Breakout?

Remember 2010… When things were simple?

Vests were something worn by grey haired ladies and trout fisherman.

The substitute rule was a cunning tactic used by wingmen across the country.

The Suns were an NBA team out of Phoenix and Garry Jr was racking up a million possies down at the Cattery.

Most importantly there were two young guys running around the Gabba named Tom Rockliff and Jack Redden. Little did we know that these two would turn out stellar years in 2011…moving them up into the elite category…..or did we?

What can we read in to their 2010 stats?

Can we use this model to predict the next breakouts in 2011?

I think we can… yes be warned, I am only looking at stats, but I believe that there are a lot of parallels between the REDROCK model of 2010, and a few of the young brigade of 2011.

Firstly let’s look at some stats of Red and Rock for 2010.

 

Redden

Rockliff

Games Played (2010)

22

19

Games Played (Career)

32

21

Age

21

21

Disposals

18

23

K/H Ratio

50%

52%

Tackles

5.2

3.3

DT Ave (Full Year)

87

89

DT Ave (1st Half)

69

79

DT Ave (2nd Half)

90

94

Diff in  (1st/2nd)

21

15

Scores over 90

10

10

Scores under 90

12

9

% over 90

45%

53%

Average when under 90

60

69

So key takeouts..

  • Generally in their second full season, with a handful of games in the first year
  • Early 20s
  • Average around 20 Disposals per game
  • DT Average is in the 80’s
  • Kick to handball ratio is around 50%
  • They score over 90..around 45% of the time
  • They finish the second half of the season like a FREIGHT TRAIN

Bearing that in mind, I have looked at the below 5 players based on their 2011 year:

Rory Sloane
Jack Trengove
Luke Shuey
Jack Steven
Jack Ziebell

So do they compare?

Do they follow the 2010 REDROCK model??

Sloane

Trengove

Shuey

Steven

Ziebell

REDROCK

Age

21

21

21

21

21

21

Ave Disp

20

21

20

20

19

21

DT Ave

87

90

84

79

78

88

Ziebell is really the exception, stringing games together over the past 4 years..but injury has curtailed the amount that he has played.

Let’s look closer in 2011….

What are some of the key stats that jump out from the REDROCK model?

How do these Potential Breakout’s(PB’s) align?

Sloane

Trengove

Shuey

Steven

Ziebell

REDROCK 2010

K/H Ratio

50%

52%

65%

56%

63%

50%-52%

Tackles

5

5

4.1

4

5

3.3-5.2

Scores over 90

7

11

8

8

9

10

Scores under 90

11

8

17

13

11

9-12

% Over 90

39%

58%

32%

38%

45%

45%-53%

Ave when under 90

74

68

71

68

60

60-69

The highlight indicates where the PB’s are above the REDROCK 2010 model.

Trengove stands out with scores over 90, 6 of these were over the ton.. 2 more than any other player.  Sloane and Shuey both showed great consistency with the highest numbers when they average less than 90. Ziebell has a good propensity of over 90 scores but bottoms out when he scores under 90 (bear in mind he did don either the green or red vest on 4 occasions across 2011)

Most importantly in 2010, something clicked Mid Season and both Rocky and Redden came home with a storm.. To me this is key… how do the PB’s perform across the year?

Sloane Trengove Shuey Steven Ziebell REDROCK 2010

DT Ave

87

90

84

79

77.8

87-89

First Half

81

87

79.5

77

67.8

69-79

Second Half

91

91

86

82

105.7

90-94

Diff

10

4

6.5

5

37.9

15-21

Kicks

10

11

13

11

12

9-12

First Half

11

11

12

9.2

9.4

7.4-11

Second Half

9

11

14

10

16

10-12.1

Diff

-2

0

2

0.8

6.6

1.1-2.6

Handballs

10

10

7

9

7

9-11

First Half

7

11

8

8.1

5.6

7.2-9.6

Second Half

14

9

7

9.2

8.1

10-12.8

Diff

7

-2

-1

1.1

2.5

3.2

Tackles

5

5

4

4

5

3.3-5.2

First Half

5

4

3.7

4.6

4.6

2.3-5.2

Second Half

5

6

4.4

3.4

5.4

4.2-5.4

Diff

0

2

0.7

-1.2

0.8

0.2-1.9

They all come home with a bang, I think Sloane and Ziebell are most notable. Sloane in that he really changed his kick to handball ratio (maybe modelling a more Scotty Thompson approach) and Ziebell well he just took off (he did have a score of 4 in round 22.. I have excluded this).

