Dream Team Stock Market – 2011 Review

Welcome to The Dream Team Hangover! The real DTs (delirium tremens) are starting to hit hard now that the fantasy season is over and there is still AFL Finals footy on the go. You are probably still poring over the stats, trawling through all the news and your trade finger is twitching but alas, Dream Team is gone.

Now that the dust has settled on a long and taxing year, let’s review the stock market for one final time before we close the book on season 2011. We’ll analyse the Top 10 investments and a few under-achievers and potential under-priced premiums as we head into the off-season.

Top 10 Stock Performers

Here are the top ten stock performers of 2011, based on the very simple ratio of price increase to starting price to determine return-on-investment and ranked accordingly.

Tendai Mzungu $333,800 ($97,600) UP$236,200 ROI+242%. The year’s most-anticipated rookie provided fantastic late-season cover for 33% of DT coaches, averaging 80ppg. While not Barlow-esque, the Gu’s output was certainly welcome across plenty of FWD lines with the plethora of outs in the past few weeks. Next year’s Nathan Fyfe?

Isaac Smith $302,200 ($92,500) UP$209,700 ROI+226%. In the same vein as Mzungu, Isaac Smith pumped out some massive numbers in the second half of the season and delivered 111 in the DT Grand Final, which would have contributed to many a victory last weekend.

Nick Lower $279,600 ($92,500) UP187,100 ROI+202%. With a points chart looking like a scattergram, Lower provided as many dips as he did peaks, but managed a decent average of 75 and played 19 games this year. He might not be a second-year contender, but he bows out of 2011 with the third-best ROI.

Danny Stanley $320,200 ($106,400) UP$213,800 ROI+200%. He proved himself to be a valuable keeper, with the only mark in Stanley’s end-of-season purple patch being a poor 57 in the DT GF. Playing every game for the Suns this year, his durability was second to none.

Paul Puopolo $275,500 ($92,500) UP$183,000 ROI+197%. Since debuting in R7 and playing every game since, Puopolo has been a steady bench/cover performer. Astute coaches hung on to the Poo for the Granny and it paid off with a handy 86 and a huge 129 the week prior – well played!

Allen Christensen $289,600 ($97,600) UP$192,000 ROI+196%. Another late-season bloomer, Christensen put up some awesome numbers for his coaches and his ROI reflects his output. Another to keep an eye on in the preseason as the Cats look to their young guns.

Matthew Wright $2247,700 ($92,500) UP$179,800 ROI+194%. Though not the most dependable scorer, Wright managed an average of 65 and the odd big number. As a somewhat unique rookie pick, he provided good cover, playing every game since R6.

Jack Darling $262,900 ($92,500) UP$170,400 ROI+184%. Big Darling bookended his season impressively, notching up 60-70s and 88 and 99 to finish off the year. A boon for coaches who hung on to him in the run home!

Shane Savage $274,400 ($97,600) UP$176,800 ROI+181%. Sneaky Savage played 17 games this year and carded big scores of 144, 164 and 128 in the mix. He certainly snuck under the radar and provided fairly steady cover for his coaches.

Luke Breust $255,300 ($92,500) UP$162,800 ROI+176%. Another sneaky rook, Bruest got a start in every Hawks game since R8 and had 90 and 114 in his last two. He would have been handy cover the likes of Buddy, Fyfe, Pavlich and Rioli in those last two rounds.

Under-Achieving Stocks

This list is made up of a select group of DT-relevant players who were among 2010’s high-performance stocks who tumbled this year. The circumstances surrounding the falls from grace for each of these guys are stories of their own, but there may be a few on this list who are likely to provide good value as starters in your 2012 squad, given a full preseason and a pocketful of confidence – your confidence, that is!

Nick Malceski $206,500 ($355,800) DOWN$149,300. From a big comeback in 2010 averaging 85 to an injury-riddled 2011 averaging 66, Eski has had a season to forget. He’s not quite in the fossil category yet and with a full preseason and no knee niggles, he may be a value pickup next season.

Sam Gilbert $251,800 ($387,100) DOWN$135,300. Whether or not Gilbert returns to DT premium greatness really depends on the role he plays next year. A mixed forward/defensive run this year killed his 2010 status as a DEF premo when he averaged 93 ppg, although his poor early season form and off-field shennanigans didn’t help either. He is one of the league’s best rebounding defenders, but will he be back in his favoured role in 2012?

Brad Green $251,100 ($409,000) DOWN$157,900. Green has been a solid FWD pick since 2006, averaging between 86 and 98 each year until this season. The Dees’ poor form can’t be blamed as those previous seasons prove his elite ability, so he’s one to pencil in the fossils list.

