Geelong Cats: AFL Dream Team Picks

This series of ‘club preview’ posts are written by DT TALK regular contributors choosing their 5 players they have on their watchlist from the respective club. These aren’t who we think will be the top 5 highest scoring players… and are not necessarily in order. They are just our opinions of the 5 players who we have on our watchlist heading into the 2012 season.

Amanda’s five from the Cats

I know most of you wouldn’t dare take DT advice from your missus, but i’d like to think I know what I’m on about.

1. Joel Selwood (MID),  $540,600

Not only is Selwood the new Geelong captain, but this year he could well be the go to captain for many DT coaches. Pushing an average of almost 110 last year, Selwood could push that closer to 120 this year and have us asking the question “Ablett, Swan or Selwood?” when it comes to our captain selection each week. At 23yrs old he can only improve from his already impressive standing in the competition. He is worth every single cent.  Lock.

2. Joel Corey (MID),  $456,900

I know we are all spoilt for choice when it comes to quality midfielders, but take the time to really consider Corey. Yes he’s just turned 30, but he is by no means over and done with. While his average of 92.4 last year wasn’t earth shattering, he has the potential to push out those 100+ scores this year.  If you want consistency well here it is. Very fairly priced for that you’ll get out of him.

3. Orren Stephenson (RUC) $98,700

It should come as no surprise that Big O is in my top 5 cats to watch. Long gone are the days of your 4th ruck being a dummy pick; with the byes and current trends in resting players you simply cannot afford to waste any of your 30 selections. If you’re going with the 1-3 ruck structure this year, Orren must be in there. Geelong’s ruck stocks are severely limited until atleast midyear, when Simpson and Vardy will come off the injury list. If Vardy returns at all, he’ll be wrapped in cotton wool for ages and Simpson is still a bit of an unknown quantity.  If the big O proves his worth early on, he’ll be in all year. A must have.

4. Simon Hogan (MID) $133,600

Hogan looms as the surprise packet of the cats this year. Got a sniff of senior action last year and judging by his impressive showing during the NAB cup he’s sure to get more of a look in this year. Granted we don’t know much about him yet, but at $133,600 he could be an absolute steal. There are a lot of spots up for grabs at Geelong this year and Hogan looks like snaring one of them. As Freako stated in his newsletter last week, Hogan looks like the perfect candidate to take over Cameron Ling’s tagging role.  Look for him to average 60+.

5. Allen Christensen (FWD/MID) $338,800

The first thing that jumps out at me about Christensen is his DPP status. We all know how handy this can be! Christensen is a gun. He had an amazing debut season last year, with a tidy average of 68.5. He is an excitement machine and I’m tipping him to become the next Stevie J. I believe his average will increase substantially this year and with his freakish ability around goal, don’t be surprised to see him smash out a few 100’s here and there.

OTHERS ON THE WATCHLIST: Corey Enright (DEF $454,600) just keeps on keeping on. Not as obvious a selection as Heath Shaw or Brendon Goddard, but he still has the goods and is a worthy selection. Smedts (DEF/FWD $104,200) and Horlin-Smith (FWD $104,200) are two young guys who have got the DT world talking with their NAB cup performances. No doubting the skill of these two, it’s just their job security I’d be wary of. Remember that Geelong haven’t played more than 12 of their premiership team from last year in any of the NAB cup games so far. Cameron Guthrie (DEF $150,400) is another name being thrown about and could be a really cheap 7th member of your backline, or at the very least a decent cash cow.

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115 Comments

  • 1st?

  • Nice work Amanada. No Cats for me at this stage, though Selwood might sneak in.

  • Good job Amanda however my opinion is Big O is off the radar completely – a paltry 25 pts against Richmond and got dominated by mullet man who is nowhere near elite (Maric scored 89 DT pt’s). How would he go against the games elite big men?

    If people continue with this 1 premo ruck 3 rook combo they better get it right…otherwise a world of pain is just around the corner.