So lastly how do I rank them.. .well I use a variety of different metrics and then rank them accordingly…

Sloane Trengove Shuey Steven Ziebell
Over 90s

3

1

5

4

2

Ave under 90

1

3

2

3

5

First Half

2

1

3

4

5

Second Half

2

3

4

5

1

PPTOG

1

3

5

4

2

Ceiling

3

4

2

5

1

Games<90

2

1

4

3

2

VFM

3

2

1

5

4

VFM on Finish

2

5

3

4

1

 
Total

19

23

29

37

23

Rank

1

3

4

5

2

For mine.. I think Sloane and Ziebell both most closely follow the REDROCK 2010 model. (Bear in mind that Ziebell is suspended for the first 2 rounds of 2012)

Does this mean that they deserve a spot in your starting MIDS? Only you can answer that.

Anybody that has spoke/heard/read anything from me knows that I am a big fan of Sloane and am actually gonna take the risk from the start. Those numbers are really juicy and we all know how the Crows draw looks. Sloane, Thompson or NVB are going to be getting some large numbers and I for one am gonna take the risk.

I had Stevens locked at the end of last year… but only under the condition that he was DPP…sadly not this year.

I think Trengove is a good unique if he fits your structure. Shuey is a jet and will probably prove the stats wrong.

So how about you…are you gonna have a crack at the next big BREAKOUT? And if so…who are you targeting?

Rainman

Follow me on twitter @robrainbird1 (aka Rainman)

109 Comments

  • Doh!! What was I meant to say at this point?!@?

  • this is gold, nice rite up Rain

  • There is no set formula for predicting a break out player!!! Every situation is different, there is no set formula, if you start applying a formula you won’t find the breakout player – simple. However there are some key signs to look out for which were touched on in the article. Personally the two break out guys I see this year are Allen Christensen and Trent Cotchin.

    • Sounds a bit contradictory – ‘there’s no formula’ – ‘there are signs’. Yes, nothing’s a certainty, but the research is worth it and does reveal the ‘most likelies’.

      I’m with you on Christensen. No doubt Rainman was just looking at Mids.

      Cotchin could well have been included. His stats would, I imagine, have put him mid-range in this sample, but he could well reach the top-of-the-class in 2012. I’m sure Sloane will do well, but Zee is the big question mark for me – he’s got so much talent, a huge ceiling, but so inconsistent. And this is this is the key to picking the breakout – working out when they will start performing consistently. You go on them a season too early it costs you badly.

    • Benatration, as stated in the article I looked at players that fitted the mould, I.e. similar age, games played average etc… Heck they are all within a couple of cm’s and kg’s of ech other.

      This article is really just testing the waters of some thoughts that had been swimming around in the brain for awhile… It was done purely for my research.. But thought that the community might find it worthwhile. Trust me I could have quite easily sat on the info and kept Sloane as my “hopeful” breakout…but that is not how I roll.

      Anyway hope you got something from it.

      • Well done Rainman! Get article and very interesting reading. Thanks Buddy for sharing your research. Much appreciated!
        Let me share something with you….

        I was in the inner sanctum at the Bulldogs on the weekend and senior staff there believe it will be a bonus if they get a full year out of Lake and Cooney..

        Dont know if thats of any use to you but there it is.

        Thanks a lot again champ!!

        • Thats Great article!

        • Awesome Kev…thanks for the heads up….Lake hasn’t been in my calculations…but bloody hell I am struggling with my back line.. Hmmm maybe some research ;)

          • He is so cheap I really wanted him to come good so I could use the cash else where. Oh well looks like it will be premos and rookies!!