Paul Duffield $238,500 ($363,900) DOWN$125,400. Put simply, this has been a massively disappointing season for Duffield, who averaged 87 and 89 in 2010 and 2009, only to crash to a 70 ppg average in 2011. While we’ve come to expect a few random scores from him, he only returned two tons this season and looked lost for most of the time. He’ll need to put a huge preseason in to convince many coaches, so watch carefully…

Alan Didak $283,200 ($411,100) DOWN$127,900. It took almost the whole season for Dids to come up to full match fitness and to find his touch, but he finished off with 84, 92 and 109 in his last three games. Given a strong preseason, I’m backing him as one of 2012’s most popular FWD picks as he will be outstanding value.

Liam Anthony $263,400 ($355,600) DOWN$92,200. 2009’s uber-rookie followed up with a great start to 2010 before wrenching his shoulder. With a good preseason, 2011 looked to be a breakout year, but he struggled to make an impact. He’s a ball magnet and should be on your radar, but monitor his 2012 preseason closely.

Kane Cornes $267,300 ($418,300) DOWN$151,000. Has the game gone past Cornes the Younger? I’m not convinced. His strained relationship with coach Matty Primus was probably a major factor as until this year, Kane has not missed a single game since 2003!! His durability is unquestionable, but whether or not he returns to favour (and big DT scoring) at Alberton remains to be seen. Watch out for any developing news on Kornes over the off-season.

Brian Lake $276,800 ($414,300) DOWN137,500. Not getting his body sorted destroyed Lake’s season, playing just 5 poor games for the Doggies and struggling in the reserves. His average of 51 this year is an incredible drop from his 2010 average of 99. He may be fossilising, but it’s still worth keeping track of him in the off-season and preseason as the Dogs look to rebuild their backline.

Beau Waters $247,200 ($363,500) DOWN$116,300. Pesky, pesky, pesky elbows! If he gets a new pair of them in the off-season, Beau should bounce back in 2012 after a pretty poor showing this season. But seriously, he managed to average 87 in 2010 and if he comes back healthy, fit and firing, he should be on your watch list for next year.

Colin Sylvia $311,700 ($399,500) DOWN$87,800. Colon really went off the boil as the season drew to a close, shattering many coaches who picked him up after R12. We know he can hit the highs and he demonstrated un-Sylvia like consistency through to R12 this year. He has re-signed with the Dees and hopefully that rejuvenates him for next season. Let’s hope he pulls it all together and fulfils that potential in 2012 to cement himself as an elite DT FWD.

Bargain Blue Chips

These stocks are well worth keeping an eye on during preseason. While they haven’t had the best of it this year, they could prove to be bargain blue chips, or at least under-priced stock, in 2012.

Lenny Hayes $448,500. It was sad to see Lenny go down with an ACL injury, but the upside is that his determination and workrate are not likely to diminish during his rehab. He should be tastily discounted next year and, like Dids, will be one of the most-picked under-priced premos in 2012.

David Mundy $307,600. The Dockers rushed Mundy back for the last few games and paid the price, with their gun midfielder written off after his cameo appearance in R22. Until his injury in R12, he was averaging 105 and with his price crashing to the $307k mark this season, he shapes up to be an excellent under-priced unique next year.

Nick Riewoldt $325,100. NRoo’s average this year dipped under 94 for the first season since 2005. He recently rated his knee as a 7 out of 10, which is more realistically a 4 out of 10. Hopefully the knee gets cleaned up and he’s back to his barnstorming best next year, but his off-season and preseason will be telling. Oh, and no more candid camera tomfoolery on the end-of-season trip please Sammy…

Rhys Palmer $236,200. Palmer hasn’t shown much after averaging 87 in his debut year of 2008 and is now better know in DT circles as the man who cut Barlow’s stunning debut 2010 season short by breaking his leg. In the years after his rookie season he’s constantly been the subject of preseason discussions on breakout candidates, but injury and form have dogged him. A fresh start and weightier responsibility at GWS may be what he needs, which makes him a possible smokey unique in 2012.

Tom Scully $261,400. A troublesome knee has derailed Scully’s season and we know this kid is a gun-in-the-making. Look for him to get the body right and regardless of whether he’s a Demon or a Giant next season, at full fitness and with good preseason form, he could be an exciting breakout prospect.

In Review

Personally, I’m kinda happy to see the end of Dream Team 2011. The stop-start nature of the league season with the multi-bye rounds killed it a bit and I’m looking forward to loading up on whichever guns I want next year, without limiting myself to a maximum of two from each team! Like most of you, I’ve taken a valuable lesson or two from this year, the most important of which is to make sure I keep 8 trades (yes, eight!!) for DT Finals after holding 6 finals trades for two years running and being burnt in Grand Finals by teams resting their guns.

