Class of 2010 – Defenders

If you are anything like me than you are having a hell of a time trying to nail that defensive line this year (Screw you Demetriou and your stupid round 13 BYE). The likes of Goddard, Scotland, Carrazzo, Deledio, Suckling and Birchall all share the bye (6 of the top 10 averaging defenders from last year) so I think that we are all trying to find some different options and some value.

After the half decent games of both Hargreave and Duffman over the weekend, it got me thinking…there is a whole bunch of players that were super stars in 2010 and for varying reasons had an ordinary (in some cases very ordinary 2011).

So time to look at some analysis of the darlings of yesteryear..When the chip kick was king, when the +6 was a common occurrence, When Lake scored 192!!

I want to cast our minds back to those glory days of 2010 and have highlighted 8 defenders that were very solid, if not great performers and due to last season’s form come with a hefty discount into 2012. Are they worth the gamble?

I have looked into those that had significant drops, averaged 80 or over in 2010 (Hargrave the exception) and are currently priced under 400k.

Let’s start with the most expensive first:

Andrew (Bomber hates me) Mackie $392,300

Based on 2010 average should be priced: $435,000

 

Ave

Disp

Marks

90+ Games

2011

78.7

19.7

5.5

6

2010

87.1

22

6.5

10

Diff

-8.4

-2.3

-1

-4

I like Mackie, he provides an alternative to Enright,doesn’thave the BYE in Rnd 13 and has been around for long enough to show a level of consistency.

Pros:

He is consistent; at worst he is going to give you a high 70 average, has a Rnd 12 BYE, I think he will play more of a link man role down back rolling up to the wing and providing an outside receiver role. Averaged 83 in the last half of the season

Cons:

He is awkwardly priced, for an extra $20-$25k you can get Broughton/Adcock/Heppell/Houli etc. Can he lift his average?

Verdict:

I reckon this might just be his year, second year under Scott. He is currently in my squad.

Jordan (Never trust anyone with 2 first names) Russell $352,400

Based on 2010 average should be priced: $400,00

 

Ave

Disp

Marks

90+ Games

2011

71.3

16.7

4.6

3

2010

80.6

22

6.5

9

Diff

-9.3

-5.3

-1.9

-6

All reports have Russell tearing up the track and had a very good hit out in the recent blues intra club.

Pros:

Ratts likes him and he is highly rated at the club. Was a top 10 draft pick. Can find the pill and is a good rebounder.

Cons:

His disposal is hit and miss (who cares for DT) but can mean that he may be scrutinized as a link man as they look more at a Yarran type. Last played in rnd 16 last year.

Verdict:

With Yarran and Scotland playing the sweeping role down back, where does he fit. If there was ever a year for him to stand up it is 2012.

Paul (Scream at computer) Duffield $347,200

Based on 2010 average should be priced: $440,000

 

Ave

Disp

Marks

90+ Games

2011

70.2

16.9

3.5

5

2010

88.7

21

5.5

10

Diff

-18.5

-4.1

-2

-5

Ahhh… the Duffman…what the hell happened? He is right up with Broughts on the love to hate scale. Showed good signs on the weekend.

Pros:

We all know that he can do it. He was bloody good in 2010. New Coach…does this make it a positive…maybe. Doesntshare the Bye of Death!

Cons:

Duffman..WTF happened last year. You’re the Duffman!. Has he lost his Mojo?

Verdict:

It is a brave coach that picks him. But with great risk goes great reward. Pass for mine.

Sam (Say Cheese) Gilbert $345,600

Based on 2010 average should be priced: $440,000

 

Ave

Disp

Marks

90+ Games

2011

68.9

17.1

4.8

4

2010

88.6

22

7.5

13

Diff

-19.7

-4.9

-2.7

-9

Apart from Lake, perhaps the most dramatic drop off last year. Certainly a few coaches were burnt…badly.

Pros:

The kid can play, he has all of the right DT attributes, New coach may actually realise where he plays his best football.

Cons:

Where do we start..Schoolgirl, Photos etc… Will leave the rest alone, but had a fair bit outside of footy going on. Lyon thought he was a forward…BAP BOW. He plays the same position as Goddard..Who would you pick?

Verdict:

See above…a lot playing in his head that affected him. If you don’t go with Goddard, I reckon he is worth the risk.

