Punching above their weight – Round 2

This new weekly article will look at which players are playing better than their average. Those that are outperforming their price, those that are punching above their weight.

As the banner suggests, Shaun Hampson is the perfect example of somebody punching above their weight, currently grinding the sublime Megan Gale…clearly punching above his weight.

From a DT perspective, I look at anyone that is averaging +20 over their priced average.

Let’s take Rory Sloane for example. Priced @$429k (divide this by $5k, generally accepted rule for determining price based on LY ave) therefore he is priced at around 86 (429/5) and his current ave115. So is currently at +29 and clearly punching well above his weight.

I am not looking at anyone under 200k as this is Chook’s domain and he knows it better than anyone.

So based on the first 2 rounds and before the all important round 3 which guys are currently punching as heavyweights? and who is the first winner of the inaugural Shaun Hampson Medal?

Defenders

Let’s start with defenders, surely the area that is causing most pain for coaches.

1. Shannon Hurn +41 , priced @ 69, ave 110. Obviously his 140 against Magner, I mean Melbourne has him inflated, but with a BE of 5, a 31k price rise and a game against GWS on the way, the 5% of coaches that currently own him wont be complaining, and am sure a few more will jump on. Not for me though, he will soon get tagged and bring his average back to around the 65 we are used to.

2. Ryan Hargrave +40, priced @ 46, ave 86. Golden haired boy at the moment and with good reason, looks the goods. BE -20 and nearly 40k price rise means get aboard the Hargrave train this week if you don’t already have him.

3. Jarryn Geary +36, priced @ 42, ave 78. Looks to have a spot in the Saints best 22 and has certainly surprised me. BE -18 and around 32k price rise. Not the worst option.

Other notables in defence are:

  • Alex Rance +33, priced @ 71, ave 104
  • Courtenay Dempsey +30, priced @ 49, ave 79
  • Alex Johnson +33, priced @ 55, ave 88

Midfielders

Who are the midfielders that are punching it out for the Sean Hampson Medal

1. Brad Ebert (Runner up for the SHM) +43, priced @ 62, ave 105. The former eagle has hit the ground running at Alberton and put some impressive numbers on the board. BE -10 and $35k price rise coming, can he keep it up?

2. Lewis Jetta +41, priced @ 44, ave 85. Little Lewis certainly punching well above his featherweight guns. BE -28 and $32k coming up, not sure that many will jump on board though.

3. Chris Masten +40, priced @55, ave 95. Yep Bloody Chris Masten, the early season tease, owner of the worst salad in the AFL. you get the idea, is playing very well and GWS this week means that he will more than likely go 100+. Current BE -9 and $40k price rise coming up. The question remains, who has the aggots to pick him? Not I.

Other notables who are currently smoking

  • Liam Anthony +31, priced @ 75, ave 106
  • Jack Stevens +30, priced @ 79, ave 109
  • Scott Selwood +29, priced @ 86, ave 115
  • Rory Sloane +29, priced @ 86, ave 115
  • Josh Kennedy +27, priced @ 86, ave 113

I really like the bottom 3 and think that they could be very good uniques this year. Selwood is no longer a run with player, Sloane, well everybody knows I love Sloane Ranger and Kennedy in particular, he will ton up every time they play at the SCG as loves it in close. It is worth noting that all of the 5 above have played either GWS, Suns or Demons, so that needs to be taken into account.

Rucks

So much debate about the right ruck strategy this year, Giles is certainly smashing it and justifying the 1/3 ruck set up. There are only 2 big guys that are notably punching above their weight (apart from Hampson…bastard)

1. Paddy Ryder +41, priced @79, ave 120. I talked so many people out of Ryder this year…oops! Can he keep up the momentum? Against Gold Coast this week, he should definitely keep up the momentum. Is he the bargain ruck of the year?

2. Matty Kreuzer +30, priced @ 65, ave 95. Plays like a tall midfielder and is a gun..(slight Carlton bias being shown ;)) stemmed not to do much last week and still racked up 90 odd.

Forwards

Off to the forward line, where we find the inaugural winner of the Shaun Hampson Medal…drum roll please….

