Chook’s Rooks – Round 3

Magner-ficient

Amid the canings and controversies at Melbourne, midfield recruit James Magner ($85,800) has made a blistering start to his AFL, and Dream Team, career. Two hundreds from two outings has him rarefied company, but please don’t call him the new Michael Barlow. Firstly, not taking anything away from Magner, but when Barlow got started in 2010, he did so with a couple of 120s, not straight centuries. Secondly, the last player to win comparisons to Barlow – Carlton midfielder Ed Curnow after a fast start last year – then sustained a long-term injury that saw him dumped from all our teams. Let’s not put that on the Magnet. He’s shown us his immense scoring potential and he’s got rock-solid job security so, quite simply, if you haven’t got him yet then don’t be stubborn and do it now. You won’t see a better breakeven this year than his -153.

Rub of the Greene

Most respectable coaches will already have Magner chained to their midfield six, but far fewer are lucky enough to have Greater Western Sydney midfielder Toby Greene ($134,700). His 103-point average over the first two games has got coaches scrambling to get him in before a likely pay day of about $40k-$60k this weekend, with the most popular moves seemingly a straight midfield swap for as-yet-underperforming teammate Stephen Coniglio ($175,200), which also yields about $40k change, or utilising a dual-position link in the midfield to ship Western Bulldogs forward Tory Dickson ($98,700). Either trade looks appealing, but should be treated cautiously, with fantasy heavyweight Warnie having questioned whether Greene can maintain a higher average than Cogs over the long-term, and GWS expert RL Griffin signalling that his job security could be doubtful as the Giants look to make room for the likes of Brogan, McDonald, O’Hailpin and others. Personally, I feel like I’ve got too many injury/form/positional concerns in other areas of my team to make the “luxury” trade of bringing in Greene, although I’ll certainly consider it if Mumford and Duffield get the all clear.

The rest of the two gamers

St Kilda forward Terry Milera ($115,800) is attracting plenty of attention, especially from those who have already got GWS mid-fwd Adam Kennedy ($104,200) or those that are sick of the sight of Aaron Hall ($98,700) or Dickson’s sub-affected or just-plain-crappy scores. An 85 against the Gold Coast on Sunday bumped Milera’s average up to 79.5, placing him seventh behind Magner, the GWS quartet of Greene, James McDonald, Kennedy and Jon Giles, and Saints teammate and fellow forward Rhys Stanley ($164,200). He could continue that average for the remainder of the season, but it’s not very likely, given the defensive frailties of the two sides he’s played thus far in Port Adelaide and the Suns, and the fact that he might be squeezed out by the likes of Adam Schneider and Jason Gram in the coming weeks. I won’t mention GWS pair Giles ($117,800, ruck) or Tommy Bugg ($104,200, defender) as everyone already has them, making the next most fantasy relevant player Western Bulldogs midfielder Clay Smith ($107,700). The excitement around Smith died down this week after he failed to back up his scintillating debut. He wasn’t terrible – far from it – but was certainly a lot quieter in round two, notching 53 points before donning his second red vest of the season in the Bulldogs’ Saturday night loss to Adelaide. Listed as needing a test for an ankle injury this week, Smith will struggle to win over those coaches now eyeing off Greene, but could well finish the season as the better buy.

One gamers

After being a late withdrawal from St Kilda’s round-one loss, Saints midfielder Tom Ledger ($163,200) started as the sub against the Gold Coast and chalked up 33 points. Not a great return so far if you took a punt on him from the start, although he could yet prove to be a solid scorer once he dumps the vest. Fellow Saints mid Jack Newnes ($98,700) played his first match of the year in the round-two thumping of the Suns, but doesn’t look fantasy relevant at this stage with just 36 points. The round’s other first gamer was North Melbourne defender Cameron Delaney ($104,200), who scored 58 on debut, but will want to improve his kick-to-handball ratio if he’s going to tempt DT coaches, with just six of his 19 touches against GWS by foot.

Who have you got your eye on in this all-important first week of price changes? Dumping any underperforming rooks? Let everyone know in the comments, or on twitter @ChookDT.

270 Comments

  • Goddamit I wish Greene was a fwd

  • Golby to Lake..
    Thoughts?

  • Which one out of Birchall, Carrazo or Heppel (byes don’t matter)

    Thanks :)

  • Hilarious first post. Well done to all!!

  • Is it worth taking the punt on Dempsey. With 2 great scores at his price could be looking at Broughton to Dempsey. Frees up alot of cash and 2 rounds time can go Ledger/Smith to Barlow.

    Thoughts on Dempsey?
    And should i go Broughton –

    A) Carrazo
    B) Adcock
    C) Dempsey

    Thanks..Also another great write up Chooky.

  • Great article again Chook.