Beau (Elastoplast) Waters $338,200

Based on 2010 average should be priced: $435,000

Ave

Disp

Marks

90+ Games

2011

73.4

18

4.8

2

2010

87.5

21

7

9

Diff

-14.1

-3

-2.2

-7

Has been around the scene for awhile and can score but also can get injured.

Pros:

I think we can all remember his last game last year against the eventual premiers, 38 disposals, 11 marks and 140 glorious DT points. Plays the right role in the Eagles back line.

Cons:

Gets a paper cut studying the form guide that can keep him out for 6 weeks. Finds ways of injuring himself.

Verdict:

Started the season slowly and was injured for a large chunk of the year. Worth a chance I reckon, however current nursing a minor elbow injury (yep elbow…don’t ask me how)

Nick (China Knees) Malceski $329,300

Based on 2010 average should be priced: $425,000

 

Ave

Disp

Marks

90+ Games

2011

66.6

14.9

4.3

1

2010

85.6

23

5

10

Diff

-19.0

-8.1

-0.7

-9

Well, where do we start…was a really good player in his prime… but it has past.

Pros:

Beautiful disposal, when he had his own legs, played the sweeper roles for the Swannies.

Cons:

His legs are made of paddle pop sticks. Just not worth the risk. Only played 12 games in 2011

Verdict:

Guess?… I will even give you multiple choice
a) His knees are stable as the Greek economy
b) If he was a horse the curtain would have been drawn
c) Kermit the frog has more chance of standing up on his own

Brian (WTF happened?..) Lake $255,200

Based on 2010 average should be priced: $475,000

 

Ave

Disp

Marks

90+ Games

2011

51.6

11.6

3.4

0

2010

95.1

21

10

14

Diff

-43.5

-9.4

-6.6

-14

The greatest fall from DT grace I think we have seen. This guy made Christina Aguilera look like Mother Teresa…that is how much of a DT Slapper he was.

Pros:

He was the king of the 6+ and invented the 12+, would find space, backed his judgement and got the ball..a lot. He scored 192..yep not a misprint (41 disposals, 22 marks). New coach = new Brian?

Cons:

His passion, mind and ability all went in the blink of an eye. Just don’t know that he could ever get back there.

Verdict:

Could be the greatest buy of the year…on one condition…he changes his name! It worked last time.

Ryan (Remember me…Hello…anyone..) Hargrave $232,700

Based on 2010 average should be priced: $380,000

 

Ave

Disp

Marks

90+ Games

2011

58.8

17.2

3.4

0

2010

76.8

20

6

7

Diff

-18.0

-2.8

-2.6

-7

Had buried Hargrave alongside Josh Drummond as one of those guys that showed a good DT game but never really lived up to what they could have. Then he showed enough on the weekend to start featuring in a few teams.

Pros:

Has been a very consistent defender for the doggies over a number of years. Showed good promise on the weekend. New Coach?

Cons:

Only put 5 games together last year. New Coach?

Verdict:

If his body holds up he will make you money and put some good consistent scores on the board. Doggies are not gonna set the world on fire and the ball will be in their defence half for a fair amount of time. Probably worth a shot.

So in their glory days they could hold their own. To give you an idea on how they compare to today’s premiums.

In 2010 the abovementioned guys averaged between:

  • 20-23 disposals, 6-10 marks and scored over 90, 44% of the time

The class of 2011 (Scotland, Goddard, Deledio, Birchall, Suckling, Enright, Carrazzo) averaged between:

  • 21-26 disposals, 4-7 marks and scored over 90, 51% of the time.

If they get back to their best, I believe that there are definitely some viable options amongst them.

So the question remains, Do you have a spot for any of these guys in your back line? Who are you willing to take the punt on?…

And before anyone raises it…yes I left Broughton out…it was on purpose… I can’t bring myself to type his name again.

Cheers

Rainman

Follow me on Twitter (@robrainbird1)

p.s. Stay tuned later in the week when I focus on the Class of 2010 - Midfielders.

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110 Comments

  1. Lake & Hargrave are my punt for 2012

  2. Cheers rainman, some food for thought there! I had Harves back in 09 and he was gold but too pricey in 2010. Very well priced but turns 31 this year. Im a cats fan and i reckon Mackie could be a great DT’er he’s just a little lazy. His casualness reminds me of Mark Waugh without the class .

    cheers again

  3. Good one Rainman. Certainly something to think about.

    I don’t think we can be too harsh on Lake. Going from hero to zero was obviously the result of his multiple injuries and the consequent loss of form and fitness.