1. Chad Cornes (yep..who’d a thunk it) +48, priced @ 66, ave 114. WOW, big Chad, is he turning back the clock to when he was fantasy relevant? Given the role he is playing at GWS, he may just be the big surprise packet this year, they use him a lot and he knows how to find the pill. Owned by 2.45% of coaches (did they know something?) BE of -13 and $45k price rise coming up…can we really be talking about him?
Big Congrats Chad…wear the Medal with pride.

2. Tom Hawkins +40, priced @ 60, ave 100. The man with the eyes too close together has shown a bit in the first 2 games. Can he live up to the potential? May come back to earth this week as only averages 48 against North.

3. Tex Walker +37, priced @59, ave 96. The second best mullet in the AFL is certainly playing well at the moment. Crows favorable draw make him not the worst pick.

Other notables up front:

  • Jack Darling +34, priced @ 66, ave 100.
  • Brendan Whitecross +31, priced @ 75, ave 106.
  • Jason Porplyzia +30, priced at 40, ave 70.

So there you have it, the current crop that are punching well above their weight. Over the next few weeks we will see some major changes to the list as some of these come back to the pack through playing tougher teams.

Big congrats to Chad Cornes for being the first Hampson of the season! I wonder if Hampson can win the Hampson…doubt it, other things on his mind me thinks ;)

Next weeks edition may be a bit thinner with junior Rainman coming into the world this coming Friday, just in time to watch the Blues smash the Pies!

As always welcome any comments and follow me in the twitter sphere @RainmanDT and remember stats can be your friend.

197 Comments

  • hey boys my team looks like this:

    7k in the bank
    scotland, delidio, shaw, broughton, hargrave, m.clarke, bugg (ellis, morris)
    pendles, boyd, ablett, selwood, coniglio, magner (shiel, mcdonald)
    mumford, giles (redden, big O)
    martin, buddy, fyfe, goodes, sidebottom, a.kennedy, d.smith (dickson, hall)

    which option would you do?
    1) broughton > waters and dickson > milera
    2) mumford > kruezer, dickson > milera
    3) shaw > birchall, broughton > waters
    4) scotland > goddard, dickson > milera

  • Just traded dickson out greene in via the DPP dustin martin
    Also golby to marty clarke
    rate each trade out of 10 for me

  • Great stuff Rainman.

    Apart from Porps, my mid-pricers are punching, only slightly above their weight, (they’re wearing those inflatable boxing gloves for kids- I had a pair of them when the original Rocky hit the big screen.)

    Hindsight is a wonderful thing…..why on earth did I pick JRoo….33pts….pffft, HE BETTER punch out a big ton this week vs Demons.

    Best wishes for you & your family with bubb #5…..massive effort!
    You’re 1 bubb away from having to hire an, “Alice,” (Ann. B. Davis.) haha

    • Thanks Eeep… Lol good old Alice… Hopefully the fashion at our house is slightly better than the Brady’s

  • Great article mate! Definitely loving the Waters in West Coast at the moment. My dilemma is to trade out Broughton to Waters and Grimes to Hargrave or Dickson to Milera. Or let Broughton fight for his life this week against a quite terrible Brisbane outfit (was at the game on Thursday) and sideways Grimes to Waters and not worry about Milera’s good pay rise. Thoughts?

    • I think hang on to Broughts. Grimes to Waters..yeah think that is a good fix up trade!

  • Has anyone got the Balls to bring in Tom Hawkins?

    Temptation is sitting there, with $95k in my bank and Callinan having P’d me off with his average score. Also have Dangerfield and Porps in my forwardline so it’s looking quite Crow overkill atm…

  • I for one am punching above my weight.

    I’m ranked 59th, but am gutted I’m not higher.

    I buggered up the loophole by picking a non playing Brisbane bloke, Harvey as Captain. I was then stuck with Murph’s 115, whilst not bad, I intended as usual, to pick Gaz, robbing my of quite a few points.

    Lesson learnt.

    I’m filthy on it.

  • i need some help, so should i trade goldby to cornes and parker to greene or d.smith to cornes and broughton to geary?????

