mackie (DEF) $355,000 (↓$37,300) – B/E: 152 AVG: 55

    18? You played 70% of the match and you scored 18? James Magner scored that in 30 seconds. You aren’t the real Andrew Mackie! If you do have this impostor, you are kidding yourself. Is a long way from any relevant form and his normal self. A big no no for me. 18, get out of here!”

    Andrew Mackie didn’t play 70% of the game, he got smashed in a contest halfway through the second quarter, didn’t come back on whilst they assessed him, and then he was subbed out at half-time.

    The 70% is referring to his TOG % over the first 3 games!

  • Who’s gonna score better Neale or Coniglo?

  • Ball is definately in my team next year!