Deck of Dream Team 2012: Tony Armstrong

Name: Tony Armstrong
Club: Sydney Swans
Position: Defender
Assistant Coach 2012 Price: $289,700
Bye Round: 12
2011 Average: 73
2011 Games Played: 5
Predicted Average: 87

Why should I pick him? Firstly, let me tell you who this bloke is. Tony Armstrong was the guy who was quarantined with Richard Douglas back in 2009 when the Swine Flu was swooping over Australia ready to kill us all. After surviving this media hyped up bullshit, he played in 2010 knocking up 9 games for the Crows. In these games, Armstrong showed tremendous DT ability scoring 123 (against the Roos), 89 (Hawks) and 73 (Saints).

Towards the end of the 2010 season, Big Tone got a little loosey goosey… he had a few beers jumped in his car and blew 4 times the limit and found himself suspended by the club, oops. This suspension carried over into the 2011 season where he found himself sober and injury free which led to his first appearance late in the season at round 20. In the next 4 games for the Crows he averaged 85 only to injury himself once again in Rd.24 where he had just 26pts at the time.

This guy has great DT scoring ability and will priced at an average of 73 with a discount as he didn’t play many games. I’m certainly considering this guy… under priced backman who can score with ease are just gold. He’s a bargain but can he…

Why shouldn’t I pick him? … stay fit and under control? Yeah, maybe but this guy is a walking injury and DT headache waiting to happen. David Noble, the list manager at the Crows said this when he was traded/swapped for Lewis Johnston (Sydney Swan, now a Crow), “It’s disappointing for us because part of Tony’s development has been us getting him more stable off-field, which has meant he’s been able to deliver more on-field.” Ummm ok… not something I’d like to hear about a DT player I was considering.

So in the past, the Swans have had a history of turning ‘new’ players into DT gods… or have they? Check out some of these numbers I’ve crunched.

Rhyce Shaw averaged 87 (Collingwood 2008) and 86/69/66 (Sydney 2009-11)
Ben McGlynn averaged 85 (Hawthorn 2009) and 86/77 (Sydney 2010/11)
Andrejs Everitt averaged 68 (WBD 2010) and 45 (Sydney 2011)

Marty Mattner avg. 59 (Adelaide 2007) and 79/72 (Sydney 2008/09)
Josh P Kennedy averaged 72 (Hawthorn 2009) and 74/87 (Sydney 2010/11)
Being the exceptions

Deck of DT Rating. JACK – Armstrong comes with a risk. He is under priced and we have no doubt he can seriously play and score, but will his body hold up and will he behave? Personally, I’ll be watching him carefully during the pre-season as backman will be critical this year after the head aches they gave us in 2011. We have to get this right and picking a dude who carries these risks is not ideal.

Twitter follow @CalvinDT to chat & suggest the next player…

47 Comments

  • Great write up! I think I’m going to risk it on T-strong, could be a big season

  • Sorry Calvin, way too risky. This year all picks have to be squeaky clean. Can’t afford club suspensions for bad behavior, let alone injury.

  • Always in the hunt for bargain backmen, and he qualifies as one, I’ll take the risk.

  • Great write up Myth-Buster! (Loved the stats on recycled players.)
    With Kennelly gone, Mattner now 30, and doubts over Malceski, he has to be considered.
    ATM a real 50/50 proposition.

  • I’m taking risks on about 5 players this year and he ain’t going to be one of them
    but nice write up Cal

  • I already have LAke and I am considering Bower. What are the advantages of Armstrong over the other two?

  • I know this is not the right place but I am trying to work out a bye strategy. Trading will help with players with byes in R12 and 13; you trade them down to a player who already had a bye the previous round. That leaves R11:
    Either take a hit or minimise R11 bye players and load up after that. Problem: Lots of cash cows are with GWS who has a bye. It also means that you would reduce GWS players bye selecting rooks from bye rounds 12 and 13.

