Dream Team Stock Market – R23

Here’s the weekly analysis of the movers and shakers in the Dream Team Stock Market. In the midst of DT Finals, we’ve simplified the format, taking a short-term approach to look at the popular cash cows to offload as well as assessing the challenges thrown up for the week and how we can manage the situation. For the newer players to the wonderful world of DT, this is a relatively simple guide to navigating your way through the few remaining weeks of Dream Team.

Congrats to those of you who survived another week and commiserations to those of you who didn’t. Scores were a bit skewed last weekend, with a few guns massively underperforming when they were needed the most. Late withdrawls of usually dependable cover were also a factor.

The theme of blowouts in AFL matches looked set to continue, but cellar dwellers Port managed to post a semi-respectable margin as did the Suns. It will be an intriguing last couple of rounds, with the bottom end of the Eight being fairly open after the Swans and Kangas both got up.

The content of this article has been pretty fluid over the past couple of weeks and it’s streamlined even further this week with the The Watchlist being absorbed into The Weekly Wrangle due to the obvious overlap of players we might be considering as replacements. The unfortunately reality is that now that we’re this deep into DT Finals, long-term value movements and falling stocks aren’t going to help us much. It’s much more appropriate to assess the options available for the current week to get us through the next round!

The Wrangle this week grapples with our Blues guns having a rest, the onset of the Freo flu and suspended players. To be honest, there is no easy answer to this week’s carnage and these ‘outs’ are likely to decimate many Dream Teams, hurting even those coaches who kept two trades for sideways moves this round. The only consolation is that we have been given a bit of notice and we know what to expect. It will come down to your depth and hopefully you can minimise the damage to field a donut-less 22.

Sell, Sell, Sell

If you’re in the enviable position of not scrambling for cover and have the luxury to trade down-plus-up this week, these particular stocks have matured and are ready to sell this week if you don’t need them to cover any missing guns.

Jeremy Howe $216,500 DOWN$3,700 (UP$124,000) BE72. Getting subbed off after a measly 2 last weekend has Howe’s value plateauing this week, with a projected fall of $4,100 next week. Whether he’ll bounce back this round is the big question, that is, if he is selected.

  • Stock Tip: A good $124,000 earner if you trade him out this week.

Ben Jacobs $215,800 DOWN$11,200 (UP$115,300) BE74. Jacobs has been turning out semi-regular 50s-60s, but a last of 29 has his chart heading on a steady downward trend. His value is projected to fall $5,500 next week. He has been somewhat reliable though, and his DEF/MID DPP flexibility is a bonus.

  • Stock Tip: Offload him this week and you gain a tidy $115,300.

The Weekly Wrangle

I think a more apt heading for this section is The Weekly Carnage as we take stock of the outs this week that are likely to hurt most coaches. I hazard a guess that most will have at least three of those eight popular picks and a few will have four or more.

  • Bryce Gibbs $438,100 (54%)
  • Heath Scotland $393,500 (14%)
  • Chris Judd $396,100 (26%)
  • Marc Murphy $391,700 (13%)
  • Andrew Carazzo $337,700 (8%)
  • Matthew Pavlich $351,000 (37%) – out with season-ending hip surgery
  • Greg Broughton $320,400 (11%)
  • Colin Sylvia $311,700 (19%) – out with season-ending suspension

There are basically two approaches that we can take to manage this situation, assuming that we have saved two trades for this week. If you have two Carlton players plus Pav and Sylvia, the first option is to sideways swap two Blues premos for two of equivalent value. The second is to LTI-trade Pav and Colon. The second option is preferable as it gives you the advantage of bringing your two Blues guns back next week as long as you have dependable cover. Of course, how you match up against your opponent will determine which approach you take.

Replacement Defenders

Corey Enright $353,500 (DOWN$27,800) BE38. Enright has been a mainstay for Dream Teamers for years now and this season is no exception, albeit one filled with more highs and lows than desirable. 22% of coaches held on to him through the Cats’ bye last week. His last two are Sydney (Skilled) and Collingwood (MCG) whom he had 88 and 74 against previously this year.

Nathan Bock $349,200 UP$12,000 (UP$23,100) BE78. The form defender of the past few weeks, Bock has a last five of 92, 103, 108, 110 and 55 (against the Pies). He’s reliable and has Melbourne and Hawthorn to finish off the year.

Grant Birchall $310,600 DOWN$3,500 (DOWN$10,700) BE67. He’s not quite the Suckling, but he’s carded 129 against the Bulldogs and 101 against the Suns already this season, whom the Hawks have again in the next fortnight. At his current price, he’s pretty good value considering what he could return for your team.