        • Did they mention Hargrave? He is cheaper than Lake and might be worth a look at if fit.

  • GOLDSTEIN, SANDILANDS, MCEVOY, MUMFORD or JACOBS???

  • Another top shelf article Rainman.

    I’ve also been keen on Sloane the whole PS, but can’t fit him in if I have Barlow. That’s my last remaining Mids decision, apart from confirming the Rookies through the NAB.

    It’s handy that Zee doesn’t have a price rise until R5 – gives us a chance to see if he’s going berko & has to brought in.

    Thanks again for your work.

    • I am going to hope a certain mister Porpz can smash some scores out early, make some coin dissapear for my dpp rook in the midfield, and pull a Zieball out of his ass. I wonder how much coin ill need to make it work.

      • I had Fyfe last year!!!!!

        I almost got Rockliff but I @#$%ed up and got Monty instead ahhhhhhhhh

        I am not so game to go for a breakout this year because I am not keen on any of them. I think Sidebottom might, but he’s already $$$.

        McCaffer, Christiansan, Porps, Rohan and my favorites from afar.

  • Good article, definitely something to think about

    I take great pleasure in trying to find the next breakout. I got lucky last year with all off Fyfe, Luenberger, suckling and Rocky which resulted in a top 250 place

    This year I am considering Sloane, Gaff, Gunston in the fwds and even though he is a bit older Hurn. I think now the eagles have better backline players it might release Shannon Hurn onto the wing more with his deadly boot delivering it to the fwds and kicking goals from outside 50.

    • As much as I love Hurn having the ball in his hands (Eagles supporter here), he doesn’t get on the end of it from kicks – he gets a lot of handball receives. Incredibly effective player in real footy, but not a dream teamer. I know a lot of people who have been burnt from him. As for Gaff, I’m debating getting him in my side. A lot of upside, he knows how to find it and the Eagles will look to get him the ball 70-80 out as he is a smart user of the football.

    • mate as an eagles fan i would advise against picking him. He will not consistently score well as he gets tagged often, plus with gaff embley and rosa playing wing plus he isn’t that quick means he will stay in defence.

  • Great article karnt.

    Please no-one pick Shuey, he has been my unique since DT opened this year.

  • ‘The suns WERE a team out of Pheonix’???…if that was a reference to say they arent anymore then youd be wrong :)

    • he means that back then, the suns (to most people) were the nba team from phoenix. now the suns, (to most people on here) are an afl team

      • Thanks JC that is exactly what I meant ;)

        • Ohhh i thought you meant on the lines of Seattle supersonics turning into oklahoma city thunder etc etc ;) thanks for clearing that up gents

    • I am from Phoenix and a Suns fan… Steve Nash is gold! Can I get him into my AFL dream team somehow???

  • I have VB at the moment but after this article im thinking VB to Sloane and the pocket the extra cash

    Thoughts?????

    • VB to Corona sounds like a solid choice

      • VB to Boags even better!!!!!!!!!!!!

      • Corona? id rather finger my own pi.sshole than drink that. try some australian made beers like little creatures, feral or knappstien. support local brewers you fu.ckhead.

        • sheesh, lighten up!

        • yeah u cant drink none of that foreign shit ay. cant trust them foriegners cuz they take our jobs n money n shit ay. seriously, fc dog whisperers, are you a troll or just a f*uckwit? find somewhere else to write this shit please.

        • umm id rather james squire….. real beer. asgood as australia is their top line brewery like cub for example is just shit. And also most of corona becks and heinekin is brewed in australia now, so maybe you shouldnt bash someone without knowing where your beer actually comes from. Did you know VB and Crown are apparently taken from the same barrel? Just different parts of it. (what Ive heard anyway)

      • hahahahaha +2

    • It’s a nice problem to have…. I think nvb is a nice unique and there is no guarantee that Sloane will explode… But I certainly think it is worth the risk.
      Having said that it needs to fit your structure.. Sloane is my Barlow this year, so I probably wouldn’t go for both, but hey whatever floats your boat and more importantly fits your structure, your bye strategy and you’re upgrades. :)

      • Well I do have Barlow, but he is a bit of a maybe now after the freo intra club match.