Ranting aside though, the 2012 season starts now. With GWS on the poach, tracking the off-season movements and progress of DT-relevant players has already started. Off-season and preseason chatter also provides valuable insight, so listen out for what the coaches have to say. Start drawing up the core of your starting squad now and follow the drafts closely. And of course, try to watch as many preseason games as you can so you can see how 2012’s rooks and 2011’s fallen stocks are shaping up.

It’s been a blast filling in for Aki for the past few weeks and hopefully the Stock Market analysis has been of some benefit to you. I appreciate you taking the time to peruse this information and thanks for all your feedback and criticism. Undoubtedly, the article will be back next year and Aki or myself look forward to bringing you the weekly dose of Stock Market movers, shakers, makers and breakers. Until then, have fun researching and planning – see you in preseason 2012!

On the tweetvine: @TeeTeeDT

 

 

 

 

50 Comments

  • Nice. I know he doesn’t fully fit the model but Liam Shiels should be in some sort of value based article, surely. Okay, he didn’t double in price but he is the prototype of what you want out of a player! He went from 221k at start of the season to Premium (peaking at 450k before the Hawks last bye). That is the guy we are all looking for, especially next year when we will have 4 less trades and 3 less players. As I said, do understand that he might not strictly fit a category.

    Have a great off season and see ya next year!

    • Catchya mate have a great pre season talk soon yeah

    • Sorry for the delayed response Molly. To be honest, I was a bit pressed for time and had to cut out the ‘overachievers’ stock list, which included the likes of Shiels, Suckling and Fyfe. The key to a gun DT squad next year will be to identify and start with one or two of those breakout players – saves trades and bags mucho points!

  • Heppell should get a mention. Almost everyone had him and he went up $193,400. I always thought he’d be a cash cow, but I just couldn’t sell him for magic beans all season.

    • I did the ROIs on DSwallow, Hepp and AKrak but they only returned around 140-150% due to their high starting price. You are right though – if it was based purely on their overall average, Heppell is a standout in DEF.

    • Yeah good point on Heppel we will consider your input next year thanks again for your support mate.

  • Awesome review of the year TeeTee! Thanks for the great info all year, it’s been greatly appreciated :D

    • Hey Philbo you have contribute sweet FA this year mate! perhaps do a little bit more reading and less drinking over the pre season (I think its becoming a major problem) Take it Easy
      Regards
      Skully

  • Good write up mate.
    I’m hoping that next year Beams is a forward and Jack Trengove is a back.. If so they are locks!

    • Good pick there with Beams – fantastic way to come back into the Pies lineup the past few weeks! If he gets a MID/FWD MPP slot next year, lock him in!

      The other interesting one was Harvey making a passing comment on Perth radio that Pav might get some time at halfback next year. DEF/FWD MPP possibility?

      • Freo chucking there best player down back because they know the ball will be down there a shitload.
        FUCKING FREO SLIME. God I hate them there so arrogant

  • Good stuff can I suggest a mederator to get rid of some of the posts next year?
    Cos there has been some fair dinkum FUCKHEADS on here who hare no fuckin idead and these cunts till are allowed to give advice. They cost me a fucking car like seriously I know you no hopers can’t check every post but it needs moderation.
    I will do it if you like next year. Just so it keeps the Dickheads out

  • On a side note why is there no longer any Finals DT??

    Although I was happy to win 2 out of 4 leagues and crack the top 3% in the comp for a PB, surely the bragging rights could continue for those with a real passion for the sport of DT!

    Also a tip of my glass to the lads & (possibly ladies) who took the effort to put the site together. Stumbled across for the 1st time this year and although keep my own cards tight it mostly provided some worthy banter. Always a few knob jockeys granted but I bet they just don’t have anyone else to talk to…

    All the best

  • Wow, lots of options for next year, I may go for heaps of mid pricers! Premiums likes Waters, Duffield and Green killed me, so I’ll have to look deeper! Stanley, Mzungu, Mundy, Lake, Hayes, Barlow, Hurley- all could be the key to success!

  • Goddard Gibbs Deledio Hartlett Grimes

    Pendals Redden Cotchin Stanton Barlow Hayes

    Luenberger Goldstien

    Zaharakis Fyfe Beams <<hopefully Mzungu

    How is that looking for next year?

    • A bit early for that mate, ask in mid-december when u know some prices and DPP’s. I also have a few prototype teams and lists of players already but asking on opinions now is sort of pointless.

    • At this point in time looks great. Probably a different story in 6 months though. Its great to speculate though. Have my own list of ideas. Especially the never agian list.

