Sub Affected Bargains?

At the start of 2011, we saw the introduction of the substitute vest. Though this rule came with a few positives, such as more TOG for players. The constant worrying about if your players would be facing a vest themselves, was nothing but stressful upon dream team coaches.

Along with the substitute vest came a new breed of AFL players. These players were to become the substitute “pin up boys” for their clubs, which would see their scoring out-put decrease; along with their relevance in dream team circles.But is all hope for these players to become a worthy dream team selection lost? I have looked back over 2011 at some dream team relevant players,whose averages have been hit heaviest due to the sub vest.

The Experienced

Alan Didak$363,700

AVG: 73
Sub Effected Games: 4
Sub Scores: 30, 26, 51, 47
Not including sub scores AVG: 84
Highest: 118 Lowest: 60

Alan Didak had an interrupted Pre-Season leading into 2011, which saw him unable to perform his shimmy at any point of the season, due to a year of underachieving. Didak was a substitute on 4 occasions for the Magpies, in a bid to monitor his workload back from injury.All reports said Didak has been training the house down this Pre-Season, but has recently sustaining a torn adductor muscle. Will likely miss the whole Nab Cup, but should be right for round 1.

Shane Tuck $350,200

AVG: 71
Sub Effected Games: 4
Sub Scores: 35, 31, 52, 51
Not including sub scores AVG: 90
Highest: 112 Lowest: 66

Tuck seems to get overlooked a fair bit by Hardwick, who is all about injecting youth in the Richmond line up. Tuck is someone who flies under the radar; hisconsistency is evident from his career average of 88. Tucks best season in dream team came in 2010 when he averaged 96. Priced at $350,200, Tuck is someone who like Lenny Hayes represents good value. If he was guaranteed more games this year than the 10 he played in 2011, then he could be a great stepping stone to a premium.

Nick Malceski $329,300

AVG:66
Sub Affected Games: 2
Sub Scores: 9, 25
Not including sub scores AVG:77
Highest:101Lowest: 51

Malceski has a history with his knees, we all know that. But when fit this guy is as good as any rebounding defender in the comp. When Tadgh Kennelly was absent from the swans team in 2010 Malceski averaged 86 and played the most games in a season for his career(24). I think Malceski should be able to mirror his 2010 average, as he is given greater responsibility.

Up and Comers

Andrew Gaff $322,900

AVG: 65
Sub Affected Games: 5
Sub Scores:53, 36, 48, 21, 29
Not including sub scores AVG: 81
Highest: 104 Lowest:37

Gaff, who was given the name Kermit by his teammates, could be seen as a promoter for the vest. Gaff wore the substitute on 5 occasions before going back to the WAFL to regain some match fitness. When returning to the Eagles line up in round 17, we saw what Gaff was capable of doing. In a purple patch from round 17-23 he averaged a whopping 104, making him great “Smokey” in 2012. Provided he can stay away from the vest.

Brad Ebert$308,100

AVG:62
Sub Affected Games: 5
Sub Scores: 34, 32, 30, 35, 47
Not including sub scores AVG: 74
Highest: 116 Lowest: 35

Brad Ebert too was given his fair share of opportunities as the substitute for the Eagles in 2011. But now finds a new home at Port Adelaide and possibly an increase role in the midfield. In 2010 Ebert averaged 81 playing mainly in the midfield, due to injuries hitting a lot of the experienced Eagles midfielders. But last year Ebert was forced to play the majority of his games on the HFF, along with doing a few run with roles. If he can become a predominant mid for Port, I would expect his average to go back towards 2010 standards and beyond.  But in saying that, he is playing for Port…

Kieren Jack $387,400

AVG: 78
Sub Affected Games: 2
Sub Scores: 50, 23
Not including sub scores AVG:  84
Highest: 123 Lowest: 53

Jack showed a lot of potential in 2010 with an average of 90, despite being known for his tagging roles. Jack was averaging 94 up until round 5 in 2011, before he got an ankle injury that kept him out for over a month. He returned for a patch from round 12-14 before taking a further week off as he re-injuring his ankle. Jack then came back again in round 16 and saw out the season without any more ankle problems, but didn’t get back to the sort of form from earlier in the year.