    Would love your advice. I know your thoughts on the Conigs >>> Greene trade but I was thinking about the Caddy >>> Greene trade.

    I see neither as keepers but really just want to make a quick buck. Am thinking that 2 or 3 more good weeks from Greene and he may even pass Caddy’s then price tag.

    My mids are:
    Ablett, Pendles, Swan, Thompson, Caddy, Magner, Conigs and Shiel

    I love how Caddy plays and he is a tackling machine but just doesn’t seem to find enough easy points.

    • Ur team is shit.
      Its worst then Relton Roberts.

      • ‘Its worst then Relton Roberts.’

        Let us look at that comment.
        ‘Its’ should be It’s.
        ‘Worst’ should be worse.
        ‘Then’ should be than.
        At least you have Relton correct.

        A midfield of Ablett, Swan, Pendles, Thompson, Magner all averaging 100+ is shit.
        Thanks for the great advice. I will definitely take it on board……

      • Callan you are a genuine muppet!
        Genghis has spoken….

    • @ Ridley U

      Our queries look pretty similar re potentially trading Caddy to Greene (ie see my post a few posts down)? I am considering trading either Caddy or Luke Parker to Greene?

      To me, Caddy’s draw up until the bye looks pretty good, his JS should be good, his scoring has been solid (ie 77 / then 70), his Round 13 bye is handy, he has the potential to improve, and I espect his price to go to say $350K?

      Plus, if he doesn’t turn out over the next few weeks, we can probably take his first few price rises, and then trade him down to say Neale, Couch etc – or even trade him up to say Barlow?

      However, it would also be nice to free up approx $115K this week by trading him to Greene, and hopefully get someone who is going to score just as well? I am struggling with the fact that Greene has a round 11 bye though?

      Be good to hear what Chook thinks?

      • Hey Josh

        This one is really driving me insane. I just love Caddy as a player. He is so hard at it. Can take a grab and kick a goal. Tackles like a machine. There is nothing wrong with his average either (currently mid 70’s). He will definitely get a few price rises.

        I picked him on purpose for the same reason as yourself. He was to be upgraded to a premium after round 12. If I make the trade then there is no reason why Greene can’t become a premium mid with a round 13 bye after round 10. I also have Coniglio who I was wanting to become a Couch/Treloar/Kerridge DPP in a few weeks time.

        My goal is for Magner to stay in the team all year and become mid 7 after the MBR’s.

        It is all about managing the team through the bye rounds. I really think that the quicker the trade to premium the better this year. Time will tell.

        Also really would like to hear other’s thoughts on this one

  • Deledio, Broughton, Waters, Shaw, Hargrave, Bugg, Clarke (Morris, Ellis)
    Ablett, Pendlebury, Boyd, Rockliff, Magner, Coniglio (McDonald, Shiel)
    Cox, Giles (Redden, Stephenson)
    Fyfe, Franklin, Martin, Robinson, Sidebottom, Porplyzia, Kennedy (Smith, Dickson)

    Scores of 2086 & 2120 so far. No trades as yet. Only $300 in the bank!

    As with most, the dilemma is Broughton, Shaw and whether to bring in Greene. I’ve read pretty much every single post since Sunday night and am not a whole lot closer!

    Options:

    1. Coniglio -> Greene so I can use the $40k to go Broughton -> Birchall (keep Shaw)
    2. Coniglio -> Greene so I can use the $40k to go Shaw -> Goddard/Scotland (keep Broughton)
    3. Coniglio -> Greene, keep both Shaw & Broughton
    4. No trades, keep Coniglio, Shaw & Broughton

    I’m leaning towards option 1.

    Thoughts?

  • For those contemplating Milera, here’s his stats for 2011 at Port in SANFL.

    http://www.fantasyfootyclub.com/showthread.php?11549-Terry-Milera

  • Do you boys think Gibb’s may get a lock down role against the Pies? ‘

    And also thoughts on Scotty Selwood? :)

  • @ The Southside Way – yes, the question about how many GWS players (and how many GWS MIDS) is the correct amount given their BYE in Round 11 is a difficult one?

    Like many others, I currently have 6 GWS players in Bugg (DEF), McDonald & Shiel (MIDS), Giles (RUC), D Smith & Kennedy (FWD).

    My MIDS are Ablett, Boyd, Pendles, Caddy, Parker, Magner (McDonald, Shiel), and I am considering trading either Caddy (Rd 13 bye) or Parker (Rd 12 bye) for Toby Greene this week? This would give me 3 x GWS MIDS, and a total of 7 GWS players?

    The initial plan was to upgrade Parker to a Round 11 bye premium before Round 12 (eg Rockliff / Sc Thompson), and upgrade Caddy to a Round 12 bye premium before Round 13 (eg Swan, Selwood)?