  • @ theskull

    the only ‘no hoper’ on this website at the moment is you. trolls like you are at the very bottom of society mate. no purpose in life, no friends, no ambitions. just a passionate hatred for the world due to your own shortcomings. pathetic fucks like you don’t deserve access to awesome websites like this one.

    • +1

      and I don’t know if you guys noticed but hes been like this all year!

      (just under the radar)

  • Great write up. I only stumbled on this site this year. My first full season on DT. I learnt lots, had a blast, laughed at a few posts and am now planning my team for next year.
    Good on the DT Talk team for such a great site and good luck all for next year.

    • +1 maccas, after 3 pathetic years of mucking around (mind you i was like 13 and under_) i also found this site this year and managed top 2k which i was extremely happy with, i to am already deep into planning for next years team and hoping to get into top 500 next year

  • It will be good to not have to worry so much about the limit on players from each team due to the bye, however, I did find this year having a more balanced team made up of players from across the board helped me keep my scores up. Every team has an off day, and if you have 5 of their players you have an off day. Spreading them out, I found while one player underperformed, another overperformed.

    Next year despite not having to worry about byes, I will keep my team spread evenly across players from all teams. Well not ALL, a few teams don’t offer much, but most.

  • mid price players I have on my radar for next year are:

    barlow, hayes, hartlett (if plays in defence, lake, waters, didak, mzungu, heppel, higgins(if plays in defence), grimes and porplyzia

    great year everyone hope to see everyone soon.

    • Higgins…have you been a drinkin????

      • Higgins is like some amazing vortex that people fall into all the time. Once you have had Higgins in your team, you never have him again.

        • It was only an idea….. Geez, besides the 5 games he missed and the green vest he got he had a reasonable year.

          But I admit I will find better options for next year.

  • (Blue’s)Murphy… Must have next year?

    Sandilands?… Worth the “curse of the toe” which he made my team have this year?

    Any others must have… Half way through this year I started Pre-pre season for 2012:)

    • Sandi will be interesting next year and definitely on my watch list but I’m worried that his turf toe could be the beginning of the end of his career.

      If you look at Yao Ming he’s a big guy with foot problems that he was never able to overcome and I think foot / toe injuries are exaggerated more for taller / heavier players.

      I got Murphy in my squad for Selwood and he was very consistent but didn’t pump out massive scores. I can only see him, and Carlton, improving over the next few years.

      In terms of guys I’m keeping an eye out for Dylan Shiel is a rook that they reckon has a big wraps on him.

  • anyone sending there squad to arizona

    pretty clever idea of mine wasn’t it

  • Already pumped for DT 2012!

    Thoughts on:
    MUST HAVES (maybes)

    Def: GIBBS, LIDS, GODDARD, SCOTLAND (birchall/suckling? heppell?)
    Mid: SWAN, ROCKLIFFE, HAYES (barlow? redden? mundy? murphy? boyd/pendles/gablett)
    Ruc: SANDI (berger? goldy? h mac? cox?)
    Fwd: BUDDY, FYFE, DIDAK (zaha? cloke? stevie j? gu/i smith?)

    *these are all given they have full pre-seasons

    • Yeah Hamish McIntosh only played the last game and got a 79.

      from memory that was the case with Sam Ried from the Swans who played one game in 2010 for 79 and was priced at 210k so McIntosh could be a great pick up but I don’t reckon he could be a starter on field all season seeing he has only averaged over 80.5 for 1 year which was 2009 where he averaged 90.2 but if you have some spare cash could be great for the bench.

      But there is no use speculating this far out from the season cause anything could happen

      • No use speculating…are you crazy…speculation is great. Without speculation we may as well ignore all afl coverage until february. Dont know about you but I can’t go that long without some DTing. Most of my lunchtimes the last two weeks have been flat out speculating with work mates re 2012. Its great. Arguable worthless but it’s certainly better than what our wives talk about with thier friends.

  • Another big punt here but nobody else has even tocuhed on it.

    Nic Nat 2012 explosion.

    Seriously considering him as 1st ruck, yet my Mummy punt this year didn’t bear fruit at all – traded him out well before his late season spike

    • He’s come along pretty well this season, if there is enough cash left over I will pick him up as my third for cover or as a cow just in case he smashes it. But the rucks are just easier to pick 2 established guns Cox, Sandi Leuie or goldie, Mckevoy, ryder with 2 rookies on the bench that may play and then leave it alone for the season without wasting a trade. Then again I did pretty average this season so I might take some more risks next season and pick based on potential nicknat and ryder in rucks, ballantyne (should get play in the mids according to Lyon), Dahlhaus and dangerfield in fwd line, Gaff, Ziebell, Wells, Hill, savage and shuey in the mids, Heppell and connors down back.

      I have missed a lot of players but you get the drift, all should improve with a couple having massive improvements.