  4. Food for thought. Where do you get the time Rainman? Thanks haeps. I considered Duffers but currently taking a punt on Grimes. I had Hargraves in 2010; is in my team atm. Worth a punt at that price, but I didn’t know he was turning 31. Hmm

  5. That was gold! You are the Rain funny Man!!! Love your stuff mate. Nothing like giggling to yourself at 7am!!
    I’m on the Hargrave train!! All Aboard!!!! If I include Grimes as well that will be enough risk for me.
    Thanks for your work buddy and thanks for the laughs!!!

  6. Fantastic article Rainman – considering Hargrave and Gilbert of these. Question is – Hargrave or Howard? Howard has considerably more upside but Hargrave would have better JS and is cheaper… I can not bring myself to not start with God so Gilbert may miss out on the start of the year…

  7. That is by far the funniest article I’ve ever read on here! Still crying! Rainman you already earnt top brownie points for being an avid blues supporter but now you’ve reached a level of legendism that makes tkol lok like a pleb in a roman skirt! Great read but would have loved you to mention newman. Any thoughts on him getting back to his glory days? think he could be a great smokie but the tiges early draw makes me reluctant to pick any of them. Also have chosen houli over dids. Can’t even remember why I went off dids now, some niggling injury or something I think… anyways is Houli a good call you think? I see plenty of improvement ahead for him in 2012.

    • Thanks Dools :)
      I did consider Newman but decided to limit it to the guys that I am seeing mentioned in teams and all has been pretty quiet on the tigers captain.
      Ahhh the Houli dilemma. He has been in and out if my side a few times. I think if you have the balls do it. After writing the article I think that guys like Gilbert, Russell etc may be nle to produce similar output for around 40k less.
      Problem is that bloody round 13 bye.
      I reckon he is on the verge of something big, but I don’t like the tigers early draw. Maybe if he smashes it I will pick him up post bye.

    • Glory days? 82 is Newman’s highest ever average. If the recruitment of Ellis and Morris were intended to get him further up the field he could definitely improve on that, but to this point in his career he has been a SC specialist.

  8. Nice article. But Beau Waters’ elbow problems should not be news to most – he has had major issues with both elbows since 2008. In fact I know he has had a reco on at least one. He missed a lot of games last year because of an elbow injury. Anyone who goes in as hard as Waters is susceptible to uncommon injuries, though having problems with both elbows suggests there is perhaps something structurally wrong. If he can get past these issues then he may be the best pick up from your list.

  9. Hilarious and insightful article Rainman.
    Thanks for the chuckles and tips.
    Will be very closely watching Lake & Hargrave.
    Cheers

  10. Good article rainman, thanks.

    One of the biggest factors for me is sustained scoring over the years. No we all know Hargrave had a great season in 2010, but apart from that year he hasn’t averaged over 77. Could have been that 2010 was a freak occurrence and now is turning 31 chances of it happening again have reduced.

    Duffman had two good seasons averaging over 87 before 2011.

    Russel has had only 1 seasons over 80, and the rest bar 1 have been under
    72.

    Gilbert had two great seasons over 89 before a bad 2011.

    Malceski when fit averages great. 2 seasons over 96 but alot of injury and poor years in between those.

    And Mackie, probably the pick of the bunch – 4 seasons averaging over 83 with two years over 87 average. And that’s in the last 5 years with only 2011 being a poor points haul.

  11. Lake & Hargrave for me

    or it could just be this OXYCODONE i’m on

  12. Rainman,

    I hope you’re not seriously picking any of these guys, you are after all battling me in a “super league” this year!
    Some advice? Start a spread sheet and follow my team’s progress throughout the year, and I’ll pick you up in my Toyota at season’s end and we can exchange notes ;)

    • Lol TKOL… I almost included your master stroke from last year… Jason “100 kilo” Gram.
      Who knows what I will do… I may just be trolling like your Howard call and also uncovering the next Suckling.
      I look forward to a drive in the Toyota…long drive down to Tassie to pick me up though. ;)

  13. Rainman

    Every one know Kermit is 50 years old

    Seeing Kermit riding a bicycle in the Muppet Movie goes to show what an elite athlete he is.

  14. Before everyone loses their shit at me Im not posting this to get everyones attention outside of the my team thread, just wanted to show what this kind of mid price defensive structure can allow u to do in your team. Ive been waiting for an article like this cause I am seriously toying with the idea of utilising mid priced players in my backline to both free up cash to secure premiums in other areas of the field and to take advantage of the inconsistency of backmen in dt.