  • Gonna give this guy a crack this year, found this article that talks about him (in the mitch morton section). Nice smokie in the deck….wasnt expecting him at all

    http://www.bigpondsport.com/burning-questions-for-2012-sydney/tabid/91/newsid/81609/default.aspx

    • It is more likely that speedy former Crow Tony Armstrong will make the biggest impact of the Swans’ latest crop of recycled players. With Tadhg Kennelly now retired and Marty Mattner turning 30 in 2012, Sydney’s stocks of running half-backs need replenishing and Armstrong ticks all the boxes

      Wasn’t in my team or even thought about him , but was looking for someone in the backs around his prices hopefully he can do something over the pre-season and say PICK ME…

      Good write up to btw Calvin

      • I agree, if he is given the opportunity to play that running half back flanker role at Sydney, he’ll score well DT wise. Its probably one of the few positions in their team that players have the opportunity to pick up cheap possessions, because of their lockdown defensive game plan. Even if he is asked to play that role, I think his numbers may drop slightly with the small size of the SCG that doesn’t allow as much of a running game style.

        As for off field demeanours, I don’t think there is anything to be worried about there. He made a stupid mistake, learnt from it and has not put a foot wrong since. Does strike me as being rather casual however. Hope its the same case for the player we traded him for, Lewis Johnston who is rumoured to have had off field issues in the past.

  • This guy is on my radar but before he comes on board I’d really like to know the answer to the following question:

    With the changes to DPP this year can you load DPP players in your Fwd and Back line and have no DPP link in your Mids and still be able to move your DPP players into the midfield if needs be or do you have to have that link in the first place?

    I’m seeing teams with no DPP links in the midfield and if we can do that my team is going to look vastly different to version 1.0!

    • You must have a linked player to utlise the DPP.
      8 forwards who can play in the mids is useless unless you have at least one mid who can play forward.

      • Cheers RL. On the back of that some teams should really look at changing their structures!

        On that note any idea who the best Mid/Fwd and Mid/Def DPPs would be on the cheap?

        • Some people don’t worry about dpp links in the first few rounds and will get them when they need to.

        • Three way trades:
          What Tbetta and charedblack has said is true and you can shift a DEF/MID (Scotland for example) to the mids using the three-way-trade, however the way I see it is who wants to put a solid defender (avg: 95-100) into the mids, when a solid midfielder can average 105-120? All it will do is hurt your scoring potential.

          The way you would want to work it is to start with the better DPP’s in the middle, and then trade out a MID/FWD or MID/DEF cash cash, and switch the better DPP (Eg, D.Martin) into the forward line, and upgrade your mids. As many DPP’s in the mids to begin with would be best best team structure, as this is the difference between picking up Fyfe or Swan. A difference of 20pts per game, or 280pts (if done in round ten) or 560 pts if Swan becomes your captain.

          Players:
          There are a number of players that have MID/FWD and MID/DEF status at rookie prices, but I personally believe that half the reason V.S put them at this status is because they have no idea where they would play. As such neither do we, and downgrading to these players when they finally settle in a team is the safest way to play. But since he is on everyones radar, Zorko could be a good option and Hampton may be good for a few games (depending on preseason), ditto with Treloar.

          • Griffin, you are like a DT scientist. I am really into women, that also makes me social scientist. So, from one scientist to another, cheers.

      • You dont need F/M in your midfield as you can now trade a F/M into the midfield and pick up a new F! So trade a your F/M from your F line into the M and then trade out a mid for a F! Thus the duel position player is used during a trade to even up the team!

      • Not 100% true. You can load up with DEF/MID and FWD/MID DPPs and have them all in the backline and forward line respectively, with no link in the midfield, and it can still be a useful scenario.

        With the new trading rules, you could trade out your midfield cash cow (say, Tom Mitchell, MID only, R12B), then move in Dayne Zorko (MID/FWD, R11B) from your forward line, then do a forward line upgrade – say Tommy Walsh (FWD only, R12B) to someone like Josh Kennedy (FWD only, R11B).

        The above scenario is between something that you would use in between rounds 11 and 12 to minimize donuts. Using DPP you were able to make an upgrade in your forwards using a MID-only bye player.