        I just saw that Sloane is only $30k cheaper than VB anyway, so at this stage i’m sticking with VB as my unique

        • ya cant base picking barlow or not on a intra club match…

          but in saying that (not because of the intra club match) i am considering wether hes worth it… big risk but maybe barlow out… caddy in?

          i want my mids all averaging over 110+… dunno if barlow will do this. he has proven in a short time he can get the high scores… but we dont know what would of happend if he didnt get injurred… lotsa unknowns.
          if he is there to make money and score alright’ish… then maybe i need to look else where??

          or maybe im an idiot… and should just stick with barlow and shut up:-)

      • There’s a lot of potential upside in the Crows mids. The game-style changed late last year (post NC) and some players seasons’ changed in an instant. VB is a glaring example of this. Sloane too -he had a massive preseason last year and looked potential break-out then – but managed to break his thumb and jaw in a game early in the season (and played out the game!), which held him back.
        The best part about these guys is the Crows’ draw… very generous… just wish there was more room in the mids to take more chances on ‘breakout’ players.

  • Zaharakis played 10 games in 09 and 20 in 10 before breaking out last year. So that certainly seems to support your theory.

    • Ingoes..the 3 other players that I considered for this article were Zaha, Sidebum and Dusty Martin..but figured I had done an article on them recently when looking at the dpp mid/fwds.

      Personally I think that one if not all will rocket this year.

  • I am a MASSIVE Sloane fan. but he’s not in my starting 22.

    Any chance we could risk waiting on Sloane until after the bye rounds?

    The Crows do have a better run home… and Sloane is a gun who may get excited about having to fight for a finals berth….?

  • Rainman – based on your input so far I reckon give you the FJ now!

    Great article and has thrown all of my DT plans out the door!

    Keep up the great work.

  • So sick of hearing that Adelaide have an easy draw! All the non VIC teams travel interstate 10-11 times during the season, were the Vic teams only 5 times! And please two Vic teams that both share the same stadium as a home playing each other there is not an away fixture for one of them.

    • +1

    • cha ching

    • What you don’t take into account there willy is that 10 of Adelaide’s 12 games at AAMI will be against interstate teams, which is a significant advantage. Melbourne teams have no such advantage, half of their home games are against teams who use the same stadium.

      Adelaide isn’t even that bad off in terms of travel. Melbourne will actually travel further in 2012 than Adelaide will, and West Coast and Freo will travel 30,000kms more than both of them.

      • “West Coast and Freo will travel 30,000kms more than both of them.”

        and make the least noise about it

        • Zing!
          Although due to the WA guy’s excessive travel, they have an advantage in one way – when every other team comes to them, they tend to suck because they can’t deal with it!

  • I’d finally put to bed the final decision I had to make in the mids, Trengove or Barlow (went with Barlow) and then I read this which reopens the decision and adds Sloane to the mix! Cue logging onto DT straight away to start some more tinkering! Great article though.

    • NAB Cup will reveal all !!!!!!!

    • I would really like to take Trengrove over Hayes or Barlow but just can’t justify it to myself, no matter how die hard a Demons man I am. I do have Grimes so could argue the case to have BOTH captains….NO, be strong….must…not…….hit…..TRADE!

  • Hold up! this is almost exactly the same article as i posted about a month ago!!!!! http://dreamteamtalk.com/2011/12/14/afl-dream-team-2012-breakout-players/

    • Hey Pro…thanks for highlighting this… Wasn’t aware that your article was in existence but it is great to know that we share a similar mindset and after looking at your article, that we draw similar conclusions.

      Amazing what a bit of research can do hey?

      • yeh haha lol, we definately bring up different points to each other. thats all cool aye. its not like your is a carbon copy or anything… :)

        • Thanks for bringing this up as i missed it the first time and it (also) provides some great research data and food for thought. Much appreciated.