Replacement Midfielders

Michael Barlow $388,500 UP$3,100 (DOWN$67,700) BE98. Barlow’s last score of 88 was against the flow when North Melbourne shredded Freo, which shows that he’ll still fight hard to post a decent score for you. With fellow Dockers falling in a heap around him, he’ll get plenty of the ball in the next two games.

Scott Thompson $411,600 $23,600 ($13,300) BE97. Thommo’s huge 151 would have got quite a few coaches through last weekend’s knockout matches (sorry Warnie and TBetta!). While he can be a tad frustrating with the odd quiet game, he does have a home game this round against Richmond, making him a pretty tempting proposition.

Jack Redden $427,500 UP$3,000 (UP$97,900) BE99. The Redden & Rockliff Combo will be a popular pairing next season, with the young guns absolutely carving it up this year. How about a last ten of 117, 118, 111, 119, 93, 130, 129, 112, 118 and 109?!? At only 3% ownership and boasting a superb average of 110, Jack could carry you to a Grand Final triumph next week.

Liam Shiels $372,400 UP$2,000 (UP$150,900) BE97. With a high ceiling and a great run against the Doggies and the Suns, whom he has already had 122 and 114 against respectively, Shiels should be on your radar. There’s no doubting that he’s likely to put some big numbers up in the next couple of weeks.

Dale Thomas $376,900 UP$900 (DOWN$18,700) BE83. Daisy has a depleted Freo at Petersons and Geelong at the G and should put a couple of good scores on the board. Having rested for a few weeks already earlier this season, he should play out the DT season.

Replacement Forwards

Forward ranks are a bit thin as most will already have a combination of Buddy, Goodes, ROK, Fyfe, StevieJ and Chappy. Looking past the usual guns, we have a few who might just bring home the bacon for you.

Cyril Rioli $345,200 UP$13,800 (DOWN$12,100) BE36. Ok, ok, enough about the Hawks nice run home. In short, Cyril should rack ‘em up for you if you decide to bring him in this week.

Mark LeCras $322,800 DOWN$2,400 (UP$7,000) BE86. Frenchie has Brissie and Adelaide to come and is certainly that bit unique. Though a bit random with his scoring at times, his last five have been 90, 76, 85, 72 and 118, which are pretty respectable from this enigma.

Travis Cloke $380,200 UP$6,100 (UP$26,200) BE97. Feeling lucky? Then Cloke could be your guy! We normally stay well away from key power forwards, but he can pump out some big numbers. His last five are 134, 66, 115, 83 and 119, which highlight his ups-and-downs, so consider with care…

In Review

It will be a tough, tough, tough weekend ahead for all who made it through last week. DT Finals are once again proving to be a war of attrition and a big dose of luck is required as benches will be stretched to the limit. Make sure you aren’t going to cop a donut – you don’t want to go down due to missing one or two if you have trades you can use to bring in a replacement or two. As usual, make sure that each trade counts and a massive GOOD LUCK this weekend!

On the tweetvine: @TeeTeeDT

 

 

 

63 Comments

  • Lecras as a point of difference or rioli to counter my opponent? Great write up btw

    • Depends….
      If you take that match up out do you think your more likely to win or loose. If its win then get rioli, if its loose get lecras

    • Didak for me I think.

      It’s risky but that will just make the weekend that much more enjoyable. Kind of like putting $500 on ‘Black’ at the Roulette table!!!

  • Got Trades buys HAWKS – games against Dogs & Suns there sure to rake it in – Birchall, Suck, Frank, Shiels, Hodge & Rioli.

    Ranked 1 in DT points this year – to me they are as safe as Collingwood pulling up stumps at qtr time tomorrow night

    • If I was Alistair Clarkson I’d be thinking it’d be a nice time to rest some of my key players.

  • Who are the heavy taggers from Melbourne?

  • These last trades are so crucial. My options are:
    Lower to Enright – Enright has been inconsistent and i might need Lower if I get to the Granny
    Poo to Birchall – Birchall’s form has been below average of late, but easy fixtures. Will he get rested??
    Or Sylvia to Cloke – Rollcoaster. Will he get rested too?

    Given all the possible permutations I think luck will play a bigger part than anything else.

  • I’ve got the money to upgrade my 7th defender … who should I pick out of Suckling, Enright and Bock? (I have all the other obvious ones)

  • what about Ricky Petterd for FWD? be a good replacement for sylvia seeing as he plays GCS and Port?