    • Starting to have a very similar opinion Brap.. Trying very hard to get McEvoy/Mumford into my side for Orren but it’s tough, my forward line was so solid :( Trying to split Stevie J and Christensen for their upsides is messing with my head.

      • I’d love to start with Stevie set for a blinder TY, if he stays fit 115 average coming right up….

    • I know it’s all we have but NAB scores can’t be the and end all. Despite his showing against the tigers (the whole side performed pretty poorly) I still believe he’s worthy of that 4th ruck spot

    • I think people who are going 1 premium 3 rookie tucks are goin to regret it after a few rounds.

      • Lucky your finger didn’t go down one row and slightly to the left…….

      • Why? Between Redden Giles and O there is plenty of reason to go 1 Premo 3 rooks. I think there will be a few set and forget guys getting very worried if Giles and Redden start smashing out some 80’s, and we all have an extra 300k to play with.

        • The problem with the 1 premo / 3 rook ruck combo is the lack of DPP links to the fwd line IMO.
          Last year we had Drew Petrie / Tippett / Lobbe / Hale to play around with which added an extra layer of insurance but with the lack of DPP rucks this year if the rooks go south you’re left with a pretty big hole to fill.
          I’m going set & forget.

          • Sam Rowe is out, but if you want DPP links take a look at Pattison. Downgrade Giles to him at round 10, grab the 150-200k, upgrade Stephenson/ swap Pattison with Rowe and upgrade him. Have a go at it if you’re not sure, after all what’s liife without risk?

          • whoops, put Rowe in forwards too as 9th forward.

    • i’m hearin ya brap!. 1 and 3 sounded good a month ago ( the extra couple 100k was better). but i’m going with my set and forget ruck combo and dropping my 5th forward to a rook.

  • Selwood absolute lock, will only improve
    Had Christensen all pre season but has gone out of favour
    Obviously the big o is on the ruck bench, anyone else really ill be looking at mid year for upgrades etc

    • Did you consider Billy Longer? There’s a good chance he’ll be playing from round 1

  • No Stevie J?? What is this.

    • Prob thinking he’s an upgrade target. His 66pts when subbed on was blinding- oh that kicking 0.4 too!!

      • Re Stevies 0.4:
        I’m a Cats freak Brapp and all I can say is that everyone will have to get used to shithouse games and scoring accuracy down at skilled this year.
        Now that grandstand has been pulled down it is going to be brutally tough to score down that end. Especially when the wind really picks up and it buckets down with rain as it often does down there.
        aahh Etihad…come to Poppa…

        • out of country, so good to know…not sure how to apply this new found knowledge…but thanks PKS

      • I have 4 of the boys in my team,,, mainly because I support them and am more inclined to give them a chance

      • Could easily have been 4 straight, guy is a freak.

  • No doubt Jelwood is a gun but there are others.

    Hogan & Guthrie on radar.

    Christensen wasn’t much of an “excitement machine” last week and is very awkwardly priced against rivals that have been performing pre-season. He could be a gun but you need a lot of faith.

    The Big O has been just that in scoring. He may have JS but i don’t see him knocking out big scores…better options IMO and no way a “must have” with Giles and Redden in the same space.

    • Big O will get better as he adjusts to the pace and learns where to position himself in their structures. More possies will come

      • But when PKS? could take him half a dozen games then he starts spitting out 60’s lol

        • Hahaha so demanding Brapp! Jeesh!
          He is good for 60 from the get-go in my opinion.
          From about round 5 or 6 onwards, I reckon he will average around 70, as he picks up a few more link up possies through the middle.
          The Cats are pretty astute with their list management, and obviously believe he can be a solid contributor, rather than needing to poach another ruck from someone else.
          Can we please have Mummy back Syd-a-ney?

    • Give Christensen a little more credit than that one game last weekend. I didn’t write this based on how well each guy performed in the NAB cup.

      He’s by no means a lock. But I think he has huge potential.. maybe I’m wrong!