      • i take it you to have business statistics at uni (stat)?

  • Wow. We are spoiled for information. You were definitely telling me the truth a week back when you said you had done your research on Sloane. I just wish I could find him a way into my team but that looks unlikely. it’ll be him and Barlow fighting it out for that 4th spot now, so Sloane would have to show me something special to edge barlow out.

    Just wondering if anyone has the ability to go into the archives and find out what both redden and rocky did in the NAB cup last year, just to give a comparison with these players future efforts.

    • Yeah, good point about the NAB cup scores from last year, they would be really handy to determine if the NAB cup is a good indicator for the rest of the year.

    • rockliff – 42 v ess, 28 v stk… how long were the games again? pretty short i think.

      redden no nab scores.. must not have played

    • NAB cup games could probably be found but would be hard pressed to find the challenge games stats as that would give you the best indications given that Brisbane did not progress and the short games are not reasonable data.

      http://league32.wordpress.com/2011/03/17/complete-nab-challenge-statistics-dt/

      A word of warning about stats though:

      Heppell ($132500) – 4 games at 54.25
      Astbury ($197400) – 4 games at 79.50
      Suckling ($212600) – 4 games at 81.25

      Suckling looks a bargain (and he was) but Astbury did not average much less and was cheaper. I failed and got Astbury. Heppell didn’t score well in the NAB but scored a healthy (and consistent) 80 odd average in the regular season.

      For everyones info:

      Rockliff – 5 games at 92.40
      Redden – 2 games at 96
      Shiels – 4 games at 74.25

      • Thanks

        • i think when you go to this link and download the 2011 nab challenge dt results you need to look at the ceiling rather than the average to get an idea of the potential

  • Well done. Everybody has Barlow..and he appears to be well worth it. Sloane gives every indication he will average around 100, he is very tempting instead of Barlow…

  • I am thinking Grimes. The only issue is staying on the park but think he must be due for a change of luck. Expect him to end up as one of the better scoring defenders.

    Again very dependent on remaining fit and playing 20+ games this games.

  • What is VFM?

    • Value for money… Average from last year divided by starting price for 2012. Generally you look at an average of $5000 per point… Anything under that is a bonus.

      To answer your next question vfm on finish looks at average for the last half of the year and divide this into their starting price for this year.

      May or may not mean anything, but I use it to help validate best bang for buck :)

      • Oh, yeah value for money is hugely important IMO. It’s why I tend not to go for the most expensive players from the start of the year. Cheers.

  • Awesome article and if Barlow doesn’t have a good workout on Sunday, I’ll consider Shuey instead as a unique.

  • Hartlett and S.Edwards are due as well…

    I’m thinking more Ziebell and Shuey from those picks….especially ‘the shue’, hes gonna dominate. brownlow within the next few years….go eagles!

  • How do you look at/analyse stats?

    I was thinking of trying to import a FFgenie file into Excel, can’t find those files though.

  • Stirling effort!
    I had Sloane in my DTPRO team last year, and was very impressed!
    FWIW my mids atm are Swan, SMJ (GAJ), Pendles, Montagna, Sloane, and they’re as good as locked.
    For once, I’m sticking to my intuitions ???

    • Eeep, scarily similar..substitute Joey for Lenny and that is my Mids.. I know 5 is greedy but it just feels right. Anything else feels dirty!

      Gotta sort my defense now..doesn’t quite feel right…research time :)

      • “Anything else feels dirty!” is a bloody good way of putting it!
        Oh the times, the times, are chaaaanging!
        Good luck with your def research, you must be seeing names, facts and figures in your sleep! 8O

  • I keep a firm policy of no mid-pricer mids…

  • Two players to have massive breakout years will be Melksham and Colyer at the Dons

  • I have Swan, Pendles, Ablett, Montags and Thompson in the midfield. Sloane will need to kill it in the NAB Cup for me to change from the current line-up. Will only need to upgrade to Selwood for a complete midfield set. It is food for thought though. If Sloane was $50,000 cheaper I think I could be swayed. Awkward price.

