Dream Team Stock Market – R24

Here’s the weekly analysis of the movers and shakers in the Dream Team Stock Market. In the midst of DT Finals, we’ve simplified the format, taking a short-term approach to look at the popular cash cows to offload as well as assessing the challenges thrown up for the week and how we can manage the situation. For the newer players to the wonderful world of DT, this is a relatively simple guide to navigating your way through the few remaining weeks of Dream Team.

After an epic season, the Dream Team Grand Final is upon us! Hopefully the numbers fell your way and you’re playing for glory this weekend. It has been a tense wait so far this week as we hang on every news story, radio interview, tweet, whisper and rumour to find out how the teams are lining up. As the Scout’s motto goes, “Be Prepared,” for the carnage!

It is already turning out to be a nasty week and again the theme of ‘last man standing’ rings true for the Grand Final. The early wrangling started with West Coast tweeting that Dean Cox may be rested with his sore eye and Nathan Fyfe booked in for season-ending shoulder surgery to join the gaggle of injured Dockers on the sidelines. The Hawks are likely to rest up to six players. With Dale Thomas and Nick Lower also sitting out, benches are already being stretched. Due to Essendon having the bye, popular pick Dyson Heppell has to be covered, as well as any other ‘Dons you may have.

For the Grand Final, the stock market is largely irrelevant, so the focus will be on sideways trade movements to the current hot stocks, or in-form players if you prefer. Seriously, if you’re looking at downgrade/upgrade trades this week you’re either flush with premos and aren’t affected by all the ‘outs’, or you’ve left it a bit late to finish off your squad. In either case, you’ll be doing the maths just for this week, rather than looking at stock growth/devaluation or forecast projections.

Alright then, enough rambling – let’s get into it!

The Weekly Wrangle

The carnage continues on to the Dream Team Grand Final, even moreso with the likelihood of one or more of the Top Four teams resting their star players. The following popular DT picks are definitely unavailable this week.

  • Nathan Fyfe $357,500 (31%)
  • Dale Thomas $376,200 (8%)
  • Dyson Heppell $325,900 (45%)
  • Paddy Ryder $352,100 (11%)
  • David Zaharakis 364,600 (9%)

There are two very simple approaches that can be taken when assessing replacements for your ‘outs’ this week. First – you can bring in players to match your opponent’s to minimise the point differential between your teams. Second – you can bring in players who are likely to perform for you this week based on their form and/or their opponent. I much prefer the latter tactic. You have to ask yourself: do I back my trading prowess and charge hard for victory, or do I trade conservatively and hope to eke out a win?

Replacement Defenders

Grant Birchall $324,700. Birch responded to the nay-sayers with a 113 last week, easily outpointing Suckling’s mediocre 64. A high-posession kick-to-kick game against the Suns beckons this week and at this price, he’s a great swap for Heppell.

Robert Murphy $274,000. Murph is not one whom you’d normally consider, but with his classy run-and-carry and the Doggies playing for pride against the Freo reserves, he has a good chance of scoring well this week at a straight swap for Lower.

Jed Adcock $304,600. On the back of 82, 86, 74, 98 and 96 in his last five, it’s Jed’s consistency that appeals, especially at the pointy end of the season. As a straight swap for Heppell, you have a pretty reliable defender to take into battle.

Heath Scotland $393,500. If you can afford it, Scotland is super-consistent and should keep his momentum going. How about a last five of 100, 67, 148, 110 and 106? He should cap off an outstanding year with another typically solid game this weekend.

Replacement Midfielders

Nathan van Berlo $405,900. Since caretaker coach Bickley slotted NVB back in his preferred on-ball role, he has flourished with 143, 126, 102 (vs Geelong), 137 and 120. Along with Swan, Mitchell, Rocky and Redden, he is running hot and would be a fantastic smokey option.

Matt Priddis $406,700. A home game at Patersons against the Crows should be enough to do it for you, but if not, then a last five of 110, 99, 110, 97 and 150 might convince you to bring Priddis in for your GF. As the motor in the Eagles’ engine room, he’ll churn out the points for you all game.

Liam Shiels $364,800. You have to back Shiels for a big score against the Suns this weekend. He piled on 114 when they met at Aurora back in R13 and there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be thereabouts this time around. A swap for Daisy or Zaka too, if you don’t mind.

Replacement Rucks

Shane Mumford 385,500. Mummy is truly up-and-about, dominating his opposing ruckman with a last two of 135 and 146, the latter score being the pasting he handed out to Ben McEvoy. Yes, he’s up against Big Berger next round, but he’s carry hot form and should do well.

Aaron Sandilands $347,300. We were worried about how he’d return from his tetchy toe trauma, but Sandi has shown his class with 101, 96 and 95 in his three games back. At this price, he can come straight in for Paddy and he should have a big day out against the ruckless Doggies.

Replacement Forwards

Shaun Higgins $341,100. Can we remove him from the Never Again list for just this round? When Missy does play, he is fairly consistent and a last five of 82, 95, 102, 89 and 78 is nothing to laugh at. He should have a good run against a severely compromised Dockers side, as long as he makes it through the warmup unscathed…

Alan Didak $256,400. Dids has strung two good scores of 92 and 109 together and looks to have his touch back. He’s playing for a spot in the ‘Pies finals squad and should come out firing this weekend to frank his form and prove his worth to Micky Malt.