    • 1st problem, Golby is a back, The Chad is a forward. Broughts is hard to predict with Freos ‘rotating midfield’, plus, Lyon knows how good he is in a lockdown role, which was mentioned in the infamous ‘broughton spending more time in the midfield article’ but everyone seemed to have overlooked that little paragraph about how good his lockdown ability is. With Mundy and Barlow and to a lesser extent, Neale coming in soon, I wouldnt like to play the waiting game with Broughts getting midfield time..IMO

      • sorry i didnt say i moved smedts to back (dpp) but thanks, im really wanting to get rid of broughton as you say and im not confident with parker eh like the look of cornes this year but so thinking downgrading broughton then use the cash on cornes an deal with parker atm

  • Dempsey my special for punching above weight in a tough year for cheap/mid backs

    Dumping Broughts for Waters & (Gulp) Martin for Cornes, then week after Butcher to Cloke and $200k or so to play with after that.

    Pretty happy with rest of team so only really 1 fix up and Martin is purely a $ maker.

    Thinking may downgrade Jacobs (already have Sandi) and go 1/3 but there is a reason I went 2/2 in the first place and trying to remember what that is. Think it was cause Adel had such a good fixture to start, always 2nd guessing my strategy

    • It was pointed out above that cause I have Smedts as a FOR could do the multi pos trade and do

      Broughts > Cornes via Smedts moved to DEF?

      Could kill 2 birds with 1 stone here? Thoughts?

      • yep looks the goods, thats what im going to be doing, what are you going to do with your 2nd trade though?

  • Awesome article rainman, great topic. Are u tempted by any of the players mentioned? I havent made a trade yet but Im thinking Shaw to Waters but Im not…sure about Shaws role being temporary…I was going to go Shaw to Goddard but I wont make any money for the looming Barlow trade in! As tempting as Goddard and the extra $$ Ill get are, I may just leave it for now, keep my trades and trust Shaw will come good

    • Cheers Skoop, Hargrave will come in for Golby. Am actually tempted by the Chad..can’t believe I am typing that, but I think he can give 85-95 at least, the only worry is how much of the year he will play.

      Really like Kennedy from the Swans too, but will be able to pick up Barlow for squat soon and think he will be 5th mid then 6th comes in after byes.

      • Yeah Chad has come back from the DT Graveyard! So tempting but I heard he has a dodgy knee and thats all I needed to hear to steer me away from him. But if he keeps those numbers up, he’ll be worth close to 450k by round 5. If I didnt load up on 6 premo mid/fwds this year, I could squeeze him in but as it is, my last spot is reserved for Franklin. Good luck this week Rainman!

  • i’m still shocked at the amount of people that picked broughton, picking him for mid time with mundy barlow and co to come back. was burn’t last yr and realised he was way to inconsistent

  • What are your thoughts on Dangerfied to Ebert or McCarthy??
    Sideways I know but JS is safe at Port and both will spend all their time in the midfield

  • How does this sound,

    Broughton to hargrave this week

    Then next week coniglio to Barlow (assuming Coniglio gets up and Barlow goes down)

    • where are my maners great article mate :)

      p.s. has anybody else seen Magner projected price increase, 104 500$$$$$$

    • Hey mate, contemplated the Conigs to Barlow trade next week, but just bear in mind it will be another 2 weeks that he carries his sub affected scores in his 3 week rolling average (assuming he is not vested again this week). Therefore higher BE

      So whilst I would love to bring Barlow in ASAP, exercising a bit of patience for another few weeks will get him to you a bit cheaper and who is to say that Conigs won’t pull out a couple of 80s.

      • thanks mate, might see how he goes this week, if he gets 120 (playing lions he easily could) next week his BE might only be around 115 mark. All depend how he goes this week :)

  • not gunna jump on the greene-train anymore joseph?

  • Is anyone considering trading out existing premium ruck (in this case Mummy) to Kreuzer? If Kreuzer sustains form of 90-95avg then looking at approx $125k saving. Admittedly the Blues haven’t faced formidable opposition yet…..

  • Need to offload Golby and already have Hargrave. Is it better to go Lake or Bugg?

  • i am very tempted to bring in Scotty Selwood..

    • Feeling a bit of a man crush coming on for Scotty.