    Both Parker and Caddy should rise in price by at least $75+ each, and hopefully $125K+ if everything goes “according to plan”, therefore when added to the problem of having too many GWS / Round 11 bye players – I am thinking that I should hold off on this trade (despite Greene looking so good)?

    Be interested to get anyone else’s thoughts on this? Thanks.

  • anyone know what the breakeven on Golby is? I would like to hold on to him for a few more rounds and see if he continues to turd it up or not… For some reason the mighty Freako doesn’t have the BE’s this year…

    • I believe it’s 54.

    • BE is 54

    • ive read he has a BE of 56….. what would Bono do?

      • Bono would keep him as he loves saving all things great and small, Edge would calculate the total break evens over the season based on various scores on certain grounds, certain conditions and against certain team, Larry would say “f^%k him – he’s gone” and Adam would think Dream Team was 4 supermodels by the pool…

        • Bono would spend $20 and get assistant coach, which tells you the breakevens.

          Why waste hundreds of hours on Dreamteam and not spend $20 on assistant coach, thats seriously moronic.

          • 2 thumbs up RedVest

          • Because there’s ten other places to get the breakevens.

            Because the projected scores are a friggen joke. I am shocked that Adam Kennedy didn’t score zero in week one, and even more surprised that he didn’t score 116 in week 2. Seriously…

            Because there isn’t a thing on Assistant Coach you can’t find out in ten seconds for free.

          • I’m going to buy 6 beers with the money I saved by going to footwire.com for my BEs and not being thick enough to trust projected scores.

            cheers!
            *hits rim of bottle on teeth*

  • Excellent article Chook.

    I’ve got a bit of a dilemma guys so do I:

    A) Broughton > Carrazzo
    &
    Conigilio > Greene

    or

    B) Broughton > Marty Clarke (or similar rookie)

    Conigilio > Sam Mitchell

    Tell me what you think and why.

    • Option 2 looks really nice. No need for additional cash cows if you are going straight to a premium.

      Reasons why:
      Broughton >>> Clarke – Could nearly be $90,000 turnaround in price this week. Clarke going up combined with Broughton going down. Clarke has surprised me so far and looks to have cemented his spot.
      Coniglio >>> Mitchell – Not often you can swap a rookie directly for a super premium this early in the season. 60 points becomes closer to 120 points a week. Plus the addition of a possible captain choice. That trade is a major win.

      Both Clarke (d7/d8) and Mitchell are keepers. Clarke looks perfect to be the cover on the bench later in the year.

      Hope this helps :-)

      • Thanks Ridley

        Do you think Clarke is a lock in that backline or would I be better to look at another rookie?

        Smedts, Guthrie etc?

        • Clarke is looking as much of a lock as any other cheap back. Guthrie would have to be ahead of Smedts at the moment. There was an interview with Chris Scott just after half time and he was really rapt with Guthrie. Scott also gave Guthrie another rap “On the Couch” on Monday night.

          I would go Clarke but Guthrie wouldn’t be a bad selection either.

          • What about when McCaffer or Maxwell come back?

            Will the poor irishman be squeezed out?

  • anyone know the break even on Golby? Thinking of giving him a few more weeks as long as he isn’t bleeding too much coin.. For some reason the mighty Freako isn’t listing the BE’s this year??

    • sorry about the double post.. thanks for the answer… Golby cheese gets another week

  • What’s the news on Lachie Neale? I’ve got him currently, and deciding whether to trade him for one of the bubble rookies.
    Don’t have any major problems with my team, and got a few of the decent rookies. If I traded Neale it would most likely be for Clay Smith.

    • In the West Australian it said he had received a heavy cork in the first quarter, One percenters were important. Not sure if he played the game out

    • Silvagni is apparently training as a fwd. That could be another obstacle in Neale’s path.

  • Always a good read Chook.

    I am thinking of making one trade for the round:

    T. Dickson -> A. Kennedy

    Good trade?

  • darley to clarke?? good trade?

    • I’d be waiting till the teams were named – Darley could debut any week you’d think.

      But yeah if not good trade

  • Does anyone know what’s happening with Harry Cunningham? Played well in NAB Cup, poor R1, dropped R2?

  • GRRRRR hold the price changes for 1 more week!!!

    At this point i only have 3 mid premos with caddy and palmer. Palmers BE is not great this week so thinking of trading him to T Greene for a (double) cash boost which can also help my rucks.

    As a hawks supporter, Hale looked good in nab. i chose him in my rucks with the 3 rooks intending him to be #2 later. its not working out so with the top trade thinking of bringing in big Sandi for Hale.

    have other concerns also. happy to keep Shaw but hate possible cash lost.

    toying with the Dickson to Greene trade which then when trading Hale leaves me with 400k. 2 options for me in Ryder or Kreuzer but would love big Sandi.