    He got 125 against port this year already…

  • Pendles got on the plane to Perth today – you beauty!!!

  • This porbably cant happen but I will ask anyway, Can I sell two injured players to get cash for my one trade that I have left?

  • Can someone confirm if next season the league comp is expending to 18. I have heard this might be the case?

  • NEED ADVICE:

    delido, fisher, suckling, adcock, lower, pedersen, howard (gibbs*, duigan*, hibberd*)
    swan, boyd, mitchell, pav*, bartel, hodge (sylvia*, callinan, irons*)
    cox, sandi (smith, bailey)
    fyfe, johnston, goodes, chappy, n.riewoldt, mzungu, prestia (howe, richardson, gordon)

    What should i do?

  • What is everyones thoughts on Didak as a replacement for Sylvia. Didak has been nursed back to good form and looks like he should build running into the finals, not to mention bargain price.

    My thinking is also that you can use the money from the trade to sideways underperforming premiums for me montagna to Ablett/rockliff/thompson. Rather than expending money and going le cras or rioli.

  • Yeah he’s an excellent option anyway you slice it.

    Bargain of the year.

  • Hey guys. My team at the moment is:

    DEF: Goddard, Fisher, Deledio, Stanley, Heppell*, Suckling, Duffield (Gibbs, Puopolo, Hibberd)

    MID: Swan, Pendelbury, Hodge, Bartel, Montagna, Boyd (Sylvia*, Jacobs, Prestia)

    RUCKS: Cox, McEvoy (Bailey, Derickx)

    FWDS: Franklin, Fyfe, O’Keefe, Goode, Riewoldt, Mzungu, I Smith (Pavlich*, Howe, Callinan)

    * Out of Pavlich, Heppell and Sylvia, which TWO should I trade out. I only have 2 trades :\

    • You’ll still get one game out of Heppell (vs Port) and you get Gibbs back next week with Poo as cover.

      Flick Pav and Sylvia in the FWD line, as they’re finished for the year, maybe one this week and save one trade for next week as your lineup looks pretty strong.

  • Current Team so far:

    Def: God, Lids, Enright, Suckles, Hep C, Fish, Stanley (Gibbs, Poo, Buckley)
    Mids: Swan, Pendles, Boyd, Mitch, Shiels, Krak (Murphy, Jacobs, Prestia)
    Rucs: Cox, Petrie (Smith, Campbell)
    Fwds: Buddy, Fyfe, Goodes, ROK, Chappy, Smith, Gu (Sylvia, Lobbe, Callinan)
    3 trades and $75K left.

    This week: Murphy to Thompson & Sylvia to Rioli
    Next week: Hep C to Birchall.

    Any holes or solid thinking (barring any selection carnage)?

  • Great article Tee Tee ….

    Just wondering why Ablett wasn’t considered in the ‘replacement mids’.

    Cracking game last week, good run of form, against melbourne this week at a breakeven of 80. Only marginally more expensive than Thompson.

    • Tried to include unique-ish players and Ablett is in 33% of teams, but if you haven’t got GAJ, get him in! The likes of Swan, Pendles, Boyd and Mitchell are in the same category.

      • That being said Tee Tee would you go Ablett over Thompson???

        • Lineball, both in good form. Leaning slightly towards GAJ – handles a tag and good against all opposition.

  • Fair point Tee Tee. My apologies … :)

    • No need to apologise mate, happy to field sensible questions – this article runs away with itself sometimes and content has to be culled back so it doesn’t end up being an epic drivel. :-)

  • Great Article Tee Tee,
    need to trade Gibbs thinking Enright/Suckling/Birchall but afraid Hawthorn may rest his players next round, which of these players would you get?
    and also trading Judd I can get any midfielder I want (dont want Ablett,because im facing Nick Maxwell this week) who should I get?

    • Suckers for sure. Redden or Rocky for Judd – they’re both in super form and are unlikely to be rested.

  • Sylvia >> Didak
    Hibberd>>Birchall

    Means I sub Gibbs to the bench, saving him for next week.

    Other option would be
    Gibbs>>Enright/Bock/Birchall anyway
    Sylvia>>Chappy etc

    Thoughts?? I reckon option 1 is better

    • Definitely option 1 – gets ride of two unavailable players and bags you another premo (Suckers) in place of Hibberd and the up-and-about Dids.

  • Wondering if I could get a few opinions here..