      • I guess i was just a little disappointed because i did have him in my tentative team based on expectations. As a result of missing all games bar one and playing underwhelmingly in that, we don’t have a lot to go on. I think i’ll wait until after round 2 to look at him as an upgrade/downgrade option if injuries.

        Thanks for the write up BTW.

      • Thanks for the intel Amanda, dont listen to the dipsticks that frequent this great site, i dont see them doing the writeups.

      • Christensen looked really slow and underdone. I had him in my team a couple of weeks ago but after watching his first NAB hit out I just totally lost confidence in him.

        Now he will only be a possible upgrade target if he actually gets going during the season.

        Had extra cash in the kitty so he became Goodes and I think I feel much better having him as my F3 and Martin as F4.

        • +1
          totally agree. Christensen has done nothing all pre season. I know that pre season can be misleading at times. At that arkward price, I have lost confidence. It may well be the case that he will be the sub expert again this year as well – – I am going to wait a little while before I commit to him.
          Selwood and the Big O are locks though.

          • He has played 1 game coming back from a minor injury. By all means don’t pick him unique Christo will suit me fine.

      • i went and had a closer look at Christ against Richmond and he was actually everywhere in the 1st and last quarters. He had a couple of frees against him in the first, which combined with the Cats (unusually) terrible decision making & disposal, meant he didn’t get reward for effort.

        He warrants a little more thought before i dump him.

        That’s why i love this forum (and the contributors)…makes you think just a little more.

  • nice work Amanda. just a couple of questions:
    – why has christensen been so quiet this summer? until the nab cup, i had him penciled into my fwd line.
    – who do you think will play most games out of smedts and guthrie? or should i start with both knowing that 1 should play every week.

  • AC better show something last round of NAB.

    and i honestly am suprised we don’t have chappy in the top 5??!! he could go 110+ this season, yea i would ahve swapped corey for chappy in that list! corey has a degenerative knee condition right? chappy just had a poor preseaon last year.

    stevie J is an upgrade imo as well

  • Nice write up Amanda.

    I would personally consider all of Chapman, Bartel, Stevie J, Enright, Guthrie and Smedts better DT candidates than Joel Corey however.

    At the moment I am only starting with Chapman and Guthrie, can’t quite fit Selwood into my 3 premo midfield and Redden has shown more than Stephenson so far for mine.

  • No Stevei J – he should be the first picked in most sides IMO. He will win you games alone with his high ceiling.

    Big O – no thanks, Redden has well and truly overtaken him.

    Doubt Hogan will live up to his NAB scores with bartel, selwood, corey, chapman etc all playing throught he midfield

    Stevie J only for me from the Cats – expect the Cats to slip a bit this year.

  • Well written Amanda

    I currently have no Cats – which is a bit sad. I do have Ablett, does that count?

  • A couple of upgrade targets for me in Jelwood and Stevie J/Chappy (whoever is travelling better)

    Guthrie currently in as D7, like what i have seen so far and hoping the WOJO injury may open the door for him…Amanda/PKS… any inside knowledge on his place in their best 22?

    • Amanda may know more about this than me mate.

      Guthrie, Taylor Hunt, Smedts are all worthy of consideration, but the problem is job security.
      The way I see it (Amanda please help me out if you can!) is that these 3 guys are all fighting for the 21st and 22nd (sub) spots on the any given week.

      Taylor Hunt will probably play in the starting 21 most often of the 3, as he has been in the system longer and has a mature physique.
      That leaves too much risk for mine in Smedts and Guthrie copping the green vest on a regular basis.

      I have thought long and hard about this whole issue – coz the reward for getting it right and the penalty for getting it wrong will be so big, but at the moment, I have lumped them all in the too-hard basket!

      Sorry I couldn’t be more definitive.

      • ok… makes sense. Not the answer i wanted though ;) Thanks Big Guy

        • That all being said however, Guthrie and Smedts are CRUCIAL to my 30 rook setup! I will be distraught if I can’t start with them! ;)

      • I agree about Hunt vs Guthrie and Smedts. He has more experience and definitely more likely to line up than the other 2. I don’t think Hunt’s JS is an issue. Unless he plays some shockers, he should be lining up most weeks. He got a considerable amount of game time last year and that was before the mass retirements. I think he is safe.