        So it is still helpful to have DPPs loaded in your DEF and FWD lines – but having having that MID link gives you even more flexibility, namely the ability to cover potential donuts without trading.

  • Nice write up Calvin, Had him penciled in my team for a while now, but he just seems too risky.
    Pass

  • There’s a lot of negatives: slight, injury prone body, bit of a loose unit and this one: its a lot harder to get the footy playing for a team that would rather flip the ball back into a stoppage situation rather than get it out to a loose unit. At times the Crows had microchip malfunctions that caused them to run towards goal (Dangerman’s malfunctioned so badly once that it caused him to fling himself into the goalpost) which meant that Armstrong was the only one Rutten and Co. could pass to. At the Swans, Armstrong will have to fight for the ball a bit more…I wouldn’t expect the same production. Despite this and his price, still on the radar for now.

  • I love Deck of DT…some out there players, like Armstrong get some good exposure. He doesn’t appeal to me, but he may appeal to others. If he pays off you’ll be laughing

    • Ben FC! Have you been hitting the track hard to make a run for the car this year?

      • Hah, can’t believe I just saw this. I’m Ben FC mate, you were in my league last year right?

        And I’ve still got a lot of research to do yet, a LOT of research :)

        • Yeah I was and on this site I value your opinion above all others!!!

          Don’t forget us plebs when you’re driving around in whatever is up for grabs this year!

  • I considered Andrejs Everitt last year (didn’t bite, thank god) and now I’m highly skeptical of any mid-pricer out of the Swans… But if he has a good nab cup, I’ll be forced to give him a look.

    That is one killer mo’ by the way.

  • If he is fit will he be in the starting side for the swans

    • Maybe. I wouldn’t think a lock at this stage, we’re still struggling to find places for Jetta and Rohan, then there’s Parker, Jed Lamb, Morton and TDL. A lot of mediocre players fighting for a few places in our overachieving team. :)

  • My only worry about picking Armstrong is that he is a perfect candidate for the vest. When looking at who Sydney used as the sub this year, they likes to use players who are not only runners but that can also play roles in both defence and midfield. (Malceski, Rohan, Jetta). I can definately see Armstrong being used in a simular role for the Swans next year, so im 50/50 on him at the moment.

    • Pretty close to the money I reckon, Rohan and Jetta already seem to be ahead of him in that role.

      • Can I ask whats up with Malceski? 2010 he was a lock in Sydney’s back 6, one of their prime ball movers from defence, but last year injury struck (?) and fell out of favour? Didnt seem to be getting games even tho he was declared fit? Or was there something else I missed?
        Surely with Kennelly gone Id have him a lock as a HBF??
        Appreciate any insights!

  • I cant find this guy in the team picker?

  • This guy is smokier than an opium den!

    Calvin, I knew it was you writing this article before I ever looked for the author. You love a punt!

    Great number crunching on the players the Swans have recycled mate. I guess it shows how playing better footy doesn’t mean scoring better.

    Never heard of this cat before, but anyone who can rack up points like that when they only make it onto the park once in a blue moon is special.

    He must have talent if he drove for times over and didn’t crash hahahah (i take that back, he is naughty)

    I am going to research this stud instead of pondering the worlds problems. Winning. hahahah

  • Hmmm, can see young Tony riding shotgun with brother Leroy and getting into mischief.
    Too much of a wild ride you would think, pass.

  • There was a lot of talk earlier in this post about using DPP. Even though most will have a number of DPP players in both backs and forwards (ala Goddard, Deledio, Goodes, Didak etc) the point about needing them in the mids is a valid one. Last year I tried to have most of my bench players as DPPs and found this to be of great value as injuries and suspensions and byes started to hit home. In saying this, it was more in the mid to latter part of the season that I concentrated on having this extra flexability , so I would suggest that your initial squad should be the best 30 you can select and look at fine tuning from about round 10 and beyond.

  • I really want to i just cant see myself doing it

  • Didn’t know about his off field issus.
    With that, and his injuries reminds me of a certain Melbourne player named Colin (Not Garland stupid!)

    Although, Sydney do have a good record with recycled players……It’s a tough one

    Watchin him closely during pre season