Allen Christensen $338,800

AVG:69
Sub Affected Games: 6
Sub Scores: 28, 50, 43, 23, 76, 30
Not including sub scores AVG:  85
Highest: 120Lowest: 47

There has been a lot of talk about Christensen so far this Pre Season. He’s been given FWD eligibility this year and looks a good buy as a mid pricer for $338,800.  Christensen had four 100+ games in 2011 and showed plenty of ability as he notched up 76 when coming on as a sub just before 3qt against Melbourne. Varcoes missing the first few rounds due to injury should see Christensen stake his claim for extended midfield time early on in 2012.

Reece Conca $274,100

AVG: 55
Sub Affected Games:
3
Sub Scores: 27, 50, 8
Not including sub scores AVG:  61
Highest: 99 Lowest:30

The Tigers pick 6 in the 2010 nab draft spent most of his 2011 season in the backline. But it is said now that Conca can expect to be given more opportunities in the midfield in 2012, which now makes him a tempting buy, since he has now become a defender in dream team. Conca had a purple patch from round 4-9 where he averaged 22.6 disposals and 83 in dream team. Given that the backline can offer a lower scoring output than other positions, he could be a cheap buy and push towards 75-80.

Third Year Breakout?

Mitchell Banner $351,700

AVG:71
Sub Affected Games:2
Sub Scores: 6, 28
Not including sub scores AVG:86
Highest: 122Lowest: 62

Who? Mitchell Banner is a name that most wouldn’t have even heard of, let alone be someone that people had considered picking up. Banner has shown glimpses of becoming DT relevant throughout 2010 and 2011, and applies for the 3rd year breakout rule. If he can cement a spot in the Port line up, could be a good pick. But with the inclusion of Brad Ebert and Chad Wingard, Banners already shaky position in the line-up looks in jeopardy.

Ben Cunnington $260, 000

AVG: 53
Sub Affected Games: 4
Sub Scores:34, 19, 29, 33
Not including sub scores AVG:  61
Highest: 101Lowest: 30

Ben Cunnington too applies for the 3rd year breakout rule in 2012, but hasn’t put up any big numbers except for his only ton (101) which came in the last round of 2011. Cunnington averaged 13 disposals, 6 tackles, but only 1 mark per game in 2011. He has been training hard so far this pre-season and has added a few kilograms to his frame. If he can find more outside ball and be a link in play, he is sure to lift his average at least 70 this year.

Jake Melksham $344,400

AVG: 69
Sub Affected Games: 3
Sub Scores: 19, 58, 42
Not including sub scores AVG:  74
Highest: 117 Lowest: 33

Melksham had 11 scores over 75 and 4 scores over 100 in 2011. Entering his third year, he has added some extra weight and looks ready to take the next step. Though he wasn’t effected greatly by the sub vest in 2011, it’s important to note that his average without the vest affected games last year, was a 15 point increase to his average in 2010 (59). If he can add a further 15 points to his average in 2012 he looks a good buy averaging around 90.

The only positive about these guys seeing the substitute vest on a regular basis in 2011. Is that they are now under-priced going into 2012, and have the ability to become potential bargains.  Sure they represent an element of risk, but that’s what this game is about.

Best of luck to all in 2012!

Twitter: @BILLZ_17

32 Comments

  • Some interesting names up there!

  • Shane Tuck interests me a lot. Especially as Barlow looks like an upgrade now.. I just wish the poor guy would get the game time he deserves!! (((Hardwick is a twit!)))

    • I could never figure out the Tuck thing.

      A mate who’s a Tigers man recons when Tuck disposes of the ball, he does exactly that! Get’s rid of it. hahahahahah

      Tuck’s kicking disposal has hovered around 60% for three years. It was 67% last year, 76% when combined with handballs , so for and ‘in and under’ man, is that so bad?

      • He should have gone to GWS with Old MacDonald and played on like Michael

  • Thanks man, nice to see the sub affected average and the normal average together. Helping me and my coffee figure things out.

    Anyone going Gaff might want to check out Kane Lucas in that Liberal party team, Carlton.

    Conca and Christensen keep coming up.

    Conca is more of a stretch I think but Christensen must have had a slight injury or he would have seen NAB cub ‘lunch time’ action. Hopefully, Christensen plays from here on in.

    There does not seem to be as many solid back rooks this year. Heppell, Duigan, and Stanley were all locks at this stage of the year in 11′.

    So, I think I might have to cough up the extra $$ for Clarke, Bower and maybe Conca. At least then I would have a freaking backline. Maybe!

    Clarke has had a hammie and Conca isn’t playing any more NAB cup!

    Is DT a woman?????