        It’s hard to say with Guthrie Smedts, and I’ll put hogan in there aswell. There isnt room for all of them. I believe Hogan will be given more chances, but the other 2 will see senior action this year aswell.

        It’s a guessing game! The NAB can only tell us do much.

        • I missed Taylor Hunt’s 90 against the Suns.

          His scoring last year didn’t look great…has something changed?

  • No word on Stevie J? I’ve currently got him in my team as I have a bit of a bromance with him, and he seems to be quite a unique pick this year? Any thoughts on him?

  • To all those asking why there’s no Stevie J, Chappy etc… Don’t get me wrong I LOVE these guys. But the idea wasn’t to give you who are going to be the top 5 scorers for Geelong. It’s just a few guys who I’ve got a particular interest in and who I think are worth some degree of consideration.

    Itd be boring if I just went selwood Stevie j Chappy Bartel and Enright.

  • I’ve had Selwood locked in for a while. Had Enright and Big O at one stage, but they’ve been given the boot.

    On a side note, does anyone have the link to the dream team blog someone posted about in an earlier article? I can’t seem to find it now.

  • I think Stevie J is a classic example of an overpriced player. If you look at his stats from the last 5 years they are:

    2007 17 games @ 95
    2008 22 @ 92
    2009 16 @ 99
    2010 19 @ 95
    2011 20 @ 107

    So he has been a consistent gun forward, but last year is a bit of an outlier. Was there a significant role change or improvement in his game last year that would explain this?

    I don’t think so. I think you can put his increase down largely to randomness. He played well, but to me it looks like you are paying 107 for a player that will likely average 95-100. However, if you see natural improvement in StevieJ at 45 (or however old he is) than go for it.

    • He played up the ground more.

      • +1 – Stevie J played up the ground a lot more last year. Started in the centre square quite a bit. I reckon he will be among the top couple again in the forwards. He will always have one or 2 big days out throughout the year. Just that type of player.

    • Those 2 scores of 171 vs G.C & MFC witches hats, & the other 146 vs GC make him overpeiced for sure- just my opinion ofcourse!

      • I agree. That Melbourne game put up some of the biggest DT anomalies of the year. Stevie J and Selwood both inflated their averages and Christensen scored 76 after being subbed on in Q3. People are happy to take out injury or sub-affected scores from averages, but rarely take out the really high scores that may be just as unlikely to reoccur.

        • That entire match was a disgrace, but it is the game where Christensen really opened my eyes to his potential. Pity he’s had a pretty average pre-season, otherwise he’d be locked into my team.

    • Agreed. I think he is a gun fwd, but i can’t see him sustaining that scoring level. I’ll wait and possibly acquire as an upgrade down the line. I am positive his price won’t increase.

    • worth every cent.

      his role changed significantly last year with ablett gone.

      played more time in midfield and will do so again this year.

      those leaving him out will be the ones spewing when he pumps out his big scores and single handedly delivers you a league game loss.

      good luck though.

  • Good stuff Amanda.
    I’ve got a funny feeling about Taylor Hunt this year, as a mid-price smokie!?!
    Can see him slotting into Ling’s role better than Hogan!??
    No expert, but reckon he will be in Cats best 21, befrore Hoges.

    • Yeah I would have to agree with you there. Hunt is a proven defensive player for the Cats last year. Hogan has been playing in the midfield this NAB cup but not as a tagger (Ling’s apprentice). Just not sure what way Scott will go…

      1. Taylor Hunt to play as a defensive midfielder, Smedts/Guthrie to take Milburns BP/HBF position
      2. Taylor Hunt slips into Milburns vaccated position and Hogan takes on the defensive midfield role. Therefor Smedts/Guthrie miss out….

      Thoughts?

    • I’d be reluctant to go near Hogan for the same reasons eep.

  • Hogan’s kicking reminiscent of Luke Ball three years ago. Not up to Geelong (or AFL) standard.