    Bascially I agree with rainman in the sense that these mid pricers r worth the risk because premo backs often hav average weeks where they only post scores in the 60-80′s but then boost their average with big hundreds every few weeks. Although their +90 ratio is down on the more expensive players Im gunna back these cheaper guys to post their usual 60-80 week in week out with the occasional hundred thrown in between. The other obvious benefit is that by downgrading a premo u have two mid pricers rather than a premo and a rook which certainly makes upgrading a lot easier(and cheaper) if at least one of those mid pricers stands up and becomes ur 6th or 7th back for the year. Plus the extra cash it frees up for u allows me to buy an extra premo mid who I now wont hav to desperately scamper around to find extra cash for during the season proper.

    Hope that rambling makes some kind of sense cause atm Im pretty happy with how my ‘logic’ allows me to structure my side below (apart from when rd 13 rolls on round haha)

    DEF: Goddard, Deledio, Grimes, Conca, Hargrave, Clarke, Bugg (Ellis, Wilkes)
    MID: Swan, Boyd, Ablett, Selwood, Hayes, Mc Donald (Hogan, Shiel)
    RUCK: Cox, Giles
    FWD: Franklin, Fyfe, Robinson, Martin, Riewoldt, Zorko, Treloar (Cameron, Walsh)

    • midpriced players are fine if you expect they can improve by 20pts over average and more importantly, would become a permanent player at D7/F7 etc. If not, then extra trades to get there.

      Reminder a rookie is worth more this year than last year as the magic number has increase from circa $4,000 to $5,000 per point.

      Clearly having 2 rookies on field and 2 on bench means you are relying on a 50% hit rate for success for onfield success (whilst they increase in value). Using mid priced players can lead to one rookie on field (2 on bench), reducing success rate needed to 33% (for contributing player).

      Offset is whilst you mid is racking up 20-30pts extra a week, by week 9, if you had gone that extra rookie he may be worth $300k (70 pts average but not fully matured) and that the extra 200k in value (assuming purchase price $100k) will generate 40pts a week for balance of season.

      Hare vs Tortoise strategy

      • Shouldn’t you be advising the Prime Minister or something else more on your level?
        You’re talents are wasted in DT!

          • Judging by Julia’s ratings – do you think she takes advice. LOL

            Good to see you firing shots across the bow TKOL and I see your bullish nature is coming to the fore again with talk of winning the car. DTT has plenty of intellect on it, but its the witty comments and sledging that make it worthwhile.

            Hope the injury has healed from last year and you are back on the field, DT is Great, but nothing beats playing football (and yes Simon, the PM does say is am too old to be playing football and spending time on DT!!).

            re my thoughts earlier, just an opinion……….not a respected DT’er like yourself…….yet!

    • I agree with your logic, I’ve been toying with the same idea. There seem to be more sure points in the Forwards and Mids than the Defence. In my personal opinion, the GnR strategy will NOT work this year.

      I like your 5 premium midfielders, I have a very similar structure at the moment but instead of Swan and Heyes I’ve got Mitchell and Van Berlo.

      Rookies are hard to pick at the moment, being so early in preseason, so on that basis I’ve structured a team which has a only 5 rookies playing on the field.

      The expectation is that the mid-priced players gain value and develop to +80pt average but it’s certainly easier said than done.

      Current starting team:
      Scotland, Shaw, Birchall, Hurn, Hargraves, Davis, Bugg,
      Boyd, Ablett, Mitchell, Selwood J, van Berlo, McDonald,
      Leuenberger, Giles,
      Johnson, Franklin, Goodes, Brown, Porplyzia, Tomilinson, Weedon,

      For years I’ve had rookies who get occasional games through the year; realistically there are only (say) half a dozen rookies that make the starting 22 on a weekly basis. Even the new teams like GWS will be rotating players so it’s not an easy pick there too.

      I believe that picking mid priced players who are definite starting 22 players will benefit this year with the shortened benches and bye rounds coming up.

    • that looks like a pretty standard backline,,or atleast one that will be used by alot of teams ,nothing too unusual there mate

  15. Can anyone explain the man love for conca at the moment? How much do you really expect his average to improve by in 2012? he is priced $274,000 this year based on an average of 55. I really don’t think his scores will increase enough to validate selection. Richmond will finish in a similar position to last year…

  16. Great article again Rainman. This year has been awesome reading. The amount of time and the high standard of information you guys put into these articles is amazing.