    • iv currently got bower in my backline, but i wonder if injuries aside can he retain a spot in the 22 for carlton? i dont know much about the club so if someone could give me some insight to his job security it would be much appreciated :D

  • AC is the only one on here I’d give thought about. Unique article.

    • He’s going to have to score big if he wants to get into my team in the preseason.

  • I think this is a very important thing to look at this year. If you find a player that you think is underpriced, check if they were the sub much last year. The only problem for these guys is most are not really in the top 10 at their club, so are a chance to be subs again. Even someone like Christensen (I know he’s a gun), who is a perfect sub player, may still get a green vest a few times this year. Picking them is a risk/reward proposition.

    • I would have thought that picking any player would be risk/reward proposition…

  • Cunnington is an interesting one. Was an absolute ball magnet at under 18’s and has now had a couple of years to bulk up at senior level.

    Loves a tackle and North are going to be improvers this season you would think (though that is being said about everyone atm so if you believe the hype it is going to be a very tough comp this year apart from Port and GWS).

  • Great read, Kieran Jack is a star & will average 100. Unfortunately not many of us (include myself) have the balls to pick him.
    BTW there is no such thing as a 3rd year breakout rule. Think about how sad and pathetic it sounds “3rd year break out rule”

  • I reckon Malceski could be a great unique pick up for your mid-price defender, he has had a full off season to get the leg right and has had an uninterrupted pre-season so far. I popped down to see them at training in Sydney last week (easy when you live in Randwick) and he was just thumping 50 stabs passes onto the chest of his team mates, awesome to watch one of the best left foot kicks in the game at it’s best.

    Now with Tadhg gone he will probably play a more central half back position and with Rhyce Shaw feeding him from the back he should pick up plenty of marks, also he nearly always kicks the ball so you will be picking up those +6’s at a regular basis.

    I haven’t picked him yet but he is definitely one to keep an eye on in the NAB. $329,300 is pretty pricey for a guy that could snap his leg by kicking a balloon but if he stay’s fit I think he will average around 85-90 like the article suggests which I’d take any day as my 4th-5th defender.

    • Sydney seem to rotate there switch or running defenders, and you don’t know which one it is until game time. One week it’s Malceski, then it’s Matner, next it’s Shaw and now you have Armstrong to throw into the mix. Unfortunately, the numbers are pretty ordinary for Swans defenders who don’t play that role. I would pass for the minute.

  • Anyone (with big balls) tempted by Gaff?

    • no and yes

    • He is in my team at the moment, don’t know if he’ll be there come round 1.

    • At his price i’d be looking for him to be more of a keeper than a cash cow so you’d want him to average 90 at least, i’m put off him for that reason only.
      IMO he will start on the wing and have space a plenty so will be racking up the +6’s linking through the middle which will see that 90 come easy. Of course he could still see the vest and that would screw everyone who picked him, i don’t have the balls to risk it…

    • I have him but I have small balls so you are not that interested in what I think I guess…

  • I like the idea of AC. Just wish we could get to see him play! Missing again this week.

  • Ebert is tempting me a lot, looked good in the tri series games, gonna monitor him over the rest of nab cup. Some good names who could go alright on that list :)

  • Very intersting read. Haven’t seen Jack mentioned much this year. Very hard not to go the super premium guys with the rookie priced guys esp with guys like old Mcdonald and Hogan. This artcle made my bus trip after work much more entertaining :-)

    • Yeah I think Jack is a bit of a forgotten man in a way, I seem to remember some people jumping on him as a unique premium at the start of last year after his amazing 2010 season, unfortunately like Carrots he was given the tagging role last year, could be a great pick up… but im not brave enough.

      • I really like the way he plays. At the moment i have Pendles, Boyd, Ablett and either Swan/Selwood as the midfielders. It just reeks of ‘same old same old’. If I was brave enough I would go someone like Jack but have chickened out. If only we had 7 playing midfielders lol.

        I have only really gone unique in the backline this year. Went unique last year in the mids and struggled early. Was really solid for many years before last year and want to get back to that standard.

        He is tempting though especially if he gets some scores through the NAB Cup.

  • Beams. No, not that one, the other one. Started round 1 last year, but only managed five games. Was sub affected in two of them. Had a pretty decent outing in the first round of the NAB cup, and can find the ball. Priced just above 200k. I’m slightly worried about where Voss seems him in the pecking order though.

  • Mitch Banner should play about 15-20 games for port at half fwd flank

  • Masten for me.

    • +1
      NAB form will decide as I need to take a risk somewhere and he just might be it