  • Joel Corey might as well be in the Bermuda Triangle, he is on absolutely no-one’s radar AFAIK! I see a bit more upside to Dangerfield than Christenson at around the same price-point.

    Thanks for the article Amanda.

    – Smelly Pete –

  • Would love to have Selwood in my midfield but currently have Ablett, Boyd, Thomas as my 3 premium mids this year… Thinking Boyd > Selwood would be a worthless sideways move.

  • Great write up Amanda. What are your thoughts on Chappy??
    Ive seen he’s had a ripper pre season and obviously he’s an absolute gun!
    Reckon he can get back to his scores of 2009/2010 and average?
    I’m condering him quite strongly at the moment…

    • Chappy is the man. As the saying goes at my house “we love an angry Chappy!”. He doesn’t have the capacity to play a bad game. He came out early on in the year saying that he didn’t think he did his best last year and that he was carried by his team mates.

      I found that just unbelievable… He was a gun all year! But if that means we can expect more from him this year you better find a spot for him asap.

    • Allen Christensen being groomed for the Chapman role. Might take a lot of midfield time away from him.

  • Hoping Big ‘O’ learns his role and gets his hands on the ball because I made the huge decision this morning to change my ruck to 1 & 3!!

    Jacobs, Giles, Redden, Stephensen (after hearing about Bailey, Pattinson could be a go)

    • Pattinson in the West Indies. Last Hawthorn fly-in player was Peter Hudson. Pattison might be a better proposition.

      • pattison played for the tigers a few years ago.. he’s a waste of DT space!! look elsewhere..

        • mc cauley would probably be first in line at the haws for the ruck gig – did ok at brissy

        • Pattison, three clubs, any more and he might be looking for a caddy (no, not the GCS one).

    • Pattison will not NOT get a game at Hawthorn.

      Hale will play as no 1 ruck, and Roughy pushing for round 1 and McCauley all ahead of him

  • w00p! freakos in the mail box… time to read!

  • Why are people even looking at the big O’s scores? As a bench ruck all he has to do is play, and play he will.

  • “Most of the coaches out there probably won’t take advice from a girl…”

    Really? it’s 2012, There are still sexist people out there sure, but most of us?

    Just thought that comment sounded a bit off.

    I know the intention was so we would respect Amanda’s opinion, which is a good intention, but I believe most of us would respect her without needing to be reminded

  • great write up DT Queen Moo.

    I Agree with Jelwood, Christensen and Big O.. Corey has made my watchlist this week after his excellent performance.

    Christensen is a gun and his DPP status is enticing. I will be watching very closely and as he is currently in my team some others need to do better.

    Faves for the flag as well? I reckon so!

  • Taylor Hunt?

  • Great work Amanda. Refreshing viewpoint. Nice one

  • Great read Amanda. I really enjoyed the fact that you went a little outside the box with the 5 players that you chose. It would have been very easy to just swap out Orren and Christensen after the NAB Cup but you stuck to your guns and backed them in. Keep up the good work

    Cheers again, very much appreciated :-)

  • SELWOOD ALL THE WAY!!!!

    Great write up Amanda :)

  • Nice read Amanda! Prepared to give AC another week. Looked a bit on the tentative side in NAB R3.

    What chance Steve Motlop sneaking into the small forward role? Has showed a bit during the NAB rounds.

    Cheers!!

  • I seem to be dumping Cats for somne reason….

    Selwood Locked.

    but…
    Orren went out for Redden.
    Christianson out for Ballntyne.
    Enright out for Birchall.
    And Bartel who served me well in past years frustrated me abit last season so he didnt get looked at this year. His game acouple of weeks ago is what he can do tho! i hope he DOESNT bring that every week!

  • Selwood for me. Christensen, Hogan and Big F (O) almost made it

  • Not sure if anyone is still reading this… But thoughts on Bartel? At 450k he seems seriously undervalued to me… But I didn’t see season 2011, did he have a role change with gablett missing?