    Hargraves is the one I will be monitoring for now. I have a spot open for a mid pricer value pick.

  17. Great write up. Loved the one-liners between players names!

  18. Great Write up!

    I think you have made the point that backs just aren’t that consistent, and that each year a dozen fall from av 85-90 to av 70 and a dozen rise from av 70 to av 85-90. Surely, it’s the same with all positions but it seems that backs are just up and down due to the – link man / lock down – shuffle.

    I think that I will go a few risks in the backs, like Grimes, Gilbert or Fluffield. If they get injured I will just jump onto the next Suckling/Heppell/Martin. I hope.

    I am not seeing the Conca wisdom. Sure, if no back rooks start to stand up I might get on, but is he going to be a B6?

    Surely someone could consult the devil and make a deal to get some insight here.

    Cheers.

  19. Surely if Lake was on the road to recovery/confidence he would have played on the weekend? To get whatever match fitness is possible- or am i missing something here?

  20. Lake and Hargrave i’m tossing up between,

    AVOID Jordan Russell seriously if he does play it wont be more than 15 games Carlton’s depth on the HBF’s is to deep for him

  21. Confused – help me choose – Hargrave, Hargraves, Hargreave or Hargreaves. Wish someone would bring out a book with the correct players’ names listed.

  22. Paul Bower …. will he play for the blues?
    Marty Clarke…. will he play for the pies?

  23. Hargrave has to be locked in for me, all he has to do is average 75 and he makes you $150k, and I think he has the potential to go back to his glory days of ’09 and average 90+. You’d be stupid not to consider.

  24. a bit off topic but how bad was israel folau..HE CANT PLAY AT ALL..NOT AT ALL!!!..there should be alot of talk on the footy channel or on here about that situation
    its not as if he pulled a big crowd ,it looked like a sunday league game,heez getting paid heaps when he deserves less than a rookie ,what a joke
    the other bloke at goldcoast can atleast play but this bloke CANT!! ..big bucks and he CANT PLAY!!!
    and i dont mean dt where he managed to score less than zero,,i mean he just CANT PLAY WTF!!

    • Ha ha – the worst part is some spud from the Giants called Nathan Wilson scored -5!

      • We all know it’s about promotion but it still shit’s me to tears as well mate. Imagine looking over in the head of the battle and there is a guy getting a million a year who doesn’t know how to back you up! hahahahahah

      • lol thats probably about what heez getting paid though…lucky big issy isnt on a performance based contract,,or dt score haha
        must be breaking the balls of alot of young kids out there trying to get on a list..shouldnt happen what a joke

        • Agree Tuppy, There’s seriously over 500 AFL players that would have more ‘natural skill and nurtured ability’ but forget it…when footy lost it’s grass roots and had to become commercial there’s still no problem…but when it’s a commercialised product based on individuals dragging in untraditional supporters we have issues.

          What’s next some soccer poof with a ‘big name’ who get’s a mill to exaggerate an already corrupt and absurd sport…

    • There’s something worse than the form of a guy who’s played one game against AFL player, and that’s the ignorance of you guys beating up on an easy target. You’ve clearly never lived as an AFL fan in Western Sydney, wishing that stuff could be done to get the masses there exposed to the best game in Australia (the world). It will take a generation to do it, and these are the first steps. Worth every cent spent.

      It’ll be ironic as well to discover as the season gets underway, how many knockers quietly get KH into their sides. He was exactly the same as Izzy a year ago. By 2013 he’ll be an integral member of the Suns mid-field. There are no guarantees Izzy will make it, but it is worth it, and, by 2014 he just might be pulling in 10+ marks in a fair few games – great leap, and good massive hands.

  25. Going with Watters. Know the circumstances are different this year but loved 2010 when he went from 150K to about 375K

  26. Benny, you’re a breath of fresh air. I thought my sarcasm would go unnoticed. Gadzooks! Mateyman has found a guernsey for the St Kilda coach. My eyes continue to bleed….

  27. Funny stuff there Rainman!
    Aaaaah the backline dilemma…

  28. I hate these byes :(
    if there wasn’t byes my team would be amazing.. but no.

  29. i know this doesnt relate to defenders but im looking for a foward in the low to mid range to play constantley
    any tips?

  30. Clarke pulled a hammy??? When the f**k did that happen!

  31. Please stop making your articles so funny, im getting strange looks from everyone in the office when i burst out laughing when im ‘testing software’

    Bah, who cares! Awesome work, keep it up!

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