    I’ve got 1 trade left and plenty in the bank and can afford someone about 450k when i trade out sylvia who is in my mids. Wondering who i should go:

    GAJ – Not sure.. he’s got a dodgy hammy and GCS don’t have much to play for this season, could be rested?
    Mitchell – Great run home, but already have Buddy, Rioli (just got him in), Shiels, Hodge…
    S. Thompson – Don’t know about his last game.. (Eagles… in the GF).
    Pendles – OK option but my opponents have him.

    Or maybe Redden, Rockliff…?

    Open to suggestions, seriously stuck on this one, can’t make my mind up!

  • Hi – I am more of a reader than a poster, but this is killing me. I need a win in my cash league!!
    Is Pav to Gia a worthy trade? I have 3 left. I have decided against Didak and only 20 k available, will miss out on cloke and stevie j. My only other thought would be a risky brent harvey?
    Lecras, N.Roo, Franklin, Fyfe, Goodes, Rioli, emerg (A.johnson syd).
    I have mzungu in mid bench, I could swap with pav and then downgrade pav to a MPP and hope I make next week to upgrade to a forward gun?

  • Anyone keen for Brad Green?

  • this is my team for this week

    backline: goddard, delideo, fisher, suckling, adcock, poo. bench:gibbs, jacobs, hibberd

    mids: swan, pendles, boyd,ablett, montagna, i smith bench: muzungu, sylvia,callinan

    rucks: cox,bailey bench: zsmith, vardy

    fwds: buddy, chappy, goodes, higginns, jroo, rioli, didak bench: richardson, lynch, howe

    ok i got 208,000 and 2 trades, wat should i do?
    thinkin bailey to cox and then jroo to fyfe? thoughts????

  • I need to get rid of Pav, who would you get in out of Priddis and Thompson?

  • who will score better over last two rounds… Rioli or Chapman?

  • Have the one trade left and need to get sylvia, but i have a fair few options due to DPP.
    The options mainly include uniques due to the <358k situation, but here they are:

    Griffin
    Cross
    Wells
    LeCras
    Embley (not so sure)
    Rischitelli (not so sure)
    Rioli (already have suckling, smith, hodge, mitchell and buddy haha)

    Gian and Harvey maybe interesting options, but it's mainly the ones above. I keep choosing one then changing my mind haha, so if someone wants to express their views it would help :)

  • I need help for my cash league. Same boat as many I guess but unfortunately my options all have their pros and cons. Please let me know if I’m missing someone as another option.

    1 Trade
    $420,900 to spend trading Pav

    Options:

    Didak- Coming into form, injury risk, needs match fitness so unlikely to be rested, Geelong last game.

    Chapman- Consistent, injury risk, could be rested but had recent bye, Collingwood last game.

    Rioli- Inconsistent, injury risk, great last two games, so good he may have a rest DT final against GC, may need to continue playing to remain match fit for real finals.

    No one- Keep trade for final, means I have to play Puopolo or Prestia, predicted score 2,195.

    I’m sure many of you are having the same dilemma and I don’t usually ask others for team selection help but I’m really struggling with this one (maybe because cash is on the line ;). Any help would be really appreciated.

  • .Hey guys in need of some help.

    Team for the week is looking as follows before making any trades with 2 left and 9.8k in the bank:
    Def: Goddard, Deledio, Birchall, Suckling, Broughton, Adcock, Golby (Gibbs, Jacobs, Hibberd)
    Mid: Swan (vc), Pendlebury, Boyd, Dal Santo, Ablett (c), Hodge (Gu (e), Sylvia, Callinan)
    Ruck: Cox Petrie (Lobbe (e), Derickx)
    Forward: Fyfe, Stevie J, Goodes, Buddy, Chappy, Didak, I.Smith (Prestia (e), Rich, J.Tipp)

    Obviously major problem is in defence as I have no confidence in playing Golby given that he will struggle to pull me anything more than 55. WIth Sylvia gone I am quite happy to play Isaac Smith as 7th forward for last 2 with matchups against Dogs and GC. So not really sure on what to do with Col. I could downgrade and then upgrade hibberd but that wipes out all my trades. So I am thinking of one of the folllowing options.

    1. Gibbs>Bock/Enright and could also go Sylvia-Cloke
    2. Mzungu>Gram (as this saves me a trade for carnage next week, avoids playing Golby in defence through dpp plus the fact that Gu is not needed this week)
    3. Sylvia>Doughy (same as above, however, not so sure about Doughty althogh it allows me to keep Gu)

    What are peoples thoughts and are there any other options I could do??

  • Chappy, LeCras, Cloke or Didak?