    A ?? Palmer to Greene
    Hale to Sandi
    or

    C ?? dickson to Grene
    Hale to Ryder/ Kreuzer

    would love to know peoples thoughts and ideas

  • My miss: Pendles, Ablett, Boyd, Murphy, Parker, Conigs, Magner Shiel’
    How can I fix my mid up???

  • Anybody getting concerned about Stephenson falling off the radar a bit? Am pleased with Cox, MacIntosh, Giles, Reddin at the minute. MacIntosh to Sandi about rd.6 I hope.

  • Is it a waste of 2 trades to go Shaw- Birchall , then Dickson-Milera??
    Should I do none? 1? Or both?

    • Dickson to Milera is ok

    • The only reason to trade Shaw to Birchall is if you think Heath is gonna have a bad year due to injury/change of position/etc. General consensus I think is he’s just in bad form and will likely come good.

      Dickson to Milera is understandable. Dickson looks shaky about JS and scoring potential. Milera has scored well, but against pretty average teams. However if you’ve already got Kennedy, and possibly Smith, he is the next logical choice.

      • Yeah just think Birchall will outscore shaw most weeks with the way the hawks are playing and don’t wanna miss out, it’s a tough one, I’m torn

  • Stuck with the Christensen hype and its been nothing but a kick in the nuts.

    So badly want to bring in Tomahawk but know all too well how bad he can suck the big one… him or Darling for breakout value? Maybe even Corndog. Alternatives??

    • Same boat. The guy got heaps of the footy against the Hawks, but doesn’t kick, mark or tackle so his points don’t reflect his involvement.
      I’m sticking with him for now, cos I don’t have the cash for an upgrade, but he’s not looking like the breakout I was hoping for.

      • I know he can do it but cant afford to lose cash on him with other forwards ready to explode. You keeping him or trading out and for who? My geelong bias just wont let me go past Tomahawk but that makes me really nervous

  • Cheers Chook, once again a great read.

    This is gonna be essential in a few weeks as we start to look at downgrade options..Horsley, Couch, Zorko, Darley…I am looking at you boys

    • ..Stevens, Mitchell, Clifton, Kavanagh, Buntine, Kerridge, Docherty, Walsh, Neale…a few boys still out there..

  • Who would be a more consistent player over the year. Birchall, Waters or Carrazo?
    Never been much of a fan of Carazzo. If i get Waters then i have 100,000 left over for other possible upgrades.

  • @Ramrod: Neale lost his place in the line when he did his ankle against Port. Mundy and Ballantyne will be coming back in before him so he’s going to be waiting for injuries/loss of form

    • Cheers. I checked the injury list and saw a few of those guys coming back so didn’t think that was good for his future. Straight swap to Greene acually for some guaranteed cash.

  • SMEDTS IS INJURED?! According to Supercoach and Dream Team, Smedts is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury but I cant find anything on all the websites to back that up. Can anyone confirm this? If true, its really fkd up my trading plans this week.

  • Smelly Pete is thinking a little outside the square here.

    Broughton –> Bugg
    Coniglio –> Bartel

    Bugg would be D7/8/9 (not a permanent on-fielder, depending on circumstances) while of course Bartel would be there as my M5, and Magner completing the midfield (for now) as M6.

    Thoughts please?

  • Any clues when Darley will debut for GWS? Have him sitting on the pine expecting it would happen very early in the season.

    • Same! I have him and DOCHERTY on the pine in the back line and they both are scoring donuts. Need them playing soon!

  • Should i get greene in for shiel out???

    callinan is in and i want him out, who’s the best option?

    enright scoring badly, do i consider trading him out??

    and is ryder worth getting in, for mummy out??

    Reply please :)

    • 1. NO!!!! Don’t trade dylan shiel

      2. If you would like to trade callinan, best option would be porps or a rookie like a Kennedy, Milera or Devon smith. Even Rhys Stanley if you like.

      3. Give Corey one more game and if he scores another sub 70 trade him for either Lids, BJ, Carrazzo, birchall or suckling.

      4. Ryder may be inconsistent but playing against gold coast this week helps. But mummy is apparently on track to play this week, but watch when the teams are listed.

      They are my opinions

  • Who should i put as no.2 ruck spot

    Redden or Giles?

    • Tough call Redden v the Mummy and Giles v Cox/Nat!!! wasn’t Giles named at FF??
      Maybe limited ruck time if that being the case and surely the ball won’t be in their forward line often?

  • Watson doing well with a 124avg and only 492k saved me 50k on big gun will he drop though?

    • He may do his Hammy again as he did twice last year!!! Once you have crook Hammy’s you seem to have them for ever..

  • This by far is the best site for BE’s price rises SC and DT .. and price drops.. plenty of search options by Team,price, multi pos , inj etc etc!!!

    http://tooserious.net/stats.php?sort=salary_movement_total&desc=desc