Brad Green $249,800. Risky? Definitely! But he did manage 88 against Port in R17 and may have played himself back into form with a 99 last weekend. Definitely very unique and a smokey chance against fairly weak opposition (Port) this week.

In Review

The Grand Final will be a test of the depth of your squad. Even those of you with two trades may be hit with three or more outs this week by the time the team lists are released tonight, so hopefully you have players on your bench who can contribute. Of course, the lists may also remove some of the replacement options we’ve looked at. Listen out for any whispers about potential late withdrawls as they bear more weight in some of the meaningless games this weekend. As always, make sure that your last trades count toward your victory and an especially huge GOOD LUCK this weekend!

On the tweetvine: @TeeTeeDT

 

 

 

28 Comments

  • FIRST.SUCK IT !!

  • My options, 2 trades left, 169k

    To trade Bartel to Mitchell(Risky?)
    Heppell to Birchall
    or Cox to Mumford

    What two should i do?

    • Bartel to Mitch sounds good as he’s coming off a rest and shouldn’t get the vest – big score coming IMO. Wait until team selections until you pull the trigger on Cox but a lot of teams might not have trades left so Cox to Mundi or Sandi would give you an edge if he’s out.

  • @ Tee Tee

    Thanks for these articles over the year (and Akie as well).

    I’ve always found them interesting and they threw up a few players I hadn’t considered. I’m sure they were essential for those coaches that did not know how to calculate the player valuation projections for themselves.

    I am not sure if you (and / or Akie) plan to continue next year. If you do it might be interesting to add a capital allocation component. From the start of this year I set capital allocation % benchmarks for the various sectors (mids, fwds, rucks, defs) based on how much return (points) I was getting and could continue to expect back from that sector.

    This proved to be quite useful in sending trading signals if I was over or underweight in the various sectors.

    It became obvious early on that everyone had too much capital tied up in their defenders when they were scoring much lower than in previous years – except for the occasional junk fest from the Hawks. Although Goddard tried to reduce the problem by falling so much in value.

    Just an idea. Thanks for articles again.

    • I’m sure the Stock Market article will be back next year, regardless of whether Aki resumes or I come off the bench for him.

      Happy to take your suggestions on board – might take it offline and shoot you a note to get a handle on the nuts’n’bolts of your benchmarking formulae.

      • Maybe we could base something on the Black Scholes option pricing model which shows it is possible to create a hedged position, consisting of a long position in a midfielder and a short position in a defender, whose value will not depend on the price of a forward! Of course a Ruc will throw everything out so some sort of bi-nomial model will need to account for the Joel Tippett’s of the world!

        • If you are looking for some genuine homework …

          I think it would be possible to use Option pricing theory to work out the value of a trade …. and therefore a formula to estimate whether a trade is justifiable or not, and further how much the relative prices of the traded players would have to move to make it a justifiable trade – i.e. executable because you are above the “in the money” threshold.

      • @ Tee Tee

        Sure … Warnie has my email address.

        It might also be useful to look at the final allocation mix of the Top 10 teams.

        Does anyone know if the Rankings and Team search functions are still accessible after the end of the DT season?

  • A side note:

    If anyone needs a bit of a chuckle …. have a look at TKOL’s final team.

    “The Kings of Leon” current ranking 3,700.

    No Swan, No Ablett. His best 22 probably includes Jack Riewoldt, Rawlings, Gilbert, Gram and Z.Smith.

    Total team value only $10.3M.

    It looks like he got desperate and went for a whole lot of Hail Mary trades to back up his trash talk … blew himself up in the process.

    • Yes he is shit. However at the current time of writing this he out ranks the colonel. So it will be an all out race for the biggest spud between those 2. lowest ranked player takes all the glory for the biggest spud and the biggest fuckhead. Cant wait.

  • Can I ask tipping questions here? Leading the comp at work and need to come home with a wet sail.

    Sunday will make or break me.

    Port or Melbz?
    Roos or Tigers?

    $600 riding on this

    • port for the first one
      Draw for the second one
      Tip brisbane and adelaide as the 2 upsets

      • Nah this is the last round I should be going for upsets considering I lead the comp.

        • Melb and Roos are the consensus picks

          Adelaide could be a roughie but not my pick.

          Carlton vs Saints could be another one that determines winners of tipping comps.

          Could final list of games, last few weeks have seen a lack of unique tipping.

          • Was thinkining Butcher might tear Melb a new one though they do have Frawley in pretty good form.

  • There’s gonna be carnage at the Hawks – 8 new ins!!!!

  • Petterd good unique? Scored 123 on Port last time

  • Oh my God ! Look at all the rested Hawks! AHHHHHHHHHH!!!

  • Guys,

    I know it’s early but I’m putting together an ultra competitive league aiming for top spot next year. To qualify you must finish inside top 1000 national ranking. Please drop me an email with your team name and national ranking to fabric1982@gmail.com. I will verify ranking on the AFL website (after round 24) and group email the league code once DT 2012 opens up.

    I will close it once first 15 finishers inside 1000 email through (I already have 3 including myself).

    My team is DarkSwan 234 ranking.

    Cheers

  • who to trade zaha to, 1 trade and 27 200 in the bank