      Him and his brother Joel can run my Mids

  • Congrats on the little one due to arrive rainman! May he be wrapped in a blues scarf and beanie and screaming obscenities at daisy, dudak, swan and co. before he hits 2!
    Speaking of arrivals… Friday will mark the day the blues officially ARRIVE after many years wandering the desert. On Friday all the knobs with their decade old rehearsed putdowns will be finally silenced, as will the 50,000 pies fans at the G.
    Called it months ago… told you to get on the blues at 10-1 for the flag, told you round 3, collingwood will go down and a new genuine contender will step up. Can’t wait for Friday! Pies have got the wobbles and blues are playing ruthless footy. Go blues!!!

    • You have played Brisbane and Richmond…… Pfffffftt……….On Friday you will finally play some one who will finish in the top 4, which, BTW you won’t make.
      Make sure you wear rubber soled shoes while you watch the game on Friday ” Drools”……….or you will slip over in your tears……….

    • You’ve put that out there for everyone to see, you better hope the Blues can back that up now! haha.

    • HAHAHA. Dools mate I hate Collingwood but you’ve played Richmond and Brisbane…. Not exactly quality opposition there. Collingwood are another level above the blues at the moment.
      Just settle down….

      • blues won’t make the 4? not in the same class as collingwood? Like I’ve said all along… wait till Friday and you will be silenced. Its not me digging myself into a hole with my words, its you guys :) Carlton won’t just win, they’ll win comfortably. Eat that!

    • Cheers dools

  • Whats everyones thoughts on Rance? Doesnt seem to be getting any mention at all? Also Hurn?

    Still deciding where i go with Broughts.. or is a move of smedts/ cornes thats been thrown around a bit more entertaining?

    • Rance and Hurn are ‘One-hit wonders’.

    • I tell you one definate about rance, he won’t be able to sustain it. If he slips marginally YOU BEAUT! but theres always the possibility he’ll go back to averaging 70ish. Gutsy move trading him in despite his incredible start, but then again could turn out to be a masterstroke that gives you a massive edge. Not for me.

  • Great write up as usual Rainman, thanks for the effort you put in.
    As for smashing the Pies…….well…….the law of averages says you are due BUT, even with the SECOND best midfield in the comp I don’t think the Blue Baggers will get the chocolates.
    And finally all the best for the new arrival

    • Cheers mayhem. Time will tell. I don’t wish the worst on the pies…I sincerely hope that Pendles, sidebum and shaw have spectacular games ;)

  • Tell me if im making the wrong decision:

    I take out Broughton for Geary/Johnson (not sure which one yet) and then i’ll trade out Neale from my Mid bench and then substitute him for fyfe (currently in my Fwd) and fill the space in fwd with Chad cornes.

    So i’ll basically have Geary?Johnson in Defence, Fyfe in Mid and Cornes in Fwd.
    :)

  • Lake is goin to get a higher score but Bugg is cheap it depends.

    If u want the player on Bench go Bugg if u want him in ur starting 22 pick Lake. Although be wary of the Byes you’ll have a few donuts in Defence.

  • No one has mention Alex Johnson from Sydney, averaging 93 off the half back flank, the guy was playing like a midfielder when I watched the game, any thoughts?

  • I went with Mcintosh. I reckon hes gonna be a darkhorse premo ruckman like goldstein was in 2011. He’ll pull out a lot more 100+ scores despite sharing the ruck duty with goldstein. They’re both able to play forward as well as ruck even though theyre not dpp in dt.

    • His round 1 score was more of an indication of his true value I think. He played GWS last week and he won’t be seeing many more scores as high as that one.

      He’ll make you some money but the output over the year probably won’t be much different to Giles and he’ll probably be a good 10-20 points below the top 5 rucks on average.

  • Seriously considering jumping on masten/ josh kennedy for palmer, the broughton to waters trade has left me with plenty of cash.

  • anyone think im mad to trade Gibbs out for J Kennedy? save the 100k and pick up another 30k next week?

    • I’m thinking of doing the same with S.Selwood/Kennedy

    • Yep……Madness!!

      • Whoaaah nelly! Its only been 2 rounds! Reminds me of around this time last year when I jumped on dawes after an awesome start, looked headed for a breakout year… the minute I got him in struggled to crack 80 for the rest of the year until I finally traded his useless ass out. Like the comment I made above re rance, will kennedy sustain these scores?? Not for shit! Only question you’ve gotta ask yourself is how far he’ll fall and whether that justifies his selection.