  • Outstanding research and article, Rainman. Really enjoying your reads this pre-season.

  • Very good article Rainman
    Don’t listen to the haters mate… it’s a top article and people can take away what they want from it. At the end of the day… I was entained for 15mins, so thanks for your efforts mate.

    The comparisons are very interesting, the fact is… 1/2 or more of those guys will break out this year… but picking the right ones is obviously the toughie. if it was simple to pick… we’d all have the same teams and we’d all be ranked #1.

    Whether there is a formula or not… just take what you want out of it and stop whinging at a guy who has just put together something for you to enjoy.

    Top stuff Rainbirdman!!

  • Great article, thanks. Only midpricer for me is Christensen. Tempted by Shuey but don’t like picking mid pricers in the midfield.

  • Thanks rainman great article.
    You have talked me into Sloane hopefully he goes well in the NAB cup and I have the balls to keep him in my team because right now it’s changing twice a day!
    Right now my mids are: Swan, Pendles, SMJ, Jelwood & Sloane, with Shiel, Mcdonald & Stevens as my “rookies”… pretty intimidating imo hope it works out eh?

  • Guys, once again BIG THANKS for all the feedback. Loving some of the other names that I am seeing come up :)

    My big struggle this year is the back line, so keep an eye out for an article on that sometime soon.

    Always keen to provide info that you guys find useful, so hit me up on twitter or message me if there is anything in particular that you would like me to crunch the numbers on.

    Cheers and happy DTing.

  • eagles fans join this league: 823523

  • I love this sh!t Rainman, it’s awesome. Top stuff.

    To all the naysayers, ignore the stats at your peril. NAB cup analysis helped me pick Shiels and Ward straight up last year. Shiels a keeper (although should’ve traded him prior to the end due to burnout) and Ward was a servicable leapfrog to a mid premo.

    Will be interesting to analyse if other third year breakouts flameout prior to year end like Shiels did.

    Hopefully this year I can avoid dumb@ss mistakes like picking Gamble last year as a hopeful improver.

    • Anyone else tempted like me to think Shiels might just make the leap to super premo this year. God I’m tempted.

      • Agree. As I said with Shiels, he flamed out towards the end of last season. By round 15 he was averaging 111.4, but by DT season end (ie round 24) his average was down to 102.9. This means he averaged 87.9 in his last 8 matches. With another preseason and years experience under his belt, he could go on with the job this year and maintain some good output towards year end.

        Would be interested to hear from a Hawks fan whether this was just burnout or if his roll changed to more of a defensive mindset.

        Anyway, if he performs well in the NAB cup I might have to reward him with a starting spot in my side as a thankyou for his efforts last year.

  • Was burnt badly last year by picking a mid-priced midfielder (Liam Anthony).
    Part of me wants Sloane, the other doesn’t want to be burnt again. NAB cup will reveal all!

  • this really got me thinking if i should get one of these guys into my midfield..
    so which one?
    sloane/shuey and fyfe
    or
    s.thompson and j. brown

  • May or may not help people in this situation, but word out of the eagles camp is that Shuey’s preseason is going that well some of the coaching staff reckon that Shuey will become the best player at the club this year. He’s good, but considering that he’s got to overtake the likes of Cox, Glass, Kerr, Priddis and Kennedy, that’s a huge call.

    If it’s true, he’s a steal at the price.

  • Rainman, thanks mate, really interesting stuff and very much appreciate the effort. Nothing’s a sure fire formula by itself but when you put it all together hopefully we end up picking our teams based on solid reasoning (and intuition) rather than just following the crowd.

    Going for Christ & Sidebum myself, but now mulling Zieball as an upgrade target 3-5 weeks in.

    Thanks again.

  • I’m pretty keen on Shaun Atley.. ($235,000)

  • Ziebel has been in my calculations since last season. obviously wont be starting with him but if i like what i see come rd 5 he may just slot in. Either him or JB

  • @ dog whisperers – corona in the grey carton is brewed in australia you idiot…. learn the facts before you bag foreigners and they’re piss…